Russia’s Military Meltdown: What the Ukraine War Revealed | Peter Zeihan

Russia’s Military Meltdown: What the Ukraine War Revealed | Peter Zeihan

so we can build out a system where we incrementally expand the economic orbit of NAFTA to countries that are willing uh and eager I might add um while at the same time we basically put up a bit of a invisible barrier around the hemisphere to prevent others from coming in and engaging in anything cute uh it used to be that the Russians Soviets were very active in places like Ecuador or Mexico or Venezuela or GR Cuba but we’ve seen a complete collapse of the Russian position globally because of the Ukraine war they need everything that they have in that war and they’ve closed down the Wagner operations in Africa they’ve pulled almost all of their equipment out of Armenia and Syria they’ve removed their bases from the Chinese border they’ve even closed down their bases on the border with Finland which is about to join NATO everything they have is going to Ukraine and win or lose they will not be able to rebuild their positions in most places uh depends if there if the Russian nuclear Arsenal proves to be as in bad of shape as everything else in the Russian military oh yeah oh yeah Eastern SI is in play uh but they’re going to wait for the Russians to launch and fail to launch before they would make that decision now I personally don’t think the Russians are going to hit the big red button I think the case for that is pass it used to be that they were seriously considering nuking Berlin Warsaw Stockholm Paris and London in order to disrupt the weapons flows into Ukraine but at the Battle of IAM last month the ukrainians captured in 36 hours more equipment from the Russians and NATO had transferred in seven months so the ukrainians now their biggest problem is like deferred maintenance on Russian equipment um and if they decided they wanted to go for Save the United States we made it very clear to Putin that if you do hit the US uh the first person will die who dies is everyone who’s in the blast radius of the weapon that is targeting Putin personally and so he doesn’t get to write the history here uh history will record him as the person who destroyed the Russian Federation and since then he personally has not threatened nukes he’s left it to his flunkies yeah you know let me poke a hole in that conspiracy theory real quick the world economic forum is basically an excuse for rich people to do body shots there’s not a lot of planning there uh it’s really not very impressive from either an intellectual point of view or any sort of planning it’s just a party um as for what the sustainable population of the planet is we we could sustain our current population and a couple billion more um you know it’s an old adage that it’s not a food problem it’s a distribution problem and there’s some truth to that but there’s a lot of breakthroughs coming in technology especially genomics that are probably going to expand yields in places that can afford it the problem is is that the planet can’t or sorry the population can’t afford it um part of that whole population aging thing because of Breton woods and globalization and industrialization is that we’re all well we’re not all of us but a lot of the world’s population is now moving to mass retirement in fact on average the Baby Boomers of the world retire in the fourth quarter of this year so you know we’re like literally weeks away and when they do that they shift their money from stocks and bonds into more conservative of Investments because if there’s a currency or market crash then they destitute they can never rebuild their nest EG well that’s the money that pays for technological advance and application and without that uh our technological uh pace of advancement slows dramatically so we’ll have a handful of places that can still play and thank God the United States is one of them and the US is the world’s largest food producer so we can bring automation into Agriculture and genomics uh and that will massively expand our food capacity but for most of the rest of the world you’re looking at A disruption into the input flows that allow them to maintain their agricultural production and that’s going to be catastrophic that’s going to kill a minimum of a billion people maybe maybe two uh but there is no plan here uh this is simply the end result of globalization 80 years on I I hate to say it but we were probably always going to have that particular future uh well let me break that up so number one we get our Western hemispheric semi hermetically sealed system that goes its own way so NAFTA is already the world’s second largest manufacturing base it’s already the world’s largest consumption base that gets entrenched and enriched and I think the future of North America and anyone they decide to kind of include in the Inner Circle is going to be pretty bright uh Japan is a country that has managed to negotiate itself into the inner circle at the height of Trump’s power Trump and the Japanese prime minister cut a deal that was humiliating for the Japanese but that was seen in Japan as the price of joining the club that was important and then within a month of Biden coming in the Japanese showed up in the Oval Office said just so we’re clear this deal stands we don’t want to renegotiate it uh and so if the Japanese can cut a deal with both sides of the American Spectrum when we’re having a little bit of a political argument uh you know that the Japanese are in it for the long haul uh Australia is in it for the long haul New Zealand is in it for the long haul Britain they’ve got to figure out brexit but once they do I have no doubt that they’re going to be kind of joining this Western hemispheric Club beyond that yes I think what you’ve said is a good sum up of where we’re facing uh if you are an advanced power that has a Navy that is capable of expeditionary operations the question is whether or not you can access the sufficient inputs to make your system work now for countries like France agriculture is fine electricity is fine their weak point is oil but they’ve got Libya and Algeria right there which is enough for them and the cluster of countries immediately around them so I see significant engagement by the French in that zone and they kind of established I wouldn’t call it an Empire um one of the things that made the empires work is that the imperial countries were industrialized and the non-imperial countries the colonies were not and so the force disconnect was huge uh and they were able to Lord over them that’s not the world now it doesn’t take an industrial base to have an AK-47 so it’s going to be more of an association than a colonization uh and that provides a lot more hope for some of the poorer sides uh the United Kingdom will probably have to do this with Nigeria the Germans oh my God uh I don’t know what the Germans are going to do because there’s just not enough anywhere close by uh normally this has led the Germans into the Russian space and based on how Russia looks like after the Ukraine war you know maybe there’s going to be something there but I think a disassociation of the Russian system is more likely because sorry of the German system is more likely because the Germans have among the world’s worst demographies so by the end of this decade the industrial model was going to collapse anyway and the energy disruptions from the Ukraine war means it’s probably going to disrupt within the next 18 months so we may we will probably live through the end of the German Nation here and that’ll take a lot of other pieces with it uh China does not have the reach its Navy can really only function within about 500 miles of the coast and they don’t have the ability to reach the Middle East in the first place in scale so if you can get things nearby you’re looking pretty good so the Turks the French the Brits the Japanese kind of a special case I think they’re going to be all right they’re not going to be as strong as they have been they’re not going to be the manufacturing powers that they have been they’re going to have to supply a lot of things within their own house uh so those differentiated Supply chains that have given us rapid technological advancement uh those go away and that means lower incomes for a lot of the weaker members of those manufacturing Supply chains so Central Europe I’m fairly concerned about uh but for everybody else you have to be able to basically invite someone to you who can make it and the list of potential candidates there is short [Music] wow

Russia’s Military Meltdown: What the Ukraine War Revealed | Peter Zeihan

In this insightful discussion, we explore the geopolitical and economic landscape post-Ukraine war. The video delves into the implications of the NAFTA expansion, the decline of Russian influence globally, and the shifting dynamics of global power. With Russia’s focus on Ukraine, countries like the United States, Japan, and Australia are positioning themselves strategically for the future. We also touch on the aging global population, technological advancements in agriculture, and the challenges faced by nations like Germany and China. This analysis offers a comprehensive understanding of how current events are shaping the future of international relations and economic stability.

Peter Zeihan is an American geopolitical analyst, author, and speaker. He analyzes data from geography, demographics, and global politics to understand economic trends and make predictions.

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