Electoral terrain shifts: Increased enthusiasm at South Africa polls as ‘more viable parties emerge’

Electoral terrain shifts: Increased enthusiasm at South Africa polls as ‘more viable parties emerge’

we can go now to Johannesburg to talk to Michael Brown a researcher at the University of the vitv Rand uh Michael it’s been said that there these could be a waterers shared election for thec How likely is that to be uh I I think it definitely will and thank you for having me um I think that it still seems and the the results are still preliminary um but I think most of the estimates were that thec would be dropping below 50% and from what we’ve seen so far I think that that remains the case and that would mean that they would have to form some kind of a coalition government with other parties if they wanted to govern um so it really is a big shift in the Electoral terrain that we’re seeing this year and uh and the the increase in turnout I think uh will probably be benefiting some of the opposition parties I think there are signs that a lot of new voters have come out and there’s there’s greater excitement about the polls I think this year compared to other years so I think that turnout we’ll see a lot of more viable parties uh be emerging after the the polls are counted and why do you think there was such a um a rise and turnout because this very much goes against uh the trend of a lot of other democracies yeah so I think um so first of all I’m actually I I am at the University in Johannesburg but I’m currently located in in Durban so particularly in the province that I’m in in Kulu Nel and I was doing some work at the polling stations yesterday um in Kulu nutel the turnout really dropped quite a bit after uh Jacob Zuma who’s from this province was removed as president so so I I think that there has been a Resurgence particularly in this province of people coming back to the polls with his newly formed enant seway or MK party so I think in this province we can kind of expect a lot of those disillusioned ANC voters to be moving to that new party which is really poised to be a big player they they might win the provincial level here in kuul Nel and they could be a very viable Coalition party so uh for the national level so I I think that this increase in uh viable parties really makes people think their vote matters more than in previous elections where it really seemed like it was a foregone conclusion that the AY would win okay and president S ramapo’s A promised change when he came into office many observers say he hasn’t delivered is that uh at the fault of him and the NC or or are there perhaps uh things outside their control yeah I mean I I think a lot of it is really outside of the control of uh of President s Raposa so for instance I mean the all of the corruption and state-owned Enterprises decaying Under The Zuma Administration uh it was kind of left to him to pick up some of those pieces because decisions as we know in politics decisions made 10 years ago uh do affect where we’re at today so I think he had a lot to deal with there’s also the increase in the price of gasoline uh and covid obviously so there was a lot they had to deal with uh but unfortunately um it from from my work on the ground voters voters blame him for that they think that uh that basically things were better I mean this is in kulun Nel but that things were better on The Zuma Administration in terms of cost of living uh there is less load shedding at the time which is when the electricity cuts out on a scheduled basis so I think even though it might not be S roposa and the current government’s fault uh they are blamed for a lot of those things that maybe make more difficult now and if the NC does lose its majority it is likely to be forced into Coalition who can we expect uh to be in that Coalition with them yeah I mean those things are uh it it is difficult to predict because uh they’re politicians so they’re keeping these things close to their vest and they do uh all of the parties MK activists I spoke to they think they’re going to win at the national level so before the election they’re all saying that they’re going to win obviously but what I see as being most likely uh and looking at what the numbers look like they might be it it does seem like the a andc could have a coalition with MK that would bring them over the 50% Mark and since the MK is only a lot of them are very recently ANC members that might be something if there’s not animosity or not too much animosity between the groups that does seem like a workable uh solution whereas the eff left quite a while ago from from it split from thec 11 years ago now so I think there would maybe be less of a uh thec would be less willing to give them a role in government whereas maybe the MK which is largely a faction of thec might just come back uh for a coalition government so there there are possibilities of the NC joining up with basically Splinter parties uh can we expect a dramatic policy shift if thec joins with either or both of those yeah so uh I think either of those parties uh we would expect to see um I guess a kind of movement towards the left in in some ways um which which is kind of I I guess the policy issues we might see uh raised would be some something like increasing uh Land Reform um both the MK and the eff talk about nationalizing industry so maybe we would see a roll back as some of the privatization that’s been happening um but I think land would be a major issue that they would look at and in general more um more State spending uh but what comes along with that and and what has been of the history of uh lares in state spending in South Africa is is that a lot of corruption comes along with that and those parties uh we might be afraid that any of those parties might be trying to take a piece of of that spending um so there is kind of the fear that corruption uh could increase if you have some of those parties as part of a coalition and Michael Bron a researcher at the the vit Vitz R thank you very much

The long queues of voters recalled South Africa’s 1994 ballot that ended white minority rule and ushered in democracy, but for many, gratitude to the ruling African National Congress (ANC) for their historic liberation is wearing thin. As South Africans cast their ballots on Wednesday in the country’s most unpredictable election in three decades of democracy, even some of those proud of Nelson Mandela’s legacy party for the struggle against apartheid were losing patience with economic and social problems it has since failed to fix. Many once loyal supporters of the ANC could play a significant role in determining its fortunes. Pollsters expect the ruling party to lose its parliamentary majority, forcing it into a coalition with one or more smaller parties. As South Africa begins counting the votes, with the ANC majority on the line, FRANCE 24 is joined by Dr. Michael J. Braun, Researcher, Writer, and Educator at University de Witwatersrand.

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