Putin cannot win the Ukraine war without North Korean ammo | Victor Cha

Putin cannot win the Ukraine war without North Korean ammo | Victor Cha

big question is in return what Putin is willing to give North Korea besides food and fuel in order to get that ammunition he needs it to he cannot win the war in Ukraine without this ammunition so for the first time in the history of the relationship between these two countries the North Koreans have the upper hand the Russian President Vladimir Putin has landed in North Korea and is expected to meet with the country’s dictator Kim Jong-un in a sign of the two countries deepening alignment the streets of the capital Pyongyang were lined with Russian flags and posters of Putin ahead of his arrival his first to the country since 2000 this week’s visit is a rare overseas trip for Putin since he launched the invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and a key moment for Kim who has not hosted another world leader since the covid-19 pandemic Victor cha is former director for Asian Affairs at the White House National Security Council he’s a senior vice president for Asia and Korean chair at the center for strategic and international studies in Washington um good evening to you Victor hello how are you um very well really pleased you were able to join us this evening what do you think of the significance of uh the talks that are due to take place between uh these two leaders well I think they’re pretty significant um as you said this is probably Putin’s closest Ally in the war on Ukraine in the sense that North Korea was one of the first to recognize Russian gains in eastern Ukraine uh they’ve uh Gone against every UN resolution uh condemning Putin and of course now they’re supplying critical ammunition to Putin so that he can continue this war um President Putin I mean there aren’t that many countries uh he can actually go to because um uh of the uh legal proceedings against him from the International Court um what do you think he’ll be looking for from North Korea well I think he’s looking for certainly he’s looking for more ammunition um again even if Russia is producing at full capacity uh for the war they want to prosecute in Ukraine they still will have a shortage of ammunition so they do need that from North Korea for the foreseeable future ballistic missiles as well um and the big question is in what Putin is willing to give North Korea besides food and fuel in order to get that ammunition he needs it to he cannot win the war in Ukraine without this ammunition so for the first time in the history of the relationship between these two countries the north crans have the upper hand yeah it’s fascinating this the uh Kremlin is describing the trip as a a friendly State visit um and we’re hearing there’s going to be a big parade in the Central Square a concert um and and so on with North Korea essentially rolling out the red the red carpet for the Russian leader yeah I think this is for the North Korean leader this is the you know the last time we saw him on the international stage is when he had that huge failed Summit with Donald Trump in Hanoi in 2019 and then after that he went into a three and a half year Co lockdown so this was about the best thing that could happen for the North Korean leader to be able to do their version of a you know the a state visit giving all the bells and whistles to Putin so this is very important for North Korea in terms of recovering from the embarrassment of the Trump Summit diplomacy for their domestic audience how much do we think that North Korea is really able to provide the Russians with when it comes to the military hardware that Putin wants for the war in Ukraine so according to experts that we we work with um Russian Russia produces about 250,000 rounds of ammunition a month at at full capacity yet the war that Prosecuting in Ukraine requires 10,000 rounds a day so they have clearly a deficit net deficit monthly and there’s only one country they can get that from and that is North Korea it’s also been the case that um the ukrainians have reported uh North Korean ballistic missile Parts in Ukraine after the attacks by by the Russians so North Korea is providing ballistic missiles and they’re also able to test the accuracy of their ballistic missiles by watching them work on the battlefield in Europe and because we’ve heard suggestions that actually the equipment and the ammunition which North Korea can provide is is pretty ancient stuff somewhat out of date um but in a sense if you’re looking at ballistic missiles um maybe that doesn’t matter yeah it doesn’t matter it it really doesn’t matter and their ballistic missiles are actually not as bad as some of their old ammunition the initial ammunition they gave to the Russians they’re actually pretty good ballistic missiles because they’ve sold them to Iran and Pakistan and others in terms of the ammunition the the thing to worry about is North Korea has given away all its old stocks to Russia or sold them to Russia now they can produce new and better ones which have an impact not only for Russian stockpiles and the war in Ukraine but also for the military balance on the Korean Peninsula and in East Asia more broadly um President Putin has taken um several of his senior ministers with him um how do you think this sort of visit plays back at home um for the Russians I mean I think again as you mentioned they were completely diplomatically isolated now and I think from Putin’s perspective and his people this is a very strategic move from their perspective because they are not only using the North Korea relationship to affect the battlefield in Europe Europe by what Putin potentially can give to North Korea they’re affecting the military balance on the Korean Peninsula they’re affecting broadly the security in the Indo Pacific and they’re also affecting North Korea’s ability to threaten the continental United States with intercontinental ballistic missiles yeah I mean we’ve seen um the United States very concerned about this meeting haven’t we uh yes I mean I wish they had the US had expressed more concern early year uh from the very first report of a sale of Munitions to the Vagner group when they were involved in the war um but it’s become much more apparent lately I think just because the volume is so large we’re talking now about they reported over 5 million rounds of ammunition over 10,000 shipping containers going from North Korea to Russia that are filling three munition stockpiles right on the warfront and those could you know presumably really strengthen Russia’s hands um at a time that there are real concerns about Russian gains uh especially along that Eastern front in Ukraine yes I think that’s right um uh the Russians really do need this ammunition as I mentioned earlier and it it was coming steadily at a time when you know us support for Ukraine faltered I mean eventually the supplemental pack the supplemental package was passed uh but it will take some time for that a to get there and in the meantime you know the ukrainians are suffering under all of this artillery and ballistic missile fire um you know some of which is coming from uh from North Korea so you know we we’re seeing something we have not seen before in history which is North Korean weapons being used in the battlefield that are killing Europeans and two of the of the remaining dictators the the the remaining powerful dictators uh in that part of the world uh essentially joining forces and defying Western sanctions that’s right they’re defying Western sanctions and Russia has made no secret of its desire to dismantle the entire un Security Council regime of sanctions which is which consists of 11 un Security Council resolutions all of which Russia previously had signed up to Russia is not only defying them themselves but it wants to try to dismantle those 11 Security Council resolutions sanctions as a part of the favor to North Korea for this new military partnership Victor Char uh former director for Asian Affairs at the White House National Security Council now a senior vice president for Asia and Korea at the center for strategic and International Studies um really good to speak to you this evening thank you so much for joining us e

“For the first time in the history of the relationship of these two countries, North Korea has the upper hand.”

Putin cannot win the war in Ukraine without ammunition from North Korea, says former director for Asian affairs in the White House’s National Security Council Victor Cha.

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