Russia Advance In Several Directions, Is This Just The Start? – Ukraine War Map Analysis & News

Russia Advance In Several Directions, Is This Just The Start? – Ukraine War Map Analysis & News

good day Legends I hope that you’re having a fantastic day and a fantastic weekend and happy Easter out there for all that celebrate now we do have a lot to go we’re going to talk about the north group and a possible Northern offensive what would change the landscape of this war but it may not be that simple so we’re going to talk in length about that we need to look at potentially NATO involvement in Ukraine and what some other NATO countries are saying as Italy today said we don’t want to escalate any tensions and we won’t be deploying troops but we know that macron he’s out there saying there’s a lot of potential for this but right in the beginning of the map I did miss two updates uh on the map over the past 48 hours and I will correct that now now I just missed these I normally look all up and down the map and I did just miss these so we come across onto the map here we have Ukraine in the center the capital of ke the red areas occupied since 22 and the purple since 2014 of course the green areas where Russia has been either been pushed out or has withdrawn and blue is that but within two weeks now we’ll come down into the Don oblast here of course the here is have Diva now what I missed yesterday was a Russian advancement just out of per Mei so if we just go to yesterday and then we’ll turn this on we’ll just see that there is an Russian advancement in natalo here as well now while we’re in this area let’s talk about any advancements we have seen today so just out of we do see this closing up of this pocket that sits between nelski and per meki in here so let’s have a look over my specific folder on this now we have that advancement out here shown yesterday reiterated by Noel reports map here as well showing movement in the same area then we have two Surak map Updates this showing this same movement this map was then released today that’s why I relooked at the map in this area as as well as then this map here from Surak showing this movement here which is in the same direction as this Pockets this Reservoir is here so the Deep State mod map is actually showing more on this but you can see movement the same direction saying that during the last 5 days Ukrainian Army rented in the southern part of nelski so down in here um on the other hand Russian army began advancing in the pocket of perki so has been Ukrainian troops re-enter in this area as we know this was getting closed off at some point you can see on this map but also closing up that now I did miss 24 hours before another update now we come down in here into H blast and kinky and we can see an expansion of control here so don’t see anything yesterday day before I missed this advancement of Ukraine expanding the pocket here now this is still shown as Gray Zone I’m not sure not sure why the Ukrainian map isn’t putting this as blue we know Ukraine is present there we know they’re making some ground there unsure exactly on why that is but we come down into here we have then a Surak map showing the same movement this was released today situation on H on front during the last 10 days ukra Army widened the bridge head of kinky westwards this is a very very important area for Ukraine it’s the only place they have a hold on the hon Left Bank yes there’s Island down here but it doesn’t count as the Left Bank as far as here if this was to be taken by Russia back it would be very difficult to get something there again especially sorry up here again especially if you were to try and have a cross and create some sort of Landing we do have more maps to look at as well as geolocated footage of strikes and also flags being raised we’ll talk about that in a second what I want to talk about is the north group now we hear more and more about this but I hear it more from UK Ukrainian sources Ukrainian bloggers and Ukrainian Pro Ukrainian intelligence such as like the isw they’re all the ones talking about this as well as that trailer that was said to be released by Russia but I could only find it on unofficial Russian pages but to give you an idea of what this is is Ukraine is saying that in HK belgrad there is up to 70,000 Russian troops in here for across somewhere into sui and hariv now we know there must be some real threat of this as you UK is building defensive positions in sui and hariv as well as in Regional areas outside of the city centers are evacuating civilians but what I want to explore is how effective could this be is 70,000 enough what is the overall tactical and Strategic Benefit of something like this we have many articles like this that Ukrainian officials saying there somewhere between 35 and 70,000 Troop quick operation come in and out but an operation to take haki vumi is in different order so of course yeah 70,000 not every single one of those is going to be a combat soldiers now something I will say is I haven’t seen any satellite imagery to show buildup of 70,000 people that you can’t just hide in some tree lines as well as we haven’t seen the amount of Ukrainian strikes going back across into K and belgrad that you would think you’d be having if you knew that tens of thousands of troops were actually building up there yes we are seeing strikes into belgrad and KK but not on the amount you’d think that you would see so I put this in my telegram you should come and join North group Ukraine says there will be 70,000 Russian soldiers for an offensive soon is it a large Northern push to capture kiv or sui so massive push across here like we saw on the 24th of February and try and Surround an area take areas in here is it enough troops to take the area I believe no is it enough to bypass some defensive works and maybe set up a uh Bridge head somewhere that you can then leave it out of then yes potentially a small P to divert Ukrainian assets for an e in advance and create a buffer zone we heard Putin talk about this when we saw the Ukrainian crossings from hariv and sui back into Russian territory that Putin said we need a buffer zone on the border now what this would do cross over the Border even 5 MERS Ukraine is going to have to divert a heap of assets into these regions building defensive Works in case something larger happens and or to try and push the Russian forces back we know Ukraine has a massive Manpower and weapons shortage currently and that would divert things away from the East allowing Russia to continue their advancement West no plans for a push but a buildup to force Ukrainian Army to divert assets this is the same you don’t need to cross as long as that’s there you get the same effect and these were some of the largest ones a propaganda piece for more support we have seen many informational battles go on in this war that is saying they’re building up all these troops therefore we need more we need to Rally more support from men within the country to come and fight too is there a possibility of that yes of course there is but why could this be effective well for Russia right now offensive actions it is the perfect time to do this we know Western money has been allocated but we know that the weapons and the shell shortage to make a difference is going to take at least a couple of weeks before it starts back filling onto the front line so if Russia is able to move in areas seiz and hold land for a few months then the offensive actions for Ukraine and the time frame they have before the end of the year really start mishing so so you may actually take away by staying on the offensive as Russia you may void Ukraine’s ability to actually launch a 2024 counter offensive if it was possible at all of course if Russia can continue advancing through the end of the year that will have huge effects on the informational space heading into Democratic elections as well and if Russia is able to maintain the offensive take ground hold it over the winter into early year that gives Russia months and months to dig in and reinforce more defensive areas which we have seen have been very successful so if Russia is to launch a large attack offensive somewhere whether what we’re seeing in the East or we’ll see in the north maybe this is it maybe there’s more to come Ukraine is saying that it will be miday early June so still a week or maybe a month away but I couldn’t see a better time to do that strategically then now and another bit in this as well is we are hearing more and more about a Ukrainian 2025 counter offensive a lengthened front line exacerbates Ukraine’s already thin Manpower issues and where Russia will have the advantage ongoing this war is just having more bodies to man areas so in that we mentioned a 2025 offensive which I think is more realistic than a 2024 offensive Ukraine has had big shell shortages russer is on the offensive those shells those weapons will still take a while to make a difference and we know that it is too late in the year to recruit and train for an offensive midye and to the end of the year maybe cutting short how much you have before then the weather sets in but Jake Sullivan advisor US National Security then has said this to financial times today echoed Ukrainian hopes that the country will move forward to recapture the territory that the Russians have taken talking about a coun offensive in 2025 of course the G7 and allies are developing a military package to Ukraine withth up to 50 billion dollar this is from profits generated from frozen assets now those assets are still generating money interest whatever no one’s really comfortable yet to touch those because it may undermine the security of the dollar the pound the Euro so we will see I think that would be a bad idea long term well beyond this war could have effects he’s also said Ukraine will have the capacity to hold the line as it faces a difficult period in the war over the next months so we will see but as you can see on the map in a second Things Are are moving we speak about Manpower issues and I feel like a broken record always speaking about this but to my opinion Manpower issues in Ukraine is the biggest problem facing a Ukrainian offensive and defensive actions weapons can be fixed funding can be fixed training for troops that you have can be fixed to a degree if you’ve got people to replace them but if you’re out of people that are willing to volunteer you’re relying on conscripts and to the sake of hundreds or tens to hundreds of thousands of those have left the country and may not return you’re going to face large issues and I was just thinking about this I know I’ve suggested things like this before but Russia had Manpower issues beginning of 23 with very high losses early in the war and of course large withdrawals and the front line being all over the place with no really good defensive Works what really saved Russia from a lot of backf and actually had a front offensive in that was Vagner PMC of course funded through a billionaire oligarch of course with State money feeding in with a degree of plausible deniability what it did do is it gave the Russian forces a break to go back train refit sit in defensive areas and then move on to what we have seen now and it has seems since then Russia has had a better ability for defensive works and time of training and I have thought about and I do wonder if either a Ukrainian billionaire with some deniable funds that would feed through the West for a deal and then onto this could raise some level of PMC Money Talks people don’t like to talk about this but money bloody talks a lot of guys left foreign Fighters left Ukraine because they weren’t being paid but if there was real money on the line yes it would then become mercenary blah blah blah like Vagner but would there be an option there to increase Manpower if something like that was on the table of potentially tens of thousands of men I don’t know I’ll put it to you and see what you think about something like that now I know we looked at the maps at the beginning let’s have a look at the maps again so we’ll come down Don ask obla here and we will have a zoom in on then the adiva front now if we turn this on so we can see the movement over the last 24 hours you can see there has been a lot of movement to the west of olivka out from Bachi as well closing up this Gap this pocket in here that we’ve been drawing across for a couple of days between Oar and Kik as well as this Northern push out from this town up here so this is significant now people saying this isn’t significant with everything I think this is a good bearing actually for many aspects in your life if this was the other way how would you be saying it so if these were Ukrainian gains would you be saying this is massive the front lines collapsing or would you be saying nah this isn’t that much not much is happening now depending on that it’s a good bearing to see what significance it has on this like with many aspects in your life if you think oh that’s that’s not offensive well if want said to you how would it be so again for the amount of movement we see on the map with Ukrainian or Russian over the past year and a half this is significant in a day closing up important areas in here and from the Ukrainian bloggers that I watch and other bloggers talking about the risk of this being cut off through here every day that this widens is becoming less and less likely so let’s have a look up in here as we do have some GE Lo at footage and we had some yesterday we have our own adiva folder here now what we do have is this video of a Russian flag being raised on a blown out building here now this is then jur located just on the out skirt here around this ring road so let’s zoom in around then Ring Road so just in this location in here now what we did see yesterday about here this is where that line of Ukrainian troops was retreating out of here and then was struck by the artillery so we do know that there was a withdrawal out of here and then that’s where that flag has gone up today to confirm the advancement and the closeup of this pocket we have further on this you can just see this is from the deep state of where this was then geolocated as well then Noah reports he also confirms the Gap close in here from Kik Oar as well as up into here where that GE located footage was then we have two map updates from suriak here now the first one is showing the Takeover of the Gap and the town up here Russian army took full control over this locality and then as well this one is later on in the day and shows more of these movements we’ll just zoom out that Russian army made new advances north of asy northwest of Sol so just here in addition troops Advance South this Village in the direction of noski moreover Russian Force advancing the western shore of the derna river towards umk taking control over the first trenches so in the way of umans over here so a lot of advancements in this front on the day and these are all lining up fairly closely through here and that these are significant movements since the crossing of Bachi since the take of oy this is ballooning out and uh opening up the front lines for further actions in here it will be interesting to see what Ukraine’s counter is in here as a lot of ground is being taken in here and of course this starts putting pressure on other areas that this is flanking then around so be interesting in somewhere to I guess watch and see what continues on this front line one last piece I will say is just out from solivo this is then when we saw the ABS taken out now I don’t have the Gil location of it it’s just another tank taken out that said we that confirms the ABS are still on the front line goes against what was being reported that the ABS have been pulled back but it does show that the best equipment is being thrown at the front line here to try and stop these movements now then we’ll come down into let’s go actually to Buck mood we have a couple updates in here now nothing is being shown on this map what we do know is it was being confirmed that Russia has making moves right up onto the outskirts of chasia here is still having problems on break in but I have a bit of G located footage here which is so then we do see this bridge has been blown up here now this bridge sits at this geolocation you will see that there is no Bridge here this was a newly made like temporary bridge for Crossings of course to get down onto this track through here to supply onto the Eastern side of chass of Y so this is the Eastern side so cross right here now it was said that Russia struck this and took it out that was off a Ukrainian page but I think it is likely that maybe as well Ukraine may have taken that out themselves to to slow down a Russian Advance if this was moving through here so I haven’t seen anything specifically hit it but both of those are realistic for what may have happened to this and it would make sense now let’s have a look at surak’s update in Bak mood so this is the aanav ski Road through here we have klish get down here Russian took all the territory at last 10 days ago between ivanoski and klish kka so see this blue here this was 10 days ago Surak is saying that Russia then has taken this back we’ll see then if the Deep state map updates that we know they are slow on some updates and the one of the slowest areas well I’d say the slowest area is CR and arofa now we have seen some red in here we haven’t seen any of this like check marked red for a week or more in here we do know there’s been multiple geolocated footage of Russian movement here and this still doesn’t meet the amount that we know exists in here and the industrial areas but we have other Maps Noah reports Ukrainian map here that we see see these two roads are these are these two roads so we can line up where the industrial works are up in here so they are saying across the industrial works up into this area up here so showing something more like like this in here of ground being taken a lot more than this map shows in here per purposefully for some reason this map is just not wanting to show Russian advancement in here as well we have geolocated footage in this region so we see on the industrial Zone here this footage I’ll show you in a second Russian army took full control over the refactory plant in the center of crno nariva so if we have a look at where this T intersection is this is said inter section that in this industrial area we have a look on this map sorry on this footage we have then a Russian flag being waved by a soldier down in here so I’m not sure why this map isn’t wanting to update it he’s showing some movement but we know it is significantly more than is actually being shown now no livar no changes shown on this map here but we do have then a suriak map in here Russian army continue advancing Northwest of Noka and enter the first houses of Paris scovia so this will be unconfirmed at this point because both aren’t showing it but seeing these first houses in here this will be significant because that these all run in like a linear formation of these towns and would have a large effect if there was a Leap Frog Town town in areas such as wadar as well we know of the Railway support up from marap and that new rail being built in these areas now there’s no changes down in R botney there’s a lot of footage and a lot more coming out that the area down here is basically a abandoned and indefensible but again just wait and see we’ll wait for uh further confirmation geolocated footage what we do see is up in the Northeast so today Russia made a lot of ground on the front line uh relatively speaking we see up from klit kka that Russia has closed up this gap of this other town in here being confirmed by the mod map also being confirmed by then the Noel reports Noel reports I believe is showing a fair bit less control see where this road comes out this is this road wrote here so he’s showing a fair bit less than the mod map is then showing then we have the Surak situation on uh Northeastern front Russian army took full control over the locality of cka it’s the same area again hard to line up but showing fairly similar and a close up down so actually the mod is showing see where this road bends that it connects so it should maybe connect through there if the mod map is showing a Russian gain there then we can say that it’s most likely that is what has occurred but as far as the maps that is up to speed I believe on all the maps I may miss some bits and pieces but I do my best to get there now we hear a lot about Western troops going into Ukraine we hear about these man parishes I actually think the man parishes are not spoken about enough everyone focuses on weapons and funding and this and that and I’m not saying that isn’t important but if you don’t have Men Behind the weapons you don’t have men to train it you could give all the weapons in the world I think that’s going to be a more I think the further this go on the more that’s going to become an issue if it’s not fixed some way and I rack my brain trying to think of ways that that could be fixed but the head of Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs who’s in the US gave an interview to BBC World spoking speaking about NATO and Putin but uh when asked what extent Russia POS a threat to Poland that he did not think President Vladimir Putin would be Reckless enough to attack a NATO member State we’ve spoken about this before that we hear more and more from Biden macron zalinsky everyone over the past 6 12 months that Putin won’t stop here he’ll keep moving through and I don’t believe that’s really backed up by much that’s not me saying therefore let’s not support Ukraine what I’m saying is I just don’t see any concrete evidence to that claim militarily as well like if Russia without let’s take a take nuclear weapons aside I don’t have any tactical relevance in a Frontline War they have strategic diplomatic and any the world but they’re struggling in here they’re struggling in a div and badachi and you’ve got bloody how many kilometers at least a thousand KS to go before you even get to the borders of NATO and then you’ve got big problems I just don’t think I just don’t think that argument holds up I think there’s better arguments to be had than the fear mongering of if we don’t stop it here they’re going to be rolling down your street in Prague whatever referring to the words of French president Emanuel that he does not rule out anything when it comes to the presence of Western troops in Ukraine said it is right to put Putin in a situation which he is not sure what the West will do and we don’t know what Putin’s going to do next and Putin doesn’t know what the West is going to do next and that is you know done on purpose that said Western troops in Ukraine I don’t know I don’t know if it will happen it will help alleviate Manpower issues even in rear line a rear Echelon positions just to then be able to send men to the front line maybe that’s what France is is looking at I think at this point in time it’s more of a political thing for macron if the US the UK isn’t willing to back troops as well who and Germany overarching of NATO I just can’t really see that happening but let me know you think potentially but it would lead to a new chapter in the war if NATO troops were in Ukraine more so than you know they are in elements of advising at the moment but if they were there as troops well that changes the war dramatically and we’ll see maybe for a good thing maybe for a bad thing but either way we will report Legends uh this video was very difficult to get through I just couldn’t speak today but look after yourselves and I’ll see you soon thanks bye-bye

G’day Legends, I hope you’re doing well, Today we talk about the Russia’s winter offensive and look at the war map updates.

If you’re new here thanks for coming across, I served in the Australian Infantry from 2014-2021, With a tour to Afghanistan as a crew commander of a Armoured Mobility Vehicle.
Upon my Return I was unexpectedly diagnosed with a Incurable and Inoperable Brain tumour that is slowly killing me. I was also awarded the Queens Order of Australia Medal (OAM) hence the post nominals after my name. Then Being medically separated from the Army I flew to Ukraine in 2022 for 6.5months and now make content full time. I really appreciate you being here Thankyou

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