Putin ‘will pay a big price’ for Russia’s losses North of Kharkiv | Sean Bell

Putin ‘will pay a big price’ for Russia’s losses North of Kharkiv | Sean Bell

you only have to look at the number of tanks that Russia has lost which they don’t dispute they’re bringing their Old Second World War Tanks out of storage to throw at the battlefield um they are struggling for equipment so even if they do make a breakthrough most military analysts don’t think that they’re going to make a strategic breakthrough in other words start taking significantly more chunks of Ukrainian land um but that then calls into what do we think Putin’s new objective is his his objective initially was to take Ukraine 3 days probably maximum we’re now here at 800 days over 800 days into campaign I think Russia originally at its peak had 177% of the territory of Ukraine I understand now it’s down at 11% um so not withstanding the Tactical here or there you know tuings and throwings Russia is struggling on the battlefield it’s trying to capitalize on this shortage weapons and we’ll probably pay a big price for that hello and welcome to Frontline for times radio I’m James Hansen and today I’m delighted to be joined by Shawn Bell a regular guest here on front line former fighter pilot military analyst and co-host of the red Matrix podcast Sean always a pleasure welcome back thanks James well good to see you again we have a lot to discuss first of all I just wanted to get your thoughts on a story from the Ukrainian general staff they claim that in the past 24 hours Russia has sustained more than 1200 casualties what is your analysis of that yeah the trouble is um J J is I was a little bit skeptical about commenting on news reports that are you know 24 hours old mainly because both Ukraine and Russia use the information space to conduct an information war and I mean this sort of thing has been done ever since War started I mean even in World War II you know some of the messaging in the newspapers that was coming out was heavily doctored heavily influenced by the military and political leadership um and on these occasions you know it’s really difficult however what I would say is that the ministry of defense today has also been announcing that they think that by the end of this month Russia will have sustained half a million casualties that’s a combination of dead bodies and people badly injured that is a phenomenally large number um and will have a huge impact on the Russian State a lot of these injured remember health for Heroes and all those people that went back home we we suffered a tiny fraction of those numbers in Afghanistan yet it had a profound effect on our country but returning I think to the uh to the Russia front line what is interesting is that um generally speaking forces on the offensive suffer significantly more casualties than the defense obviously that’s because they have to leave their trench lines to go out into the open to make advances um and during the bakut offensive if you remember um that was particularly bloody and they reckon at the peak of that Russia was losing about 900 soldiers a day so the’re very fact that now they seem to be pushing very hard in an area that’s quite well defended 1200 doesn’t seem unreasonable but um I have to say I I I heavily caveat that by saying you know for all sorts of reasons Ukraine would want to inflate the number to demonstrate that Russia is not on the front foot and Russia is generally going to be very circumspect about those figures so always dangerous to comment on figures but interesting to see the trend do you think there’s also an element that the Russian troops are pretty poorly trained particularly in comparison to the ukrainians The Institute for the study of War pointing out that in their view the ukrainians remain far better trained than the Russians is that your your reading also Sean well I I I have huge respect for The Institute SL as a war uh I think they are a very good Think Tank um the trouble is that a lot of the folks there are more historian based than military based and I think um there there is no doubt that Russia has had to conscript mobilize a huge number of people and it’s pretty evident that they haven’t had that much training I mean you normally do training using seasoned campaigners to do that training well Russia has actually got season campaign is on the front line so apart from showing them which which end of a gun to point it’s very difficult to see how you’re going to get very high quality training and therefore you’re suddenly thrown at the front line the the mavia gain though is that I’m always a bit cautious about these sorts of an allergies because um there’s nothing that replaces Battlefield experience whatever training you’ve had the first time you hear a bullet the crack of a bullet going past is not something that you will have experienced in in peace time the first time you have to deal with a casualty on the battlefield when it’s your mate and there’s some horrible horrible damage being done to him that that is just it’s fear it’s visceral and we saw you know back in the second world war once the Germans had got some battle hardened experience um they were able to Blitz Creek they were able to overrun people so whilst it’s almost certainly true that the West is providing better training to the Ukrainian military than the Russians are getting the Russians are getting a hell of a lot of front line on the front foot experience um but the essential premise of what you’re saying I think is is interesting because um you only have to go back to the end of the second world war some countes didn’t care about human life they just pushed bodies at the battlefield because eventually they would overwhelm the enemy for example if your machine gun had 100 bullets before it needed to be reloaded throw 101 people at it and the last one will get through that sounds brutal it’s not the way we would do Warfare but it’s pretty evident the Russians are doing that and therefore it’s quite possible that an effort to make a breakthrough they are suffering huge casualties and the final bit about that James if I can just uh pick up as well is that um at the moment Grand strategic perspective if you were Putin you’d know that zinski is suffering from a temporary hopefully shortage of weapons and it’s having to be quite Frugal with the use of weapons if you were a military man you’d be going right this is an opportunity to capitalize I don’t care what the human cost is just throw the bodies at the front line because ultimately we will break through and make a strategic breakthrough and therefore it’s quite possible that for the next couple of months um Russia will be taking that sort of tactical approach to this conflict and it’s quite possible they’ll pay huge price on the battlefield for it that’s really interesting when you say they might pay a huge price in the battlefield you mean in terms of the casualties these casualty rates may continue this kind of Meek grind of tactics that’s going to continue almost certainly because we’re not seeing the Russians do anything really different tactically on the battlefield um but ultimately you know quantity sometimes has a quality all of its own that the more people you throw at this the more you wear down the Ukrainian defenses and eventually a bit like pressure on a dam you can only put your fingers in so many other holes and eventually the thing breaks through and that’s what Russia will be hoping that they can apply enough pressure throw enough bodies into the fight um I think what is interesting is the in studies of war and a lot of other military analysts believe that Russia hasn’t actually got the resources to capitalize on operation break through what I mean by that is that it’s not just Manpower when the floodgates open you want to way pour through and capitalize um but to do that you need tanks you need lots of other Battlefield Equipment and you only have to look at the number of tanks that Russia has lost which they don’t dispute they’re bringing their Old Second World War Tanks out of storage to throw at the battlefield um they are struggling for equipment so even if they do make a breakthrough most military analysts don’t think that they’re going to make a strategic breakthrough in other words start taking significantly more chunks of Ukrainian land um but that then calls into what do we think Putin’s new objective is his his objective initially was to take Ukraine three days probably maximum we’re now here at 800 days over 800 days into campaign I think Russia originally at its peak had 177% of the territory of Ukraine I understand now it’s down at 11% um so not withstanding the tax here or there you know tuings and throwings Russia is struggling on the battlefield it’s trying to capitalize on this shortage of weapons and will probably pay a big price for that and of course in the last week we’ve had the major development of the US finally agreeing that American supplied weapons can be used by Ukraine to strike targets inside Russia how significant do you think that will be in The Wider context of this war Sean yeah there’s been a lot made of this hasn’t there James let’s be clear about what’s been off what hasn’t been offered because um if I took your statement literally I might imagine your your viewers listeners might imagine that’s a c blanch it’s not America has been very careful to say that um given the opening of a second front or potential second front around KH um by the Russians that um that the US recognizes that Ukraine will need to use weapons outside of Ukrainian territory but it has been very clear it’s in the defense of car ke so it hasn’t given car flanch secondly it said they must be targeting military targets not civilian and thirdly my understanding is that they’ve not included attachs that Army tactical missile system in that uh in that caveat which is about 300 kilometer range so um but in a way even though there are caveats I’m a great believer you can’t be a little bit pregnant you know you either do allow that stuff to Target or not and America now has said they can they joined sort of UK the um the French the poles and the Germans all of which have taken the shackles off the ability to use these weapons uh deeper within Uh Russian territory and I think that will be pretty significant let let’s give you an example um so um when this second front around KH opened up for several months Ukraine has known that Russia has been massing troops between 30 and 50,000 troops in the area but it couldn’t do anything about it um and it had to wait until they came across the border um if they had had the weapons to attack those they would have undoubtedly caused a lot of difficulty for Russia you can’t easily Mass 50,000 people and keep them hidden it’s because it’s not just about the people it’s the vehicles it’s the weapons it’s the food it’s the logistics they come with a huge tail so uh able to Target those will be really really uh useful for the Ukrainian Ians but I do think it’s another step I think what what’s lovely about this is that when we when Russia first invaded the West didn’t want to get involved Ukraine is not member of NATO we’re not going to get involved gradually Ukraine did an amazing job withstanding the first push and all of a sudden the West went actually Ukraine’s Got a chance here if we help them so he provided anti-tank weapons Russia made a big fuss about it we did it and it made a big difference then there was talk about providing tanks Russia threw its arms up in the air the West prevaricated was really concerned about what that what might lead to escalation the Brits gave Challenger two then leopard twos then Abrams were involved then we went through long-range missiles and suddenly oh everybody went through the same cycle of worry again and eventually storm Shadows were provided um and Scout the the the French equivalent not yet the German tourist but maybe in time so I do think this is just a yet another example of a stiffening political resolve that President Putin um shouldn’t have it all his own way this isn’t about NATO getting involved NATO getting involved would be troops on the ground fighting this is simply a question of going right Ukraine needs help what can we do to help well it does beg the question to what extent the Kremlin is bluffing I mean the Kremlin has responded to the decision last week to allow American supplied weapons to be used by Ukraine inside Russia by accusing NATO of provoking a new level of attension the fear has always been that an escalation May in the worst case scenario end up with puting using tactical nuclear weapons do you think that’s a realistic risk Sean well James and this is always an interesting question because uh I’m going to play my grayhair old card here against you youngsters um when I joined the military we were in the middle of the Cold War we were living with the omnipresent threat of nuclear war and the whole concept of the time was called m ually assur destruction mad because nobody would press the button the whole success of nuclear weapons is that the Armageddon that follows is simply the ultimate Terrance against somebody attacking you um so we’ve live through all these threats President Putin today knows that his unprovoked uh invasion of Ukraine would be halted in a heartbeat if NATO was to get involved if NATO war planes were to go in and provide air cover if NATO military capability was to be deployed so in his head he has to do everything possible to deter that happening and by rattling the nuclear saber which he’s done consistently throughout this war he has effectively scared Western politicians into being fearful of getting involved he’s even gone as far as forward deploying nuclear weapons to Belarus if you remember um last year finished off earlier this year um but actually there’s no military gain from forward deploying nuclear weapons they can go around the world this is purely a bit of Bluster to try to sew seeds of doubt in the western political mind and it has worked but the harsh reality is that it doesn’t suit Putin to get NATO involved it doesn’t suit Putin to have any form of nuclear at War at all he’s just using it as saber rattling and it’s proving very effective but I referred back uh James to I’ve just come away from a a really interesting conference closed door chattam house can’t talk about the detail but what was fascinating was that in principle the Western leaders are of unanimous of the view that whatever happens if Russia was to succeed in using military force to redraw the boundaries of Russia where would that stop if in the modern world any nation was able to use Force to redraw boundaries then it would be the end of the world order as we currently know it and therefore um that cannot be allowed to Prevail now we focus your your chat to me is more focused about the military angle of that but obviously there are three pillars to this one is military one is political and one is economic and what is fascinating is just seeing how those other lines are being developed at the moment to try to put increasing pressure on Russia not just on Putin because bluntly whilst Putin is the front of house the real power history shows is with the oligarchs with the generals and stuff like that and if they generally see their quality of life imploding there’s normally a correction of some form and Russia self- corrects itself and I think what the westers decided is that yes military is important but also politically Russia wants to be a great their leaders been indicted by the international criminal court and there are other things that can be done Against The Wider body of Russian supporting the war and the economic one is that you know at the moment Russia is spending 40% of its you know spending on defense that’s just not sustainable I mean all of the other things that you would be spending money on as a government loads of them aren’t being spent people are hemorrhaging away from the country it’s not investing in the long term and Russia had I think it was about 700 billion of Reserves um that’s down at about 200 billion now um and some of that has been locked away Frozen by the west and remember there’s been this discussion about oh we can’t take that money off Putin that would be illegal it does look likely now they’ve decided it would be illegal to take the money off him but the interest it’s earning is not illegal so actually if we were to seize that 200 billion and if we were to lock it into a bond and and let the money come out in 40 years time then the interest is worth money and you could give that lump sum in advance to Ukraine and so there’s all sorts of different ways I think that um the West is going to apply pressure across these three lines but you must make sure the military one doesn’t fail but it doesn’t mean that you have to win on the battlefield in order to achieve the long-term strategic objectives for Ukraine looking at the geopolitics of The Wider War I wonder how significant you feel Sean the relationship between Moscow and Beijing is because you’ve got president zalinski accusing China of working with Russia to undermine his upcoming Global Peace Summit in Switzerland and there is a suspicion even though China publicly says it is neutral in the conflict that Chinese components are being used by Russia how significant would you say the relationship is between the two countries well there’s a lot in there James um first of all of all yes have no doubt Chinese components are being used for Russia unfortunately so are American so are British so before we become too critical um Russia’s got very effective at finding its way around sanctions and in a world of Economics people are always prepared to to pay good money to get what they need and there’s no doubt that some of the shy drones that been shut down some of the the missiles that been shut down even North Korea that they have packed full of Western technology um so there’s a real real question to be answered there the interesting I think going to your core of your question though about Xi Jinping and Putin um before the war started if you ever saw them on the global stage they looked both literally and metaphorically similar sized people when you see them together now Russia appears to be the subordinate Russia needs China far more than China needs Russia uh the worry here of course is that Russia is trying to generate an axis of Evil let’s use some Malad dramatic terms where you have China Russia North Korea and Iran who have a vested interest in operating and creating an alternative to Nato um as being deadly that there is a risk of that no doubt but what we also have to be careful of here is that China is not Russia China has some economic challenges of its own at the moment and China most of its business has done through it export markets vast quantities of exports to the rest of the world you’ll remember not that long ago America said there was something like 10 times as many imports from China as there were exports and he and trying to get that better balanced if China was to fall foul of the West you’d imagine those Imports would stop almost immediately now there are some that things like 5G which are clearly would be uncomfortable if you lost that but a lot of China is known for just cheap and cheerful stuff clothing cheap goodies and stuff like that you can stop those being exported in a heartbeat so um China would massively suffer economically if it was to actually take sides what’s far more likely is that China’s got one eye on Taiwan at the moment and is sort of going if I go into Taiwan what will happen and Russia went into Ukraine and in reality once the West has helped Ukraine it will not go in directly and help it uh so so far so almost certainly uh Taiwan would not in provoke America and the UK to rush to military aid that’s what um China will judge but it would have to deal with the consequences and it might have thought before uh Russia invaded Ukraine that the consequences might have been palatable because the West would would blink a little bit and then a couple of years would go by everything be back to normal it’s probably watched what’s happened to Russ Russia in Ukraine and gone actually this could have longer term consequences and I think therefore whilst there is a danger that China and Russia are in bed together in reality I think China is strategically far more um looking far further ahead being far more measured understands that the West is vital to its long-term Prosperity at least at the moment even though there’s no doubt that it will pursue its own military objectives particularly in the sou China Sea over the coming weeks and decades if Xi Jinping decided to come off the fence and side with the West over Ukraine do you think he has the power to end this war well I I’ve not heard that one before um no I don’t think he would um Russia I mean let’s face it Russia’s objectives at the start of this war were to reestablish Russian greatness again um it’s pretty clear on Most Metro that Russia has taken a backward step we’ve discussed why that is particularly in international criminal court you know Russia can’t he can’t Putin can’t travel he also wanted to stop the expansion of NATO NATO has expanded as a direct result of of of what has happened um I don’t think U Russia is dependent on China uh let’s look at the defense industrial base a really good lens of this is that this has become a war of national um uh industrial capacity if you remember World War II you know we had factories stop building cars build Spitfires that was the you just got to now that’s what Russia’s done very effectively it’s tripled its production of artillery rounds I think this year they’re expecting to build four and a half million artillery rounds this year um whereas Ukraine probably needs a couple of million a year the West promised at the Europe sorry promised a million this year I think we’ve produced about 30% of those so far and that’s because just haven’t spun up the factories we’re doing it now but it’s taken a lot longer to get behind Russia has also been a to import uh artillery rounds from North Korea so it actually has become self- sustaining because it’s got the oil Revenue to pay for this stuff and keep going it’s not entirely clear therefore why it’s dependent on China I think part of the China bid is more for uh an axis of likeminded countries and therefore giving uh Russia a little bit more self esteem a little bit more credibility on the global stage and for now I think whilst on balance China is slightly sitting on Russia’s side of the fence it’s very carefully diplomatically avoiding just jumping into bed with Putin and just finally to go back to a point you made earlier Sean it is interesting how ever since the fullscale invasion started there’s been a familiar pattern of Ukraine requesting certain bits of Western kit whether it’s anti-tank missiles main battle tanks attacks whatever the West wested first dragging its feet and then finally seeding to the Ukrainian demands and handing them over do you see any sign of that changing and actually the West being more proactive in handing over new Weaponry yeah that that it’s a great Point James I mean I think um there was an exercise that was done about six months ago that looked back and said um what might have happened if the West had given anti-tank weapons main battle tanks l range missiles in other words all the stuff we have finally agreed to today if we just said agreed at the start would would that change the course of the war and if you then look at that lens say okay what else could we do and why don’t we do it now rather than waiting to till that point in time and the question then is where do you go with that um I think you’re already seeing France talk about boots on the ground um and let’s unpack that a little bit you know some in the west get panicky but actually what you’re trying to do is change the calculus of Putin you’re trying to say this is now on the table and if this happens would I be able to live with the consequences of that and almost certainly Russia angle would be no no no he couldn’t so therefore it starts to reduce Putin’s timeline in which he needs to get results done in other words if his special military operation really is about the the dbass the landbridge and Crimea he hasn’t yet gone the donbass then all of a sudden he might push a bit harder because he doesn’t think he has as much time and if he pushes harder that actually creates an opportunity for Ukraine as well so I do think things like boots on the ground that’s one um do I think we’re going to see that happening anytime soon no I don’t um another one is a no-fly zone uh that was talked about for many times it’s a whole podcast worth of discussion to get into the the wise and the wherefores that happy to contribute to that but I think in principle that is something that I think is viable because the um once there’s all sorts of things that would create difficulties it wasn’t the right thing at the start of the war but actually the Russian Air Force has finally got itself in in some form of order Glide bombs are causing Carnage on the front line and I think most of the West believe that no fly zone would be incredibly difficult for Russia to combat and could abs absolutely um put swing the pendulum in Ukraine’s um benefit the other one of course is the freedom to use more modern weapons uh into uh into Russia as well as in Ukraine um that I think the more modern weapons I’m more cautious about because your defense James my defense our national interest is in the technology that our modern weapons contain and that s those doubt into our enemy if we were to use those today to help Ukraine they would fall into Russian hands therefore that would compromise our own National Security and I’m not entirely sure that our military Masters or our political Masters are ready to do that and I think there will be some really significant challenges um strategically if that were to happen but do I think there are other things that could be done yes do I think we’re going to see some of those yes but I also think we we’re not just going to see this effort on the battlefield we’re going to see a lot more effort in the political and the economic sphere all of which designed not to put pressure on to Putin but to put pressure on the layer below him that historically every now and again says this ain’t working we used to enjoy sending our children to uh to the UK we’d like to have them educated o Oxford and Cambridge we like going to harod for shopping we like going you know all of those things that they can’t do at the moment and actually if they see the pendulum swing against them then actually by solving the Putin problem um that might resolve uh the war so we’ll see Shan Bell it’s always a pleasure thank you so much for joining us today on Frontline you’re welcome James loveely to chat thank you for watching Frontline for times radio for more click subscribe on our YouTube channel you can listen to times radio and you can read more about the war in Ukraine and Global Security with your times digital subscription

“by the end of this month, Russia will have sustained half a million casualties.”

Russia’ heightened casualties north of Kharkiv won’t help putin breakthrough as they do not have the necessary armour, Retired Air Vice-Marshal Sean Bell tells Frontline on #timesradio

📻 Listen to Times Radio – https://www.thetimes.co.uk/radio

📍 Subscribe to our channel – http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCTjDhFuGXlhx9Us0gq0VK2w?sub_confirmation=1

🗞 Subscribe to The Times https://www.thetimes.co.uk/subscribe/radio-3for3/

📲 Get the free Times Radio app https://www.thetimes.co.uk/radio/how-to-listen-to-times-radio/app