NATO’s options to put pressure on Putin explained | Sean Bell

NATO’s options to put pressure on Putin explained | Sean Bell

you’re already seeing France talk about boots on the ground um and let’s unpack that a little bit you know some in the west get panicky but actually what you’re trying to do is change the calculus of Putin you’re trying to say this is now on the table and if this happens would I be able to live with the consequences of that and almost certainly Russia angle would be no no no he couldn’t so therefore it starts to reduce tin’s timeline in which he needs to get results done in other words if his special military operation really is about the dbass the landbridge and Crimea he hasn’t yet gone the dbass then all of a sudden he might push a bit harder because he doesn’t think he has as much time and if he pushes harder that actually creates an opportunity for Ukraine as well so I do think things like boots on the ground that’s one um do I think we’re going to see that happening anytime soon no I don’t um another one is a no-fly zone that was talked about for many times it’s a whole podcast worth of discussion to get into the the wise and the were fores that I’m very happy to contribute to that but I think in principle that is something that I think is viable because the um once there’s all sorts of things that will create difficulties it wasn’t the right thing at the start of the war but actually the Russian Air Force has finally got itself in in in some form of order Glide bombs are causing Carnage on the front line and I think most of the West believe the no fly zone would be incredibly difficult for Russia to combat and could absolutely um put swing the pendulum in Ukraine’s um benefit the other one of course is the freedom to use more modern weapons uh into uh into Russia as well as in Ukraine um that I think the more modern weapons I’m more cautious about because your defense James my defense our interest is in the technology that our modern weapons contain and that s so doubt into our enemies if we were to use those today to help Ukraine they would fall into Russian hands therefore that would compromise our own National Security and I’m not entirely sure that our military Masters or our political Masters are ready to do that and I think there will be some really significant challenges um strategically if that were to happen but do I think there are other things that could be done yes do I think we’re going to see some of those yes but I also think we we’re not just going to see this effort on the battlefield we’re going to see a lot more effort in the political and the economic sphere all of which designed not to put pressure onto Putin but to put pressure on the layer below him that historically every now and again says this ain’t working we used to enjoy sending our children to uh to the UK we’d like to have them educated o Oxford and Cambridge we like going to harod for shopping we like going you know all of those things that they can’t do at the moment and actually if they see the pendulum swing against them then actually by solving the Putin problem um that might resolve uh the war so we’ll see America has been very careful to say that um given the opening of a second front or potential second front around KH um by the Russians that um that the US recognizes that Ukraine will need to use weapons outside of Ukrainian territory but it has been very clear it’s in the defense of kke so it hasn’t given C blanch secondly it said they must be targeting military targets not civilian and thirdly my understanding is that they’ve not included attacks that Army tactical missile system in that uh in that caveat which is about 300 kilometer range so um but in a way even though there are caveats I’m a great believer you can’t be a little bit pregnant you know you either do allow that stuff to Target or not and America now has said they can and they joined sort of UK the um uh the French the poles and the Germans all of which have taken the shackles off the ability to use these weapons uh deeper within Uh Russian territory and I think that will be pretty significant let let’s give you an example um so um when this second front around KH opened up for several months Ukraine has known that Russia has been massing troops between 30 and 50,000 troops in the area but it couldn’t do anything about it um and it had to wait until they came across the border um if they had had the weapons to attack those they would have undoubtedly caused a lot of difficulty for Russia you can’t easily Mass 50,000 people and keep them hidden it’s because it’s not just about the people it’s the vehicles it’s the weapons it’s the food it’s the logistics they come with a huge tals so uh able to Target those would be really really uh useful for the ukrainians whilst Putin is the front of house the real power history shows is with the oligarchs with the generals and stuff like that and if they generally see their quality of life imploding there’s normally a correction of some form and Russia self corrects itself and I think what the westers decided is that yes military is important but also politically Russia wants to be a great again their leaders has been indicted by the international criminal court and there are other things that can be done Against The Wider body of Russian supporting the war and the economic one is that you know at the moment Russia is spending 40% of its you know spending on defense that’s just not sustainable I mean all of the other things that you would be spending money on as a government loads of them aren’t being spent people are hemorrhaging away from the country it’s not investing in the long term and Russia had I think it was about 700 100 billion of reserves um that’s down at about 200 billion now um and some of that has been locked away Frozen by the west and remember there’s been this discussion about oh we can’t take that money off Putin that would be illegal it does look likely now they’ve decided it would be illegal to take the money off him but the interest it’s earning is not illegal so actually if we were to seize that 200 billion and if we were to lock it into a bond and and let the money come out in 40 years time then the interest is worth money and you could give that lump sum in advance to Ukraine and so there’s all sorts of different ways I think that um the West is going to apply pressure across these three lines but you must make sure the military one doesn’t fail but it doesn’t mean that you have to win on the battlefield in order to achieve the long-term strategic objectives for Ukraine and you only have to look at the number of tanks that Russia has lost which they don’t dispute they’re bringing their Old Second World War Tanks out of storage to throw at the battlefield um they are struggling for equipment so even if they do make a breakthrough most military analysts don’t think that they’re going to make a strategic breakthrough in other words start taking significantly more chunks of Ukrainian land um but that then calls into what do we think Putin’s new objective is his his objective initially was to take Ukraine three days probably maximum we’re now here at 800 days over 800 days into campaign I think Russia originally at its peak had 177% of the territory of Ukraine I understand now it’s down at 11% um so not withstanding the Tactical here or there you know tuings and throwings Russia is struggling on the battlefield it’s trying to capitalize on this shortage of weapons and will’ll probably pay a big price for that if you were a military man you’d be going right this is an opportunity to capitalize I don’t care what the human cost is just throw the bodies at the front line because ultimately we will break through and make a strategic breakthrough and therefore it’s quite possible that for the next couple of months um Russia will be taking that sort of tactical approach to this conflict and it’s quite possible they’ll pay huge price on the battlefield for it looking at the Geo politics of The Wider War I wonder how significant you feel sh the relationship between Moscow and Beijing is because you’ve got president zalinski accusing China of working with Russia to undermine his upcoming Global Peace Summit in Switzerland and there is a suspicion even though China publicly says it is neutral in the conflict that Chinese components are being used by Russia how significant would you say the relationship is between the two countries well there’s a lot in there James um first of all Yes No Doubt Chinese components being used for Russia unfortunately so are American so are British so before we become too critical um Russia’s got very effective at finding its way around sanctions and in a world of Economics people are always prepared to to pay good money to get what they need and there’s no doubt that some of the Shah drones that been shut down some of the the missiles that been shut down even North Korea that they have packed full of Western technology um so there’s a real real question to be answered there the interesting I think going to your core of your question though about Xi Jinping and Putin um before the war started if you ever saw them on the global stage they looked both literally and metaphorically similar sized people when you see them together now Russia appears to be the subordinate Russia needs China far more than China needs Russia uh the worry here of course is that Russia is trying to generate an access of evil let’s use some Malad dramatic terms where you have China Russia North Korea and Iran who have a vested interest in operating and creating an alternative to Nato um a as being deadly that there is a risk of that no doubt but what we also have to be careful of here is that China is not Russia China has some economic challenges of its own at the moment and China most of its business is done through its export markets vast quantities of exports to the rest of the world you’ll remember not that long ago America said there was something like 10 times as many imports from China as there were exports and he would and trying to get that better balanced if China was to fall foul of the West you’d imagine those Imports would stop almost immediately now there are some that things like 5G which are clearly would be uncomfortable if you lost that but a lot of China is known for just cheap and cheerful stuff clothing cheap goodies and stuff like that you can stop those being exported in a heartbeat so um China would massively suffer economically if it was to actually take sides what’s far more likely is that China’s got one eye on Taiwan at the moment and is sort of going if I go into Taiwan what will happen and Russia went into Ukraine and in reality whil the West has helped Ukraine it will not go in directly and help it uh so so far so almost certainly uh Taiwan would not in provoke America and the UK to rush to military aid that’s what um China will judge but it would have to deal with the consequences and it might have thought before uh Russia invaded Ukraine that the consequences might have been palatable because the West would would blink a little bit and then a couple of years would go by everything be back to normal it’s probably watched what’s happened to Russia in Ukraine and gone actually this could have longer term consequences and I think therefore whilst there is a danger that China and Russia are in bed together in reality I think China is strategically far more um looking far further ahead being far more measured understands that the West is vital to its long-term Prosperity at least at the moment even though there’s no doubt that it will pursue its own military objectives particularly in the South China Sea over the coming weeks and decades thank you for watching front line for times radio for more click subscribe on our YouTube channel you can listen to times radio and you can read more about the war in Ukraine and Global Security with your times digital subscription

“If the oligarchs see the pendulum swing against them, then actually by solving the Putin problem, that might resolve, the war.”

NATO’s options to put pressure on Putin aren’t just limited to Ukraine explains Retired Air Vice-Marshal Sean Bell on Frontline.

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