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What’s next for Iran after Ebrahim Raisi died in helicopter crash? • FRANCE 24 English

  • May 20, 2024



What’s next for Iran after Ebrahim Raisi died in helicopter crash? • FRANCE 24 English

well let’s talk a bit then about rayi his legacy and what perhaps is next now for Iran Simon mabon joins me live He’s a lecturer in Middle Eastern studies at the University of Lancaster welcome to the program sir first of all do we have any sense at this stage as to who might replace RI as president and what direction they’ll take Iran so two questions the first one is the tricky one in terms of who can the regime get to stand that can generate the type of social and political Capital that it needs and I think that’s going to be really difficult in light of the the Electoral and the political challenges that Iran has been facing it’s got these huge social and economic challenges in light of a number of different issues and we know that the last election was one that had historically low turnout and so when Mr RI won he won with a very very low turnout and that’s in part because of a wider disengagement with political life that Iranians have been sort of moving towards after there’s been limited change now in terms of your second question where would this lead Iran well we know in view of the political structures of the Islamic Republic of Iran that the real trajectory the philosophical the existential political trajectory of the state is set not by the president but by the Supreme Leader by Ayatollah Ali and so it’s him who is really responsible for setting the future trajectory after uh the death of Mr RI and so it’s not so much about who would succeed Mr R as president but rather who is permitted to stand in the elections to propagate the vision put forward by Ali hamai indeed as you say president RI was not the most powerful person in Iran indeed that is Ayatollah Ali ham but RI was tipped wasn’t he to be a possible successor to the Supreme Leader now ham is reported to be unwell we know he’s 85 years old so does this untimely death now of RI leave some questions about the succession then in Iran for that real top job of the supreme leader yeah again we don’t know exactly well we don’t know exactly how how well Ali Kai is there’s been rumors about his ill health for years now but we do know as you say he’s he’s 85 he’s getting on and that the the position is the real power broker the the real essence of of decision making in Iran and so it requires a certain type of candidate a certain type of figure to step up to that position Mr Ry was being considered some someone who could be groomed for that having served as president he was uh he was sort of embodying the very philosophy of the Islamic Republic and that’s why he was deemed to be so uh so much of a leading candidate but we don’t know formally we don’t know officially we know that there are a couple of others including Ali Kai’s son who are perhaps rumored to be in the running but for now we don’t know exactly um who’s going to be who’s going to the favorite the front runner because Ali himself Ali Kamai wasn’t the the front runner himself so there’s always um questions to be asked the pictures we’re showing our viewers now are the latest images we have today from Teran people out in the streets to mourn RI following his death overall how do you think he’ll be remembered in Iran was he a popular president not particularly at all all um his popularity wains depending on on who you ask for some he was the quote unquote Butcher of tan given his role in the uh the brutal repression and killing of of prisoners by Iran’s founding father or set in motion by Iran’s Founding Father Ruto and that was enacted by Mr RI in the in the late 1980s and that is something that continues to to be a source of anger and and deep unpopularity for many in Iran particularly in in tan but for others he was he was a bureaucrat he was someone who was Towing the ideological line that was put in place by by first RI and now Ali hamai the current supreme leader and he was the regime’s man he was close to the IRC he was Towing the position that the Islamic Republic was taking and that doesn’t mean he was particularly particularly popular he wasn’t particularly charismatic but he was efficient he was a figurehead he was doing what was needed to be done but now because he’s died there will be these five days of mour and he has as the uh Iranian TV has covered ascended to martydom and he’s taken on this this important figurehead role now and just a final question also on that helicopter with the president was his foreign minister Hussein Amir abdalah Yan what do we know about him and the Gap he leaves then for that big role as the country’s foreign minister yeah he was an interesting character in that he was perhaps a little bit more charismatic than Mr R he’s a little bit more outspoken certainly far more beligerent and hostile in his his rhetoric he took a very hostile stance towards Israel we know that that that was feeding into a lot of these tensions because of the discursive rhetoric and the cycles of rhetoric that were emerging in the past few weeks and months so the foreign minister role is is an important war in that it’s a public facing role a very public prominent position um there have been some incredibly influential foreign ministers it’s a very important political portfolio in Iran and it’s going to be important to get it right but to get the right person to work towards a more peaceful engagement with the region not to to contribute to the the boning hostilities that we’ve been seeing in recent months Simon maon good to talk to you thank you very much indeed thank you

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, a hardliner seen as a potential successor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed after his helicopter crashed in poor weather in mountains near the Azerbaijan border, officials and state media said on Monday (May 20). For more analysis, FRANCE 24’s Nadia Massih is joined by Simon Mabon, lecturer in International Relations Middle East studies at Lancaster University.
#Iran #Raisi #crash

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6 comments

  3. The death of Ebrahim Raisi, the President of Iran and anticipated successor to the country's Supreme Leader, has significant consequences both domestically and internationally¹. Here's a brief overview:

    1. *Domestic Impact:*

    – *Political Vacuum:* Raisi's death leaves a leadership void in Iran, potentially destabilizing the political landscape.

    – *Power Struggle:* The succession battle may influence Iran's strategic direction and approach to ongoing regional conflicts.

    – *Internal Tensions:* Mass protests against the country's theocratic regime may intensify as discontent persists⁶.

    2. *International Reactions:*

    – *China:* Chinese leader Xi Jinping expressed condolences, highlighting Raisi's loss as a friend to both the Iranian and Chinese people.

    – *Russia:* Russian President Vladimir Putin mourned Raisi's death, emphasizing their strategic partnership and personal connection.

    – *India:* Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi offered condolences to Raisi's family and the Iranian people⁴.

    The situation in Iran remains complex, and the power struggle among various factions could indeed lead to demonstrations and internal tensions, especially given Iran's oil wealth and its potential impact on the country's stability¹⁶.

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