Putin ‘doesn’t believe he can secure Ukraine’ as Kharkiv could be last offensive|Maj. Gen. Tim Cross

Putin ‘doesn’t believe he can secure Ukraine’ as Kharkiv could be last offensive|Maj. Gen. Tim Cross

there are rumors that zilinsky and Putin might even meet one another fairly soon I mean I picked that up last week and had a conversation actually only yesterday now I I don’t know whether that’s true or not but there are some rumors um so you know one has to try and imagine in Putin’s mind what is he trying to achieve here I’m not convinced that he really believes anymore that he can secure the hold of Ukraine but I’m pretty sure that he will not give up on what he’s got and he may well try and achieve a bit more through some sort of you know opening up this counter offensive or indeed putting more pressure on in the south and east where the pressure hasn’t gone away hello and welcome to Frontline for times radio I’m James Hansen and today we’re talking about the latest on the war in Ukraine and I’m delighted to be joined by Major General Tim cross former British Army commander and military logistics expert General cross welcome to front line thank you very much it’s good to be with you again first of all I just wonder if you can give us your assessment of of what we’re seeing at the moment in the northeast of Ukraine where Russia are appearing to make some pretty significant gains yes they are and um it’s always difficult to know you know the scale of of what’s actually happening but I think you know to put it into context we’ve had quite a long period of you know I hesitate to use the word stagnation because a lot of people are being hurt and a lot of things are going on but in terms of the front line moving backwards and forwards it’s been relatively stable um but during that period of time two things plainly have been happening one is that Ukraine are suffering from the fact they are short of stuff material Logistics and so on and particularly artillery ammunition and and the other you know issues that have been very very publicly uh talked about U but also Russia have been building up their own capability they they have undoubtedly uh raised their game they’ve learned a lot the Russians historically learn a lot when they when they’re involved in this sort of stuff and I’m not surprised actually they are putting in some sort of offensive at the moment I don’t say that to be clever but I’ve been we collectively I think have been talking that for quite a while they’ve got an opportunity as a window which is open with the American problem of not you know providing their aid Etc and others being pretty slow and therefore they’ve got this window of opportunity to push in further seiz more terrain how far they will want to push whether they’ll really want to capture KH and so forth is you know matter of debate but I do think it’s quite a difficult moment for Ukraine um and it could turn out to be quite a significant moment in the whole of the in the whole of the conflict I mean lots of people are saying the right things Grant chaps the defense secretary was saying only this morning that you know we are 100% behind Ukraine others are too and that whatever they want to do we will continue to support them um and those you know politician will say the right things but of course you’ve got to give the ukrainians the ability not just to withstand what’s going on now but also to be able to conduct their own counter offensive later on this year if they do re you know really want us to secure regain the territories that they’ve lost thus far so it’s it’s a you know it’s it’s an important moment we’ll see how this offensive develops over the next you know couple of weeks or so and we’ll see whether Ukraine is able to hold out but it could be I think it is a difficult time for them what do you think Russia’s operational objective is in the Northeast I was reading some analysis by The Institute for the study of war and they were saying they believe Russia are trying to create a buffer zone in the Northeast to try and limit Ukraine’s ability to strike targets inside Russian territory for example belgrod and as a result they think it’s unlikely although you obviously can’t rule it out and you don’t want to be complacent that Russia will make a a direct push for for example harv City what’s your reading of it yeah I understand that and I don’t you know I don’t think any of us you know really knows what the outcome of this will be but I I I’ve read too about this idea of a buffer zone but actually it’s not that it’s not that big in terms of the ability for the Ukraine to strike deep into Russia um with the new weapons that are coming Etc I can’t honestly believe it’s going to make that much difference I think securing territory undoubtedly is is an you know is an aim of Russia and they still haven’t given up on the whole idea of taking over the whole of Ukraine and not just you know chunks of it on on the east or in the north so I suspect this is I would say from a military point of view this is a not unexpected offensive trying to achieve maybe potentially a breakthrough uh to push through the Ukrainian defensive and as things develop you then seize your opportunity um and if the if the if the front line does give them the opportunity to press on and and Surround or secure you know the city then that’s probably what they will do I mean if if you are a Russian why wouldn’t why would you not want to do that um you what they want to see is is Ukraine basically capitulate and if this puts further pressure on zalinsky and and the and the uh you know the leadership in Ukraine then I think that’s what the Russians will continue to try to do do you think the gains we’re seeing Russia making in the northeast of Ukraine at the moment are a direct result of the delayed American military aid well I wouldn’t just put the blame on the Americans I think collectively we the West have been you know we’ve been providing a lot of a lot of equipment clearly and a lot of support and I don’t want to I don’t want to diminish that but nonetheless all that we’ve given them as the months have gone by since the invasion is the ability to basically try to hold the line to defend themselves that has been a gap in the last few months it has had an impact there’s no doubt about it the American um delay on providing the uh the ammunition and equipment that they’re now now beginning to provide and indeed other nations too have been slow in delivering Aid and material that they’ve promised undoubtedly is given a window as I said earlier a window of opportunity to to Russia so I don’t think there’s any doubt that it is linked to that now it it also has to be said that Russia itself when you’re fighting these campaigns you reach in military Parliament what they call a culminating point where you’ve pressed on you’ve done all you can do and you’re taking casualties and your Logistics are stretch and all sorts of other things and you just have to pause you have to sort of pull in your skirts get things sorted re re um you know redesignate and and and reframe everything that’s going on and then press on again and I think Russia has been at a culminating point for a while uh they’ve now put in all sorts of measures to enable them to conduct this offensive so it’s linked to the American issue and the rest of the West issue but I don’t think it’s entirely as a result of that but it’s not a surprise and it’s interesting that we’re speaking today when Secretary of State Anthony blinkin is making a surprise visit to keeve we understand according to us officials that artillery attack and missiles and air defense interceptors that were included in that recent Aid package are already reaching Ukrainian forces but do you think it is feasible that the tempo of deliveries can be increased well I I was listening too earlier on some of this you know this conversation and indeed with again with our defense secretary and I I don’t want be unfair but you’ve got to separate out the political um you know comments so so yes I’m sure I’m sure nobody’s lying at the end of the day some equipment will be arriving but the issue is how much and how quickly and how how can they push on with the momentum to make sure they deliver what is necessary um to a first of all of course defend the turf that they’re now defending but then also to prepare them for their own offense ensive you know this is this is a lot of equipment um uh but it’s you know the Americans are a big organization they’ve got the lift the sea lift and the airlift to to deliver this stuff but it will take a while I I don’t think the scale of what we’re talking about here I don’t think to me to my mind we’re talking weeks if not a couple of months before the you know the sufficient combat power has been delivered to enable Ukraine to really be able to conduct offensive operations for themselves so they’ve got to they’ve got to hold out so what seeing arrive will be no doubt will be rushed to the front and in particular the artillery ammunition and the uh air defenses and the attacks and so forth will be very important I don’t want to diminish that but the size and scale and and uh you know timelines Associated that I think we we shouldn’t get we shouldn’t be too optimistic I think it will take a while before it really begins to make a difference I suppose one of the other questions is what more can the Americans do it’s interesting that the Biden Administration says it’s working on a new $ 33 billion do package in which Yachts mansions and artworks belonging to Russian oligarchs would be seized and sold to fund military and humanitarian aid for Ukraine I suppose it does beg the question though why has this not happened before now yeah well I mean it relates to the whole of the sanctions business doesn’t it and I don’t think I I don’t think sanctions have worked really I don’t have a problem with it I don’t have a problem with targeting individuals but the the scale and the ability to do that and really you know generate sufficient resources to make a big difference I’m not convinced is you know is a big issue um I I think the um you know the real issue for me is is not also not just about equipment and and and material Logistics I mean clearly I come from a background of logistics and Logistics is undoubtedly the key to this it’s the ability to of your uh weapon production and Russia has ramped up their weapon production you know significantly um and you know now spending probably 6% something like that of their GDP and so on they have moved to a War footing the West has been very slow in doing that but it’s not just that if you want to conduct serious counter offensives you need to have the commanders and the in place ability to bring together an all arms battle you need to bring together your infantry and armor and artillery and your engineering support and your Communications and um you know the other aspects of logistics and so forth to enable you to to conduct operational level campaigns and that takes a it takes time to prepare and B you’ve got to have the commanders in place who know how to do this and understand how to do it and I think Ukraine has suffered from the fact that although they’ve done some fantastic stuff tactically and their what we call the moral component their fight fighting Power has been very impressive I’m not convinced that they’ve really got to the point yet where they’re able to conduct operational level campaigns they’ve been plugging gaps they’ve been holding out in terms of Defense but they haven’t been able to conduct conduct serious counteroffensive operations at any sen you know at any serious level so the equipment yes of course it’s got to arrive and yes you can Target you know individuals and try and create money and so on but at the end of the day you have to be able to turn that into fighting Power that delivers on the battlefield um and that’s not easy Russians actually traditionally have been very good at the operational level particularly during World War II but they have taken time I think to get their mind around this again they’ve had to relearn some lessons and I do think they are now in a position where they are being able to put you know more pressure at that level let’s come on to the recent changes in military leadership and defense leadership in in Russia obviously sery shyu is out as defense minister he’s going to head the security Council instead what is your reading of Putin deciding to move someone who has been and remains a long-term Ally of the Russian president yeah he is he’s been Minister for I think about 12 years um the guy’s who’s replacing him bellof or I never quite know how to pronounce these names but anyway he’s a he’s a little known really little known technocrat but he has been flourishing he’s he’s very good on economic stuff and he’s been advising Putin probably for close on 20 years or so um he is a he is a man with spreadsheets but at the end of the day you know I mean I would say this wouldn’t I but this war will be decided by the ability to generate the combat power through the procurement and and the you know ability to deliver weapon systems and artillery ammunition so forth and I think bringing him in in a way uh strengthens Putin’s position and and you know as he’s now been reelected he’s taken this opportunity to move a a few people around um but I do think this appointment of of the new defense minister makes sense um he is a guy I think who you know potentially could make a difference when you look back at some of the appointments that we made in World War II for example there were some really interesting times when people individual people have had a real understanding of production and how to how to how to generate um you know efficiencies and Effectiveness and so on in Industry did make a big difference so I you know I don’t know this guy much I mean I’ve read a bit about him and I’ve heard a bit about him but I it’s it does seem to me to be an appointment that makes sense now where um suar has gone he did obvious you say he he’s repl replacing the the head of the security Council so he’s not being completely kicked out but he has been you know he has been downsized in a verdict comers what do you think it means for the future of General gasimov there’s been some speculation that the new defense minister may come in and want to see a change in in the military command structure as well do you think that’s feasible yes it is I I I think you know anybody that’s put into a new appointment like this um will look around and decide who are the people that he can or cannot work with I mean we shouldn’t forget we you know the we UK went through an extraordinary number of generals in World War II I mean hundreds of generals came and went pretty quickly in some places and a lot of the time it does come back to individual chemistry and confidence and trust and these things take time to build now I don’t know who else he’s got in mind if he has got anybody else in mind but I wouldn’t be surprised if he didn’t make some changes uh bringing bringing fresh thinking in and bringing in people that he personally uh you know as I say knows has trust in and he thinks will be able to deliver whatever it is that he now you know wants to crack on with so changes potentially absolutely um will they be significant and make you know will he make wholesale changes I don’t know I mean Russia does have a habit of doing this um and we’ve seen a lot of changes over the last couple of years because clearly this campaign has not gone well so you know we’ll have to wait and see but I wouldn’t be surprised if there were some changes when do you think we will see a fresh wave of Russian mobilization a lot of people had expected it in the weeks immediately after Putin’s so-called reelection do you think we will see it now I think that yes is the answer I I think Putin having been reelected you know trying to put yourself into the mind of of these sort of guys is not easy clearly but you you can imagine that he will now having been reelected make these changes he wants to see significant success this year year and and we know that he can only only be able to bring that about by ramping up production getting all the war production levels and so forth but also he has got to mobilize some more people particularly if he still has the intent of trying to secure the whole of Ukraine if his if if his in his own mind what he’s thinking is let’s grab a little bit more territory you know do this buffer zone that we were talking about before or not um and push and not push on it you know beyond that and then just sit there and say to zinski you need to negotiate and and come from a position that I’m not going to give up the Eastern provinces I’m not going to give up Crimea you’re not in a position of retaking that territory and therefore let’s negotiate there are rumors that zilinski and Putin might even meet one another fairly soon I mean I picked that up last week and had a conversation actually only yesterday now I I don’t know whether that’s true or not but there are some rumors um so you know one has to try and imagine in Putin’s mind what is he trying to achieve here I’m not convinced that he really believes anymore that he can secure the hold of Ukraine but I’m pretty sure that he will not give up on what he’s got and he may well try and achieve a bit more through some sort of you know opening up this counter offensive or indeed putting more pressure on in the south and east where the pressure hasn’t gone away um and Ukraine is struggling going back to mobilization Ukraine is struggling to mobilize people I mean a lot of young people are not signing up and quite a lot of left um and there are you know there there’s a lot of conversation going on in Ukraine about what to do about this so I don’t think there’s any doubt in my mind that that Putin wants to put increase the pressure ramp up production put these new people in place and then as you say mobilize more people in order to be able to maintain the pressure if not increasing it’s fascinating what you said there about the potential and I appreciate it is only speculation but the potential for Putin and zinsky to meet how would that even work in practice I mean where would they meet for instance somewhere where hopefully you and I would not know nor anybody else in the media it has to be done you know quietly behind the scenes um and and it has to be done out of the spotlight of the media and and the world’s eyes so you know I don’t where would it be well there there are options I mean clearly some of the Nordic countries have traditionally hosted peace talks um I don’t I don’t know is the honest answer but uh it would have to be there would obviously be preliminary meetings having to go on and and you know conversations being had but that happens in all of these conflicts I mean it’s like Israel Gaza there’s lots of conversations going on and you have you have officials at certain levels that get involved at certain stages before you ramp it up to your foreign ministers and and so on until you then have the heads of state meeting so there’s there’s work to be done I don’t think it be I I don’t think I can’t see it being done in Russia or Ukraine so you know bellarus potentially I suppose uh but maybe somewhere else you know in the region um I can’t can’t see them both of them flying off to be honest you know long distances uh I suspect it will have to be on the ground in the you know in the neighborhood in vertic Commerce but it I I stress it’s only speculation I I have picked it up I picked it up from a couple of sources so I’m not saying it’s it’s not happening it’s certainly possible it may not be probable at this stage but you know it is potentially the case and if we look at what Ukraine can hope to achieve realistically in the next few months I mean it’s interesting despite the Russian advances in the Northeast Ukraine contined to have some success striking targets within Russian territory and inde needed striking bases in Crimea for for instance what do you think realistically is a good next few months for Ukraine I think that actually is you know the key I don’t I don’t I don’t want to be dismissive or or you know be less than positive about Ukraine we all want Ukraine to do well U and you know we can talk about what does Victory look like in inverted Commerce but if they can regain territory on the ground then you know fantastic but they have got to have that as we were discussing earlier but I think what will put pressure on Putin is the fact that people as I say people people like our own foreign secretary David Cameron others uh in NATO and and indeed the Americans are now beginning to say to Ukraine you can use these weapon systems to strike deep into Russia and therefore weapon systems like the attachs like you know air power drones and so on and so forth giving them the ability to strike deep inside Russia not just into Crimea but deep into Russia and why wouldn’t we have allowed them to do that at the end of the day you know Ukraine has been hit hard their infrastructure in particular the energy infrastructure uh you know and and so on so I think if giving them the ability to do that and allowing them to do that is a very important message and if they can begin to cause serious trouble deep inside Russia then I think Putin maybe you know put in a position where he’s having to scratch his head and think you know we’re not making progress on the ground they have they have the ability to hit hit deeply and um you know we’ve got to somehow bring this thing to an end so I do think yeah potential serious change no it’s really interesting you mentioned that shift of of stance in terms of how Western supplied weapons can be used by the ukrainians but I know that’d be much of our Frontline audience who will be incredibly frustrated that throughout this conflict it feels like the West have maybe been one step behind what Ukraine needs at that time whether it was providing anti-tank missiles at the beginning saying no that’s not going to happen and then we provide them whether it’s saying yes okay now you can use Western supplied missiles to strike into Russian territory even to go back to our earlier conversation you know whether we should use seized Russian assets to fund the war effort in Ukraine why do you think it is the west and maybe it’s a perception maybe it is the reality seems to be one step behind I I think it is a reality actually I don’t think it is just a perception um what’s gone on in the minds of our Prime Ministers foreign secretaries and so on I I I think particularly places like Germany people people genuinely were very concerned about this you know this this campaign War spreading beyond the boundaries of Ukraine and people took Putin’s messages pretty seriously and and so they should um so when he started talking about you know if you give them this stuff I’m going to do X and you know talking about tactical nuclear weapons and all this all this business people you know having to face some tough choices and initially saying to themselves I think you know let’s give Ukraine the ability to to defend themselves but we need to be very cautious about allowing them to you know take a much you know give them much more ability to strike deep into Russia because of the potential of what that may lead to um you know we’ve got supplies coming in through places like Po Poland we’ve got NATO forces deployed elsewhere and I can understand that I mean I i’ only be clever about it leadership is tough and making some of these choices is not easy but I do happen to believe that we have been very slow in allowing Ukraine to do what has been necessary again I don’t want to you know har back to history too much but you know look at World War II when we were you know holding out in those early years 1940 Etc and we took a long time for the Americans to send us what was in course in those days you know we had to lease it and pay it all back hopefully Ukraine won’t have to pay it all back but we had to and and it took us till only a few years ago to repay all this stuff from World War II but it does does take time and I think the Americans you know at one point were probably thinking well we’ll we’ll help Britain hold out but the ability to you know do we really want them to do other things I don’t want to you know mix mix World War II too much but I do think at the end of the day we have been one step behind and um you know this is from a Ukrainian point of view this is a war of national survival um and um I I think we need to give them the ability to really try to strike deep and conduct offensive operations whether they will succeed or not is another issue I can’t see Russia being defeated that’s at the end of the day I come back to the the real or I think the reality that I just can’t see Russia being defeated um and therefore Ukraine we have to give Ukraine as much ability as possible to to strike deep and to cause Putin to pause himself and to think about okay how do we bring this to an end and it’s in our interest to make sure that happens I don’t happen to believe that you that Putin is about to you know have another crack at the Baltic states or whatever I think um you know he his I just can’t see making decision to take on nato in that sense but I do think that if he does PR reasonably well in this campaign The Gray Zone undoubtedly will open up he’s doing it already to some degree the cyers space uh you know attacks the and so on I think the pressure supporting people like Serbia over issues like Kosovo I think he will continue to to create trouble um and therefore the more we can do to ensure that he doesn’t come out of this too well the better but we have been being behind the power curve in my view I mean I I I I stress I don’t like criticizing senior leadership you know publicly because it’s tough business but overall looking back and looking at where we are today I think it’s I think we have been behind the PowerUp Major General Tim cross always a pleasure thank you so much for your time today on Frontline okay good to talk to you thank you for watching Frontline for times radio for more click subscribe on our YouTube channel you can listen to times radio and you can read more about the war in Ukraine and Global Security with your times digital subscription

“If they can begin to cause serious trouble deep inside Russia, then i think Putin can be put in a position where he’s having to think…we’ve got to bring this thing to an end.”

Russia’s Kharkiv push could be the end of Putin’s war to take Ukraine as word emerges he is considering suing for peace before Western aid can strike Russia proper, Maj. Gen. Tim Cross tells #timesradio

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