The High Price of Deterring Russia

The High Price of Deterring Russia

this is NATO’s Eastern line of defense tensions are running high and here in the Baltic states the military Alliance is building an advanced presence to counter one country Russia have the intention to trust NATO and is a question how much opportunities we will give them while troops on the ground are a big statement there is a number behind the scenes that’s far more significant 2% 2% that’s the share of their economic output that NATO members committed to spend on defense but for a while countries didn’t get anywhere near that number and under multiple administrations the US hasn’t been happy about it they said well if we don’t pay are you still going to protect us I said absolutely not the threat from Russia means that is starting to change we have no time we have to be prepared as fast as possible now some are asking if 2% is even [Music] enough this is pabade military base about an hour outside of vilus where drills have increased and units like this one are training together with American soldiers [Music] our society as they call is vacinated by Russian imperialism uh long long years ago so we understand we need to be strong to deter Russian the Baltic Nations have been calling for a permanent presence for NATO troops and that is really aimed at deterring any sort of Russian aggression pointed at NATO or its allies by creating this more forward leaning and permanent presence right at the border there you have different countries NATO members that are taking the lead in each of the Baltic states so you have Germany in Lithuania Canada in lvia and the UK in Estonia and the idea is that if Russia were to attack any of those battle groups it would potentially have to confront a reaction from any of the NATO Nations now NATO is boosting that presence increasing from Battle groups of around a th000 troops up to brigades three or four times the size and Germany is leading the way with plans for a permanent Brigade in Lithuania this base is going to house some of the 5,000 German troops arriving in Lithuania over the next few years in those Barracks will be stationed allies or Partners who are coming for exercise or stationed here in Lithuania this year we’re already opening uh third infrastructure site or military Garrison and that German presence is significant because for the past decade the second biggest economy in NATO wasn’t even close to meeting its defense spending goals that commitment dates back to 2014 when Russia invaded Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula that year NATO countries promised to spend at least 2% of their GDP on defense within a decade when the pledge was made just three countries the UK Greece and the US met the target in 2022 the year Russia launched its full scale war in Ukraine seven spent that much this year 18 countries or a little more than half are expected to reach the target the US contribution Remains the largest by far followed by Germany the arrival of German soldiers means a lot for Lithuania that gives a big signal to our neighbors from Eastern side that NATO is strong and allies are ready to defend each other our plan to be ready in 2027 to OST here whole German Brigade this is a big shift for Germany the government says it will hit 2% of GDP on defense spending this year for the first time since the Cold War and in 2022 days after Russia invaded Ukraine the German government announced a 100 billion Euro special defense fund that’s at a time when the German economy is flirting with a recession but also it’s controversial in Germany in any case there’s a significant pacifist Lobby and these people are not happy about the levels of money that are being spent on defense and supplying Ukraine with weapons much of that defense budget is being spent on German Weaponry made by the likes of rhin metal and hensold companies that are benefiting significantly from the outlay Rin metal for example was valued at a little over4 billion before the war now it’s at more than 20 billion even as some NATO member states creep towards that 2% spending Target some suspect it may not be enough to deter Russia the figures are probably going to have to go a lot higher than 2% probably more towards Cold War level spending where we saw countries spending as much as 3 or 4% of GDP on defense let’s consider what this would mean in terms of actual spending using the US and its G7 allies if they were to reach such levels that would equate to more than1 trillion doll of additional commitments over the next decade that’s more than Germany and Japan’s economies combined former president Donald Trump’s disdain for NATO has added to the urgency I got $430 billion more for NATO from these other countries that were delinquent they weren’t paying this idea that Donald Trump could theoretically pull the us out of NATO is an existential issue for European governments his Focus during his presidency on spending by NATO allies in Europe chastising them and prompting them to try and spend more there is some acknowledgment in European capitals that that was the right idea while the picture across NATO is of higher spending there are sizable differences among individual countries take a look at places like Luxembourg Spain and Italy when it comes to percentage of GDP they’re lagging way behind the Baltic states and that’s creating internal divisions but also it’s a very complex decision for governments to justify because of course every Bureau that’s spent on defense is a euro that’s not spent on schools or hospitals many EU countries with the biggest shortfalls also have high levels of debt and budget deficits so to spend more they’ll need to make painful choices between deeper levels of borrowing budget cuts or higher taxes despite who will win the in United States in in November the question of burer sharing it will be more and more intensive for Western Europeans at least 2% would be a minimum Vladimir Putin has denied any plans to attack NATO long and Unthinkable option given the risk of nuclear escalation Now new m members are joining old allies aiming to have 300,000 troops on high alert all of that plus support for Ukraine will require a lot more funding [Music]

European NATO members are racing to bulk up their militaries in the face of Russian aggression and the possibility that Donald Trump, if elected in November, may try to pull the US away. But experts say NATO nations and their allies need to at least double their defense spending to deter any potential Kremlin threat.

In the Baltics, the number of allied troops is rising. It’s there that NATO is planning to station new brigades, with soldiers from Canada in Latvia, UK troops in Estonia and German forces in Lithuania. But all of these efforts, including continuing aid to Ukraine, will require a lot more funding. Alarms are ringing all across the continent about how much more NATO members will need to spend to give Russia pause, especially if Trump takes over in the White House. In 2014, when Russia invaded Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula and Donbas region, NATO members promised to spend 2% of GDP on defense. A decade later, only about half of them met that target. Though Vladimir Putin has said he has no intention of challenging NATO, experts are estimating that member states need to double their military spending to 3-4% of GDP, close to Cold War levels of spending, just in case.

01:14 Baltic Countries Prepare for NATO Soldiers
03:10 NATO Defense Spending Commitments
3:50 Germany Ramps up Defense Spending
4:44 Benefiting Companies: Rheinmetall and Hensoldt
5:12 Not Enough to Deter Russia
6:20 Unequal Burden and Painful Choices

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