Putin’s forces ‘hollowed out’ as Russia’s military ‘can’t keep up’ with high losses | Philip Ingram

Putin’s forces ‘hollowed out’ as Russia’s military ‘can’t keep up’ with high losses | Philip Ingram

the Russians have lost since January an average of 966 troops a day um 20 plus tanks 20 plus pieces of artillery and all the rest of it their defense industrial base can’t keep up with replacing that um they have replaced a lot of the stuff that they lost in the first 18 months of the conflict but even at at the rates of losing that mean they can’t keep that up so that’s hollowing the Russian forces out hello and welcome to Frontline for times radio I’m James Hansen and today we’re going to ask a fundamental question how can Ukraine win the war from here let’s be honest it’s been a very challenging six months for Ukraine with Russia making advances and with the laay Western military aid however we have seen before the momentum in this conflict swing from one side to the other so what needs to happen now for the momentum to swing back in Ukraine’s favor we’re joining me we have a regular guest here on Frontline former Colonel Philip Ingram MBE a former military intelligence officer with more than 26 years of experience in the UK armed forces and a for former NATO planner he’s now a military analyst and commentator Philip always a pleasure welcome back thank you to have me again first of all do you accept the premise that the momentum can swing back to Ukraine oh very much so you the momentum was with Ukraine the whole of last year and it only whenever their counter offensive sort of Hit the roadblocks uh did the momentum start to slowly swing at a tactical level from a one-dimensional perspective I’ll cave at that back in Russia’s favor where Russia is now gaining small elements of territory so let’s talk this through stage by stage obviously at the moment we are seeing Russia making advances notably in harv or blast what needs to happen in order to limit those advances well this is where Ukraine needs the wherewithal to be able to Halt the Russians I think the Russians are making Advantage uh advances but I think the ukrainians are trading a bit of space for time because rather than holding it hard and suffering large numbers of casualties of personnel equipment and everything else it’s easier to hold for a bit withdraw slowly um fight a defensive battle whenever you’re ATT trting the enemy um so much more so the Russians have lost since January an average of 966 troops a day um 20 plus tanks 20 plus pieces of artillery and all the rest of it their defense industrial base can’t keep up with replacing that um they have replaced a lot of the stuff that they lost in the first 18 months of the conflict but even at at the rates of losing that mean they can’t keep that up so that’s hollowing the Russian for forces out and trading a bit of territory that territory is not strategically significant um it’s largely been unoccupied by um the local people uh and therefore the ukrainians know that they can take it back whenever they’ve got the weapon systems and the military wherewithal to be able to Halt the Russians turn them around and push them back that’s the next step and as zinsky has said time and again you know they need more air defenses more air defense interceptors in order to protect for example harv City yeah well the the two elements of that one to protect the cities and protect the critical National infrastructure um we’ve seen that start to get hit um and that’s only in the last couple of months before that the ukrainians were knocking knocking out at least 96% of all Russian attacks now they they’re only been able to knock out 60 70% that’s down to lack of air defense missiles down to lack of ammunition for their air defense guns and everything else that’s where the critical you the the aid package from the United States and from Europe because not all us our defense missiles is critical and that’s where that needs to flow in quickly and it’s starting to come in um the second bit is uh to be able to then take that air defense uh without denuding what you’ve got over your cities and over your critical National infrastructure but to take an air defense bubble and put it over the front line somewhere so that you’re protecting your land forces from the new weapon that is having maximum effect a new Russian weapon which are the Glide bombs you know an artillery shell has got um you 10 15 20 kgs of of of of high explosives in it the Glide bomb’s got 500,000 kilg of high explosives in them and that when it hits a defensive position people don’t survive they don’t get out um whereas your defensive positions are built to withstand artillery attacks they can’t withstand that so until ukrainians can push that threat back and that’s the only way to do that that air defense bubble we’ve seen them practice by trying to have Patriot missile Ambush sites where they’ve successfully shot down a number of Russian aircraft but that’s left the pitch at missile batteries very vulnerable indeed until they can get something to protect that then you that’s a very dangerous position to be in and the bit that we’re waiting for to prot to get that air defense bubble are the infamous f-16s with the right weapon systems with the pilots properly trained to use them and you know it I think it’s shown the complexity of it that those Pilots have been training now for six seven eight nine months it takes a lot of time and and a lot of those are experienced Pilots it takes a lot of time to take your experienced pilots and not just teach them how to fly a new aircraft but to fight the aircraft there’s no point in flying it if you can’t fight it and to fight it with all the different weapon systems on it and how they all come together cuz the last thing you want is to get these new shiny they’re 20 plus year old aircraft but um or older but compared to what they’ve got new shiny aircraft and you lose half a dozen on your first two or three sorties so they have to be in a position where they can use them from a confidence perspective and it’s creating that bubble once the ukrainians are confident they can create that air defense bubble over the parts of the front line that they want to have an effect on then we’ll see things changing I’m glad you mentioned the f-16s because they are eagerly anticipated could they be the kind of thing that does shift the momentum back in Ukraine’s favor very much so um I I think they are key um and I think that’s why the Russians made their move on um haave why the Russians are um prosecuting their operations quite hard on the on the front line through the the rest of the front line the front Line’s enormous 1,00 plus kilometers I think the whole of the British military would have difficulty dealing with less than 10% of that um if we deployed everything we’ve got so you the the scale is enormous um but the Russians saw this very small window of opportunity before the Western ammunition came in before the f-16s came in and they know that they will push their ability to fly their fix wi aircraft with those Glide bombs on push them back and possibly out of range of affect affecting the front line and that’s where the Russians went for it as well as splitting the Ukrainian Reserve forces so the Russians would be forcing would be facing um less uh protection on the the front lines elsewhere they haven’t exploited that properly but that’s what we’ve seen beforehand you know even if the ukrainians their defenses are weakened down because they don’t have the the resources there ukra the the Russians haven’t been able to properly exploit them and whilst Ukraine is in this defensive phase of the war is there more they can do to innovate on the front line because you know from the outset they have been very Innovative for example their use of fpv drones you’ll star to see Russia become a bit more Innovative now in terms of using um dirt buggies and dust bikes and things on the front line to improve uh Battlefield sort of Mobility do you think Ukraine can be more Innovative I think Ukraine from an innovation perspective they’ve they’ve torn up all of the doctor manuals that we’ve had and the West has looking at Ukraine and going oh my goodness cracky they’re teaching us so much so the fpv drones the way they used the nlaw missiles when the um Russians first came in and the javelin um anti-tank missiles and everything else the way they’re setting up um different ambushes around the place we haven’t seen the ukrainians use heavy armor in a massed perspective yet but you can’t do that until you get that air defense bubble around it but there is an awful lot of innovation the big area that they’re innovating in that um we had forgotten completely about is what I call it the operational level now the Tactical level I.E the front line the fighting that’s going on there relies on the operational level to set the conditions for that so to make sure that you’ve got the safe environment for suppliers to come in um your reserves to build up um and and be prepared new equipment to come in etc etc etc um and the ukrainians are having a massive effect in attacking Russian um oil production facilities their manufacturing capabilities defense manufactur capabilities um air defense bubbles that they have around their their bases and stuff before there’s then Ukrainian attack in um and attacking their morale as well by you we we’ve seen what 30 to 50% of the Black Sea Fleet the final missile carrying ship has been sunk um or allegedly has been sunk um that’s having a massive morale effect a massive command and control effect and therefore is hollowing the Russians out from behind and we’re seeing the the ukrainians giving us a real master class and doing that um and within that they’re using long range drones they’re using converted light aircraft into long range suicide drones they’re bringing in a lot of new technologies that um haven’t quite hit the headlines yet um in helping them do that sort of thing but they’re going back to the good old fashioned tactics of sabotage and um you getting people on the ground to to work for them um and that’s causing the Russians some very very real headaches can see that growing um in uh it its effort as ukrainians recognize they’re ready to prepare for um taking the initiative back on the front line again and one of the things we’re hearing a lot of calls for now is for Ukraine to be allowed to use Western supplied weapons behind Russian lines and and okay you’ve heard noises from David Cameron for example and even analina burbach the German foreign minister saying that you know they should move in that direction but the US still very much saying no not at the moment is is a shift in that position a prerequisite of of Ukraine regaining momentum do you think the only country that I’m aware of that’s not allowing it to happen with our weapons at the minute of the United States why the United States is being so fixed I’m not sure because the Russians are launching a large number of their attacks um that’s affecting the Tactical operation from with inside Russian territory Europeans French Germans I think haven’t put a a complete bound on it the Brits are supporting um and I put statements out to support ukrainians using British weapons and I know ukrainians are using British weapons inside Russia um to very very good effect the trouble is what they need are those weapons that can be used in uh at at concentrations of troops much better and those those are the Americans supplied long range attack thems missiles and bits and pieces so whenever the Russians concentrate their artillery across the border in Russia but are firing into the offensive operations that they’re carrying on in har the ukrainians can’t attack them with the sort of mass that you’d want and they’d have to put an awful lot of effort and move that from other parts of the front line leaving other parts of the front line um more vulnerable uh and this is where if the Americans allow them to use the American uh weapons across there it would stop the Russians being able to exploit this safe territory for them or or almost safe territory indications to me suggest that ukrainians aren’t as concerned about that militarily as they’re saying publicly and we have to remember information and the way it’s put out is is a key part of this operation I always remember sunu the great Chinese philosopher in general in his book The Art of War said old Warfare is deception old deception is Warfare I’m I’m paraphrasing but that’s sixth Century um and he’s right um so a lot of the statements that we’re hearing out of people will be designed to have an effect one way or the other to influence how operations are going um if the ukrainians were really concerned we wouldn’t see them flying in capabilities to hit oil fields and to hit other bits and pieces around much deeper inside Russia would see them concentrating on those bits that are affecting the Tactical operations on the front line haven’t quite seen that yet so um you there their right to raise their concerns they need to be able to use those weapons if they can do that’ll help the ukrainians regain the initiative again um in a in a much quicker way um but uh it’s it’s politics and that’s the trouble politics and where it goes and of course war is diplomacy by other means so they’re all linked a lot of analysts say fundamentally the way to hurt Vladimir Putin and to get him on the back foot making concessions is to go after Crimea if you look at for example the Kirch Bridge what would it take to destroy the Kirch bridge I mean people talk about maybe if Germany provides tourist missiles they could be used against the Kur Bridge yeah tourist missiles can um there’s a number of different solutions that that that can um if you get the storm Shadows within range and again you get the f-16s in that can provide an u a uh a an air bubble around an attack package going in with Storm Shadow or scalp which is the same missile but the French equivalent um into area where they can launch them um at at the kir bridge then that that’s distinctly possible there’s that magic F16 again um that that air defense bubble around things that’s that’s the key to everything so there’s a number of weapon systems that they could use to um attack kirbridge uh the Russians close it every now and again because they see the threat that’s coming in and they could go back to the good old um truck bomb or some form of some equivalent in that you the the Ukrainian s soe operations are they’re their initiative is fantastic um they don’t need to close it at the minute because I know or I believe that they think that doing that will be a clear indicator for what they’re going to do elsewhere and will cause the Russians to um you know get get more prepared across the whole of the front line so they’re they’re keeping that up their sleeve ideally they want as many different weapon systems that gives them the options to to um uh to close it in different ways um and and ideally destroy it and take a DI but ukrainians are concentrating quite a lot on on Crimea at the moment you know their attacks on the sixth Fleet their attacks on air defense um and then that those have been backed up with attacks on airfields and they’re trying to deny the use of the airfields in Crimea a lot of those airfields have been used to launch the fix wi aircraft that have got the Glide bombs on them there’s a bit of preparation going on at the moment so you the indications are that um Ukraine is starting to prepare the battle space but it it’s it’s a long and very deliberate effort for what’s going to be an exceptionally complex operation and away from the front line are there other things we should be looking out for in terms of ways that Ukraine can take the fight to Russia I mean it was interesting recently the times were reporting how Ukrainian special forces are actually involved on the ground in Sudan well there’s all manner of conflict at the moment because Russia also has a presence there and is trying to use smuggled gold to fund the Russian war effort against Ukraine so are there other things we should be looking out for here there are um I think they’re going to be difficult to look out for you Russia has got its fingers on so many different pies around the world um it it relies on the sort of par criminal or pseudo criminal Enterprises or completely criminal Enterprises that has got through throughout Africa and elsewhere to fund the oligarchs or funding what Putin’s doing from a war machine and all the rest of it um we’re also seeing levels of political support and you this um increasing alliance between Russia China North Korea and Iran is really worrying and I don’t think this is necessarily up to Ukraine to deal with that I think this is up to the wider International Community to deal with that because that’s a much bigger threat for everyone not including Ukraine um is there anything that Ukraine can do specifically themselves I I I think just keep doing what they’re doing and and making sure that they’re continue to get the Western support because at the minute Ukraine in their tactical fight and their operational fight with the Russians are protecting us in Europe and those in the rest of the free as we describe as the Free World um if Ukraine loses then the financial cost to us is going going to be phenomenal because there’ll be new Cold War during the the last Cold War defense budgets were at 6 to 7% of GDP our governments are bulking at two and a half our talk of three um and if Russia wins even more um then Russia will prepare to go elsewhere but if Russia’s allowed to win you’ll get other nations like China will turn around and go okay so if we attacked and took Taiwan by force we only have to wait 3 or 4 years until the Western political um Hiatus collapses completely and we’ve got away with it so can we afford that let’s prepare our our financial C coffers to do that and that’s what we’ll do and it’ll stimulate more uncertainty and more instability around the world that that would then have a massive effect on our economies as well um you know most of the world’s um semiconductors are made in or the microchips are made in in Taiwan if there’s a war in there just think of the impact that that would have have on our Global economies it it’s it’s unbearable and that’s just the start of it assuming Ukraine can do all the things we’ve discussed in the coming months over the course of 2024 where and when does a Ukrainian counter offensive take place oh um I think 2024 what we’ll see is Ukraine um stabilizing the front line continuing their operational level Special Operations of um executive type attacks behind but increasing those um to have a great a great effect um as they then start to practice putting those little air defense bubbles around to scare the Russians push their fixed wi aircraft further back um but they’ll do that over a number of different places um in the front lines the Russians don’t quite know where Ukrainian main effort will come in we then see Ukrainian attacks in different parts of the front line to keep the Russian um uh reserves split so they don’t know where to concentrate on and potentially reinforcement of the Ukrainian Bridge head that they got across the den Pro down at here or potentially you know a Commando type raid into cria and capture a tow hold of territory there knowing the Russians would have to move Ground Forces to try and deal with that and the psychological impact that that would have um after that we then see you know more logistic routes being interdicted railway lines the K Bridge uh that’s the time to remove the K bridge and then put an air defense bubble over the part of the ground where you’re going to have a proper armored effect but before that armored effect see the ukrainians using their bomber aircraft to bomb the defensive positions and the minefields and all the rest of it that they’re going to put their ground Engineers through to prepare that you know the last time we came across that was during the Gulf War and you know the the Western allies bombed the Iraqi defensive positions for over 30 days to try and weaken those defensive positions before they put Engineers through on the ground ukrainians haven’t been able to do that yet and the defensive positions they’re fighting through are stronger than we’ve seen in any conflict ever including the second world war so the need to do that and then once that’s happened that’s when the ground force is going to go just finally Philip do you think there’s a risk that we are becoming too pessimistic about Ukraine’s chances and perhaps that’s because we’ve forgotten some of the fundamentals that yes okay it’s been a very difficult six months and more Western support is needed etc etc however given what Vladimir Putin’s objectives were at the start of 2022 given where Russia is now Russia has failed in those objectives and do you think we sight of that sometimes I I I think we do from a com commentary perspective you know Russia has failed strategically it’s failed to um disate the zalinsky government to capture um keev to put a puppet government in to have Ukraine as a puppet of um Russia and the same that bellarus is that’s what they wanted they wanted to stop NATO expansionism NATO’s grown by two countries since this has happened um Russia has been tactically pushed back from huge SES of territory um to focus in in the East yes having a little bit of success um in what’s going on but I see that as Ukraine trading space for time as I’ve said beforehand um and now Russia’s gone back to what Russia always does and Tred to get into an attritional War to make it as long as possible to get Ukraine fatigue into the West because they understand Western politics and how that can set in and that’s what we’re seeing Ukraine fatigue coming in so Putin is exploiting that more and more the best thing we can do is redouble our support and our effort for Ukraine and embolden Ukraine to continue to protect us because that’s what they’re doing they are sacrificing their lives to protect us philli it’s always a pleasure thank you so much for joining us stay on front line Thank you thank you for watching Frontline for times radio for more on Global Security and the war in Ukraine you can listen to times radio take out a digital subscription to the times and click subscribe on our YouTube channel

Philip Ingram joins Times Radio’s Frontline.

📻 Listen to Times Radio – https://www.thetimes.co.uk/radio

📍 Subscribe to our channel – http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCTjDhFuGXlhx9Us0gq0VK2w?sub_confirmation=1

🗞 Subscribe to The Times https://www.thetimes.co.uk/subscribe/radio-3for3/

📲 Get the free Times Radio app https://www.thetimes.co.uk/radio/how-to-listen-to-times-radio/app