Is Russia’s battle for influence spreading from Ukraine to Georgia and Moldova? | To The Point

Is Russia’s battle for influence spreading from Ukraine to Georgia and Moldova? | To The Point

Vladimir Putin has been openly aggressive in Ukraine for more than two years now but his war of Conquest is not confined to Ukraine he’s also clearly exerting influence in other former Soviet States as well for instance in Georgia and malova Georgia has passed a controversial legislation that labels non-governmental organizations as foreign agents leading to weeks of heavy protests the legislation is being regarded as a copy of a similar Russian law in mova which is due to hold presidential elections and a referendum on joining the EU later this year Russia is being accused of targeting the public Space by spreading disinformation meanwhile US Secretary of State Anthony blinkin is considering allowing Ukraine to use American weapons on Russian territory so today on to the point we are discussing is Russia’s battle for influence spreading from Ukraine to Georgia and [Music] [Music] mova hello and welcome to to the point I’m ishaia sanan here in Berlin and today my guests are Gustav gresle he is a senior policy fellow and Military expert with the European Council on Foreign Relations ecfr Anastasia pban she is an analyst for Eastern Europe at the German Council on Foreign Relations dgap and joining us via Skype from varsa we have Terry Schulz she is EU and NATO reporter at DW a very warm welcome to you all Gustav um the German foreign minister was in Ukraine recently and she said that the situation has worsened drastically now we know she had planned to go to khi she could not because of security reasons how is the situation now in Ukraine it’s been more than 2 years well Ukraine uh is at a very difficult time in this war um it has been difficult it will be difficult uh part of that was the delay in Aid both from Europe and us um it’s widely known that the US were late but also European ammunition initiatives were were late and the problem is that Ukrainian Armed Forces had lost a lot of personel because of this delay Aid and losing soldiers means losing skills losing people that have experience losing people that have uh a knowledge and what they’re doing it’s very hard to retrain people to something um so that is something that has damag their combat power quite considerably the second thing is that Russian army has has compared to with the Russian army that has invaded in 2022 grown to roughly twice the size in terms of man even more but in terms of material they grow twice the size whether on Ukrainian side you have not even the losses replaced by Western Equipment uh the losses that occurred since 2022 uh also you have a large problem of de facto obsolesence of equipment you can’t find ammunition for uh particularly of course suffer to air missiles air defense missiles but that affects also a lot of Ukrainian artillery tank force mechanized Vehicles where you don’t get spare parts or you don’t get ammunition for it uh and that has led to Ukraine’s practical combat power decreasing and Russian combat power increasing and Russia now with this some offensive trying to uh make gains on that so Ukraine is clearly not in a good spot Anastasia technically Selin’s 5year term as president ended on the 20th of May but of course he will continue being the president because of Martial law now his critiques say that this is non-constitutional how are people looking at this in Ukraine um I mean it’s a fair question and it has been discussed a lot especially last year um I argue the critique mostly comes from Russia Russian allies uh there was also an idea launched by the US last year but it was quickly dismissed as well and the EU Partners support Ukraine is not holding elections there are multiple reasons why elections would not be appropriate at the current time first of all uh Ukraine is not able to ensure safe and fair and secure elections more than 20% of Ukraine territory is occupied at the moment therefore people cannot vote in these territories it would be very difficult to ensure that people on the uh control line are able to vote due to increase as well increased security concerns then Ukraine has around 8 million refugees uh all around the world uring their presence at the voting stations would be as well very complicated and this is not just speaking of the fin Financial concerns where would the money come from uh for elections and zinsky has made it very clear that the money coming from military equipment and for continuing the war cannot be used to for elections and additionally a group of opposition parties also agreed that elections would not be now appropriate because this would also mean electoral competition it would mean resources while all the efforts should have should go for the war and I have to say I mean there also constitutional Ukraine would need to change it Constitution to hold elections but at the same time also it would be important uh it’s not not illegal not to have elections at the moment so we have precedents where the country can continue uh the situation before before some sort of a peace comes in place and uh last November around 80% of people in Ukraine supported that idea of waiting with the elections so of course it is difficult extremely difficult to hold elections at this point because of practical reasons the reason I ask you this question is because since the beginning of the war we’re talking about democracy versus an authoritarian regime and now if Selinsky continues to be the president without being elected again would that not fuel Putin’s propaganda machine you said it in the beginning also that the critique mostly comes from Russia I mean what will not foil Putin’s propaganda regime you know I think we should not look at what Russian propaganda is coming with you know we have the ra legitimate reason why Ukraine cannot hold elections and also I believe us as European part Partners putting this pressure on Ukraine would not be right just at the moment due to the reasons I mentioned and I mean I think sure what can be done is to dismiss this arguments but when a a state where we know how the president was elected in Russia uh raises and Democratic concerns about Ukraine I think uh we I mean taking this seriously is also I don’t know what does it say about us and our democracy I I also mind none of the opposition parties wants to run against a president who is Commander in Chief in a war situation because if you start to criticize the president and then also for Ukraine there a lot of looking at Ukraine going into the war of course there are some things that after the war can be politicized but now you would you can’t you can’t have a real good debate about all this stuff so so all contenders all possible contenders those politicians who think they might challenge sensi at a later point no and want that this will come after the war because now they they would just lose out and and and do more harm uh to them and their country than than do and that differs Ukraine from other situations where you have an opposition that wants to run an election against uh a sitting president I mean in belus of course the opposition wants to run a fair election against the sitting president um but this this is totally different in Ukraine it’s a different and we should we should also talk to the opposition and and and take them seriously on that right let’s go to uh Terry quickly she’s been waiting for us patiently thanks for your patience Terry now ever since the beginning of the war there have been concerns that Ukraine would not be the last country where uh Putin would try to um have his influence and there have been talks about countries like mova now tell us just how vulnerable is a country like mova which does not not even share border with Russia uh to Putin’s encroachment well there have been concerns much longer than since the beginning of Russia’s war on Ukraine and that’s because Putin ensures that mdova worries about this kind of thing you know it it has a piece of territory transnistria which is about 4,000 square kilometers and about 400,000 people which has remained loyal to Moscow since the Soviet Union crumbled so for more than 30 years and this tiny area um sometimes even asks Putin for protection now remember when Putin says that he needs to protect Russian speakers this is the kind of language that we heard before he invaded donbas in 2014 and took Crimea he said these kind of things again uh in 2022 before he went into Ukraine it’s sort of language that people in the countries near to Russia understand that this could signal that Putin wants to go into this territory he would absolutely love to create a land Corridor between Russia and transnistria because as you mentioned he doesn’t have a border with mdova but this is something that the country has has always lived with since uh since its re Independence and that’s why the pro-eu president Maya Sandu uh has very much strengthened ties with Brussels now mova is neutral by Constitution so there’s not a lot of talk about joining NATO of course but she just this week signed a defense agreement with the European Union and and she had also done this earlier bilaterally with France and this is going to help security cooperation with the European Union in areas like cyber security uh uh counterterrorism um even border management so this is something that mova has always known it’s vulnerable and it’s doing what it can in this uh you know very uh very vulnerable neighborhood to to strengthen itself to become more resilient thanks Terry Now malova does not share a border with Russia but Georgia does the country has approved moved a controversial foreign agent law that has sparked weeks of mass protests under the new law Civil Society organizations and media that receive more than 20% of their revenues from abroad will be obliged to register as organizations serving the interest of a foreign power people in tzy are continuing to protest without rest even after the Georgian parliament passed the controversial law classifying certain organizations as foreign agents opponents are calling the new regulation Russian law from now on according to Russian president NGS and Independent Media must disclose their financial support from abroad we’re standing here today in order to protect our future to protect our right of speech of free speech and the basic fundamental rights that govern all Democratic societies across the world I’m a researcher I’m working as a Soviet past researcher one of the non-governmental organization T based non-governmental organization and nowadays today after after they uh they approve the law I am foreign agent here I’m standing here as a foreign agent debate about the laws revealing the division in Georgian Society young people especially are afraid of Putin’s growing influence and that their country might turn away from the West will Georgia be the next state to fall back into Russia’s sphere of influence Anastasia why did Georgia feel the need to bring in such an anti-democratic law H this a this a very important question because everyone asks this you know in fact Georg and dream didn’t have to do it they could have preserved the power without bringing in this law um I would say there is really a fear coming from the leadership of the party that they are losing the power uh this law while it’s labeled Russian law and very much inspired by Russian legislation doesn’t come on Russian demand it really comes from the Georgian leadership from Georgian Dream in in the attempt to preserve the power over the country um their fears were that that the coming elections Georgia Georgian Dream would not get the majority um however I I mean I believe that the party underestimated Georgian population uh and this is not a repressive regime this is a country full of people who want to preserve their democracy and people will be on the street so I I mean I I think it was really an underestimation from the from the ruling party uh they have been in power already for quite a long time and their support has been declining over the past years Georgian Dream is perceived as a very corrupt party that are trying to maintain the grip on the power and really sliding Georgia into the kleptocratic and and Democratic regime but the people are resilient in the country and I think this was maybe I it’s very hard to say what was the expectation from the Georgian Dream and what was the motivation behind this because they could have they have been riging elections before so I think there could have been other tools appli to maintain the power and to me uh this step is also shows that they uh that triggered the population to be on the street and georgean dream I I honestly I mean I see it more optimistic but I really think that uh Georgian population will be stronger than this let’s look at the effects of passing this legislation well it’s not just a protest uh Terry the EU has warned that the adoption of this law will hamper chances of joining the block U Georgia has candidacy uh State status at the moment and then you also have us saying that um Georgia will become an adversary rather than a partner how is the Georgian government reacting to all of this and you also have NATO I should point out also um speaking out against this and Georgia has traditionally very much wanted to become a member of NATO so you’ve really got all the major organizations um plus the US putting pressure on on uh georgean dream basically but it has seemed to backfire so far you know they haven’t backed down on this and in fact they’re saying look look at all the undue influence that foreign um you know foreign actors want to put on Georgia this is why we need this rule so it it really hasn’t worked so far of course the law has not been implemented yet so there there’s still time perhaps for these kind of uh levers to work but at the moment they don’t show any sign of backing down at the same time you you asked about about EU membership and they have not also backed away from wanting to become a member of the European Union so that may be where the pressure can still be applied at the same time the EU is is so angry about this that it’s talking about rolling back some of the Privileges that Georgia has had like Visa free travel for example and there are some countries that are saying there should be sanctions put on Georgia so this is really a long way from The Joy where the country was you know introduced as a candidate and and EU foreign ministers are going to talk about this next week so it’s clearly backfiring talking of EU gusta now EU likes to be seen as this big family that has diverse opinions um and it wants to include as many countries as possible but by doing so isn’t EU weakening itself now now we have the examples of Slovakia we have the example of Hungary U where we realize that it did uh become counterproductive and now it’s not just Georgia you is also thinking about Serbia about Montenegro about Albania what do you make of it well the thing is not enlargement uh the or enlargement per se the problem is you need to be tough on Democratic standards freedom of press Independence of the Judiciary uh because if you let them slide and that was happened in Hungary uh then this opens up for this kind of Quasi authoritarian rule that then destroys policymaking in the EU uh and and that is why for example on Georgia of course EU is now stricter um it’s not uh a a just sort of issue of taste but the problem is that georgean dream uh has been criticized for State capture for rolling back judicial reform for um for nepotism uh for hindering the fight against corruption over the the past years um and and basically now all these grievances break into the open when they when they try to cotail or criminalize those organizations that still report on on all these misdeeds um and and that is that is of course the issue where you can say no if you if you’re going down that road um the the door to the EU is closed on the other hand we see other countries that knock on the used doors that have made remarkable progress on this uh and that have reformed and you see countries inside the EU that have done all those things like Hungary that actually have you know enacted laws like this and kicked out um influence positive influence from other country so Georgia also sees that example and it’s hypocritical yeah uh so so the issue inside and outside is to be more principlist about democratic values and uh and basic freedoms uh and that that is irrespective of accession and not um it is it is a shame that our article 7 procedures are so cumbersome uh and that now of course that Hungary finds allies to protect itself within the EU um but on the other hand if you for example look at Ukraine and the progress of Ukrainian reforms over the years um uh they rightfully knock on the door and say look guys we I mean there are better in Democratic standards much better than Hungary itself why why shouldn’t they so I I would I would separate the issue of enlargement um uh with that I just my very add I think also the environment has become very transactional uh and Hungary is trying to obtain deals you know not to block accession and I also think it will be the same with Georgia Hungary is lobing very strongly for Georgia uh in terms of the EU accession and this can be used you know to open Now accession talks for Ukraine and mova as a bargain token and I think here it’s really important what was also mentioned previously that EU still maintains its norms and values in this very transactional environment that we’re living in and all of but it’s a very poisoned offer I mean the hungarians want Serbia in and I want Georgia in because of their de deficits and they they’re not the only ones the austrians are also pushing for Serbia because Serbia and under Wu would be a roadblock for the EU to be stricter on financial controls on fight against ESP spionage on Russian influence on corruption laws the the whole the the the you prosecutory service on financial crimes that is a horror scenario for Victor Orban but it also undermines the kind usual policy making in Vienna or Bratislava and they want to have a rescue against that and they see that Georgian Dream or wage are or an unreformed Bosnia are are a kind of uh rescue service and allies to to delute anti-corruption policies within the you uh so so so again yeah it is about Democratic standards and they should govern whom we take in and whom not right it’s it’s it’s a long debate about um what’s happening in the EU but let’s come back back to Ukraine because currently it appears that uh Putin may be gaining the upper hand in Ukraine largely due to the West inadequate support analysts say Ukraine hasn’t faced such a severe military challenge since the early days of the war this situation has prompted a new plan that outlines specific steps for Ukraine’s membership in NATO as early as July 2028 the paper suggests that Ukraine could become a member of the western military Alliance by 2028 regardless of whether the war has ended or not in the meantime Allied countries are called on to increase their aid to 0.25% of their GDP air defense for Western Ukrainian border regions could also be managed from NATO territory and until Ukraine joins NATO all types of Conventional Weapons could be supplied the STI ation that they not be used against Targets in Russia should be dropped what are the chances of this new draft paper being implemented 2028 isn’t that too late well from a position of Bucharest 2008 it’s much too late but the problem is now the war is already there um we’re looking at Sweden and Finland and how difficult ult that was I think it is a bit elusive to propose exact dates for membership because this is a negotiation process amongst 32 Allied countries uh and that will be difficult with the respect of some countries on the other hand I see a huge inconsistency in policy that uh especially looking back at vus last year when Ukraine talked or wanted a at least a political commitment uh to an invitation uh if conditions arise then that those countries who are either formally or informally in favor of a negotiated settlement with Russia do not support or are very hesitant on Ukraine’s NATO membership because if you have a kind of stall mate agreement uh we had these in the past and none of them worked neither Minsk one nor Minsk 2 nor any other agreement if you want want to have the war really to end you need a security net for Ukraine U to signal to Moscow not an inch further and that would be NATO membership the most practical and the most actually effective would be NATO membership so here the West is utterly inconsistent U and and of course this paper pokes into into the political inconsistency we have two minutes left Terry now um we know that Russia’s military has begun drills involving tactical nuclear weapons will that have an effect on this decision on this proposal rather Russia has um has nuclear tests you know nuclear exercises we should say all the time the important thing is that NATO uh consistently says that they have not seen Russia uh making a true change in its its military posture when it comes to nuclear weapons and that would that’s what would be the key for for real concern about whether Russia intended to use nuclear weapons Putin has threatened it uh many times and has not made those moves that would indicate to the alliance that it needed to really worry about a Russian nuclear attack thank you Anastasia last question um now we’re clearly seeing here there are two different strategies um there’s this um military method in Ukraine there’s the non-military method hybrid measures as they’re called in other countries Georgia mova which strategy according to you is working better for Putin I think when it’s not a comparison that’s the issue about Russia all the strategies come together and this what we should deter we should not look only the military attacks but the hybrid attacks including in the EU countries and in the candidate countries so it should be seen as a package uh that Putin is having as a strategy together that’s all the time we have what do you think about it which strategy is working better for Putin if you’re watching us on YouTube do let us know your thoughts we’ll be reading your comments thanks for watching goodbye [Music] [Music] [Music]

Vladimir Putin has been openly aggressive in Ukraine for more than two years now. But his war of conquest is not confined to Ukraine. He is also clearly exerting influence in other former Soviet states as well – for instance, in Georgia and Moldova.

Georgia has passed a controversial legislation that labels non-governmental organizations as “foreign agents” leading to weeks of heavy protests. The legislation is being regarded as a copy of a similar Russian law. In Moldova – which is due to hold presidential elections and a referendum on joining the EU – later this year, Russia is being accused of targeting the public space by spreading disinformation. Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is considering allowing Ukraine to use American weapons on Russian territory. So, today on To The Point, we are discussing: Is Russia’s battle for influence spreading from Ukraine to Georgia and Moldova?

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