Putin resorts to empty threats as pressure as Biden allows Ukraine to hit Russia with US weapons

Putin resorts to empty threats as pressure as Biden allows Ukraine to hit Russia with US weapons

where NATO and NATO Nations show resolve Putin he might he might use words but he backs off so the US administration’s kind of stated concerned that using these weapons to strike into Russia might somehow lead to escalation and NATO being drawn into the conflict I’m afraid I don’t buy that uh the evidence says otherwise what’s your current analysis of the situation in Ukraine at the moment well I mean it hasn’t been the easiest few months for Ukraine um we have seen you know where in the early part of last year the ukrainians very much had the initiative and slowly that was that was seeded and you know much of last year was a was a kind of pretty bloody stalemate but there is little doubt that in recent months the Russians have just started to gain the upper hand not at a kind of you know really decisive manner you if you look at the G the Russians are making they’re still very small um you know hundreds of meters here here here and there um so you we shouldn’t we shouldn’t overplay it but but the gains such as they are are coming on on the Russian side of the moment I guess the most significant thing recently has been uh the the Russians opening up what you might call it another another axis in in from the north down on down towards K hoi get very small gains but but it’s not necessarily about the gains it’s about the pressure it places the ukrainians on not just politically but also in terms of pulling their reserves from from other areas uh to to defend against that that Advance we saw that the US sent their aid package to Ukraine Ukraine is um receiving weapons from that as well do you say that that’s having any impact in terms of Ukraine’s defense against the Russian offensive well we hear that you President zinsky says that you know some of the lead elements of that Aid package is now beginning to flow into into Ukraine but inevitably you know there there is there is a long lead time from the Declaration of a very significant aid aid package to it having a decisive effect on on the battlefield now the the Americans were very quick on the mark and they made great play of this that as soon as the President Biden made the announcement that the first element start started moving moving the first pieces of ammunition Etc started flowing but but that is almost tokenistic it’s to demonstrate you know early movement but but to you know get the substance of that a package uh into into Ukraine into the hands of the Ukrainian War Fighters integrated into war fighting capability inevitably take takes time now others will be close to this that than me but my sense would be you’re talking about next year before you know all of that Aid Sweden have just made another uh another significant pledge it takes it takes a significant amount of time for that for that kind of um that to turn into real military hardware that can be fought effectively and if I can just use a kind of if we think back to the spring of last year and everyone was very excited about the kind of the the much vaunted spring offensive the ukrainians were going to make and people were surprised that all this Aid that the West had given wasn’t kind of ready and and of course the reason it wasn’t ready was that the Western Nations prevaricated about providing it provided it too late and there simply wasn’t the time for the ukrainians to integrate the equipment in the way that they needed to in into coherent fight fighting forces and and in that case they had they had months but it still wasn’t long enough so you know this huge huge Aid bug uh budget from from America is incredibly significant but let’s not kid ourselves the significant delay in Washington has a real impact uh on the battlefield for president zalinsky and his military the US says that it will keep its ban on Ukraine using American weapons to strike military Targets in Russia for example what’s your analysis of this yeah I mean it’s it’s hard to know what’s what the politics is behind that and I wouldn’t wish to say second guess you know President Biden faces all sorts of pressures in Washington that that you know that unless you’re inside the administration it’s hard to know what those are all I can tell you is from a from a military perspective and from a strategic perspective uh it seems peculiar we’re well over two years into this war we know from experience that Putin’s threats are tending not to manifest themselves where NATO and NATO Nation show resolve Putin he might he might use words but he backs off so the US administration’s kind of stated concerned that using these weapons to strike into Russia might somehow lead to escalation and NATO being drawn into the conflict I’m afraid I just don’t buy that the evidence says otherwise now none of us have got a crystal ball that might be the case but the evidence would suggest it’s not and and so I think it’s you know I think it’s it’s a very peculiar decision to stick with this I think about 10 Nations including the United Kingdom have said that they would be entirely happy for our donor equipment to be used to strike into uh into Russia the Yen Stenberg the Secretary General of NATO has said he thinks Nations should do that so why America is holding back uh is really hard to to Divine what I can tell you is the only winner from them doing that is President Putin and Russia because firstly it he allows Putin to uh prize open the alliance demonstrate lack of unity among amongst Nations but but for zalinski and his forces who are fighting the most incredibly difficult War we’re just making them we’re just tying their hand yet further behind their back you know why why would zalinski not strike into Russia when he has been struck from inside Russia I mean it’s we’re not this isn’t Queensbury rules you know this is war and you fight by the rules of war and and we we continue to kind of somehow judge the ukrainians for their lack of success on the battlefield rather than looking inwards and asking ourselves they’re fighting on a b half and are we doing enough to back them and and for me this is this is a really clear example of where we’re simply not backing Ukraine as say I don’t second guess Washington politics there may be very good reason for it but I tell you clear as day from a military and a grand strategic point of view there are very very negative consequences to that decision coming out of Washington now I I should say there are some suggestions coming out of secretary blink that they might shift their position over time I think he’s talking about you know adapting you know that they’ve adapted their policy over time and perhaps that’s just giving a little bit of uh daylight on this issue well well I really I really hope they take that forward do you think that there could be change you mentioned Anthony blinken trying to lobby for change but if you could put some sort of scale on it How likely do you think that would be yeah I mean I think it’s interesting again I these things are really hard to to predict aren’t they because um you know we’ll we’ll seek to Divine uh you know comments by uh spokespeople by secretaries and the like the reality is we don’t know um you know it could be really quite soon um you know it could be that blink managed to betray President Biden quite quickly and and A Change Is Made equally we know some decisions coming out of Washington have taken a very very long time to come to Bear you know the decision to provide f 16 uh fast jets for example the decision to Pride main battle tanks uh you know America did not lead that conversation Britain did why did Britain agree to provide I think it was 14 challenge to two tanks it wasn’t about the challenge to two tanks what the what the ukrainians wanted was the German tank Leopard 2 because they’re very readily available across Europe you know you get commonality of of tank the reason Britain did it was to demonstrate lead ership so that you know if we offer to provide tanks then we’re the first to go and other other nations come in behind you know America has found it quite hard to take some of those those steps so you know it’s really hard to answer your question but but there is some evidence to suggests what some what you might call no-brainer decisions have taken Washington quite a long time to to get to you know we heard from Vladimir Putin he did say on Tuesday that attacks by Ukraine on Russian um territories of Western missiles that this could trigger a new world war but as you mentioned you know Putin is no um stranger to making claims without any substance to them but we have seen that Russia they did begin um nuclear drills near to Ukraine do you see this as any sort of Advance with these threats or do you think they still remain to be baseless I I I think they’re baseless you know he he’s thrown around threats about nuclear weapons uh pretty much throughout the conflict to me that they’re just words now you need the intelligence Community need to still you know be doing what they do brilliantly watching like Hawks to to see whether there’s evidence that they’re they’re More Than Words President Putin historically all the way back in time he’s an opportunist you know why why did he invade Ukraine 200 bit years ago he did be did so because when he went into Crimea and 20145 the West did nothing so he concluded there was opportunity to be fair since uh The Invasion turn a bit years ago NATO and Nations have done a reasonable job of of demonstrating that there is no opportunity for Putin to further exploit into uh NATO and and and other nations um and so he can keep using these words but but I don’t I don’t think they’re backed up by action yes everyone’s rightly points these nuclear drills Russia conducts nuclear drills you if you have capabilities you have to conduct drills uh and you can use drills as messaging you know there’s a big NATO excise going on in Lithuania at the moment that’s about messaging of course it’s about military capability as well but fundamentally it’s about it’s about demonstrating uh to Russia that NATO is Unified and to deter any opportunistic move by President Putin we also saw that the Biden Administration they’ve stepped up warnings about China’s support for Russia with threats of sanctions for example what do you think of that well I mean I think that again that that’s right you know you need to be putting as much sanction pressure on Russia and Russia’s uh sponsors uh and supporters as possible I mean the sad reality is that that sanctions are not terribly effective um you know any Economist will be able to tell you far better than I can The Limited effect that sanctions have had on on Russia during the the course of the of the war um and so I’m not saying you don’t apply the sanctions they’re important they’re important politically uh but but the the the real impact they have I think is is a moot point we got the US general election coming up how do you think that could change if we have someone else coming in you know for example Donald Trump how could that shift relations well I mean I guess it it creates unpredictability doesn’t it um you know if President Biden gets in for another term we know pretty much what we’re going to get um you know uh he has been a supporter of Ukraine um and as say despite you know in the detail one might wish him to do slightly different things but fundamentally the US has been a strong support to Ukraine through this um president Trump is known for for one thing and that is unpredictability um he has uh grandiose views about his ability to make things happen on the world stage absolutely not backed up by evidence from from his first term he simplifies extremely complicated situ situations uh you know his his slogan about make America great again you know isolationism you know what we don’t know is what to the degree to which in a second term those would those would continue to be uh where the substance would be if you like but I think the one thing we can be certain of is when he comes into office will be uncertain he is he is unpredictable uh and what what president zalinski needs is certainty what Putin needs is he needs to know his adversary from our point of view he needs to know his adver adversaries are united what NATO needs is confidence that the Americans stay in lock step in the defense in the defense of of Europe and in the defense of of Ukraine rer Jones thank you very much absolute pleasure J

Rupert Jones discusses how the US might reconsider its ban on Ukraine striking targets in Russia as pressure mounts from NATO allies to do so.

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