Global Impacts of U.S. Aid in the Ukraine War | Taiwan Talks EP357

Global Impacts of U.S. Aid in the Ukraine War | Taiwan Talks EP357

welcome to Taiwan talks I’m Albert Cho
the war in Ukraine has lasted for more
than two years casualties on the
Ukrainian side have reached 30,000
according to a BBC report we invite two
important guest speakers today from
Ukraine to discuss the ongoing situation
there and its potential implications for
Taiwan joining us today are Yuri POA key
based Center for Army conversion
disarmament studies new geopathic
research Network Asia section had and
Roman Koval former residents of rans and
current political science major at donai
University a very warm welcome to both
on the show the US House of
Representatives recently passed a US 95
billion legislative package uh which has
learned that this package is also passed
in Senate so will become law soon that
provides military aid to Ukraine as well
as to Israel and East Asian countries
including Taiwan so URI my first
question for you is that do you think
the bill becoming low will make a
significant difference to Ukrainian Army
in defending against the Contin Russian
attacks yes absolutely it will make from
my point of view and from the point of
view of Ukraine government and the from
the point of view of most Ukrainian
military expert it will make a huge
difference and there are about a few
reasons about this so the first one is
that there is a huge War a fullscale war
and the scale of the war is comparable
to the second world war so now on the
Ukraine territory is about more than
400,000 Russian troops so Russia now is
using the full range of weapons uh
besides nuclear ones so Russia now is
using T tanks artillery heavy artillery
and other heavy weapons including
Fighters and strategic bombers so the
fullscale war and for Ukraine is
extremely difficult to survive without
support because Ukraine has much less
resources in Russia in terms of people
in terms of uh financing in terms in
terms of uh military industry Etc
another uh reason of that is uh only the
US is the country that can produce the
particular types of weapons for instance
uh air defense or uh missile defense uh
or for instance High Mar uh missiles of
high Mar system or ammunition even
artillery ammunition I will give you a
few numbers just because in 2023
European Union promised to produce for
Ukraine up to 1 million artillery
ammunition but was able to produce only
300,000 Ukraine produced about
120,000 artillery ammunition and uh and
it was some some deliveries from other
countries and United States produced up
to 1 million uh artillery ammunition
together Ukraine had about 1 Mill 1.5
million artillery ammunition when Russia
was able to produce and also imported
from North Korea up to 3.5 million
artillery ammunition it means that
Russia had a superiority in terms of
aircraft in in terms of artillery
ammunition Etc and the problem was that
European Union’s military Industries
just cannot catch up with this huge
demand and another two very very short
reason of why this uh support will be
very much significant is that first of
all it will encourage Ukrainian people
to fight because Ukrainian people will
understand that there there is Ukraine
not alone in this war there is there are
many partners and the United States
still supports Ukraine very much and
last but not least it would also will
demonstrate the United States leadership
all over the world and other countries
will follow this example and we already
has many examples that for instance
Great Britain or France already incate
the defense budget for Ukraine but it
takes some time for the LW in the
domestic America and to you know become
a concrete action and financial support
Military Support to Ukraine it Tak some
time uh even though it after it becomes
low right in the in the states so what’s
the assessment of the land of the time
when the support from the United States
to become a real Battlegrounds power in
Ukrainian uh Army and help the first
delivery will be up to up to one week
because United States already prepared
the the particular amount of weapons
ammunition in Europe to deliver to
Ukraine so it will just take just few
days or one week but of course for
Ukraine to take the whole rench of
weapons and uh deliver it on the
battlefield and distribute it to the
military troops and then to start
offensive or Contra offensive or other
operation of course it would take some
time according to Ukrainian uh Military
Intelligence head of military
intelligence statement just few days ago
uh he uh he said that uh next one month
will be extremely difficult for Ukraine
it will not be catastrophic will not be
collapse will not be uh crucial very
very much but it will be difficult so we
can assess that it is a time it is a
duration
that Ukraine would take the full amount
of weapons and Ukraine Armed Forces now
need after learning about the passage of
this SP in a house Ukrainian President
Vladimir zalinski expressed gratitudes
let’s take a look
Yuri as your president suggested in his
statement is the passage of this bill
likely to change the tide you already
mentioned some of them of the war for
Ukraine overall perhaps even providing
Ukraine with opportunity to repel Uh
Russian forces uh is it any possibility
I mean how how big is the uh how how
substantial is the difference out there
after the uh legislative passage is
passed package is passed United States
so first of all we should say that war
is very Dynamic it’s extremely difficult
forecast because last year for instance
Ukrainian government forecast and
forecasted and predicted that Ukraine
would make successful counter offensive
operation on the on on the land on the
ground but Ukraine didn’t achieve its
goals on the ground but achieved its
goals on the sea in Sea domain so uh we
should uh understand that first of all
war is very Dynamic there are many
variables of the war and War now is very
comprehensive so it’s not just one types
of weapons could change the situation or
be become socalled game changer for
instance when it was in 2022 High Mar
system or artillery system Etc but now
we can see many many elements of Ukraine
defense for instance F16 will strengthen
Ukrainian defense let let’s assess 10%
and then artillery ammunition 10% and
then some uh drones and other elements
and then it will gradually increase the
Ukrainian capabilities it’s impossible
to forast what Ukrainian arent forces
what would do because it’s extremely
classified information and no one no one
knows uh it besides Ukrainian government
but according to our assessment Ukraine
this year will uh for first of all
stabilize the front line and secondly
Ukraine will make so-called shaping
operation to prepare condition for the
offensive operation for the next year
how it would successful will it be
successful or not it’s difficult to say
but Ukraine would do everything what
what what what it can to to achieve it
Roman on the other hand uh you know
let’s kind of shift attention to a
little bit to the uh Russian’s power in
terms of the nuclear weapons okay so as
You observe is it fair to say that
NATO’s hesitation to directly help
Ukraine is due to Russian uh possession
of the nuclear weapons by the same token
can we understand that the reluctance of
Western countries to engage in a fight
with Iran when it attacks Israel is also
due to the same reason yeah I’m quite
sure that we can say that basically one
of the reason why Western countries
hesitate to provide uh to Ukraine more
assistance and more help is due to the
fact that Russia’s government possess uh
nuclear weapon at the same time uh I
believe that this kind of dangerous uh
Behavior because this kind of thing what
what the basically the meaning of the
word hesitation hesitation is kind of
showing the fear and I think that
Russian government including including
other uh authoritative government the
government where when where
autoritarismo
uh take and start some kind of um
offensive not not depression but kind of
to they can they can decide to occupy
the other country the short countries so
basically I think the main uh problem
here is that the NATO countries and uh
in generally speaking Western World
countries should show more strength more
power and this I believe also will be
the good sign for those other countries
that can commit any kind of uh violence
to the short countries and also I wonder
how do ukrainians feel about the
difference in the level of assistance
provided by Western Societies in the
beginning when the West seemed to help
Israel more for example help Israel to
intercepting Iran’s missiles uh has
ukrainians public opinion changed after
the passage of legislative package in
the US I know that this just happened
okay but as as you you know uh read read
news from uh the domestic Ukrainian
media what’s your information about this
yeah my information like for me
personally I can describe it is just
this two words left alone basically for
the last half year what been happening
it’s kind of uh I cannot say like from
all ukrainians but for me my personal
feelings like I I wasn’t of course happy
to see how uh West simply cannot provide
us enough uh enough help enough support
so we can at least not to offense and
retake our territories that were
occupied earlier but at least to
continue Contin to defend that front
line that territory that we have at that
moment and also I can mention for
example the last big city that uh Russia
managed to capture from Ukraine
territory which is city of AA even
president B President Biden himself said
that one of the reason why it happened
is due to the fact that Congress for the
last few months uh wasn’t able to
provide us support to uh send to follow
to to vote for that
so basically and of course since now we
saw last week last news that finally it
was approved uh yeah of course I can say
thank you very much for assistance but
as president sent president of Ukraine
zinski said earlier it doesn’t need to
be weeks and months to wait for that our
guys those who are fighting those who
are in the front line today they need
support today because this is their
lives the city we can recapture our city
later and Ukraine will fight back all
the cities that we lost during this uh
two years war but the lives of people of
soldiers this something we cannot return
that’s why we need support the support
must come in time and uh we will
continue to uh ask for the West our
Western allies to do it in time and do
it faster as fast as they can okay you
read uh Ukraine’s top Commander has
stated that Russia is launching a major
offensive in eastern Ukraine aiming to
capture the Eastern front line of chesar
before May 9th uh Roman mentioned a
little bit of that already what is
Russia’s Victory uh I mean which is
Russia’s Victory Day in World War II uh
so if Russian forces capture uh shashar
what impact would that have on the
military capabilities of both sides
first of all the situation around uh
chiv yard and also about around a
because that Ukraine lost about few
months ago this is uh from my point of
view and I absolutely convinced about
this this is the reason uh the reason of
this is that the delay of support of the
of the Ukrainian partner so of course we
do understand that West and United
States has right to whether or not to
support Ukraine and this they Absolut
absolutely right and uh and ukrainians
extremely grateful for the support and I
uh absolutely agree with my colleague uh
but at the same time we do understand
that uh that something could change and
this is the lesson that ukrainians learn
that even if we have strong partner but
from for some reason the strong partner
could change its uh its opinion its
position Etc so Ukraine lesson here is
to all always to have a plan B to uh to
find out other solution if something
happens and uh when it comes to chard
the situation now there is quite
difficult is uh is very severe so there
is a fierce battles uh now there uh and
uh taking CH of yard for Russia gives
some tactical Advantage then Russia
could use in order to achieve some
operational advantages because chivar is
on the hills and controlling chivar
Russia could uh put under Fire Control
other Ukrainian cities for instance
kator and and some uh important train
points uh but at the same time we do
believe that this situation is not ropic
and uh Ukraine will able to to maintain
its position a little bit Western more
more Western according to the Ukrainian
government and Ukrainian military
commander assessment the next uh next
few weeks and next month will be kind of
difficult for Ukraine but it doesn’t
necessarily mean that Ukraine front line
that Ukrainian Position will be
collapsed so everything is under control
now okay regarding the military strategy
that needs improvements here’s what
zinski said
okay uh Roman so what is Ukraine’s
current defense strategy How likely is
that the Ukrainian government will
eventually surrender the occupied
territories for a truths you think yes
Albert I believe that of course our
defense strategy is uh to recapture the
old lost territory that uh happened not
just from 2022 but from 200 14 when
Crimea Peninsula and eastern part of
Ukraine donbas was occupied so basically
that’s the like the biggest uh goal that
uh our current government has uh
obviously I can say that about if
answering the question about the
surrendering uh I believe uh neither
zilinski nor just ordinary people would
agree for this kind of scenario I
believe and I talk to to my friends to
my family to everyone who has uh who
observe the situation in Ukraine uh I
believe that no one will agree to
surrender for a kind of peace first of
all because no one trust Putin even he
can promise for us some kind of peace
deal today no one knows that tomorrow or
like the next day that change his
opinion of course yes yes and of course
to put sign uh from the all the
government from all the Ukrainian people
to put sign that for example donbas
region we go in the hands to Russia in
the hands of Putin no one will do it
because the that presidency of that
politician I mean if it we are talking
about zinski will will be just ended the
same day it happened so I believe it
will not happen MH so Yuri what is the
ukrainians current defense strategy in
your observation so uh we believe that
this year will be crucial and will shape
the the result of this war
2024 so how to achieve that uh that
Roman just mention how to achieve this
goal of Ukrainian uh Ukrainian Armed
Forces so first of all Ukraine will
concentrate on the so-called asymmetric
approach because Ukraine cannot compete
with russan in all domains so Ukraine
trying to build up some asymmetric
weapons and already successfully uses
for instance this so-called fpv drones
that Ukraine is using and their number
according to Ukrainian government
information during this year to be
produced could be up to 1 million it
means that these fpv drones could
partially substitute the lack of
ammunition that I mentioned and at the
very beginning and this fpv drone that
could cost uh less than $500 US could
successfully Target uh military object
and Personnel Etc so another approach is
to development of the technology now on
the battlefield there is a huge
competition of technology and Russia and
Ukraine compete with with each other in
terms of usage of drones uh not only air
drones but also uh ground drones now the
situation on the battlefield is uh so
difficult so everything that that
approach up to 5 km to the front line is
just targeted by enemy drones so it
means that providing ammunition
providing logistic supplying water
supplying uh uh other things on the to
the front line is very difficult so uh
Ukraine now is trying to use the
socalled uh UAV but ground UAV just to
for evacuation wounded people to provide
an amunition Etc another approach is to
developing is long uh range strike
capabilities Ukraine now working on the
Strategic drones on building strategic
drones and also I think that there is a
building up so-called Ukrainian missile
programs in order to Target uh important
objects uh military objects and energy
facilities of Russia on the uh in their
strategic depths up to 1,000 or even
2,000 kilometers so Ukraine now already
uh already develop some types of these
weapons but they need to be uh first of
all to make them much more bigger number
and secondly bigger cap capabilities and
uh last but not least uh Ukraine also
would work on the maritime domain so we
do see now how
effective
ukrainians uh USV socaled USV uh nav
Navy drones that that helped to uh to
destroy up to 30% of UK of Russian black
Fleet so Ukraine will will definitely
continue this efforts M uh Roman uh
let’s move the attention to ke the
capital of Ukraine so what is the public
opinion on zelinsky’s leadership
throughout the world I know that he been
working really hard and we all you know
from different countries seen that
but U how would the secession of Border
territories affect Ukrainian civilians
of course we don’t want that to happen
but what if that happen and what might
be the reaction from the uh civilians
right first of all Albert I would say
that uh ukrainians Ukrainian president
zensi rating still very high uh of
course first of all I would mention that
when he was elected as the president uh
he won with 73% waiting uh rating vote
and uh when the started during the first
weeks of the War uh his rating Rose uh
more for more than
90% one of the reason for that was
because during the due to safety uh his
personal safety reasons uh he was
advised by Western our allies to leave
the capital ke and to just to leave to
other country due to the safety problems
and but at that time he decided to stay
in ke and to fight back uh Russians uh
so of course he was his rating was very
very high it’s still very high but it’s
uh of course during due to two years
ongoing War his rating went little bit
down and but still it’s more than 60%
this what again say as for the cation of
the territory as I said earlier uh
ukrainians including those that live at
the bordering uh territories with Russia
yes they of course they feel that the
war is going on and of course it’s very
difficult but
still uh still they would they would not
agree it’s easier for them just to
relocate maybe to other parts of Ukraine
but uh no one will no one just would
agree that okay please uh let’s exchange
this territory for the peace with Russia
and they said and you originally from
rans uh you know could you share a
littleit experience about the region uh
the dbas which has been dominated by
Russia since 2014 uh because uh it is
heard that uh you know there is even a
uh large number of resents were
forcefully uh conscripted there yes
exactly so first I can say in 2014 I was
in luhansk that time when the basically
Russia first tried to occupy uh my city
and uh I can say what happened at at
those days the first uh well there is
kind of basically uh one um prevailing
thought that Russia the strongest Russia
um the strongest Russia weapon is
nuclear weapon but basically this is not
the case the strongest um weapon of
Russia is propaganda Russian propaganda
this basically what happened in 2014
when they tried to occupy the territory
the first thing that they were uh trying
to trying to take control over is the uh
those Ukrainian TV station those
Ukrainian radio station so that they can
put their kind of propaganda for the
local people and this of course uh it’s
been happening for eight years eight
years since 2014 I mean for now it’s
already 10 years so uh at the same time
combining with economic economic
difficulties that luhansk and donk City
suffered from and people being just
everyday brainwashed uh yes local people
local men they started to uh join army
of course sometimes forcefully sometimes
it wasn’t forcefully because yeah this
was just the choice due to that
influence by Propaganda and so basically
yeah this is the kind of what Putin is
doing he is fighting with ukrainians uh
using ukrainians this what been
happening okay uh Yuri uh we know that
the outcome of the 2024 US presidential
election is going to affect the
Ukrainian uh Russia War really uh much
so uh let’s ask the question in a direct
way if Donald Trump is elected how will
that influence the war in Ukraine in
your observation assessments so I think
that no one knows about this and even
Americans we ask Amic Americans very you
know very often uh but it’s impossible
to predict uh it seems that result of
election and also the the possible
policy of Donald Trump if he is elected
is the biggest wild card here uh and
Ukraine K understand it ke understand
that there could be different scenario
so kev’s approach is to prepare itself
for different scenario from the very
very well from the very good scenario to
the to the uh most worst scenario and uh
and also working very hard on uh
building up its it self capability
selfdefense and
self-sufficient and uh another approach
is to build up uh alternative uh
alternative connection uh with other
partners uh in Europe and also and also
in in Asia uh so perhaps this would be
the the best approach to prepare to to
uh uh hope for the best but prepare for
the worst uh and also it’s not only the
person of Donald Trump but also there
are huge number of variable that could
come if he is elected we don’t know uh
who would be his team in his time we
don’t know who would be his advisers we
don’t know how Russia would react we
don’t know how China would react and
these variables internal and external
they could turn the table so that’s why
Ukraine’s approach is to figure out a
few basic scenario and prepare for the
for the all of them Roman uh you are you
know of the younger generation so
according to your observation what is
the attitude or public opinion of uh the
Ukrainian people especially among the
younger generation towards uh the two
parties in United States Republican Or
democrats particularly like what I
mentioned that uh you know maybe Donald
Trump is likely to get elected and and
could you tell us a little bit about
that one of the biggest problem that
personally I think Western World in
general has right now and USA in
particularly is the lack of Str strong
leadership and uh yeah of course I
relate right now to President Biden and
I don’t think uh president Trump of
course he is very sometimes
controversial person and some of his
statement like we can think that yeah
lots of ukrainians of course definitely
worried that he will stop the support
totally to Ukraine I don’t think that
will happen I don’t think that he want
to be remembered as the President of USA
who give like Ukraine to the hands of
Putin okay Roman and you uh thank you
for the great insight and participation
in the show thank you very much thank
you thank you Albert like our show leave
us a message and subscribe to Taiwan
talks see you soon

As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine enters its third year, the BBC reports Ukrainian casualties have surpassed 30,000. The U.S. has approved a US$95 billion aid package targeting Ukraine, Israel and the Indo-Pacific region. In this episode of TaiwanTalks, we explore the potential effects of this aid on the war in Ukraine’s trajectory, the current conditions in Ukraine and possible impacts on Taiwan.

Our guests are:

Yurii Poita
– New Geopolitics Research Network Asia Section Kyiv-based Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies Asia-Pacific section head

Roman Koval
– Political science student, Tunghai University

Chapters:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:57 – Analyzing the US$95B U.S. Military Aid
00:05:47 – Predicting the Future of the War in Ukraine
00:07:48 – Are Nuclear Weapons Deterring NATO Support?
00:11:44 – Insights From Ukraine’s Losses on the Eastern Front
00:16:55 – Evaluating Ukraine’s Defense Strategy
00:19:50 – Ukrainian Civilians’ Views on Zelenskyy
00:23:35 – Predicting Impact of Trump’s Potential Return on Ukraine

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