Multiple Defensive Positions Continue To Fall, When Will It STOP? – Ukraine War Map Analysis & News

Multiple Defensive Positions Continue To Fall, When Will It STOP? – Ukraine War Map Analysis & News

get a Legends I hope that you are having a fantastic day and so far a fantastic week now I am feeling way way better than I was yesterday for the last 3 or 4 days I don’t know what hit me but I was very very unwell I was actually struggling to do Bloody anything but we are back well I hope that we’re back but today we do have a lot to talk about we’re going to talk about F16 some ins and outs and also from Ukrainian Parts we’re going to have a really big look at the maps defensive works and maybe where Russia’s next steps are in this map we’re going to look at some footage we’re going to talk about Ukraine joining NATO and what zalinsky has said we’ll also talk about conscription and we will have a look at some footage of some strikes now yesterday I said if anything comes out I’ll tell you and we haven’t seen anything come out we got reports yesterday as I was putting up the video as I was recording it that attacks launched from Ukraine to Russia we got reports of both Russian pages and Ukrainian pages of these launches for the second day in a row and that air defense was active well for two days in a row it’s seeming that these have being engaged we haven’t got any footage out of them being engaged or them hitting anything and as I’ll speak about in length in tomorrow’s video because it would just push this one way over the line Russia is having a lot more success and Effectiveness against GPS guided weapons and you know from what we’re seeing if the last two days if both sides are reporting the attacks are on the way out and no strikes it’s seeming to be true again we have strikes being reported currently going on in Odessa from an attack this morning I’ll show you on the map of course this is Ukraine and the capital of ke Odessa is the Port City down here one of if not the most important region in this war if Russia was able to get it and for Ukraine to able to maintain this for not only war strategy but also for the economic reasons as well now something we do need to look at is the footage that has come out from a strike on the 29th against Odessa of said to be an i scander cluster munition so this was either some are reporting in the morning some are reporting in the afternoon more are saying in the afternoon down on this like esnard here we can see a cluster munition go off here and cluster munition are a horrible thing in general and people saying this was directly targeting to produce Mass civilian casualties as we know there has been a lot of Civilian casualties in Odessa from Russian strikes now of course there’s always going to be speculation of this was going towards a Target was hit by ew or by air defense and has then gone off somewhere where it wasn’t originally targeted and vice versa you’ll always have the arguments on both sides I’ve actually reached out to my lawyer friend you’ve uh you’ve probably seen on this channel a bit and I’ve just asked him and I’ll get an answer within a couple of days about like what does the law say if something is going towards a military Target it’s engaged and then it goes into a civilian area what does the law actually say about this so I just want to get an answer here but again uh clust ammunitions in these areas is bloody terrible of this going off was it directly targeted or not again I’ll leave that up to you now uh let let’s speak about NATO before we get into the maps because I know once I do the maps you guys are out we’ve spoken about Ukraine joining NATO and the EU and all of this for basically two years now what we have been very strict on on this channel is saying that there’s no way in our opinion or my opinion that Ukraine is going to join NATO without the war coming to an end and Ukraine has SW the war will continue until it clears its 91 borders and what we know is well that means it will continue for years and years and of course joining NATO then gets pushed back and back and back as well as you know you need the majority of countries in Nato one can veto for another country to join such as Ukraine and that Ukraine does need to meet those minimum requirements to also join NATO and I got this message and we’re going to she I’m going to do a video all about the diplomacy of this War and what like foreign diplomats are looking at as far as where this goes but I think your are very right to question long-term Financial commitments to Ukraine if Ukraine is to rebuild and particularly rebuild its military the war needs to end for the War uh to end a peace treaty needs to be signed now regardless of where the Border ends up whether it’s on the 1991 borders including Crimea and um dones or wherever that ends up a peace treaty will have to be sign for just not a reinvasion at some point uh do you think the Russians will agree to any peace treat allows Ukraine to rebuild a modern powerful NATO style military I really don’t so of course they’re going to be stuck in this very hard spot regardless of where this border Falls and the joining of these the rebuilding of military and we’ve heard Russia talk a lot about the demilitarization of Ukraine as a goal in this but I just want to know your ideas on where you think this will end and how it will end but zalinsky has said this this Rec um sorry reported by European prda zi NATO will only accept Ukraine as a member after Victory which you know we know but describing timeline for Ukraine’s Nat membership I believe we will only join NATO after our Victory I do not believe that NATO will accept us while the war is going on for some NATO members it’s risky and for some there is simply skeptic ISM because of it of course it’s risky if Ukraine was to enter NATO now Article 5 can and would be uh enacted by what NATO has lined out and next thing you’ve got a major war between we’ve got potentially a war between two major nuclear Powers now people say oh you can’t throw that but that would be where that ends up I’m not saying then therefore those are going to be fired but of course this takes the war from localized to massive very very quickly the question of joining NATO as the Secretary General has correctly stated is a question of majority and the majority is a political issue in order for Ukraine to be politically accepted into the alliance we need to win so pointing out what we have said that Ukraine would need to clear back to wherever it to stay to those borders as my friend has said a peace treaty signed and at the end of the day whether it’s the borders or not Russia has to be involved somewhere except if you have some Black Swan event and Russia completely collapses which is looking less and less likely actually the longer the war goes on with alliances being formed with other countries and how Russia’s economy has been so stable against these sanctions uh when uh it comes to Ukraine’s membership of the alliance zansi believes that no one will raise questions about the compatibility with NATO and the level of the Ukrainian military that said it will still require at the end of this war tens hundreds of billions of dollars to raise a military and we’ve heard numbers in the high hundreds low trillions of money to actually rebuild Ukraine so NATO membership and many people saying you know NATO now it’s just not whether you like it or not I just believe this is not going to happen anytime soon and even when the war ends it may take several years of diplomacy before we actually see any movements on that I’m not being a prick I’m just being realistic which is basically my entire life but let’s actually have a look at the maps here we have Ukraine the center the capital of ke the red areas occupied since 2022 and the purple since 2014 the green areas of course where Russia has been at some point has either been pushed out by Ukraine or has had a withdrawal in some areas bit of both now where we want to look at is dones oblas as this will be in the click B thumbnail click BTY title but we can see that this girthy boy has become more girthy out expanding control near sov out from o out from Kik as well and like we spoke about yesterday that this area in here was likely to close up and that it has of course taken this part of this road that connects down to poov and this major road that led between poov caramic and costantina has now been taken in between these two this is an important change on this map and this is a large amount of ground estimations since OCT oober here people have put at about 260 270 Square km of ground which that is a lot so let’s have a look at what maybe the next advancements here will be now many people including I thought that it would be an Eastern advance to try and push somewhere to in the direction of poos where others are saying no it’s going to be more of a northern advancement to try and cut off Supply into New York and eventually into chass of Y so a movement in chesava and a movement towards these areas and this intersection here will have this area down here which has held as we can see since 2014 will come under major limited Supply to get these main Roots now before we have a look at where those are and what suriak says about this let’s have a look at what war mappa has spoken about with the defensive lines here and look at the defensive lines and see what we can see so wpp says this in Dones Ukrainian fortifications are more fragmented compared to the long connected lines seen in zapia defensive features like dragon teeth and anti- vehicle ditches are largely absent leaving the area more vulnerable to the current Russian offensive pressure and I’ve said before war mappa is very very conservative for Russians gain Russia Russian gains I can’t speak but let’s have a look at what he says connected lines in zap and compared to the lines in Don so of course here is a here is cemic showing on this map see what I mean about much more conservative towards Grow Zone and gains but you can have a look at the connected lines of course these are the Russian ones the connected lines this is roboty or areas you’ll be oh excuse me familiar with but you can see the lack of connection of some of these from his assessment but you can also see that heading in the East you’re going to come up against a lot of these that are of course in you know uh fighting off what is to be a western offensive well an offensive from coming from the West if you’re there but if they were able to push down to the south or north you could Bypass or take away the effectiveness of a lot of these defensive works this is similar to what a lot was saying around in the South that if Ukraine was able to push through somewhere like roboty that if they were able to spearhead down in here to then clear East or West excuse me takes away the effectiveness of where the trench systems and these defensive works are actually built up now I’ll show you the second part of this one on the right so here has drawn some of the lines of these mutually beneficial to each other now this is the main one we’re going to be familiar with out from ay and uh Kik out here as well but we do know that these are being built up over the last few months and many have pointed that this should have been done a long long time ago so we’re going to be pretty wordy in this part before then we have a look at some other interesting changes on the map including one that Syria had a couple of days prior over a Ukrainian gain up in the north but as of curiosity the Russian spear ha is located 24 km from the 2014 line in Aviva so back down here and only 26 km from poov however this is not the Russian priority Target for now like we just spoke about before the breach of the Ukrainian defenses in osney has produced a situation of confusion in the Ukrainian which is unable to stop the Russian Advance the capture of oari is very reminiscent of the caption of basna which allowed the Russian army in 2022 to advance towards buckmoth solidar and the bastions of Lisa chunk and seones what is expected after the capture of this new Bastion of by Russian forces around oet there is a high area that runs along the railway and extends towards the north taking this and the latest advances in the area into account we can predict the Russian advances would develop as follows and as we can see this push northwards let’s have a look at this High Ground this is OAR K here I know I’ve lost the things we can see this High Ground out from oy and High Ground out then to the north of where Russia is moving currently again this isn’t Mountain as this is sort of up and down but still in the flat ground any High Ground is still incredibly important now stick with me we’re going to have a bit of bloody wordy bit of willly speaking and we’ll zoom in on this map get an idea and I’ll go between the maps to part one the Russian army will will continue advancing westwards to toward uh towards proz so if we have a look on this map proz sitting down here sorry sorry so part one here the capture of this town will allow Fire Control to be established on the Ukrainian troops located east of kivy reservoir which will hinder Ukrainian Logistics in this area which will withdraw as the Russians continue to advance along that axis simultaneously Russian troops will advance along two major axes so we’re still looking at number one here out towards prz and onto these reservoirs out as well pushing back and back first of them will to Target the road Junction located at Highway h32 which connects poos and constantina this will be a serious blow to the arrival of reinforcements and supplies to the Second City as poov is the epicenter of the epicenter of the dbass leaving only the road to kabor as the main logistical route where are we talking about we are talking about this part just here of course talking poov and we already know this main route that comes down to poov in here has been cut this road is very good this one to push out to proes and then a push out to here which would then cut this road and its ability to then let’s get rid of these to come all the way up into constantina as well as then into kator and that limits the supply in here as this road here is already limited by Fire Control in areas uh the second of the advances will be towards the north targeting the town of kovi it is expected that the advances will allow the reopening of Highway 20 access taking the towns of oscal Mill and this one here so let’s have a look at where this is K no and taking these towns in osland hill and whatever other towns in this sort of New York Direction in here as we can see from number three and four then shown on this map now let me bring up part two part two after Ki Russian Advance will continue northwards reaching the town of zorya the natural barrier of this black Reservoir uh will prevent Russian troops from advancing further due to the danger that Ukrainian Army could easily bombard them from constan Andia so what we’re talking about is we look at constantina and this major reservoir sitting in here shown on this map constan nka Reservoir here bombardment from there the situation must be unblocked by advancing along the h32 highway located in the high area at the same time that the Russian forces consolidate and expand control over the highway cross Crossing so this Crossing up here which would bypass said Reservoir this Advance will possibly be the most complex given the extensive defenses that the Ukrainian command has been preparing there for months since the capture would mean reaching the out uh the Southwest outskirts of constantina so if able to get through these areas you’re going to be up in constantina which your next step then is into areas such as Buck mot and closing off this Frontline area here which has held for the entirety of the war and in parts then 10 years or more than now so this is then part three speaking about this NE The Wanted next steps into Constanta this is the reservoir here this is oos this is Kik to give you an idea um these advances would leave the Ukrainian agglomerations of tetk New York and this so those areas down in here where you’re speaking about um in a kind of semi in which only one supplyer would remain the capture of chass of Y in bakut in the following months by the Russian army would leave the Ukrainian troops in a critical situation at the at a time when Russian troops would surely begin to attack New York pushing them from the defense lines of 2014 so push on New York this of course being chass of Y up here and then that major invelopment of oh my god of these areas this analysis is is a long-term prediction which will take the rest of the spring and part of the summer furthermore it does not take into account the development that may exist on other fronts so the magnitude of Russian advances is difficult to calculate so if Ukraine start pushing somewhere else then troops have to be moved or if Russia want to launch their North group of course things are going to change however you can’t predict the future however it will not have the same relative ease as capturing AER the Ukraine Army is sending many reinforcements to this area to stop the Russian advances that will eventually slowed down in addition to the Ukrainian defenses built possibly we’re talking about a Russian offensive Horizon this year after which there will be a return to the Russian defensive posture in order to recover from wear and tear being on the advancement you have large losses and of course a lot of equipment being not only used and destroyed but just heavy bloody wear and tear so Russia will have to sit back in uh defensive for an amount of time on the other hand the arrival of American Aid would give a new Boost to the Ukrainian Army to counter offensive on several fronts and recover as much as possible from the losses suffered in recent months so that we know that American money is going to start flowing in this week next week and we will see we will see how that will affect it but of course it’s going to have an effect to some degree and could slow down this or change how it’s going again you can’t predict the future however the situation of its forces is worsening it’s meeting Ukraine day after day especially due to troop problems that it is suffering and the new mobilizations will have to solve if the Ukrainian government really wants to continue the conflict for several more years in optimal conditions now I’ve said this before that no country is showing that it will have a victory within years or years the Ukrainian offensive last year what was built up more than offensive this year with new armies raised all this new equipment whatever for capturing you know maybe 10 km in some areas same with Russia this this war could continue for several years we know Ukraine is getting money from the us the thing that the US what France the EU can’t fix is they cannot fix Manpower issues if they’re not prepared to deploy soldiers and personally I don’t think that NATO is willing to deploy soldiers NATO at the end of the day is us us will never leave NATO because if they leave NATO they don’t have any reach or influence in Eurasia at the same time that NATO will never go against America because they need its nuclear sort of umbrella as well so again we can’t predict the future but this is what suriak and I agree with this assesses the Russian um like senior command’s overall picture is here but let’s actually just compare these two maps you’re probably only looking for this but we can see maybe a little bit more out in the north here but again very very close I actually believe shows maybe less of a capture through here than the mod map but situation Al have Russian army Advance west and south of solivo as shown here towards sakil and noov respectively in addition troops continue to advance Northwest of aser take control over new plantations adjacent to the Eastern outskirts of this moreover Uh Russian forces take full control over caramic following Ukrainian Army withdraw towards here and increase the pressure over the central trench system which is almost surrounded so push out back to here for Ukraine as well Ukraine moving back into these other areas and the idea that the grand lines of communication were going to be cut in here as this becomes more and more girthy I think is less and less likely as this pushes it means air defense and systems have to move back and we’re going to see more and more of these Fabs being dropped in areas like this yes I I talk about Fabs a lot as I believe it’s one of the weapons having the most effect anywhere on the front line now let’s have a look up in let’s actually have a look at a Ukrainian and come up into the Northeast here now we we won’t talk that far yet but in turn KN we then see this become green in here as there is a Ukrainian gain in here now suriak map actually showed this uh about 3 days ago showed this advancement in here so faster than their own map but then he has another update here showing more territory wrong one more territory uh for what he said last time as well in very similar same area situation during the last two days ukra Army continued its momentum and recaptured new positions east of yka so as we know when you push somewhere they’ll push somewhere else like a Chinese finger trap bloody thing now let’s come up into K Livia as we haven’t seen any change on this map up in here so we have kiss livka down here we did see Russian advancing through here no change on this today but Surak says this situation at Northeastern front during the last two days Russian army made smallant is the west of kka and south of the locality in the direction of this so trying to capture this next town down in here as well as the rest of kis livka and close up this Gap here the ultimate goal in this Northeastern front being kopans still we hear more and more from Ukraine about the danger of this area and a major Russian advance of the north group here again we just don’t know now we’ll come back down into buak mot or aiva 1.0 now let’s have a look here here we see let’s come down ivanovski here this push out that is happening on these areas that we we spoke yesterday that on this micro District out here of chesar that Russia wasn’t able to consolidate and got pushed out sitation east of chesa Russian army made new advances South Mount Bubba and reach the water channel in this axis for the first time meanwhile clashes with Ukraine Army are taking place at the last point of this Mount so in here of course The High Ground but built up into ches ofia we know Russia would really like to gain that area now we have one more big change in this map now crar hika completely just ignored by this map which I think is disappointing for The credibility of this map as we know we there is footage of Russian vehicles coming down here dropping troops off into here and into here we know that it’s geoc footage it’s released by Ukrainian Pages as well so anyway then we come down to urani front which we had updates on but there is a I’ll say semi L chunk of ground we’re speaking 1 km which in the days of this war is a hell of a lot you know every meter is fought for a Russian advancement towards urani closing up area that Ukraine Got in their counter fensive don’t have a surc upd today but he did have one the other day now robot here this is so hard to know what’s going on cuz some maps say that this is more like this and that there’s not really many troops actually present here again we don’t know but what I do have for you is a photograph from a drone just showing the absolute destruction of roboty here and again in such flat areas like this where everything is just flattened that there may not be much troop presence like we saw in Minka just due to their being bloody zero cover but again we will continue and see where these Maps change we don’t have any updates down in the Heron ablast with the island as well I’m so waiting to see some gated footage of this now something I want to speak about before before we then speak about the f-16s is what would you guys think if the f-16s were based what what yeah in somewhere like Poland Romania Slovakia Hungary the f16s were based there they fly into Ukraine unarmed land at an Airfield Fuel arment and then go onto the front line do you think NATO would be willing to go for that we know the biggest threat to these f-16s one it’s going to be in the air from bloody S400 but secondly is going to be where the hell do you store them it’s going to be very obvious building bunkers building runways for these planes we’ve seen the majority of Ukrainian planes recently that have been destroyed have been destroyed on the ground by Russian aanders or tornadoes could they sit in NATO unarmed fly in arm and fuel touch and go and then continue on I don’t know but what do you think of that do you think that could be something that Ukraine is looking to do with NATO and these systems now we have a video here of f-16s uh with the in the Netherlands with F-16 H sorry with Ukrainian PS it is really super fun jet to fly I’m not saying that a MIG that I flew before is super boring but speaking about you know the F16 compared to a mig29 the F16 is definitely more agile it easily moves the moment you think of something Denmark [Music] I felt proud not only for myself but only for the for the rest of the guys and that we are doing it now I know how much work has been done to have this this that would be a big thing you know to go from flying migs in in Ukraine an ex Soviet country to now going into you know the EU NATO to fly bloody [Music] f-16s has been updated several times so we didn’t exactly know the we know these aircraft get updated here and there and saying that these are an updated version that is compet competitive sorry against the Best Western Fighters here it’s a very very modern aircraft it’s competitive with the Best Western Fighters and uh I’m sure that the Ukrainian Air Force will benefit from that the biggest boost here is the motivation to go back and keep fighting with new Jets we are in this together and we have a lot going people interesting to see the effect that these have the country that probably knows best about how the targeting of these will go down and I’m not I’m guessing not willing to share is turkey as turkey has you know S400 systems and f-16s and to my knowledge which could be incorrect has actually tested not live of course but S400 Radars against these specific aircraft so I guess we will see but again I think so much hangs on the balance of these and the way that they will built up way more so than the leopards Abrams chalis as well now we need to talk about conscription as we spoke about Manpower issues in Ukraine and the fixing of this now this has come out from the Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro Atlantic integration of Ukraine Olga that Ukraine will not forcibly return men of conscription aid from aboard so won’t be going abroad grabbing guys off the street lucks happening in Kev and out you go therefore there will be no restrictions for for return of Ukrainian citizens of any a gender or age to a Waring country but there will be no Pleasant solutions to war issues and let’s not forget that the war is ongoing and we must win it so any age or gender no forced return but what we do know is that there is some level of forced return which with taking away uh abilities for institutions for diplomatic reasons saying here as well Ukraine is adoped new law of mobilization and we need to understand to what extent we can replace skies at the front it is about the potential of mobilization accounting and information and this is the primary goal of our decision and as they point out here that suspend the provision of services for Ukrainian diplomatic institutions to men uh the law of mobilization the next day the government of Ukraine published rules according to passports for men of conscription age can be issued only within Ukraine so trying to get guys back on to the front line of course because we know there is a Manpower shortage difficult to fix and we have some people who could fix the issue or the na account saying why wouldn’t they go back and fight well if they you could go and actually help fix the issue as well as we have on Tik Tok some Ukrainian men being like I’m not going back and I look on the comments and stuff of this like I wish I could give up my citizenship I’m not willing to do that Germany has said that they may issued in some cases like temporary residency polander said they will help Ukraine but won’t like forcibly people so it will be interesting to see where this goes and how these Manpower issues are fronted I think this is the biggest issue facing Ukraine much more than weapons and funding and support from the West which we know is going through we know might be Rocky at some points but a Manpower problem very very difficult could there be ways to attract Western soldiers to Ukraine like post Western soldiers like the foreign Legions potentially we know there’s lot less going now due to other issues I don’t know uh we will we will see I guess anyway Legends I hope that you’re having a fantastic day I hope you’re looking after yourself I hope this one went a little better I’m feeling much much bloody better uh look after yourselves if you like to support me links down below if you want to join the PMC links also down below look after yourself I’ll speak to you uh tomorrow thank you bye-bye

G’day Legends, I hope you’re doing well, Today we talk about the Russia’s winter offensive and look at the war map updates.

If you’re new here thanks for coming across, I served in the Australian Infantry from 2014-2021, With a tour to Afghanistan as a crew commander of a Armoured Mobility Vehicle.
Upon my Return I was unexpectedly diagnosed with a Incurable and Inoperable Brain tumour that is slowly killing me. I was also awarded the Queens Order of Australia Medal (OAM) hence the post nominals after my name. Then Being medically separated from the Army I flew to Ukraine in 2022 for 6.5months and now make content full time. I really appreciate you being here Thankyou

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