Putin accidentally leaves Russia open to attack | Scott Lucas

Putin accidentally leaves Russia open to attack | Scott Lucas

this is a Counterattack this is actually in fact defending ourselves and that at least to an extent uh because the Americans are still moving step by step it at least opened up uh thanks to Secretary of State Anthony lincol the the authority to hit certain Russian positions uh close to the border and Putin knows that now and because Putin realizes that indeed the har of offensive may be in a bit of trouble but beyond that uh he may have opened up Russia to attacks in the longer run now he’s got to scramble to try to deter the West in some other way with some of the broad sweeping state so the latest 225 million uh dollars of usaid is being drawn from this overall authorization this breakthrough authorization we had of almost 61 billion in April now there have been several packages since then this one specifically has got uh components for high Mars rocket systems and I’ll explain why those are important in just a second it’s got anti-tank missiles it’s got ammunition it’s got other equipment it does not have in this particular package the long range missiles what are called the atcm missiles which have been the focus of a lot of attention in terms of can they be used on strikes inside Russia but the high Mars rocket systems which the US has been providing to to Ukraine probably since 2023 uh they they have been used already uh since the US relaxed its restrictions on strikes inside Russia and of course they have a more limited range so they were used closer to the Border they were used on uh Russian missile batteries so it it has certainly a cumulative effect this military aid which is going in in terms of what’s happening on the front line and Beyond but this also had a symbolic effect because of course this announcement was made uh when President Joe Biden was in Normandy when of course Vladimir zalinsky the Ukrainian president was also there when Biden gave a couple of very high-profile speeches talking about how America will not leave Ukraine will not let it down where he apologized for that six and a half month blockade by trumpist and some Republicans on Aid you know in other words giving this whole idea yes the US is in it for the long run and that was reinforced again as he announces this military package when he has his State visit in Paris uh because of course manual the French president has also been ramping up both the French aid to Ukraine and also the statements about what might possibly be done in the forthcoming months I think not just for macron but for a number of leaders in Europe and I think you can count the Germans in the camp who of course was Anglo americ at one point now it’s Olaf Schulz that uh they were looking to give Vladimir Putin an offramp a diplomatic offramp not to proceed with the invasion and for those who can think back that far you know back closing in at the end of 2021 at the very start of 2022 when macron did meet hon in Moscow the whole idea was look we will negotiate with the Russians in terms of guarantees for their security as well as security for Ukraine and on February 24th 2022 puts and scrapped all of that with a full military Invasion I think there was a few more weeks when uh macron and European leaders thought maybe Putin would pull back especially after the Russians were defeated in Northern Ukraine and were forced to withdraw from there but of course he didn’t and and at some point you know you come to that realization that Putin does not want to negotiate despite all the the blah blah blah from the Kremlin which says oh yes you know we’ll talk peace they don’t they want to conquer Ukraine and uh macron was converted by that and as indeed to an extent not yet fully but to an extent the Germans were as well so I think not just macron but um other leaders indeed are European consensus except for an outlier like Victor Orban in Hungary who is an ally of Putin you know that European consensus is look in terms of economic aid financial aid military aid in terms of protecting ourselves not only with military preparations but with cyber security information security we’ve got to be prepared for a marathon rather than a Sprint yeah I in other words you have this linkage of the past and the present at a very very poignant moment and you know we’re talking about the 80th anniversary I think the oldest Survivor um from dday is 107 and of course the youngest one would be in you know late 90s you know they they will probably not be around for the 90th anniversary and so uh for Joe Biden for Emanuel maon for Vladimir zalinski there was that and because Ukraine of course was involved in World War II as well there was that look back but linking it to where we are now and the the speeches by Biden and mount CW and indeed by zilinski where they do talk about the world did unite against Adolf Hitler did unite against Nazi Germany and then saying you know we have to decide whether we’re going to unite against a threat which is in 2024 is very very pointed um I’m not saying there’ll be World War III here despite lar Putin’s chess thumping you know nuclear weapons I’ll give weapons to other countries to attack all of which he said in the past last week but I do think the fact that this isn’t just a question of of Ukraine which is uh in the front line here you’re talking about European countries all along uh the East you know from what you know from what Winston Churchill once said you know from uh from the B from the Baltic to the ad Adriatic from you know from Statin to triest you have to expect that as long as Vladimir Putin is in power uh we are in a state of of what effectively is war even if we are not directly involved in it with our own military forces being in Ukraine first I want to highlight the fact that this is another Vladimir Putin gamble which could come up to bite him in the backside um you know you know it’s always the case you know you watch something like Doctor Who and the bad guys the villains they just overreach just a bit right and then all of a sudden you know there’s a vulnerability that opens well Vladimir Putin did that in February 2022 with the outset of this thinking he could break Western support uh for Ukraine and you know because Ukraine resisted successfully because it effectively defeated the Russians in the north uh by the spring of 2022 the West didn’t back away the West did albeit belatedly at times in a limited way at times it did continue to support Ukraine uh to the point where of course uh Beyond Ukraine we’re talking about the expansion of NATO which is now stronger with Sweden and Finland in uh the possible expansion of the EU in years to come with Ukraine and Moldova now entering accession talks in the near future well in this immediate gam what did Putin do well I’m going to send my forces into the harv region in Northeast Ukraine and I’m going to grab some territory including some territory that Ukraine had regained uh in the Autumn of 2022 now because he did launch this as a crossborder attack you know it was from Russia territory because he’s got aerial attacks from Russian bases because the ground troops are coming across the border he then presented uh zalinsky with the argument to make to the US to make to Britain to make to France which is you know you’ve got to hit the Russian positions that are supporting this offensive you know this is not innocent Russians that you’re going to be hitting here this is a Counterattack this is actually in fact defending ourselves and that at least to an extent uh because the Americans are still moving step by step it at least opened up uh thanks to Secretary of State Anthony Lincoln the the authority to hit certain Russian positions uh close to the border and Putin knows that now and because Putin realizes that indeed the har offensive may be in a bit of trouble but beyond that uh he may have opened up Russia to attacks in the longer run now he’s got to scramble to try to deter the West in some other way with some other broad sweeping state it depends on you know the Persistence of the attacks at one point um earlier this year 14% of Russian oil output was affected by this and that’s not ins significant of course given that Russia is one of the world’s largest oil producers now of course the Russians have made repairs uh but Ukraine has hit uh some oil installation since then so at least has been disruptive to the Russians now I don’t think it’s going to break the Russian economy especially because Russia’s economy is on a wartime footing but it does increase the cost uh to the Kremlin of maintaining that wartime economy uh not only do you have to keep devoting a lot of your resources to the military rather than to Folks at home uh you then actually have to expend some of your resources to make these repairs to to try to reconstruct if if the Americans relax the restriction on the use of the ATM CMS missiles which have a range of up to 300 kmers if the Brits and sorry if Britain and France release restrictions on the Storm Shadow and Scout missiles and if Ukraine continues to be able to improve its drones which have now struck up to 12200 kilometers inside Russia that poses again Marathon not a Sprint that poses a longer term problem for the Russians well I suspect the Ukrainian delegation like the rest of us is trying to figure out who in the world advis Ry at to walk out of one of the last major D-Day ceremonies you know with the survivors who are left to come back to do an interview at that particular moment with a British television Outlet in the election why couldn’t you you you know why can you waited 24 hours and I’m not sure anyone has the answer to that question yet and certainly zilinsky doesn’t but I think this is probably priced in um you know we never like to predict the outcome of Elections but I think you pretty much much knew that uh rishy sunak was a prime minister on his way out uh it’s just going to happen on July the 4th now rather than in the Autumn and I think the importance for Ukraine is not to try to you know think what are we going to do with with Mr sunak um it’s is to think all right what are the links that we have with the British institutions what are our links with the ministry of Defense what are our links with the foreign office here what are our links with the treasury let’s maintain you know the working relationship with those institutions because of course the staff in those institutions do not change with an election they are there and you need that competence to continue and I have to say that the one thing beyond what has been a horrible horrible at least eight years in British politics with all these self-inflicted wounds is that the ministry of Defense has tended to operate Beyond party um I think it was true for example when Ben Wallace was there at the outset of of Ukraine I think it’s still true that the ministry of defense is approaches we’ve got a job to do uh we’ve got a job to do in partnership with others including with European Partners post brexit um and this is what we’re going to do um I think it’s actually been a a small glimmer uh in terms of the you know of what the UK can do when you don’t have these bun fights of ideology and emotion that get in the way of doing what is best for us in the UK and also for those in Ukraine

“Putin realises that indeed the Kharkiv offensive may be in a bit of trouble.”

Putin may have opened up Russia to attacks in the long run as Biden announces military aid package to Ukraine, Professor Scott Lucas tells Times Radio.

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