‘We need to cool a lot of that war rhetoric’, Taiwan’s main concern is ‘day-to-day’: jobs & housing

‘We need to cool a lot of that war rhetoric’, Taiwan’s main concern is ‘day-to-day’: jobs & housing

A high stakes election in Taiwan and just moments ago the opposition has conceded Paving the way for the ruling dpps Li Ching uh to win the presidency he take over later this year in May the island also holding parliamentary elections together they will chart the trajectory for Taiwan over the next four

Years domestically the top issues were sluggish uh economy expensive housing but hanging over every election there is China the race saw the governing party which had emphasized Taiwanese sovereignty against an opposition that had favored Reviving engagement with China for more let’s speak to Elizabeth Lis an adjunct fellow at the Pacific

Forum and author of politics and Society in contemporary China she joins us on the line from taipe hello to you Elizabeth thank you for speaking to us um did this election in the end just come down to continuity oh yes that was a big part of it

Remember you know as you mentioned all politics are local and so the cost of housing is very expensive here wages are low um and so people are you know somewhat discontented um but they did not see that the other two parties would have um made much of a difference in

Improving the situation um certainly liing du who was vice president is now will be presid President elect and then be Kim sha who was um taiwan’s ambassador to the United States they together had a lot of experience and I think experience really won the day they have international and very strong

Domestic credentials and um I believe that a lot of people in Taiwan valued that over what the other parties had to offer yeah and as you’re speaking to us we’re seeing the concession speech from the opposition’s hooi um Elizabeth um moving forward the DPP has seen um under

Outgoing president chaing Wen uh she refused to recognize the one China policy China had a record number of uh incursions into Taiwanese airspace this past year what do you expect how will China respond we will see more incursions into um taiwan’s identification Zone its airspace and its identification Zone are

Two two different things um so but we will see um more aggression on the part of China uh Beijing would not talk to the Thai government uh they did not even engage in party to party talks the way that the Communist party did with the nationalists that the opposition uh that

Now defeated again opposition so they certainly will not even see uh partyt party talks I I expect that uh we will see uh China use a lot of the tools in its toolkit that you know you and I probably can’t even anticipate if Beijing could not tolerate the Sai Administration they will probably

Tolerate a linga Administration even less linga years ago had been more outspoken about taiwan’s permanent political separation from China he certainly toned that uh rhetoric down but China you know it remembers some of those comments and so it’ll you know it could be everything from you know fruits or vegetables from Taiwan suddenly

Having some kind of a blight or a pest or something like that it’ll be Taiwan businesses in China don’t have their records and Order and and and certainly we will see Beijing further trying to continue to squeeze taiwan’s diplomatic Space by trying to take away uh what’s left of taiwan’s diplomatic partners

Yeah in Taiwan we should say the self Island but not recognized as a country internationally why is it so important geopolitically oh for many reasons well first of all it is um an ally um and a partner of the United States so it’s very important to the United States for

Its strategic location Taiwan is located in what is called the first island chain which runs from Japan all the way down past Taiwan Philippines down to Indonesia and Malaysia and so whoever controls first island chain controls Maritime Supremacy in the Western Pacific you know close into China and so

If China were to ever control Taiwan it would control that whole um area there so that that’s quite Paramount but again as a political entity Taiwan is a democracy and the United States um sees Taiwan iwan as a fellow traveler and the United States very much supports

Democracies as you know Japan and South Korea of course support Taiwan as a democracy and so as China becomes much stronger um militarily not so much economically now but militarily um you know there there’s a risk that at some point china will Flex its muscles even

More than it’s been doing so and and Taiwan is in its crosshairs yeah and I’m curious about that earlier you mentioned lingo used to have some more fiery rhetoric um and he’s toned that down in this campaign I don’t know if you saw this poll by Commonwealth magazine but

It said about half of Taiwanese uh people voters uh are concerned about the possibility of a war in the next 5 years um is it a generational divide about how the Taiwanese view China or or not oh it’s partly generational it’s partly if you identify as Taiwanese or

You know from the mainland at some point um I think you know a lot of um young people really like the third candidate kenja and and and a lot of young people are you know concerned about war because so much of it has been in the media it’s

Been in the western media it’s been in the US media life here goes on as usual and so it is increasingly in the back of people’s minds but that’s where I would put it really the back of people’s minds the the the greater concern is is

Daytoday uh the the the cost of housing the low wages and and overeducated youth now for the job opportunities here so those are the issues that really resonate yeah there’s been you know talk of of War uh but um you know both China and the United States at least you know

Have said that they prefer a peaceful resol solution uh to the Taiwan issue and um it’s really questionable if shiin ping um wants to use force and is able to use force in the next few years so I I think honestly we need to cool a lot

Of that war rhetoric yeah one final thought Taiwan also holding these parliamentary elections we’re still awaiting final results of course um what will be the force order of business for the Parliament and are we sure the DPP will also uh perform maybe win a majority in the parliament no it doesn’t look like

They’re going to win a majority it I don’t even know if they wi to plurality I’ve been watching you know the numbers out of the central um you know Election Commission and what I’m seeing very slowly but gradually is actually Taiwan people’s party tppp that third party it

Taking um votes away little little by little from DPP we might might might might see the kmt that is the Nationalist party having a plurality in the legislature and what a lot of people are talking about here is if that happens the former mayor of gawong but he was also the former presidential

Candidate for kmt um in the last um election um in 2020 could he possibly become speaker he’s he is an like an at large Party candidate and so if he is in fact elected on the party list we might actually see him as Speaker of the legislature and what we might see

Honestly is divided you know government you know DPP in the executive un and and um TPP and kmt having significant um presence in in the legislative un with possibly kmt I’m watching the numbers um they might actually get a plurality Elizabeth thank you very much for breaking that down for us Elizabeth L

Speaking to us from taipe thank you

Taiwan’s incoming president is promising more of the same. The question is what that will bring, not only for Taiwan but also for its relations with China, the United States and others with an interest in the island of 23 million people that supplies many of the advanced semiconductors that keep the world running. Lai Ching-te, the winner of Saturday’s presidential race, has pledged to continue the policies of his predecessor Tsai Ing-wen, who built up the military and strengthened ties with the United States and other sympathetic countries. He has also pledged to do a better job of addressing domestic issues such as affordable housing and economic inequality. The new administration will have to manage relations with China, the island’s would-be ruler across the Taiwan Strait; with the United States; and with a divided legislature, as it tackles economic and other challenges at home. The candidate that China demonized during the campaign — a Chinese spokesperson called Lai a “destroyer of peace” — won. So what does China do now? Analysts expect some kind of show of displeasure but say the strongest signal may not come until May, when Lai takes office. It could be military exercises around the island, restrictions on imports from Taiwan, or both. China has done both in the past, notably holding major drills following the 2022 visit to the island of then U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. It sends fighter jets and warships into the skies and waters around Taiwan on almost a daily basis, a constant reminder of the threat of invasion if the government refuses to become part of China. China’s stated preference is what it calls “peaceful reunification.” That outcome appears increasingly unlikely as Taiwanese reject the idea of becoming part of China, particularly after the curbs on democracy and freedoms that China imposed following massive protests in Hong Kong. For in-depth analysis and a deeper perspective on Taiwan’s domestic politics, foreign policy and the Taiwanese socioeconomic priorities, FRANCE 24’s William Hilderbrandt is joined by Dr. Elizabeth Freund Larusis, Author, Adjunct Fellow at the Pacific Forum, Emerita Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at the University of Mary Washington and Founder and President of E Larus Consulting.

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