Ukraine War Explained: Why Russia’s Forgotten Fuel Changed Everything! | Peter Zeihan

Ukraine War Explained: Why Russia’s Forgotten Fuel Changed Everything! | Peter Zeihan

okay the green part if you’re going to be in Russia that’s where you want to be that’s where the winter is not so horrible that you can’t even grow wheat if you go to the north to the blue you’re in tundra and Tei and it is empty and it is worthless or you can go to the yellow in the South and which is Desert which is equally empty and worthless but what drives the Russians to binge drink is the beige in between territories that even by Russian standards are worthless but they’re flat and they’re open and you can totally shove a mongle horde through there so the strategy for the Russians going back to the early Zars has always been the same expand out of the green through the beige until you reach a series of geographic barriers that you can’t run a Panzer Division through and then Ford position your troops in the access points between those barriers if you can do that you can proc clude invasions from ever happening and under Stalin they pulled that off and then it all fell apart at the end of the Cold War and everything that the Kremlin has done since not Putin the Kremlin has been about rebuilding that outer crustal defense the Ukraine war was always going to happen and it’s not the first posts Soviet conflict it is the ninth and it won’t be the last if the Russians win now if you remember back to the opening week of the war when we had that 60 km long Convoy of military vehicles going from bellarus South to keev and people like me were like wow I thought this would be quick I didn’t think it would be that quick and then the Convoy stopped on the fourth day of the war because the Russians forgot fuel I don’t know anyone in any NATO Capital who saw that as a positive development CU if there’s any thing we understand about the Russians This Is How They see the world and we now know that the Russians don’t have an army they have a mob with guns very different proposition and so if the Russians succeed in Ukraine when they come for the next line of countries which involves Romania Estonia Lavia Lithuania and of course Poland they will come against NATO and they will be obliterated but that doesn’t change their security Perceptions in needs and they will use everything that they have and we will find out just how good our missile defense is that is the price of letting Ukraine fall that’s the why here’s the why now 15 years ago the Russians just start stopped collecting data and started making it up so this bulge probably doesn’t exist there are 8 million men left in their 20s in the Russian Federation between defect c s out at migration and death they’ve lost 1.5 million in the war so far they can maintain this pace for another 6 to 8 years and then Russia is over the Russians are fighting for space they’re fighting for what they perceive as a defensible perimeter we are fighting for time all right let’s talk about Poland and the region agriculture the Deep green on this map are the parts of the world that were under large scale cultivation before the Industrial Revolution all the light green are the areas that have been brought under till since so whenever you’re thinking about agriculture wherever you are land quality input access those are the two things you have to look at now in the case of Europe in general and Poland in specific there’s a lot of dark green the land is good let’s talk about the input question the big numbers on the left that is the percentage of each of the three major nutrients nitrogen phosphate poach that the Americans import you’ll notice that for the first two we’re pretty much self-sufficient potash is where we have that exposure however that big wedge the big red wedge all that exposure that’s Canada so you know they’re good for some something these are the only Parts where the Americans are vulnerable to conflict zones couple small wedges very manageable here are America’s primary agricultural competitors well crap oh it it gets worse because here’s China and here’s the Middle East you break down globalization the global food supply system breaks with it now in the case of Europe you are somewhere in between between your exposure isn’t to Russia it’s to the Middle East which I know normally sounds bad but if you look around the world the right now the Middle East is the calmest part of it which feels very strange but you know go with it while it lasts also your overall exposure while it’s you know right at about 50% is not nearly as big as all of the other major agricultural players because your land is better so on AEG I am not worried about Europe let’s talk manufacturing for a minute if you’re at the bottom of this Matrix your supply chain is so simple you can write it on the back of a cocktail napkin after you’ve been at the bar for a couple hours if you’re at the top you have no idea who your fourth tier supplier is much less your 14th if you’re all the way on the left your system is dependent upon mainland China and if you’re on the right it’s already within the EU Network everybody got that okay couple stakes in the ground doesn’t get much easier than this primarily agricultural inputs agricultural labor comes from the locals most of the consumption and processing is here as well this is as simple as it gets and this is the opposite the iPhone has 1,400 supply chain steps and after 4 years of dogged efforts by Apple to diversify away from mainland China they have gone from 91% exposure to 90% exposure whenever a new model comes out I buy an extra because I will never use Android here’s everybody all at once the future of Europe and specifically the future of Poland is this oval things are in that mid sophistication tier but not necessarily energy intensive these are the Productions that we’re going to lose on a global basis as we lose China and these are the ones that Poland from a labor point of view from a capital point of view from an industrial plant point of view is very well positioned to step into not too worried about energy in Europe because you’ve got Norway I’m not too worried about agriculture in Europe because you have land quality and processing I’m not too worried about Manufacturing in Europe if you can figure out the consumption side of the equation but from a production point of view this is a growth story and that means we have to look at one final piece and that’s the guns the last time we were in a situation where Poland was on an industrial Agriculture and strategic rise and its neighbors were doing the opposite things thing Poland conquered Moscow now I’m not saying that’s where this goes don’t overplay this if I had to lay this all at the feet of one group it would probably to be today the American baby boomers uh for the last 40 years they have been the singular economic and political force on the American Stage as they have their kids as they approach retirement as they generate the largest concentration of capital the world has ever seen and half of them are now retired yeah so the American engagement that we’ve seen that a lot of Europeans a lot of people in the world find how should I put this aggravating yeah it’s the baby MERS it’s not me and now that they’re liquidating their Capital stock and moving in retirement and going from being taxpayers and capital providers to tax takers we’re moving into a very different world cuz some version of that that has happened all everywhere but the capital boom we experienced as a world in 2 in the 2000s and the 2010s that’s now flipping in the other direction and if you take what used to be the most engaged and the largest of the American Generations ever and now disengage them and turn them into narcissistic retirees it doesn’t really matter what the Americans want to do the capital is no longer there the workforce exposure is is no longer there and retirees are notorious for being a little prickly and that is now how American politics will be for the next decade [Music] [Music]

Ukraine War Explained: Why Russia’s Forgotten Fuel Changed Everything! | Peter Zeihan

This video delves into the geopolitical strategies and challenges faced by Russia, particularly focusing on its historical and current territorial ambitions. It explores the Russian perspective on their geographic vulnerabilities, the significance of the Ukraine war, and the broader implications for neighboring countries and NATO. The discussion also covers the demographic and economic issues within Russia, highlighting their impact on the country’s long-term stability.

The analysis extends to the agricultural and manufacturing sectors in Europe, emphasizing Poland’s strategic position and potential for growth in a post-globalization world. It examines the complexities of supply chains, energy dependencies, and the future of industrial and agricultural production in Europe. The video concludes with insights into the shifting dynamics of American politics and economics, driven by the retirement of the Baby Boomer generation, and how this transition affects global capital and workforce trends.

Peter Zeihan is an American geopolitical analyst, author, and speaker. He analyzes data from geography, demographics, and global politics to understand economic trends and make predictions.

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