Russia-Ukraine: Is it time for US, Putin to negotiate an end to the war? | LiveNOW from FOX

Russia-Ukraine: Is it time for US, Putin to negotiate an end to the war? | LiveNOW from FOX

welcome back in the live now from Fox I’m Austin Westfall let’s get the latest on the G7 Summit we did hear from President Biden earlier today he spoke on the Russia Ukraine war let’s watch we’re not backing down in fact we’re standing together against this illegal aggression President Biden along with European leaders announced a $50 billion loan for Ukraine to help in its fight against Russia Biden and Ukrainian President zalinski also signed a separate 10-year agreement aimed at committing us aid for Ukraine even though a future president could back out collectively this is a powerful set of actions and will create a stronger foundation for Ukraine success leaders say the loan for Ukraine will be financed by interests from Frozen Russian assets mostly held in Europe it is a strong signal that uh we are sending to Ukraine that we will support Ukraine in its fight for freedom for as long as it takes it is also a strong signal to Putin that Putin cannot Outlast us the announcement comes at a time when Russian troops seem to have the upper hand this is an agreement on steps to guarantee sustainable peace and therefore it benefits everyone in the world because the Russian war against Ukraine is a real real Global threat President Biden has said that Ukraine will join nato in the future but officials did not announce any progress Thursday other than NATO’s continuing support this Coalition remains steadfast and strong and the contact group remains determined to meet Ukraine’s urgent capability needs this year Congress approved around $60 billion doll in Ukraine Aid President Biden says he’d like to see lawmakers provide even more long-term funding in New York Connor Hansen Fox News all right thank you Conor for that piece we have a lot more that we want to discuss about the situation obviously there will be much more discussion taking place over the next few days as the G7 continues I do want to speak with rapael piliero he’s a researcher at Harvard Kennedy schools belfer Center and he helped publish a new paper arguing that the United States and its allies must prepare for negotiations with Russia to end the war in Ukraine Rafael good to see you today thanks for joining us thanks Austin pleasure to be here all right so obviously the idea of negotiating with Russia would raise the eyebrows of Americans why does it feel after over two years of war that this is something that’s worth writing a paper about right well thanks Austin the idea is that both sides are realizing that military force alone will not achieve their objectives so for Russia you know realizing that the Western world is not going to capitulate and I think today’s news is a great reminder that we’re stepping up to the plate we’re not backing down so that Ukraine will not just give in but at the same time that military force alone for the ukrainians probably is not going to liberate all of their territory so so negotiations may not begin today we think they probably will not begin until after the election the American election but at the same time when both parties realize that military force alone cannot accomplish their objectives that’s where diplomacy uh steps in and our paper looks at historical analoges or other cases that where there was a staling on the battlefield and both sides realized negotiations were more likely to achieve their objectives so as you mentioned the paper surveys the history of War termination beginning with World War II I’m curious what does history tell us about what needs to happen in order to bring this thing to an end well the first thing is a realization that military force alone is unlikely to really accomplish one’s goals so we point to several examples one that I’ll just draw upon is the the Korean war that there were major swings in Battlefield momentum of course you know starting out with the US and the or the UN forces being pushed down the peninsula retaking a lot of it moving back up and then eventually this was stalemated you know uh just over a year into that into that conflict and by 195 three the parties had realized this is really not going to uh yield much more progress on the battlefield so the first I would say is a realization that Force alone won’t accomplish it and also just that the costs of War becoming unacceptably high so in the case of both Russia and Ukraine of course tremendous costs in terms of human capital you know Ukraine Russia have both lost scores of people and at some point they may realize the cost of this are too too high so exhaustion can also set in so I would say those two conditions are what most likely will result in termination via negotiation how heavy of a lift would it be to get all of the major players involved in some sort of negotiation I’m talking of course Ukraine and Russia we we’ve mentioned the US piece to this as well but also there’s a China piece as well there there’s a lot of actors at play here if you want we can take them one at a time but how much of a heavy lift are we talking here to get us China Ukraine Russia all to work to some sort of negotiating even talk yeah no absolutely Austin it’s it’s a real ch and what I would say is that so in our paper we sort of survey the different interests at play and each of these interests are discreet but you can construct a piece that deals with these overlapping interests so there’s been reporting recently that actually back in March 2022 so one month into the war Ukraine and Russia did sit down at the negotiating table that actually start to iron out what a possible piece could look like and there were ways to try to reconcile those conflicting interests right so for Ukraine that meant dealing with one of the main Russian irritants which was the ECT of NATO membership for for Russia it meant acknowledging that Ukraine was going to be more Western aligned uh that there would be probably continuing aid for military aid from the Western World and there may at some point be you know a session say to the European Union so there is going to be a compromise and a push and pull and then the Russia or excuse me the China and the US pieace that’s a separate part I’m happy to elaborate on that as well but certainly there is work that can be done to reconcile these ostensibly uh Divergent interests yeah I mean the question that some people might have before we get more into China why is China even worth discussing in this they’re an ally of Russia correct right but that actually gives them a unique role so we actually look at a number of cases that involve Russia or excuse me China in a peacemaking uh capacity so China is what is sustaining Russia’s War you know so recently deputy secretary of state Kirk Campbell said they’ve backed Russia to the hilt doing everything short of providing them weapons and that’s essentially right that Russia would not be able to continue to wage this war without Chinese support dual use Technologies economic support uh purchasing it you know Cut Rate prices their oil but China is not thrilled with many aspects of this war either of course they won’t EV back Russia Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping are incredibly close closely aligned but at the same time when Russia is going around bandying nuclear threats for example that’s something that creates unrest in in China’s backyard that’s something they probably don’t want happening they’re interested in in stability too so there are certain aspects where our interest may be aligned if this war is really spinning out control where the Chinese may decide let’s let’s work to wind this thing down on favorable favorable enough terms at least does it feel like China is as important to Russia as the US is as important to Ukraine in this fight I would say different so China has obviously not backed Russia to the same extent that the US has backed Ukraine right China is not providing lethal Aid they are doing essentially everything short of that providing economic support dual use technologies that are helping Russia reconstitute and keep up its defense industrial base but they’re not providing munition in the same way the United States is Ukraine is incredibly reliant on the Western World of course and I would say that Russia is similarly reliant on China’s support to wage this war but the nature of that support is different much less overt than what the US is doing for Ukraine so I would say on balance no but not to downplay the extent of China support for Russia the paper says that major Battlefield swings appear unlikely moving forward why why is that it’s because both sides have increasingly dug in and this is inherently a defense dominant War initially when Russia was caught off guard in Fall 2022 when there were major advances and KV Kiron there that was a swing but Russia since then has dug in they talk about the survin line or named after the the Russian general who really told the the Russians dig in and the counter offensive in summer of 2023 was not successful Russia was able to roll back essentially all of those gains just the last few months they’ve taken more than the ukrainians did in their entire counter offensive this war is looking increasingly defense dominant and that the current line of control probably is going to be the approximation of where things end up which is why we’re more pessimistic about the prospect of any side achieving major swings if you wanted anybody to take one thing away from this new paper what would that be it’s that both sides but Ukraine in particular we’re speaking to the Ukraine Ians and the Americans should seize good opportunities when they come along and a good opportunity is not going to be a perfect opportunity but it’s going to be one that protects Ukrainian sovereignty so too many people think about this as a dichotomy object defeat by the Russians or outright Victory by the ukrainians and ending realistically is going to be somewhere in between and that in between point should be one that offers Ukraine the best chance of protecting their sovereignty maybe not all of their territory back but their sovereignty and that creates a strong confident prosperous Ukraine that fend off a future Russian assault and that creates a piece that both sides can be invested in and not motivated to try and change at the G7 today and we watched this in the piece before we brought you in here uh leaders of the group of the seven major democracies agreed to provide $50 billion of loans for Ukraine using interest from Russian Sovereign assets that have been frozen after Russia invaded its neighbor in 2022 in your opinion is this money just enough to keep this war at a stalemate nothing more I think that this coupled with the aid package that the US passed recently is proof that the Western world is stepping up to the plate Vladimir Putin’s theory of the case has been that the Western World will go wobbly and will abandon Ukraine and that has not been the case and I think it’s good that we’re proving that the Western World will keep stepping up I don’t think that it’s enough for Ukraine to outright win and our whole position has been that neither side is going to be able to win an outright Victory here so this keeps Ukraine in the fight but we need to start thinking what comes next and that will likely be at the negotiating table instead of on the battlefield before we wrap here what bell weathers are you going to be watching for in the coming weeks months that are that are going to give you some sort of indicators as to where this thing is actually headed in the long term sure one on Ukraine will be uh the fight in KV that obviously was a surprise to many people and the ukrainians themselves seem to have been caught off guard there’s been a lot of movement there it seems the advances have have slowed but that’ll be something to watch as one of the areas the greatest friction right now in the war but then thousands of miles away watching what’s going on in American electoral politics that you know the Russians have think they may be holding a trump card that were president Trump

The Russia-Ukraine war is top of mind for leaders at the G7 summit in Italy. President Biden and Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy showed their unity Thursday, signing a 10-year security agreement that they hailed as a milestone in relations between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Raphael Piliero, researcher at Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center, joins LiveNOW’s Austin Westfall to discuss what’s at stake at the summit and if it’s time for the U.S. and Russia President Vladimir Putin to start negotiating an end to the war in Ukraine.

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