Is the risk of direct conflict between Russia & NATO increasing? | Inside Story

Is the risk of direct conflict between Russia & NATO increasing? | Inside Story

us missiles fired by Ukraine kill sunbathers including children on a beach in Crimea Moscow warns Washington it’ll respond both sides are escalating weapons and Targets in the Ukraine war so is there a greater danger of direct conflict between Russia and NATO this is Inside Story [Music] hello and welcome to the show I’m Sami zadan Furious reaction from Moscow to the latest attack by Ukraine on Russian held Crimea American made attack’s weapons fired by Ukrainian forces were intercepted by Russian defenses but the debris killed civilians on a beach including children Russia summoned the US ambassador and is vowing to retaliate thousands of attacks have been carried out in more than two years of war between Ukraine and Russia the consequences have been devastating for civilians all around both sides have been using the most advanced Weaponry available in the war so how has military technology evolved during the conflict what’s the risk of outright war between Russia and the West we’ll be discussing this with our guests shortly but first this report from Laura Khan a moment to grieve in sasto with flowers laid at a makeshift memorial for victims of Ukrainian missile attack this was the moment on Sunday when a trip to the beach for Holiday makers turned into a terrifying ordeal debris from high Precision guided missiles raining down on the sand in crimeia scattering those who’ come for fun and relaxation and not all reached safety several people including children were killed and many others were wounded the tutor from our kindergarten has suffered we were on the beach when all of this happened it is an unbearable pain Moscow summoned the US ambassador over what it called a barbaric attack saying it provided Ukraine the technology guidance and training Ukraine launched five us supplied attack Mass missiles armed with ammunitions all flight missions were introduced by the US experts based on the US satellite intelligence the US says it’s no secret it provides the weapons but it’s up to Ukraine how it uses them we provide weapons to Ukraine so it can defend its Sovereign territory against armed aggression uh that includes in Crimea which of course is part of Ukraine and Russia could stop this war today the US began supplying Ukraine with short range attack and missiles last year two months ago it started to supply longer range versions which can hit targets up to 300 km but analysts say the US is also supporting Russia in other ways since the very start of this war the United States and a number of Allied countries have been saying that they will continue to Supply Military Intelligence photo reconnaissance satellite uh IM y to the Ukrainian Armed Forces Russia is also relying more heavily on Advanced weapons Ukraine says Moscow has been using Hypersonic missiles in major cities including the capital Kiev this includes the zeron Hypersonic missile which experts say travels at nine times the speed of sound and is nearly impossible to shoot down President Vladimir Putin has disclosed Russian forces have used these and other Hypersonic missiles against military infrastructure Russia has declared it will retaliate against the S stopple Beach attack with the West handing Ukraine more advanced weapons and Moscow also admitting to using them many are concerned the war that’s gone on for more than 2 years may now be entering a new and more dangerous phase noran for Inside Story Al jazer well let’s bring in our guests now we have joining us from Ukraine in Odessa Hannah shelist she’s director of the security studies program at Ukrainian prism that’s a foreign policy and security think tank from Moscow pavl falgenhauer an independent Russian defense analyst and in bath in the United Kingdom Patrick buy he’s a defense and security Analyst at the University of b and former prod army officer warm welcome to you all if I could start with Hannah how significant is it Hannah that we are now seeing Ukraine use longer range attack and missiles in this war first of all I would like to respond to some of the comments made in the initial video because it’s been quite a manipulation we don’t have the proof that the debriefs are from the Ukrainian shoot missiles there are plenty of videos um demonstrated in the Russian social networks that there being Russian air defense that work inappropriately not speaking that there were no air rates so people were not even notified considering that they’re at the beach which is just directly near the military base and that’s been very well known and creman people are very um annoyed now with the local authorities that they allowed such situation and let me jump in there though and say we we have seen comments from Ukrainian officials like advisor Miko padak calling civilians in this Crimea attack quote civilian occupiers it does sound like the ukrainians recognize that there were civilian casualties if not a justification for it no uh I don’t know how you translate Mr podok that’s why I will not command but the Ukrainian statements being very clear that Russia made crania and militarized with the bases almost in each Village and closed most of the beaches for the last 10 years and that is the very well known because they made all this notification you can see the photos from you have Pia Beach full of the shooting ranges and prepared stations the rudder system standing just on the beaches they were presenting that Crimea is so much militarized so the factor if you are militarizing the recreational zones you understand that you’re uh bringing the military Target just very close to the civilians that’s why uh that is quite a serious question that if the missile is going against the military object in case your air defense is working inappropriately uh that is the gising of the lives of the civilians and definitely unfortunately we have the civilian palities but just few weeks ago we had absolutely the same situation in my city of Odessa when the cluster missile uh cluster amunition missile from Russia uh also fall at the Beach recreational idea with dozens people uh killed and wounded but nobody called it as the escalation or something like this and if to return back about the longer uh I would not say that suddenly we receiv received something different from what we had because Ukraine already per year are using Storm Shadow missiles from the United Kingdom with 250 kilometers range we used Nune missiles against crer that is Ukrainian made with the 280 kilm and now even longer than new modification that was used few weeks ago against noes so the attacks the previous modification we had was 160 and that was possible only for crania now we have a little bit of 300 kilometers so you understand from 250 280 300 it’s not that much significant change to the let me jump in and bring in Patrick Moscow has a very clear line on this saying the US was involved in the use of attacks these attack missiles which were used in this attack Patrick my question is does the use of these long range attacks systems necessarily mean that there was a certain level of us involvement hi Sammy uh I think you know what this is of course given the nature of the conflict and the fact that Ukraine is reliant on predominantly Western but not entirely western or us Aid uh military aid of course there’s some element there of of uh uh involvement um that’s just the way it goes but as a secretary um the the spokesman there I think it was from the secretary the the Department of State said uh they give Ukraine these weapons it’s up to Ukraine how they the targets they choose um of course there’s some intelligence and uh information support going on uh there’s clearly instructions about how to use the weapons um the actual interesting thing about this is if this is and again like Hannah said a question mark over number of casualties exact nature of what happened but let’s just take the Russian um uh explanation of face value for a moment and say that these cluster Munitions were shut down well the reason the US has been giving Ukraine the cluster version of the attacks is because uh they don’t want to give them a high explosive variant which is much more destructive and actually depending on the target uh much better uh at hitting hardened uh hardened targets and single um single targets so like if you’re just going for one air defense system rather than a a load of aircraft on a runway for example and so conversely one of the actual things that may come out of this could be that the US decides that you know we need to give them both kinds of missile because hence an intercepted cluster munition won’t cause the same sort of Civilian casualties pavl is it really that significant listening to what our panelists are saying is it really significant that Ukraine is using the long range attacks in this conflict given that it has other missiles which have even longer ranges or is it really or is part of it at least the target here a Russian space Tracking Center does that increase moscow’s suspicions of us involvement oh basically the Russian line and coming from the government coming from President Vladimir Putin directly is that this is an American war that the ukrainians are just proxies uh that everything is decided in America and that Russia is basically fighting America and its iies and the Allies are also kind of proxies and it’s all concentrating in Washington DC uh that’s no kind of Soviet uh uh line on any kind of conflict of the code war that you’re dealing with the Americans directly and uh that’s has been well it seems good uh from internal propaganda uh kind of uh Outlook uh for the third world or the global South too that Russia is not just fighting a smaller n neighboring Nation but it’s fighting the Mighty United States that many don’t like in the world so it’s a kind of win-win and basically many believe in Moscow that that’s all the Americans that they’re running the show uh so yes that’s how it is and that’s how it’s going to be it doesn’t since this is a new post the Soviet uh era is Moscow now talking about repercussions what do you think the Kremlin is considering here uh well right now I don’t know what kind of repercussions I mean the uh there’s not that much Russia is going to do it’s not going to attack American servicemen or American territory on its own I mean we’re not at that stage whatsoever uh an intercept of an American drone over the Black Sea well maybe if it’s a drone an an intercept of an American spy plane or a British spy plane uh that’s a bit less likely then it could be sending say I don’t know missiles to North Korea and saying that is response for America sending missiles to Ukraine of course that brings Russia into direct confrontation with South Korea and that’s also not a very good thing since South Korea is a major world arms producer and if they begin supplying Ukraine direct that won’t be good for Russia at all but maybe that will be used to explain why Russia is going to kind of go and Supply North Korea all right Patrick are we seeing a trend here of the more that time goes on the more we’re seeing more sophisticated Weaponry deployed by both sides uh I think yeah as Wars go on it’s a basically you’re in an innovation um competition with your adversary and you adapt or you die uh and and that just drives you s and second world war you know massive technological innovation there’s very uh potentially large things happening with digital information Technologies at the moment in AI uh we’ve seen the massive impact that drones are having on War uh you know recent reports suggesting that more soldiers are being killed Now by drones than by artillery bombardments that is if that’s proven to be correct that’s transformational so is Ukraine becoming something of a testing ground for weapons on on both sides I I think like you know the testing Grand thing Samy it’s a bit silly isn’t it you know like is it a testing look you’re going to have you want the best weapons if you’re in a fight yeah don’t you and so therefore you’re going to you want access to them and of course that that you know money war is very expensive uh and it drives into technological innovation and when you’ve got the access to these platforms you use them you know the ziron missile on Russia’s side is you know an example of this very difficult to shoot down and highly capable some of the other Russian pieces a kit which have been deemed you know almost Wonder Weapons not proving to be like that at all um I think on the other hand you know these low Tech uh drones are having a massive impact the low Tech Glide bombs that Russia is using are actually having a very big impact simply because they’re um cheap you know and useful at destroying Ukraine’s uh infrastructure energy infrastructure conversely you know some of the the Ukrainian the moral of the story there new tech doesn’t always need to be high tech new tech can be low Tech as well Hannah to what extent can new tech weapons fill the Manpower vacuum especially for Ukraine it’s not the man vacuum but let’s be honest um as Patrick said that is the competition of Innovations as well because this war is asymmetric and now producers of the weapons don’t have three five years to test something simple because they know uh in case their weapons can prove it is efficient in the battlefield in Ukraine they will have the orders they will have the production they can check is it working or not that’s why for example the uh UK producers are now giving almost anything Ukraine is asking exactly for testing it in the real conditions none of the polygons can demonstrate you the results uh as you can have in the real Battlefield and then it is the question of time because when you introduce the new type of the technology for example the new drawn it is different frequency different types of the interception so you have let’s say one month before your counterpart will understand how to intercept them it means that this one month you have the advantage compared to another side then definitely another side can crack for example them and you need to search for something new but that is now more of the general it’s not just the Manpower it’s also the question of The Producers some are just giving the old storages because it is working good so why not it should be just used and in uh on the ground you have the storages it’s cheaper than demolishing but others understand that in the beginning of the war especially with the drones there were plenty of cases when foreign countries were delivering to Ukraine something extremely sophisticated but it appeared absolutely ineffective at the battlefield so the producers needed to sit and to think from the scratch what to do why it was wrong and uh uh now each of these producers can come either to work together with UK Ian military or to test or to propose because other countries when they’re now coming at the defense Fairs around the world one of the first question they are asking have you checked it in Ukraine or have you tried it in the real uh Battlefield conditions otherwise it is like nice for the museum or for your advertisement but it is bad for your defense pavl along with a with a shift in Weaponry are we seeing perhaps a shift in Targets in tactics you know on the one hand Ukraine hitting deeper into Russian territory in recent weeks the Russians increasing their focus in their attacks on Ukraine’s energy sector well Russia’s been hitting Ukraine energy sector already for two years uh there there’s been an increase recently though wasn’t there yes there has been they’re trying to knock it out it didn’t there is Success there yes but Ukraine is still functioning not only as a state but also it’s a defense industry is also still working uh actually most of the drones that are used on the battlefield and which are specific very specific for this conflict and a novelty the mass use of cheap drones Ukraine is producing itself right now and that’s a big change of course uh in the battlefield uh Ukraine has also right now acquired what Russia had from the very beginning the capability to hit deep deep into Russian territory also mostly using self-made uh rather primitive drones but still they managed to hit precisely two up to two more than 2,000 kilometers deep into Russia and that was not with American Technology per se though there is of course American involvement in say the guidance system apparently they’re working through some kind of satellite still there most likely I would believe commercial that military use but it also should be noted that this is a very specific War it’s a war in itself and actually the lot of the tech used there is not very new at all uh Ukraine will be getting F-16 Fighters because the European nations are scrapping them they’re replacing them with new American F-35 St Fighters and those they don’t need uh they’re handing over to Ukraine the um uh attack and see Ms missiles are also America is replacing now so Ukraine is getting weapons that are several maybe decades old and they’re not really The Cutting Edge so I wouldn’t say that that that this war is going to reflect on future Wars kind kind of that the future Wars will be the same most likely they won’t right a lot of things are happening here are very important for everyone every military in the world okay let me bring Patrick in and and can we look at the target of the latest attack in Crimea a space Tracking Center as part of a pattern of escalating targets and tactics here I mean that serves us and Western interests Beyond just the conflict in Ukraine is the suggestion we’re hearing I think the conflict you know Wars tend to pull to the extremes as as Carl Von CL it’s the theorist said and um the longer they go on the long longer they pull to the extremes and so I think we’re starting to see increase vertical escalation so sorry horizontal escalation rather than vertical escalation so it’s moving across um I think and this example is potentially uh an indicator of that that that the conflict is spreading uh horizontally uh I don’t read into it much more than that though and I think that um horizontal escal is happening on both sides and it’s spreading and we’ve seen it as a result you know resulting in increasing cooperation with Russia and Iran uh Russia and North Korea and to a lesser extent but also um important China uh and we’re seeing it ver you know horizontally escalate in terms of the Ukraine as pavl just rightly said the development of their own indigenous deep strike capability against Russian in refineries um and that that horizontal ES ation is worrying but hopefully it can be contained um but yeah that’s how I’m I’m more natural progression Hannah how worrying is it I mean in the sense that the more that the targets and the Weaponry escalate the more that Russia will escalate its weaponry and targets is there a concern in Ukraine about whether UK Ukraine can really keep up in this game can I answer by questions do you you seeing that the escalation is still not at the topest level if you follow the number of the Air Raids and the air attacks that Ukraine has per day and the number of the targets and destroyed civilian infrastructure uh during per day we are not speaking about per month I don’t know what is more escalation look at the situation in hary of the second biggest city well I think the big concern Hannah would it not be nuclear weapons ultimately new for nuclear weapons became like you know that Dragon monster from the cartoons and Russians really understood that that is the topic that a lot of countries especially those who don’t have the nuclear weapons are predominantly afraid because nobody used it after the second world war and nobody knows what are the results but let’s be critical thinking if Russia will use doesn’t matter tactical because strategic uh it’s against the us but tactical uh nuclear weapons first of all uh that means that Russia totally lost with the Conventional Weapons because they understand that when they use the nuclear tactical weapons they will lose even Chinese support China can allow or this war because of their anti-American moods or because they don’t want the stronger one of the parts China can involve because of economic interest or uh selling any of the spay Parts but nuclear issue is very crucial for China and without Chinese support for Russia it will be very difficult at the international Arena previous times when Russian nuclear rhetoric went high that was exactly Beijing with all his difficulties in position uh regarding this war but in nuclear they were very strong and stried for Moscow don’t use it and don’t overuse the rhetoric otherwise North Korea otherwise Iran and others would use it as well pavl are we witnessing I think this may be what Patrick was referring to and he talked about how the the conflict is spreading horizontally are we witnessing perhaps new strategies new approaches emerging in recent weeks you know Russia sending warships to Cuba signing an alliance agreement with North Korea or just not too long ago we had the French President indicating the dispatch of Western troops to Ukraine well couldn’t be ruled out is I think the way he put it oh yes there is an escalation there’s is an escalation in wording Russia has began using very extensively the brinkmanship uh the bouncing on a brink of a nuclear conflict uh talking a a lot about that uh such tactics developed in the 50s first by the Americans the term brinkmanship was coined by John Foster Dallas then uh it’s it’s it’s a legitimate tactic uh but its results are always limited uh Russia used it before most we was coming from former president MIT medv that didn’t work at all now it’s Putin talking about about that hinting that this is possible talk about changing the Russian nuclear Doctrine but of course doctrines in Russia will they not be reused when they’re making the real decisions and actually moving from uh threats to going over the nuclear threshold into nuclear usage well that’s a enormous step and I don’t think that we are right now there at all so now it’s going to continue as it is I would say all right I think we’ve got a minute left I’m going to try and bring Patrick in very briefly so how seriously should we take whether it’s Russian statements in the parliament about altering the nuclear Doctrine protocols or what the Kremlin spokesperson Dimitri pesov just said after this attack about well he referred to the Russian president’s earlier comments this month about arming countri to strike Western countries yeah and the idea of sort of extending again uh horizontally uh the the conflict that’s more likely than than the nuclear thing at the moment of course uh I agree with pav there I think we’re thankfully a good bit away from there uh luckily there’s better Minds than me and better systems that we have at our disposable looking at Russian nuclear force Readiness and really ultimately and the Russians know this and everyone else knows it uh it is the ready of those forces and the steps that they go through which tell us whether we are close to a a serious escalation or not and luckily we as far as I’m understand we’ve never got really Beyond sort of two-thirds of the way to that of the use of strategic nuclear forces in this conflict and and the processes with which they would go through so that’s what you look for don’t listen to don’t listen to what people are saying uh unfortunately you just look at what’s ready and hopefully what we look at let’s hope the picture gets better for people and especially civilians on all of that region let’s thank our guests right now Hannah shelest Patrick buy and pavl felgenhauer and thank you too for watching you can see the show again anytime by visiting our website Al ja.com for further discussion head over to our Facebook page that’s facebook.com AJ insid story you can also join the conversation on X our handle there is at AJ inside story from me S Zan and the whole team here for now it’s goodbye [Music]

US missiles fired by Ukraine have killed sunbathers including children on a beach in Crimea.
Moscow has warned Washington it will respond.
Russia has hit many civilian targets in Ukraine during the war, where both sides are using new weapons.
So is there a greater danger of direct conflict between Russia and NATO?

Presenter:

Sami Zeidan

Guests:

Hanna Shelest – Director of the Security Studies Program at Ukrainian Prism.

Patrick Bury – Defence and Security Analyst at the University of Bath, former British Army officer.

Pavel Felgenhauer – Independent Russian defence analyst in Moscow.

Subscribe to our channel http://bit.ly/AJSubscribe
Follow us on Twitter https://twitter.com/AJEnglish
Find us on Facebook https://www.facebook.com/aljazeera
Check our website: https://www.aljazeera.com/
Check out our Instagram page: https://www.instagram.com/aljazeeraenglish/
Download AJE Mobile App: https://aje.io/AJEMobile

#Russia #Ukraine #UkraineWar #UkraineCounterOffensive #Crimea #Sevastopol #SevastopolAttack #CrimeaAttack #NATO #AlJazeeraEnglish