‘The Kremlin knows this is not sustainable’ as Putin’s losses mount in Ukraine | Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges

‘The Kremlin knows this is not sustainable’ as Putin’s losses mount in Ukraine | Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges

um I don’t think what they’re doing is sustainable Beyond next year yes they have a population that’s three times the size of of Ukraine but um it’s well known that this is not a healthy population and you have a hard time finding too many Russians that actually want to join the Army and come into Ukraine uh they they know what happens now the Russians also know the Kremlin knows that this is not sustainable that’s why they have avoided recru heavily from Moscow and St Petersburg because they don’t want a bunch of funerals happening in those cities uh instead the funerals tend to happen out in the uh poorer regions of the Russian Federation Central and Eastern Russia um where people are willing to take uh the bonus um of of money if they join the military and you know the Kremlin doesn’t care about those casualties but I don’t think that they can maintain their industry and an army of the size that they need given the casualties they’re suffering hello and welcome to front line for times radio I’m James Hansen and today we’re once again talking about the latest on the war in Ukraine and I’m delighted to be joined by leftenant General Ben Hodges General Hodges served for 38 years in the US Army commanding in Iraq and Afghanistan and was commander US Army Year from 2014 to 2017 we always appreciate your time on Frontline General welcome back well James thanks and I always appreciate the privilege of being on your program I wanted to start by putting to you something we were discussing on yesterday’s episode of Frontline I was talking to the historian Dr Yuri felshtinsky and he said in his view last week’s decision by the US to allow American supplied weapons to strike targets inside Russia could be a turning point in this war do you agree well turning point is a uh pretty strong word especially when you consider how limited the actual policy decision is it still prohibits the use of the 300 kilometer attachs uh for use inside at legitimate targets inside Russia and it also uh limits this uh new policy to the area that is affecting that is linked to harkee so not exact I don’t see that as quite the uh such a turning point um it’s good news obviously and and the ukrainians didn’t waste any time in hitting targets uh air defense weapons Logistics Etc on the Russian side of the border and you know surprise surprise Russia did not retaliate with nuclear weapons so you know we just continue to deter ourself because of an excessive fear that Russia might do something about it I I think this this hesitancy and indecision and incremental decision making is a reflection of the fact that we have not committed to helping Ukraine win we still don’t have a clearly defined instate for this war and it’s difficult to have good policy if you don’t have a clearly defined instate why is that do you think because you know repeatedly since the start of this conflict since the fullscale invasion time and again we’ve seen Ukraine requesting certain pieces of military support and initially being met with resistance whether it’s anti-tank missiles or main battle tanks or the attack thems or now being able to use Western weapons inside Russia and resistance at first to giving way eventually had we been more proactive as In fairness to you generally you’ve been calling for all along surely would’ be in a very different situation I think it’d be a completely different situation I mean think about Russia’s inability to exploit the six-month window in which no us Aid was forthcoming and Europe did not step up to fill that Gap so almost half a year and Russia was not able to really uh exploit that in any meaningful way uh they’ve barely moved Beyond abiva or bakut uh and they’re not going to be able to capture harv or overrun the Ukrainian defenses around there now to be clear it’s it’s hell for civilians that live in heart uh and it’s very difficult for Ukrainian troops that are getting pounded by Russian Artillery but the fact is Russia does not have the ability to overrun or knock out Ukraine and so if we had been providing everything that was needed for Ukraine to win versus providing them just enough to keep them in the fight I think we would see uh significant U losses even more significant losses of Russia military capability sackur General cavoli said you can defeat Mass which is Russia’s only Advantage you can defeat Mass with Precision by going after headquarters Logistics and artillery uh and you know we we did not provide that to the ukrainians as we should have well that does beg the question what more we should be doing at the moment how much more proactive should the west and Ukraine’s allies be should we be looking at a no-fly zone for instance should we be looking at troops NATO troops on the ground as macron has sort of suggested at times what more do you think we should be doing General well at the risk of sounding like a scratch record the first thing we’ve got to do is is determine what is our desired outstate or outcome what is the Strategic objective for what we’re doing obviously it should be help Ukraine defeat Russia because it is in the Strategic interests of the United States of UK of of everybody in Europe that Russia is defeated forc back to its own borders the 1991 Sovereign borders of Ukraine to force Russia to live within their own borders to defeat them in Ukraine it’s in our interest that that happens for economic reasons for security re reasons and also for the reason of values what we claim as we value so much the international rules-based order respect for sovereignty respect for freedom of navigation respect for human rights respect for international law that’s what’s at stake here and of course the Chinese are watching to see if we really are serious about those things so the first thing that should happen would be my president the German buness counselor your Prime Minister President macron and others say it is our strategic objective that Ukraine defeats Russia wins the war if you did that first of all that would open the gates then for providing everything that’s needed secondly that would tell the Kremlin that their only hope their only hope was that we were going to quit has been dashed and that they are the ones that should desperately be trying to salvage what they can if we’ve done that now we start talking about practical implementation you know policy decisions like establishing a no fly zone that that is a policy decision but to do a no fly zone this is not like Star Trek you know where big giant deflector Shields come up but where you have to put uh Royal Air Force US Air Force German lufa Pilots up in the air uh and that are prepared to destroy Russian air defense systems that may even be inside Russia you cannot have a no-fly zone if the enemy is able to shoot down your aircraft and you also have to be prepared to go in and pick up Pilots that have been shot down that may have parachuted to the ground inside Russia these are these are important considerations for a policy of no fly zone now you could also of course U think about putting um us or British or French air defense systems with American British or French Crews inside Ukraine to augment what they already have but you you just need to be aware that okay there’s a very good chance that some of them are going to be destroyed because the Russians will come after them so I’m not against having American troops on the ground there but if I was the chief of the US Army and was told get ready to deploy um your men and women into Ukraine I’d say great we’ll be ready but what for what purpose what is the objective why are we doing this what are we hoping to accomplish it’s too easy for our political leaders to just to throw troops at a problem to throw airplanes at a problem without ever thinking through to the instate we spent 20 years in Afghanistan and only had a clear objective in the first year and then after that we were had different policies um and it all ended in a catastrophe um because we we lost sight of the original reason for being there which I suppose begs the question General how do you define Ukraine winning this war is it reclaiming all the territory that Russia has occupied since 2022 is it reclaiming the territory that Russia has occupied since 2014 what should we consider consider Ukraine and Ukraine’s Victory to be well James that’s that’s the easiest question you’ve asked me uh president zalinski has said it’s restoration of Ukrainian sovereignty which means the 1991 borders I completely agree with that that should be our objective otherwise um if we only push back to the N the 2022 border that means that Russian aggression that started in 2014 that led to the illegal annexation of Crimea and the support of the so-called separatists and the dbass that they would be rewarded for that and certainly nobody that’s ever read a history book or looked at a map really believes that Russia would live up to any agreement where they kept Ukraine or excuse me Crimea and said okay that’s all we ever really wanted no serious person will believe that that all they wanted is just crimeia and then I think um investors are going to be very reluctant to put serious money into the Reconstruction of Ukraine after the conflict after the war is over if Russia still controls Crimea because that will block access in and out of aav sea where two of Ukraine’s five main sea ports Mari and berans even after their liberated uh won’t be rebuilt or won’t be able to function again for Ukraine because Russia will control access to AA SE if they still occupy Crimea and that big Kirch bridge is still standing there so I think this is very shortsighted and naive for anybody to think that Ukraine could be okay that this would be a good outcome with Russia retaining control of the N the 2022 uh terrain territory um and then if if we’re serious if we’re serious about what we say with respect for sovereignty and the UN Charter and the international rules based order all those things how how can you allow Russia to keep what they’ve taken and the Chinese will certainly be taking note that um we we were unwilling to really stand up for what we say or claim is so important and it’s much more difficult to do that out in the indopacific region than it is in Europe so Victory it’s restoration of Ukrainian Sovereign territory uh Return of the 20,000 plus Ukrainian children that have been kidnapped and dispersed all over Russia uh accountability for for war crimes and then um a security arrangement for Ukraine which should be U NATO membership anything short of NATO membership is not a guarantee but we’re going to have to do things to make sure that Russia does not reack Ukraine hello it’s James here sorry to interrupt this episode of Front Line we’ll be right back with the main interview in just a moment I just wanted to jump in to mention a brand new channel we’re going to be launching on YouTube that I have a feeling you’re going to love it’s called history undone and if you like Frontline I reckon this is going to be up your street every episode we’re going to be undoing a different iconic moment in history in other words we’ll take a famous event or battle and replay it and explore what the long-term historical consequences would have been had certain key factors panned out differently I’ll be joined each time by a top historian and a military strategist and in the very first episode of History undone we’re going to be winding the clock back 80 years and going back to Operation Overlord AKA dday and looking at the American landing on Omaha Beach so check it out like And subscribe it’s history undone I mean I think to be honest General pretty much everyone watching will agree with you on that I suppose the suspicion is though that the White House and that Ukraine’s allies in Europe may take a different View and may see the end of this conflict involving allowing Russia to for example keep Crimea where do you think the White House’s thinking is at the moment on this unfortunately I think you’re right I mean the fact that they can’t even say the words it’s our objective for Ukraine to win speaks volumes the fact that the decision making over the last two plus years has been so slow so incremental so um U it did not contribute in a way to achieving the Strategic objective that we’re talking about um tells you that they are not fully committed to helping Ukraine win now look the the Biden White House deserves huge credit for helping to keep 50 plus Nations together for all that has been provided but unfortunately the priority in the white house has been escalation management as if somehow there’s a rail stat that you can adjust left and right to control Russia uh that’s that’s not how it works and um I I think that the U Administration probably would be satisfied if this whole thing just kind of ground to a halt and that uh Russia agreed to okay okay we’ll stop just let us keep what we have um and U and by the way Ukraine cannot join NATO so so Russia would have achieved much of what they wanted and I think that there are unfortunately a lot of really good patriotic smart hardworking people in the White House that have been been dead wrong about Russia both when they worked in the Obama Administration and now when they work in the Biden Administration so uh I don’t see that changing significantly unfortunately in the next few months having said that the United States is one country you know Europe is going to pay an enormous price if Ukraine fails or if Russia is not defeated Millions more Ukrainian refugees are going to head into Europe um the disruption to energy and Food Supplies are going to continue to affect all of us economically and the Chinese are going to learn a lesson from this that the West can be easily deterred just by the threat of moving a tactical nuclear weapon into bellarus it causes us to stop in our tracks that’s a terrible message to send to Iran North Korea China and anybody else that has or wants to have a nuclear weapon so talk me through General were the US and Europe to to make a collective decision we are going to give Ukraine everything it needs to win this war to push Russia back to the pre-24 borders what would then happen what how would you then achieve that Victory what needs to happen from that point yeah so I think there’s three main things that that have to happen uh assuming now that all of our leaders have said publicly just like Church illan Roosevelt did um after the Arcadia conference in January 19 1942 where they made the decision defeat Germany first and then in 1943 at the Casablanca conference Church illen Roosevelt again said the instate of this war is unconditional surrender of Nazi Germany and the Empire of Japan not get Hitler to a a better negotiating position but to unconditional surrender so that Clarity of of inate clarity of priority that’s what enabled uh the United States where most Americans did not want to go into a European War if you uh I’m sure you’re aware and your listeners are aware most Americans had zero interest in getting back into a war in Europe uh in 1940 41 uh but Roosevelt and Churchill together were able to explain what was at stake and that’s what then and they gave the president the uh the foundation to win the confidence of the Congress and the American people to to convert our Industries to what was needed and to grow the m massive armies navies and air forces that were needed to work with our allies to defeat Nazi Germany and then the Empire of Japan so that that’s why I keep banging on about how important it is to have a clearly defined strategic instate now let’s assume that’s been done uh obviously we’ve got to provide the U air and missile defense capabilities to protect Ukrainian cities Ukrainian people from the murder that uh they’re suffering from Russian uh Glide bombs and multi-million dollar weapons that are being launched into the middle of cities so increasing their ability to protect their infrastructure and their people um has got to be a priority but that also includes them having the ability to hit the airfields from which Russian air strikes are being launched um the uh former Supreme Alli Commander General Breedlove he uses the phrase It’s better to kill the Archer than to try and intercept all of the arrows I completely agree with that that we should be helping Ukraine destroy all the places from which uh Russia is launching these murderous attacks against innocent people the second thing that’s got to happen is that we have got to use all of our economic tools to isolate Russia from its what it gets from China from Iran and from North Korea I can’t believe that the combined economies and uh navies um of the West the so-called West allies and partners that we are not able to stop what’s going into Russia um I’m not naive but I I can’t believe we hadn’t come up with a better way to do that uh Russia is still exporting oil and gas and stolen wheat from Ukraine out through the Black Sea uh through the Bosphorus and then uh transloading it to uh other ships that then sell it in Syria for example but there also this so-called Shadow Fleet about which Elizabeth bra has uh done good work um it sails out through the Baltic Sea I mean almost every week There’s a ship that’s unseaworthy not properly insured not uh in compliance with international law and they sell out carrying millions of liters of oil that’s what keeps Russia in the fight we have got to be able to use all of our economic tools if we were serious about winning that would have already taken place and then the third thing that we’ve got to do of course is give uh Ukraine the long range Precision strike capability that means more us 300 kilm range atoms Germany needs to get off of the dime and provide the 500 kilometer range Taurus uh and then France and UK with their excellent uh scalp and Storm Shadow systems I mean we should be in full wartime production of these capabilities that’s what destroys Russia headquarters Russian Logistics and Russian Artillery and do you think Ukraine should be allowed to use those weapons for example to strike Moscow itself because there is an argument that unless the war comes to Mainland Russia and really impacts ordinary Russians and those in Moscow around Putin that there won’t be any internal impress internal pressure on him well of course none of those weapons which I just named can reach Moscow Moscow is more than 700 kilomet from harkee so even if they lined up a bunch of atacam being fired from the haar’s launchers around ourke they’d fall well short um now the fact that Ukraine has launched some drones to I think symbolically hit the Kremlin uh back a year or two ago just like when the United States launched the the famous dittle raid to hit Japan shortly after pear Harbor it was it was more symbolic to send the signal that to the Japanese that they were not safe from an American Counter Strike but I think the ukrainians have no interest in symbolic strikes against Moscow what they’re interested in is devastating the Russian oil and gas industry which pays for this War uh but the weapons that we would be providing are the kind that would knock out headquarters Logistics artillery airfields uh radar U the things necessary for Russia to prosecute their war against Ukraine ukrainians are not interested I think in doing the other things there’s more than enough targets inside Russian occupied Ukraine and in the three 400 kilometers deep into Russia um that are legitimate uh military targets and for which there is no legal or moral reason not to allow them to hit those targets as things stand General when do you think Ukraine may be in a position to launch a new counter offensive well I think um we’re at a point in the war now where their their priority is to stabilize um there may be some tactical successes on either side back and forth over individual Villages that sort of thing but I don’t see Russia having the ability to knock Ukraine out of the war or vice versa so instead for Ukraine this is about maintaining uh their strategic bombing if you will which is the strikes on their oil and gas platform uh continue their efforts to uh make Crimea the decisive terrain of this war uninhabitable and unusable for the Russian Navy Air Force and army uh doing that exactly as they did when they had the first British storm Shadows were used to destroy the British excuse me the Ukrainian Dry Dock in sopal and the Black Sea Fleet headquarters in sopel where they proved the the the uh concept of making Crimea untenable with longrange Precision weapons the Black Sea Fleet is evacuating there so I think they’re going to continue the pressure on uh on Crimea both in terms of making it uh untenable that’s the right word uh for the Russians but also isolating it by um going after the railroad that connects Crimea back to Russia uh continuing to destroy ships that would be used to move stuff across aav sea to Crimea and then of course eventually that big bridge is going to go down uh when the ukrainians are ready for it to go down that’s going to continue but in order to launch a Counter Strike they’re going to have to become very very confident and comfortable uh and experience with air power uh which you know they’re going to see an increase in air power I don’t know how much or exactly when but over the next uh coming months we’ll see that uh ukrainians will grow their ability they already know how to fly very well but fighting f-16s in operations is is different from just being able to fly the aircraft so that’ll be part of it I’m sure they won’t try some sort of Counter Strike or counter offensive until they have mastered the air ground uh teamwork required which they did not do last year but also they’ve got to grow the size of the army um they they they don’t have a people problem there there’s probably two million women and men that are military age that could be in uniform but they started slow in developing the infrastructure required for recruiting and training new units that’s got to happen and I think that’s feasible that they could have several more brigades that are properly equipped and trained by the end of this year and so then you now you’re starting to talk about having the conditions right for a successful Counterattack it’s a really interesting point you raised there about Manpower and of course Russia given its population is so much bigger has an advantage in that sense but I just wanted to get your thoughts thoughts on the Russian casualty rate I mean the Ukrainian general staff claimed last week that Russia had suffered more than a thousand casualties in a day and there are reports meanwhile that Russia is forcibly sending troops with serious medical issues to the front line that is trying to militarize deported Ukrainian youth how sustainable is the Russian casualty race actually um I don’t think what they’re doing is sustainable Beyond next year yes they have a population that’s three times the size of of Ukraine but um it’s well known that this is not a healthy population and you have a hard time finding too many Russians that actually want to join the Army and come into Ukraine uh they they know what happens now the Russians also know the Kremlin knows that this is not sustainable that’s why they have avoided recruiting heavily from Moscow and St Petersburg because they don’t want a bunch of funerals happen in those cities uh instead the funerals tend to happen out in the poorer regions of the Russian Federation Central and Eastern Russia um where people are willing to take uh the bonus uh of of money if they join the military and you know the Kremlin doesn’t care about those casualties but I don’t think that they can maintain their industry and an army of the size that they need given the casualties they’re suffering it’s now more profitable for a man to leave his job at the tank Factory Factory and join the Army he gets more money if he does that so they their Manpower shortage is also being felt on the industry side so um the the pressure won’t be be won’t be because mothers are out there wailing away uh at their sons and husbands being killed as what happened in Afghanistan it’ll be because they just can’t keep it up um and I think that part of our effort should be to help reach the Russian population somehow uh conducting information operations and or making them feel uh the impact of Ukraine destroying the oil and gas industry that will that will affect Russians daily lives as well just finally General there is a certain irony that we are having this conversation as world leaders are gathering in Normandy for the 80th anniversary commemorations of Operation Overlord of dday of course and I just wonder what lessons we should be drawing from the events of the second world war particularly amid heighten speculation that we are on course at some point for a third so uh three things come to mind immediately and thank thanks for bringing that up James first of all cleare eyed courageous strategic leadership leaders that can uh take know that uh in conditions of uncertainty they understand what what is at stake that what happens if we lose uh everything we care about what what the price of that failure is and um I think that’s frankly that’s missing today uh and it’s not like we’re stupider or more stupid than we were back in 1944 it’s we’re not as courageous as we were back in 1944 we we’ve lost confidence in oursel and in our institutions and we’ve allowed Russia to uh uh influence how we think and and now we’re terrified that they might do something that they’re actually not going to do so that’s that’s the first thing the second thing of course is the scale required to defend what we say is so important in terms of our defense Industries ammunition production ships planes all the stuff that’s needed uh the uh to take advantage of new technologies that are out there on a scale it’s necessary to defeat Russia isolate Iran deter North Korea and deter China I mean that’s the Strategic problem set we have and all of those are connected these are not four separate small problems all of these are connected in such a way that we have to show that we have the political will the industrial capacity and Military capability to do all those tasks defeat Russia first isolate Iran which will happen once Russia has been defeated deter North Korea and deter China from making a terrible decision and then the third thing third and final thing of course is quality women and men in uniform and in all of our services uh it doesn’t matter what your technology is if you don’t have committed trained disciplined women and men serving in uniform to perform all those tasks with whatever technology our governments provide to them General Hodes we always appreciate your time thank you so so much for joining us today on front line thank you for the privilege

“I don’t think that they can maintain their industry and an army of this size that they need, given the casualties they’re suffering.”

Russian manpower shortages because of the war in Ukraine are not sustainable, Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges tells Frontline on #timesradio
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