Chasiv Yar’s Inevitable Fall, Ukraine to Use British Weapons In RU – Ukraine War Map Analysis & News

Chasiv Yar’s Inevitable Fall, Ukraine to Use British Weapons In RU – Ukraine War Map Analysis & News

good day Legends I hope that you’re having a fantastic day and so far a fantastic weekend and getting up to as much as you can maybe have a beer as well so we have a lot to go today we’re going to look at some maps we’re going to look at some geolocated footage we’re going to talk about f16s we’re going to talk about the UK their commitments to Ukraine more money and of course what they’ve said about firing weapons inside of Russia and targets there as well we need to look at the Kirch bridge and you know that has been a big topic of conversation the entire War we need to look at the Swiss peace Summit as we know Russia’s not invited China may not go and what is to come of this as far as where the continuation of the war is and the 10-point peace plan of seninsky of course and conscripts as well so a little bit of everything where we’re going to start is with the UK and what David Cameron has said so British uh foreign secretary David Cameron promised £3 billion pound of annual military aid for Ukraine for as long as it takes saying we will give 3 billion every year for as long as necessary we’ve just really emptied all we can in terms of giving equipment so for as long as necessary and I think it is reasonable of course you can’t ask anything without it being unreasonable apparently but it is reasonable as taxpayers to question multibillion pound or multibillion dollar commitments that are part of an uncertain future for as long as necessary the variables in this war of where this can end they are 0 to 100 it is 1991 borders it’s Russia clearing all the way through to Poland and Romania we have no idea where this is going to end yet what is for as long as necessary is it 5 years is it one year is it 10 it’s reasonable to ask that when you’re talking such huge amounts of money while people back home are also struggling I’m not saying it’s right or wrong this commitment I’m saying that people have the right to question this as far as well what is the future commitment here and what do we see as the end goal the realistic end goal camon said Ukraine had a right to use weapons provided by London to strike targets inside Russia saying Ukraine has that right just as Russia is striking inside Ukraine you can quite understand why Ukraine feels the need to make sure it’s defending itself and this is something very large and I’m guessing whatever clickbait title I have is to do with this that we know UK weapons weapons from London have not been allowed to be used inside Russia now most of what we’ll be talking about here are things like storm Shadows or Vehicles as we’ve seen crossings by Ukrainian backed units Ukrainian units into Russia will we see strikes with things like Storm Shadow not just just do domestically produced Ukrainian weapons then inside Russia what escalation leads to from here we’ll look at what Russia has said back to this as well but that is Major and we have had other countries say similar we know Finland has said it we know that latva have hinted towards this as well so US ambassador Bridget Brink said in a meeting with journalists on May 3 about specifically strikes inside Russia the first part of helping Ukraine defend itself is supplying our weapons and those of our partners to support the effort of our brave Heroes on the front lines to return your territories our position from the beginning has been that we do not enable or encourage the use of our weapons in Russia outside Ukraine’s territory so the US is still not on board with these strikes inside Russia and we haven’t seen any strikes with these UK weapons since there’s inside of Russia either we’ll see what is actually comes of this now earlier this week we did see that Latvian foreign minister Baba bra has said that there are allies with no restrictions now didn’t say what allies those are Russia asked which allies they were no answer has been given but of course back to the foreign secretary here and what he has said so will there be a significant shift there will there be significant escalation in strikes going in we just don’t know we know that in terms of red lines being crossed we cross Russia’s red lines Russia crosses our red lines these red lines you know it sort of become like a line in the sand that people walk all across that always the threat of nuclear weapons but nuclear weapons have no tactical use they have strategic use diplomatic use for the threat but as far as tactical use if you’re going to bloody launch one of these you’re going to just kill tens hundreds of millions within a couple of days and everything’s then over so that’s where these red lines sit is Russia about to Target London if a Storm Shadow lands in belgrad probably not will there be shifts yeah there likely will be so uh actually let’s do the next part first so this was Russia’s response to this in a direct escalation of tension around the Ukrainian conflict this is from Dimitri pesov he speak about him a lot of Kremlin spokesman now from the Russian foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria zakova has said how responsible and callous do you have to be not to realize what such statements lead to especially with regard to countries with nuclear weapons we always respond but how can you not think about the feelings of British subjects and EU citizens so those threats there but what we do know is when I said that they have the nuclear weapons have no like no tactical Advantage but massive strategic well if Russia did not have nuclear weapons we as far as the West would have no problem then deploying Troop troops into Ukraine and more weapons and More Everything against Russia so they do have like I said strategic diplomatic push 100% having those as a just end of game Hammer but as far as movements on the front and red lines how far does it need to go until something happens let’s hope for the sake of just the globe and all of us we don’t bloody find out the foreign secretary also kicked off negotiations with Ukraine on 100-year partnership now I should say this is from uh the British foreign like Ministries website a new agreement that will build enduring links between our two countries across the spectrum of trade security and defense cooperation science technology education culture and more the UK’s commitment to developing this partnership is a clear signal of its intent to build close and enduring cooperation with Ukraine the Ukrainian people for decades to come so 100e one century partnership like I said in the beginning people have the right to question this when we have no idea where this war will lead and where Ukraine will be at the end of this war good or bad up and down we don’t know but like I’ve said before I think these longlasting commitments people have the right to question and go well where’s the commitment to finish the war somewhere whether it’s military means diplomatic means whatever before we start doing a 100 years think back 100 years and think about the breakup of the world and how different it is now country r that were allies are now enemies and vice versa so all of this leads I guess to the peace Summit that is coming in Switzerland and of course this peace Summit is based on zelinsky’s 10-point pce plan but it only takes into account Ukrainian wishes of that where a negotiation would start and whether you like it or not Russia is currently winning on the battlefield occupied a large amount of Ukraine why at this point would Russia agree to these requests I think a lot of Western strategy has been based on a Ukrainian Victory through a Russian collapse more so than a Ukrainian Victory through military means if that makes sense anyway let’s have a look over this and where some points are important in this like I said in yesterday’s video and maybe the day before as well I don’t I think if China doesn’t participate in this it’s Proby not worth having but we will see Russia is not among the guests they weren’t invited but Switzerland has said that they need to be at some point China’s participation is the big question China’s Ambassador said in March they’re considering the possibility of participating I’d like an update on that now that Russia’s officially not coming what China then think China’s foreign minister Wang ye um said China supports the convening of an international meeting at an appropriate time recognized by both Russia and Ukraine of course this what’s happening is not going to be recognized by Russia so I’m guessing China doesn’t then support it in which all parties can participate on an equal footing and honestly discuss all peaceful Solutions John Kirby the national security coordinator in America has said this we welcome the participation of China or any other country that would like to join to help end this war that takes into account and respects president solinsky’s 10-point piece plan for a just peace so that’s where this is starting is at that peace plan we’ll talk about that further and if China is a country that wants to help work for a just peace and is ready to fully respect president solinsky’s goals and objectives and his prerogatives then my God we will support that but I would be wrong if I told you that we really saw China moving in this direction we didn’t they’re saying they don’t see China supporting that plan as well as this specific conference and like I said that this is based on this now this peace plan currently Falls over at these number five of this 10-point plan restoring Ukraine’s National integrity and Russia affirming it according to the UN Charter which zinski said is not up to negotiations so restoring that border 1991 that Ukraine is saying six withdrawal of all Russian troops and ceas of hostility stop fighting move back out seven Justice including the establishment of special tribunal to prosecute Russian war crimes these three here while Russia is having success on the battlefield that their economy has been a lot stronger toward sanctions than I think even Russia maybe thought as well why at this point in time would it agree to these this peace conference is not a peace conference if there’s no negotiation and where you’re negotiating is not even in the realm of where other the other uh participant in this war is even and prepared to start speaking and vice versa so at this point it is a conference for support and to get media eyes on this it’s not to try and end the war but one thing I hope which comes of this and I really do hope this but again with Russia not there well but Ukraine is considering an all for all prisoner of war exchange at the upcoming peace Summit in but again Russia’s not there zinski is told recruits speaking at the National Academy of estate border guards it’s desired that we swap all for all all reasonable countries support this route we’re conducting exchanges but a lot slower than we would like so just all PWS both ways of course this would help Ukraine getting more numbers back in as we know there is a Manpower shortage zinsky said despite some Skeptics believing all for all was only possible after the end of the war he hoped there was an opportunity to try and make this happen earlier pointing towards the peace Summit which is being held so we will see but like I’ve said the peace Summit doesn’t involve the country who holds the other side of all of those bloody PS so as well I don’t know where this actually ends up now let’s have a look at kurch bridge and then we will have a look at the maps so we’ve had this bit of footage coming out here saying that this is showing the first train moving on a new part of track between marapole and volova down in this region so between marapole and volova up here so between these two now why is there a carriage in front of this now what I would say is if there are any partisans who have put any Minds on the track that this would set it off first before then hitting the engine of the train that that is just what I’m saying one thing we do know is Russia is building new train lines so we have this first one through here but we also know there’s one from rosov marul bans melel and then down I’m not sure which rope but I’m guessing this one all the way down then to saser pole as well of course what this is doing is bypassing this kch bridge here creating a land bridge into the south of Ukraine to supply into the hon and zap of blast of Military Support also what we do know is that sbu head has said Russia is no longer using cran bridge for weapon supplies after repeated strikes now I’ve actually reached out to my lawyer friend who’s been on this before and he’s going to look into some some stuff and get back to me but my question basically was if Ukraine has said that this is now not being used for military equipment is the bridge now still a legitimate Target I don’t know that is why I asked you Ukraine’s ambassador to the UN has put this up two days ago six types of bridge and with of course nothing in the Cur so we know that Ukraine is still planning at some point a Target on that on that bridge again I question its strategic importance now with other links being built as well Russia is known that this has been a target from day one so how much uh logistical stores and supplies have been moved into areas like choma assuming that that is going to be cut off again I don’t know and I guess time will tell here we have Ukraine the center the capital of ke the red area is occupied since 22 the purple since 14 of course this being cha dones and Lans we have some areas to look over now we come down here there aren’t many changes on this map really any at all but we come down into then the adiva front and we see what we know between solov and oar has been then consumed and Ukraine has been pushed out of here moving backwards into sakil as well as other then defense Ive lines here what we did assume that we would see is this close off through here we haven’t seen this but what we have seen is a gray Zone shift here moving that all then into Gray Zone so I would assume that this has been cut off just given the uh roots of fire and movement that could actually happen out of here as well as we have a little bit of geolocated footage to show you in here so at this point so we see between right here let’s zoom in on this so we can actually give you a look so we’re talking it’s not the easiest to line up but just about here we then have this video of Ukrainian troops moving outward said to be on a retreat line from here now I can’t show you the remaining part of this footage as that is then targeted by artillery now I can show on YouTube when Russian soldiers get hit Russian vehicles get hit I can’t show when ukrainians get hit that’s just from what I seen every time I get demonetized and restricted go figure anyway so we do know there is movement out of this region what would to me say this has closed up and reasonable looking at this it wouldn’t make sense to have guys still down in here unless they were trapped but we know that this is moving out from here and expanding every day the control here limiting the threat of this then being cut off now let’s compare then the suriak map and see in here now no major shifts on Surak but it does show that this has been cut off from previous days but a little bit of movement out from Kik out here as well but situation northw IFA Russian army took control over the trenches North kic in addition Ukraine Army withdrew from the northern part of here that lines up with that footage we showed and the adjacent trench system so moving back out across into more defensive lines now what else do we have to show you let’s talk about this this is probably in the wrong folder but we do have this from Ukraine saying that this is a Russian tour air defense system in the zap oblast hit by uh highas now couple things I want to point out is this is out in the middle of a field and we can see the radar rotating on here but we then see the high air burst strike here now people have said are this overshot and missed that’s no like okay it might not have hit direct you haven’t had a hole in one but the amount of shrapnel and damage that this will cause is massive and then we do see though we don’t see any typical air defense Cookoff here and also you know sitting out in the middle of a field now I’m just going to say and a few people have said this potentially is a decoy now the thing moving on top well you can you can do that with a motor and in a decoy that is 100% sitting at the middle of field no cook off I know if it was the other way around everyone would be saying it is a decoy now let’s then talk about chasar the north Group H sorry not Shas ofar talk about belgrad hariv sui North group many people are saying that the next movement’s in here saying confirmed I don’t believe it’s confirmed that there will be a Russian push somewhere in here to try and capture Ki ANS try and get har surround Kev I I don’t know I haven’t seen anything of which I would call confirmed until troops start moving in I think the threat of that movement has just as much importance as the movement actually coming in as Ukraine need to allocate resources toward it but let’s look at what the key of independent has said about this that uh well we’ll line up the second half of this first that um Ukrainian officials Russia’s group of forces around har blast border is currently 35,000 strong but set to expand 50 to 70,000 troops which is a hell of a lot while this is not enough to capture a major city it would be sufficient for smaller tasks saying a quick operation to come in and come out maybe but an operation to take hariv or even sui city is of a different order saying what I would say that that amount still a huge amount of guys but it isn’t enough to come in and occupy take over a city that said is it enough to come in and Surround something not taking it over but cutting then something off again I don’t know I know many way more Ukrainian uh bloggers as speaking about this confirmed operation of the north group coming in then I’ve actually seen Russian bloggers talking about it now I’ll leave that up to you guys of why we think that why we see that but I don’t know we know that Eden May Ukraine has been saying this is when Russia will launch something large I wouldn’t be surprised it would make sense in here but that amount of troops on the battlefield would be very significant and more so than that is the amount of troops then Ukraine would have to allocate to defense of that we could see then a huge push somewhere down in the east in a type of exception I don’t know but in the same thing the military intelligence General said that sh of’s fall is probably a matter of time not today or tomorrow but of course but all depending on our reserves and supplies so this goes against what spokesman Sarah has said that chasar will not fall now we come down in here on deep state map and you can see that there is a confirmed update just in here on the border of chasya we know Russia’s been trying to then achieve this break in here for for an amount of time we know that there are soldiers present down in here but the break in is going to be very very difficult we don’t have yet a Surak update to show this now let’s move up into this kislia front where we are seeing some Russian movement over the past couple of days in here now let’s go between yesterday today we don’t see any shift but to have a suriak update now this is keska this is the other town here showing there is more of a close up along here of course this is showing dramatically different in these fields in here again it’s always hard to line up exactly where these are sitting out to Tova it’s close enough but the movement in here will be very interesting because we know kop ask will be one of the main main goals if there is a northern advancement to get from both the west and then from the south now now NOA Maya livka let’s have a look down in here on this map we only see a gray Zone shift because what we have had word of is that Russia is going to try and push from the south on these next areas rather than a continuation moving West we also have this from Noah reports showing this expansion of control just out to the north of the western edge more so than the mod map is showing now Noah reports map lines up almost exactly with then surix map of the same area Russian army has been advancing here in that westwards direction so a lot of interesting updates happening in here and it will be very interesting to see where this goes but as you can see for these train lines from map valovka marinka you can see why this link down here is incredibly important if this was to close up where that then leads and the expansion of control now let’s talk about this upsets me this is in uh in Moscow of course we know for Victory Day Parade on the ninth that many Western weapons are put on Parade similar to the parade that Ukraine had with all the Russian weapons down the Main Street this is an Australian Bushmaster here of course people giving it the finger I was a bush Master Commander for a long amount of time so uh oh let’s talk about f-16s before we have a look at guys who could be conscripted from then Australia so this was fight bom talking about f16s now this is long you should go to his Telegram and have a look if you’d like but of course not everything is so simple talk about fighting these there will be a fight and you will have to try very hard to beat the F-16 dry it is unlikely that the little Russian will go to fight them with us on equal terms rather we will analyze the situation look for single targets at Sea bombers without cover helicopters and again use Ambush tactics so Ukraine using the same tactics we’ve seen to take down other aircraft a50s Tu aircraft and put those into place then if he plans to work then by air as with the Patriots the crest will fire packs of missiles towards a Target without Illuminating a Target in hope that the active head of the missile will catch the target with some minimal probability so fing them in that direction without Illuminating the Target first hoping the head of it will see then then hit the target so you don’t have that amount of time of knowing that you being lzed in the air awax can provide full support for air combat only in areas barding Kev and Odessa regions well over the sea the farther away from helpers are from the bombers the worse and worse the help will be now he brings up something very very important here fighter aircraft modern fighter aircraft not completely Reliant but having awax in the air Airborne uh early warning and communication systems is incredibly vital to get the full nature of what that craft can do now what we do know is these systems do have a very long range but we’re not giving Ukraine awax systems so of course from Poland Slovakia down Romania out through part of international um in the Black Sea that awax will be able to already flying and supplying Ukraine a massive amount of information but for a few hundred K in here will be able to give support for this now of course this is going to cover a lot of crimeia as well further supporting those weapon systems aboard those planes that said if these planes are out in rosov region out here the amount of aox support is going to be none or very limited reducing the effectiveness of these aircraft we’ve spoken at length about this what we think these aircraft will have the most effect on is out over the Black Sea hitting areas in Crimea maybe some planes over the sea of as self but as far as operating out over like the H luhansk ablast will be probably very limited in that air to ground capability there is an opinion that at the beginning of their appearance they will be used ex exclusively against air defense and ground Targets this is obvious with those harm missiles because the F-16 can use air to radar so arm and air to Grand missiles much more effectively than Sue 24 and mig29 to which the crest attached the missiles with tape I don’t know if it was though exactly taped on but you get what he means that these are a much more connected system to go in to try and take out air defense but to work in that uh combined arms roll out over Frontline areas I think it’s going to need to be more pushed back but it will be very very interesting to see exactly the effect these planes have that said I think these planes if they don’t live up to the expectation the expectation think of the expectation for the ABS the leopards challies how high that was and how hard that fell in then the counter offensive these planes being built up 10 times that if there is a failure I think so much of the future next 12 months has really hadn’t had the Hat hung on the performance of these aircraft and if they don’t perform what else is coming it’s not like whilst we’ve been training the pilots on these well at least it’s not public we’ve been training pilots on Apaches or tigers as well hoping for something new to come in I think it’ll be very interesting I think in the beginning we will see a huge uh effect of these plants we’ll see for the first few weeks but like other systems like the attacks like the Excalibur like many systems you’ll have maybe 6 eight weeks of big effect and then Russia will learn and adapt and the effectiveness of that will start dropping that’s just from preious previous experience with basically every other system but we will see now s SPS as an Australian Channel had this today maybe yesterday regarding ukrainians in Australia and put on some points where have spoken about who could be conscripting now this block is going not under his name for security reasons which should tell you some here and his mother Nina fled Ukraine 3 days after Russia launched its fullscale Invasion shortly after his 16th birthday now they’ve come to Australia where nearly 11,400 Ukrainian Visa holders have gone since the full scale Invasion now Australia is a hell of a lot longer away than if you in Poland to get Consul assistance this is something we’ve spoken about a lot we didn’t have time to arrange military documents it should have been done before the age of 17 but he left at 16 now he’s 18 this is a rude awakening that is going to be going towards many many families that if you were 16 or if you were 15 and a half now you are of age to have to sign up for the military well have to sign military documents at least to possibly be conscripted at you know the age is 25 but that at the longer this war goes on well next year you’re going to be 4 and a half and it’s going to be problems with guys going back then you left as a kid and just by age you’ve turned into a man and now go back and fight she says that Alex is epileptic but in Ukraine a person’s disability status expires after two years we know all disabilities are being reassessed as well if you can go on fight due to the manp shortage Nina who is a doctor is also liable for military services saying if they go back they may not be allowed to leave because of her the need for her there as well his disability status has an expiration date but we not in Ukraine and cannot renew it so many many hundreds of thousands or Millions actually going to be facing very similar with children as well now this was very interesting from this Tana uh Kovalchuk and a Ukrainian living in Australia suggested that Ukrainian government’s move she described as a legal and its Sovereign right that it actually doesn’t go far enough and is unfair only in so far as it applies to one particular demographic now this is proper feminism this is proper equality it violates article 17 of the Constitution of Ukraine which you and I have actually looked at maybe a week ago which states that defense of the sovereignty and integrity of Ukraine is the business of all Ukrainian people therefore DET termination of Consul Services if it involves the goal of returning people to Ukraine to protect the country must be introduced for all holders of Ukrainian passports who need their reassurance so re who need their reissuance so men women Ukraine needs defenders in all Ukraine now needs defenders in different areas both at the front and in the rear all ages are suitable interestingly she could head across and help I guess we will see but saying that everyone should be going over to help will in the future that we see a need for conscription of men and women drop that age down to try and backfill maybe some of the third or rear ason positions with females to supply men to fight on the front line I don’t know you need to remember too that energy networks rebuilding you know some of this infrastructure typically are men doing those jobs especially in a fairly conservative country like Ukraine it would be far more more say than somewhere like Australia there’s a lot of men tied up in critical work and working at the power station who potentially could be fighting at the front or living I guess in Switzerland but I guess we will see what the shift is there maybe retraining of uh people to go and fight and try and fix that Manpower issue um if Naf won’t go and sign up as well to fight that said we don’t know where any of this All Leads Legends look after yourself and I’ll speak to you tomorrow thank you bye-bye

G’day Legends, I hope you’re doing well, Today we talk about the Russia’s winter offensive and look at the war map updates.

If you’re new here thanks for coming across, I served in the Australian Infantry from 2014-2021, With a tour to Afghanistan as a crew commander of a Armoured Mobility Vehicle.
Upon my Return I was unexpectedly diagnosed with a Incurable and Inoperable Brain tumour that is slowly killing me. I was also awarded the Queens Order of Australia Medal (OAM) hence the post nominals after my name. Then Being medically separated from the Army I flew to Ukraine in 2022 for 6.5months and now make content full time. I really appreciate you being here Thankyou

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