Russia has ‘momentum’ on their side: West’s ‘lack of pace, determination have dragged Ukraine back’

Russia has ‘momentum’ on their side: West’s ‘lack of pace, determination have dragged Ukraine back’

the war rages on in Ukraine in spite of a major International Summit at the weekend aimed at finding a pathway to peace this Monday day 845 of the war there are reports of Russian shelling of Ukraine’s pava region 12 people including children injured as the bombardment took out power supply to over 50,000 homes over the weekend while the conference was taking place in Switzerland Russian forces took a village in Ukraine’s zapia region Ukraine’s forces there held back by shortages of arms and ammunition meanwhile over uh the Northeast Ukraine border Russia’s belgorod region has been hit the governor there says at least five people were killed in Ukrainian crossborder shelling now much of this a consequence of Russia stepping up its attacks throughout May on the region of harv and on the city itself now Ukraine’s war effort the act of trying to push back the fulls scale invasion of the country launched by Vladimir Putin on February the 24th 2022 has been hampered by delays in funding and arms Supply from the West let’s hear from NATO’s Secretary General yence stoltenberg since Russia’s fullscale Invasion NATO allies have provided unprecedented levels of support this has been indispensable for ukrainians to fight back and survive as a Sovereign Nation but this winter and spring we saw serious delays and gaps in delivering bring support with consequences on the front line we cannot let this happen again at the peace Sumit in Switzerland 80 countries signed up to a recognition of Ukraine’s territorial Integrity of 1991 the year the Soviet Union collapsed and Ukraine declared independence let’s bring in NATA cesaria who’s associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute and NATA thank you very much for being with us here on France 24 we always appreciate your time interesting uh looking at the countries that didn’t uh sign up to that Accord India Indonesia Mexico Saudi Arabia South Africa Thailand the United Arab Emirates what do you make of this kind of split thank you very much for having me first of all it’s good to be back um well um it’s clear that there are some divisions um I guess the success of the Summit is that it still managed to get together over 100 delegations from the countries from different countries and the so-called Global sou was also heavily uh represented during this Summit however we see that there are clear divisions when it comes to um unanimous support to Ukraine India Mexico Saudi Arabia South Africa Thailand Indonesia United Arab Emirates attended the summit but we haven’t seen these names being represented on the as as Signature Sign signatories of this joint commun which uh was an important document that that um uh countries agreed to sign in order to express further support to Ukraine and the fundamental principles of the international law however I think the um reasons behind uh these countries decisions vary because some of these countries are the members of the bricks um some of them have very uh close trade and economic relationship with Russia and uh we have seen some official statements for example India mentions that um they believe that the peace in Ukraine requires bringing together all parties including Russia which as we know was not represented during this Summit and they had no willingness to be represented there of course uh similar reason was mentioned by Saudi Arabia for example but when it comes to South Africa the reason uh behind their um their decision to abstain from signing this uh document was completely differ they argued that um the presence of Israel was uh was in way showing some sort of double standards when it comes to commitment to International uh and respect to international law President Vladimir zinski says that talks with Russia could start tomorrow if Russia pulls out of occupied Ukrainian territory that’s really the the the the Crux of the matter isn’t it because we we’re in a situation where one side wants one thing the other side wants another thing and the two have well no Common Ground except that ground that they are fighting over absolutely and I think the main reason why the summit cannot be a success or any discussions when it comes to Bringing peace to Ukraine is uh Russia of course that has uh started the war in the first place and we have seen even prior to the beginning of the summit Putin mentioned that he has no willingness to accept any sort of deal unless Ukraine cap cap unless it involves Ukrainian capitulation which of course is a No Deal and no country would ever agree on these terms that Russia presents as as a potential solution to this conflict so uh the main reason is of course Vladimir Putin’s aspirations and aims to uh to to basically destroy Ukraine and of course it’s very important to uh bring um as many countries as possible together and I think the main reason why uh zalinski was so uh so optimistic about this Summit was uh to show vast majority of vast majority of countries backing Ukraine and putting pressure on Russia but uh I don’t see it as a uh as an immediate solution to uh the war when Putin is still very much committed to destroying Ukraine through military force and that is extremely clear and has been clear since February the 24th of 2022 uh NATA Putin commenting over the weekend uh that his terms for peace um would be that ke has to seed more land uh Ukrainian troops must Retreat further and do has to drop its NATO membership Ambitions again another sign that there is just too big a gap between these two sides absolutely this is just a reiteration of this so-called denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine which was uh which Putin has been arguing for more than two and a half years and proposing as a potential solution for stopping Russians further invading Ukrainian territory and um this is of course this this cannot be accepted by president zalinski or by any leader who wants its country to be to remain Sovereign and uh and uh to to to to to remain Sovereign and independent because this fundamentally uh violates the international law and of course uh there is no if Putin emerges out of this um two and a half years of war effort Victorious then of course the main question is uh what is the limit to to to his Ambitions because I certainly do not believe that Ukraine is the end game in this case do you believe NATA that other States including States in Europe would be under threat um yes possibly uh maybe um um maybe not when it comes to NATO allies it’s not an immediate threat as much as it is for mova for example and for other countries such as Georgia Armenia that uh want to and have aspirations to be uh more aligned with the with the European Union with the West uh rather than to side with Russia and that is a real threat for these countries of course and and in in a future perspective uh NATO NATO’s um uh weakening NATO is of course one of the main aims that Putin is very much determined to accomplish is this all part of what has been referred to as Putin’s kind of Empire Building obviously the the collapse of the Soviet Union from 889 to 1991 led to the breakup of the Soviet Union as Putin knew it uh he’s I think he stated that there are various lands that really are Russian lands he wants to take them back is this essentially what he’s trying to do trying to reconstruct the Soviet Union well yes in a way yes um and we have seen a couple of days ago when President Med former president medv um posted this map of Russia that included Ukraine a full territory of Ukraine is being Russian this is very much in line with Russian vision and it does not only in include Ukraine they believes that the post the so-called post-soviet states are still uh Russia still has and should have leverage on on these states and should have a say when it comes to uh the these countries determination to to whether they want to be um whether they want to side with Russia or uh with the European Union for example and they certain certainly believes that uh they the the choice is clear because Russia has and should have influence within this region and uh I think that is basically uh Putin’s vision and Ukraine is definitely a crucial element to accomplishing this uh Vision indeed as you point out Ukraine mova Georgia all with that ambition of being part of the European Union um Yen Stenberg earlier speaking about the the delays in supplying weapons um Russia trying to advance as we understand it before uh Ukraine gets a delivery of F16 jets this Supply uh and the overreaching demand o of Ukraine’s military in order to carry on with this resistance of the Russian invasion this is really the existential question isn’t it how much can the West Supply how quickly can it get there well the delay has been uh extremely damaging for Ukraine’s war effort and we know that even today even though finally the decision has been made um and within the US to uh finally deliver this crucial Military Support to Ukraine still uh the lack of uh lack of uh pace and um lack of determination in certain ways have uh really dragged Ukraine back and uh this this this this is a real problem because Russia is very much willing to uh put as much effort as as it takes to advance uh militarily and uh more they advance and more land they grab of course they will have uh they will be uh even when it comes to negotiations they will have a certain momentum on their side and even when it comes to convincing other countries that may not have a clear uh positioning when it comes to siding uh towards Ukraine or towards Russia that is a very crucial element because some countries even now uh when they were making a decision whether or not to sign this commun they were looking at the situation on the ground and it is not clear unfortunately that Ukraine uh is winning the war and many would argue that Quite Contrary in the last past few months we have been seeing that Russia has been uh pushing forward uh even more stronger than than than before onthel last the uh Summit a qualified success I think we we could agree uh in switzland this weekend NATA thank you for joining us as always SC associate fell at the Royal United Services Institute thank you NATA for your analysis thank you for watching this a propo do stay with us here on France 24 [Music]

Nearly 80 countries called Sunday for the “territorial integrity” of Ukraine to be the basis for any peace agreement to end Russia’s two-year war, though some key developing nations at a Swiss conference did not join in. India, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Thailand and the United Arab Emirates — represented by foreign ministers or lower-level envoys — were among countries that did not sign the final document. An overwhelming majority of Swiss conference attendees agree that Ukraine’s territorial integrity must be the basis of any long-lasting peace, yet the way forward for diplomacy remains unclear. For in-depth analysis and a deeper perspective on the West’s efforts to unite behind Ukraine, up against Russia’s brutal military campaign, FRANCE 24’s Mark Owen is joined by Natia Seskuria, Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute and Lecturer in Russian Politics.

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