The Beginning Of the End? New Peace Summit, New Axis Opens – Ukraine Map Analysis & News Update

The Beginning Of the End? New Peace Summit, New Axis Opens – Ukraine Map Analysis & News Update

G Legends I hope that you’re having a fantastic day and it’s a Friday at least here in Australia and wherever you are at least you’re heading into it I hope you’re gearing up for a fantastic weekend now as per the title of this I haven’t come up with the title yet but we will talk about zelinsky’s comments about a new peace conference and what may then come of that we need to look at sort of some military theory that surrounds this as well as also I guess the reality and what could happen and what of course he has said now we talked a little bit about the energy crisis that is not only ongoing in Ukraine but also will continue to get worse into the winter and how can the EU help that how can this be helped how is Russia continuing to strike this the IC of course is involved in warrants against those who are then signing off on those bombings but we need to look at something that may not be as uh published as well about some other issues directly contributing to this of course look at the maps Ukraine has launched a couple of offensives as well and taken back some ground so we will talk at that and of course we’ll look at some footage and we’ll also look at some propaganda pieces as well but I’m guessing the title in this is something like is it all over now this clip of zalinsky has been going viral today now instead of watching this I’m going to read out what exactly has been said and what exactly could then happen due to this so a detailed action plan should be prepared to consider at Ukraine’s second peace Summit over the next few months this peace Summit will be at the end of 2024 we’re halfway we’re nearing the end of the year I know I can’t believe it also develop a new joint peace plan based on zin’s 10-point peace proposal we know number five and six is Ukraine sovereignty then the borders number one is their nuclear security but at the moment Russia occupy a portion of Ukraine and this 10-point peace plan starting there is going to be difficult for Russia to come to the table looking at what is happening then on the ground now what zalinski has said here I actually just want to bring up my next slide because I have exactly what he has said now we need to develop a detailed plan detailed steps regarding all the crisis that Putin’s War has brought to our countries we have months to come up with this plan we don’t have much time we have many wounded killed both military and civilians so we don’t want this war to last for years therefore we should prepare this plan and put it on the negotiating table at the second piece Summit so there will be some plan prepared put forward at the second piece Summit coming in the next few months but that we don’t have much time due to the amount of casualties both killed and wounded military and civilians that Ukraine has incurred over this war we’ll continue here now some countries participated were notably absent from signatures such as India Saudi Indonesia Colombia South Africa this is for then that peace Summit of course China refused to be in Russia’s absence Russia was not invited what the big tailing point of this peace Summit was and what I believe Ukraine was mainly trying to do was unite and try and get the global South onto Ukraine’s side of support they have a lot of influence over Russia Russia has a lot of influence economically politically and militarily in areas in the global South too especially then China has as much or if not more as well we’re going to talk more about the global South but what I want to speak on is the reality of this like zalinsky says here we don’t have much time we don’t want the war to last for years now if this is going to be something of Peace at the end of this year we don’t want it to go on for years I think that could actually be detrimental to what Ukraine’s tactic should or may actually be as well as it’s going to have to take into account as Putin has said here must be based on reality the reality on the ground now is why would Putin withdraw from these territories not militarily what at the end of the day negotiation means negotiation and at this point in time why would Putin withdraw from these it needs to like you know if we’re doing this and it needs to be by the end of the year or whatever that is something that people have to take into consideration and ask yourself this why right now would Putin withdraw from these areas of which in in most fronts they currently hold the initiative they have the shells and the men as well in overmatch at least numerically so that’s that’s the question to be asked and that needs to be based in what comes of these and that’s why people say if it’s based on the 10-point pece plan it falls over at number five and six why would Russia continue on the table but zalinsky also says in this there’s something I want to touch on before we talk with global South we don’t want this war to last for years now this is in my eyes exactly how Ukraine could actually be victorious or win this War I don’t think right now I will say I don’t think militarily there’s going to be any massive victory for a long time and any victories here whether it’s Russia pushing to hariv or if um Ukraine pushes to meop mopo sasap I think the military cost that would incur with the defensive works both sides had have could be absolutely a pic Victory but regardless I think time is what Ukraine need to play to look at and we’re going to talk about some military Theory here this is exactly how say the afghanis won over both the Soviets and the Coalition it is your home you can wait them out what you’re trying to do is make this war so expensive that the other side can’t maintain the funding or public support and this should maybe have always been the plan do you think that the the t- man in in Afghan beat the SAS in a single gun battle no did they Outlast them yes my favorite like quote from a member of the taban was you have the Watchers but we have the time and again and again throughout military history this has shown to work against the larger power because the larger power has so much more Logistics to then have and by the end of the year Ukraine is not going to be in the place for a new counter offensive especially with strikes on Russia’s energy grids that I believe this could be then a waiting game so let’s talk about some of the military theory that that backs this up we’re going to be talking about Von colwitz and as well uh Sebastian Jer a couple of books you should read so he says um the state of pure resistance affords superiority in the contest and if this Advantage is sufficient to balance whatever superiority in numbers the adversary may have so Russia has superiority in numbers then the mere duration of the contest will suffice gradually to bring the loss of force on the part of adversary to a point which the political object can no longer be an equivalent at Point therefore he must give up the contest we see that in the class of means wearing out the enemy includes the great number of cases in which the weaker resists the stronger now this was written a long long time ago but there’s even more examples that prove this since then and even even potentially better ones now now if we want to overcome the Enemy by duration of the contest we must content ourself with as small objects as possible for it is the nature of the thing that a great end requires a greater expenditure of force than a small one a greater more expenditure of force trying to wear that out this is why in military Theory I have been and nutritional War Doctrine I’ve said with like offensives Ukrainian offensives into areas this in my mind doesn’t fit what Ukraine has been in some areas and hasn’t been in other areas on the front line now uh this negative intention which constitutes the principle of the fu defensive is also the natural means of overcoming the Enemy by the duration of combat that is of wearing him out we’ll talk a little bit more now um the pure defensive positive object is wanting and therefore while in the defensive our Force cannot at the same time be directed on other objects they can only be employed to defeat the intentions of the enemy we have to consider the opposite of the destruction of one the enemy’s Armed Force that is to say the preservation of our own so you’re preserving your own forces in the destruction of the enemies the lengthening of the war yunga talks about this as well conventional armies burn through more fuel Munitions and food the same way large Fighters burn through more oxygen even wealthy Nations can’t afford to maintain that level of effort indefinitely uh the logistical demands of modern mechanized Army is so enormous it resources going to Simply supplying itself air power also has limited value against smaller forces dug in forces and we will talk about the maybe Guerilla style militia Warfare that may take place further down the line but like we said at the end of the year Ukraine from what we’re seeing is not going to be ready to go on the offensive so the reality on the ground if there is a peace like a peace negotiations go place it’s going to have to take into account Russia’s successes over this year as well as where both countries are sitting and that Russia has not had these collapses of what many bloggers and experts had also then predicted and I believe that John mimer may have been correct when he quotes officials saying that the high water line for Ukraine was actually the end of 2022 so there’s a few things we need to take into account here and a few things that concern me so if a peace deal is signed and Ukraine do officially sacrifice some land from a talk I’ve had very recently there would be celebration and relief for a few months but he thinks after this there may be a lot of resentment from soldiers towards the government and officials after their promises and mistakes were made the losses they took and then losing that ground we may also see the millions of Ukrainian refugees who have fled Ukraine May then not return at least not return on mass because in a lot of the studies you see that it’s reliant on Ukraine achieving its initial goals at 1991 border but Russia’s going to have ongoing issues too they’ve also had huge losses huge expenditure their initial goals have failed at least depending where this lies and occupying territory like in the doctrine the or the theory we’ve just spoken about is historically very very difficult and they will have to contend with potential militia groups Uprising and existing in these areas of occupation that said this is the exact reason but in Reverse I believe that dones and Sasa pole and other areas may be hellish for Ukraine as well when you’ve got a population that may not be friendly to you uprisings resistance Guerilla militia groups can be incredibly deadly for a large Force too can be very hard to actually get that under control but the main difficulty the main failure of the last peace Summit was to get the global South on board and we can look at this map and see of course the countries that participated and signed well these are all ones of which we basically expected and you can see countries that participated and didn’t sign such as then India now let’s have a look and we talk about the global South what actually is then the global South so we can see if we line then how do I move this if we line then these two maps up that it did fail to get the majority at all of the global South on board with Ukraine’s final communication now I know there’s been a few countries trickle into this after but still to get the global South as a whole definitely hasn’t worked now why may this not have worked well I believe Israel Gaza had a hell of a lot to do with this now we’re going to look at both something from rusi and Al jazer I know Al jazer is very very biased towards it but they can give an idea of what people may be feeling it’s not entirely Ukraine’s fault they failed to secure the support of global South for its War aims at the summit the global majority’s cold trolling of the summit reflects an ongoing decline of America’s Global influence which accelerated significantly in the past eight months in the light of the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza and President Biden’s continue backing of Israel in the face of it whether Kev likes it or not anyone who is seen as America’s client state is going to be approached with a great deal of skepsis and this is what we spoke about as well even with the ICC if America won’t back the ICC against one of its allies why should other countries back the ICC against one of America’s then enemies I know people point out all this is what B ISM regardless if many many people billions of people and Powerful governments and Rising governments may see it this way it’s something we need to take into account now um the disparity in resourcing and attention paid to Ukraine or Gaza as compared to tgra for instance has left a strong and bitter sense across Africa as to the hierarchy of Western concerns and we can apply this I think to the global South similarly the apparent contrast of Western language and rhetoric between how it described the destruction of Aleppo or marol and how it’s excused Israeli operations in Gaza leave many on the continent perceiving a gap between Western rhetoric about values and values practiced by those who have for so long impos uh constraints on the policies of African states to ensure enforce sorry that based Norms in this context Russia is exploring a rich opportunity to build new relationships and in doing so set up challenges for the West so that is just an outlay of the problems that I see why the first one had so many issues and why the second one is going to be really difficult and it’s going to have to take into the realities of what is happening on the ground and if it is going to be if you like as zinsky said we don’t want it to go on for years I think that can affect Ukraine’s tactic because I think Ukraine’s ta itic best tactic is to remain pulling back wearing out Russia as well then as implying that cost massively on Russia and trying to burn themselves out rather than a pure tactical military push through the Russian economy industry military has been far more resilient to losses and uh far less susceptible to uh sanctions than initially had thought and that needs to come into all accounts of this now we spoke in the beginning that Ukraine is getting closer to EU membership as well problems in energy we know Ukraine is way down on its energy and and currently what is being imported from the EU is not going to backfill that even in summer people have power for 4 to 6 hours and the state energy providers have said into winter this going to get much worse I see people already online saying that we can’t even use our fridges but we need to talk CU this is exacerbated massively of course is caused by Russian strikes but can be exacerbated by corruption and some other issues and some people maybe should relinquish some control so we need to look at this this only came out then yesterday of the 27th that law enforcement AG of charged former department head of ukos Ukraine’s State energy owned energy provider for embezzling funds designated for bulletproof vest the vest were intended to be used by the employees of you can we know these employees have suffered their casualties they were buying them basically at Double the market cost to about a qu million dollars and of course this doesn’t help the energy provider doesn’t help morale and if it’s happening for bulletproof vests well I’d like to have a look through the rest then CU if you if you’re willing to do it to bulletproof vest of your employees trust me you’re willing to do it in many other aspects but as well I talked about this a while back but dtec is Ukraine largest private uh Energy company but that no one will finance it because of the owner is an oligarch renad ametov the international finance institution like the European Bank of reconstruction the international Finance Corporation and the DFC have a policy not to finance dtec over its ownership that bank’s office said we’re very selective about whom it works within Ukraine and that’s it it does not work with oligarchs now this guy’s probably a bloody billionaire maybe you should let up some some some of your ownership so it can actually be funded to help your countrymen as well so that’s just things exacerbating already a huge problem caused by strikes now zalinsky had this as well in the past few days Ukraine has started actual negotiations on EU membership we know this is one of the goals Ukraine has is to enter the EU and NATO something I think people look over is this may be a lot further away than some people think maybe it may be closer but I believe it’s still going to be Ukraine has a lot of things that needs to sort out before this first and foremost the war but we have seen in the leaked peace negotiation deals say in you know early in the 2022 war or the initial Invasion that Russia didn’t have a problem with Ukraine joining the EU but of course they did with NATO and we continue here rosinski says Russia’s recent offensive shows pressure on Kremlin that it’s not enough thanks to the braver of people and decisions of you our partners we stopped the Russian offensive but this new Russian offensive proved the existing pressure on Russia for the war is not enough the Fulfillment of every promise is important not only in terms of protecting lives but to destroy the Russian illusion that they will achieve something by War so saying that the pressure from Europe and the promises of weapons and some have not delivered is currently not enough that Putin is still trying to quote expand the war now Ukrainian president met with the 27 leaders of the EU in Brussels we know this is going on currently and today and this is 2 days after his country being on former membership talks uh provide Ukraine with extensive support regardless of any institutional changes so of course this will take like we said a long time what they want is promises regardless of what changes in governments within the EU that Ukraine will still have then these promises and agreements upheld zinski has told the AFP that France would continue to support Ukraine regardless of the political situation as we know the RN has then getting more power in France too but we need to look at what is exactly said the French national rally will not allow Russia to absorb Ukraine I will not let Russia imperialism would not let Russian imperialism absorb an Allied State like Ukraine support for Ukraine and avoiding an escalation with Russia so we know pledging support but they also have talked about they don’t want these longrange weapons to then fuel the war further so let’s look at a few bits of footage too we have I’ve heard different locations where this is but just for sake of footage let’s have a look this is a Ukrainian then MiG 29 firing Off 2 then 240 Hammer missiles these were said to be fired into the belgrad uh oblast so across the border into Russia but again not 100% sure exactly on this I haven’t seen like a good ja location I’ve seen a few different ones but you can see then that mig29 then turning back there say I think the MiG 29 is like historically the most beautiful fighter aircraft ever Russia have released this bit of like propaganda footage too of workmen then changing over the sign of a divar from Ukrainian into then Russian here as well as then the military hardw so you can see in the back signs of areas of which Russia has taken and then you can see signs and then the military forces then continuing to move forward within planes and helicopters so reinforcing the idea that these are Russian towns and the link between the military and civilian workers in that area that’s the goal of something like this now before we look at the maps I need to talk about this Patriot system now U this was from Financial Times the US and Israel and Ukraine ear talks Supply ke with up to eight Patriot air defense systems we’re not talking eight batteries we’re talking systems while finalized the arrangement would likely involve the highly priced Patriot system being sent from Israel to the US before being delivered to Ukraine Israel said in April that it will begin in retiring its eight Patriot batteries which date back more than 30 years and replacing them with more advanced systems but the batteries have been used in Israel’s current war with H1 and have not yet been discontinued due to concerns that tensions with Iranian back H2 militant group could erupt into full-blown War so I personally looking at this looking at the massive boiling point that is currently happening in the North of Israel South Lebanon I can’t see any of these being retired yet I think and we’ve spoken about the shortage of uh Patriot missiles could become more and more prevalent due to it that kicks off even more and then of course we may see Iran be more involved so I wouldn’t hold my breath on maybe those promises of sale now let’s have a look at the maps here’s Ukraine the center here’s the capital of ke red areas occupies its 22 purple since 2014 now there’s very few changes on this map but something I missed yesterday which I’ve seen today is this of course we’re up in the north this is chance lipy front but then we see just up here there must have been some level of Crossing I didn’t see any footage of this coming out but the 27th we see some Gray Zone push up and then the 28th The Gray Zone push back so was there some Russian advancement over the Border there then a push back like we saw up in the sui oblast a few weeks ago maybe just a operation across the border and back we’ve seen a little bit of that over both ways across the border but let’s have a look at then some areas so let’s start up in the north will come into the involved chance now this map not showing any changes in here although we know Ukrainian operations are going on in the center of V chance and we have then a w mapper update here today I will say w mapper is very conservative with any gains but he doesn’t show any of then this disconnect it’s also not the easiest to see but we’ll get a good idea of this so this is this Reservoir this is the vure river running through here and you can see both the gray Zone Ukrainian controlled and then Russia controlled here showing that Ukraine is controlling ground in the middle here so maybe there should be blue on this map of where Ukraine has pushed across the vulture and operating in here but also doesn’t show this disconnect we spoke about this disconnect then uh yesterday and said look it’s been a couple of weeks if you had 400 guys disconnected like this that’s not lasting that long at all now let’s push across just a little bit look at some of these said gains of Ukraine now of course these aren’t being shown on this map and some of them are being shown on Surak but others are then not so let’s talk about siniva so we saw just to the east of here we did see this gain by Russia over the last couple of days we see that increase in Gray Zone and it was confirmed through some other Maps so let’s just have a look here now this is saying basically in this same area that Ukraine has then had a push back so let’s just line this up the best we can so we see then this road we can see this Reservoir and this Reservoir here that Ukraine has pushed into these areas Now by this map this doesn’t show that Russia was in these areas so it’s hard to get an idea of what’s happening this is say the tree line down in here so we know Ukraine is had an operation here maybe clearing back this gray Zone but exactly we’re not exactly sure what has occurred in there itself but we will push down the line a little bit now nothing in better stove front then we come down and we see then I’ll call this the turn we did see yesterday that Ukraine made a major advancement here pushing then back the Russians and this is lined up through a couple of maps so then Noel reports has this map showing in the same general direction and same advancement as well as then suriak show this as well and by three of these maps showing it we will confirm at his situation north of dones during the last days Ukrainian Army managed to recapture numerous positions east of tne and I don’t think these maps are showing much too different in here so showing there was a Ukrainian advancement in the turny front here too now we just need to come down a little bit now there is some gated footage I won’t show you but it’s just right in here in bilka but it is in Gray Zone but we do know that some maps are showing far more red controlled Russian area around here than this map is shown we’ll come down bmot front then chiv now here is some interesting things no change shown on this map but Noel reports is showing that in this area that Ukraine has made a push back in now on the western side of this this shows this only to have been Gray Zone but into then where this road up to here just beyond shows that Ukraine has had an advancement back in on this sort of L boot shaped part here that Ukraine is pushing back but at the same time I’m seeing reports through Telegram and Twitter from Russian accounts saying that Russia is actually having a slight withdrawal from here due to how heavily barricaded in the bunkers and basements here and choosing to Shell it further to then push through land troops again and then we get footage released today of many thermobaric weapons Landing then in chass if y against buildings in here as we can see so again this is what the Russian accounts are saying that yes there’s been a slight withdrawal trying to flatten this soften it up again before ground forces push back in now whether that is true or not in this area I won’t go into that but we have seen from the guys I’ve been interviewing and talking to one of the things having problems with is Russian troops some of the better troops have actually more initiative on the ground and are able to make the decision them themselves to pull out of areas to then call in more artillery if they believe that’s not going to be successful and they were saying the the Ukrainian guys telling me this that that has been one of the biggest changes they’ve seen on the front and something that Russia’s been having success with there as well so massive thermobaric attacks there therm Barracks particularly are deadly against uh basements built up fortifications for how then they work now New York front haven’t seen much change in here we saw this open up we thought this could be something but it has seemingly stalled in here but we have seen that a Surak Map update in here today so this is just pushing down if we have a look where then the train line runs up here towards this is New York this is New York that it’s saying that Russia had an advancement in here now these again aren’t easy to see but we see where it slightly turns out or turns back that it s basically up to the gray Zone in here that Russia has had an advancement uh New York after several days of fighting the troops managed to take the first trenches and houses in the town new axess has been open towards tesque agglomeration so this will be interesting to see because we’re seeing that we’re hearing that Russia is pushing on this axis and then this axis in here so we did see then the 24th to the 25th we then see a Graz increase here so definitely being confirmed by Ukraine that there is some level of extra control in here or gray zone out of control so interesting to see what’s happening there but as well as other areas we get no further changes the second down in a row we haven’t seen on this map any Uh Russian advances anywhere on this anyway Legends have a fantastic day hope you enjoyed it sorry if the first bit was very wordy but have a great weekend and I’ll speak to you tomorrow thank you bye-bye

G’day Legends, I hope you’re doing well,
Today we talk about the Russia’s offensive and look at the war map updates.

If you’re new here thanks for coming across, I served in the Australian Infantry from 2014-2021, With specialist qualifications in Heavy Weapons/Anti-Armour, Combat First Aid, With a tour to Afghanistan as a crew commander of a Armoured Mobility Vehicle.
Upon my Return I was unexpectedly diagnosed with a Incurable and Inoperable Brain tumour that is slowly killing me. I was also awarded the Queens Order of Australia Medal (OAM) hence the post nominals after my name. Then Being medically separated from the Army I flew to Ukraine in 2022 for 6.5months and now make content full time. I really appreciate you being here Thankyou

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