Threat of independence will finally die on fourth of July – Iain MacWhirter
July 1, 2024
Threat of independence will finally die on fourth of July – Iain MacWhirter
by JohnCharitySpringMA
10 comments
If you ignore the somewhat inflammatory headline, this is an interesting argument by MacWhirter that, in essence, the moment has passed for at least a generation.
>Well, history isn’t written in advance and I believe that there was a serious threat to the continuation of the United Kingdom as a unitary state in the 2010s.
>There was genuine and enduring frustration in Scotland at governance from Westminster under Blair, and then under the Tories. There was widespread discontent at the return of austerity after 2010 which revived the anti-Englishness, I use that term advisedly, which had originally been associated with the personality and politics of that icon of nationalist angst, Margaret Thatcher. Devolution had just not delivered and Scots wanted more.
>Remember, the SNP won all but three seats in the 2015 general election — that would in times past have been regarded as a supermajority for independence. Brexit in 2016 seemed like another casus belli, as Scots voted to remain but found themselves out of Europe. Had the SNP found another insurgent leader like Alex Salmond, then history might have been different. The Scottish parliament could have become a platform for secession and Westminster might have granted the least-worst option.
In hindsight, Sturgeon’s attempt to bed the SNP down as a sensible centre-left party which appealed to the disillusioned chattering classes post-Brexit was a historic mistake. It robbed the SNP of its insurgent energy and made it complacent and lifeless as she became so scared of doing anything which might have cost her their support.
Usual pish from London , failure to admit to never mind address uniquely Scottish Issues, journalists who are paid by anti-Scottish, pro British media outlets who see the ‘threat’ mainly to their lucrative positions knowing that they would be dumped by their employer and not required in Scotland should independence occur.
It seems that SNP and Tory party successes are linked. If Conservatives look to be winning then the SNP also surge.
Ridiculous headline.
Labour has until the Holyrood elections in 2026 to show what they will do for Scotland.
If they can’t, expect the SNP to regain lost ground, and the indy movement to increase their support.
If Scotland votes Labour on the 4th that is in and of it self the death of independence in the short and medium term.
Swinney himself said an SNP victory is a mandate for a referendum. Therefore an SNP loss, especially a bad one, would be the opposite.
This could be true, if Labour manages to actually improve peoples lives and restore some form of EU membership. If labour continue to govern the same as the tories then it won’t change a thing.
Finally! It’s been settled for 10 years already.
He’s not wrong…the short term threat of it, which was already low will go away, but it doesn’t mean it’s settled.
There’ll be a new government in Westminster, so even if the SNP could claim a mandate for one, which they likely can’t, they’d just be told that “now is not the time” since they need to sort out the mess left by the previous government.
By the time the Scottish Parliament elections come around, we’ll have more idea of how the relationship between the two parliaments is going to pan out and obviously the outcome of that election will have a bearing on the likelihood of another referendum, but in reality, we’re looking at the *following* Westminster/Scottish elections before there’s a chance of one.
It’s shit, but I think the Yes side need to be honest with themselves and their supporters about the timeline, play the long game and spend the next few years regrouping, getting some fresh ideas in and making the case for it stronger.
So all the folk who want independence will just say “Aye, alright” and stop wanting it? Utter pish.
This election isn’t about the death of independence, but it *could* be *if* Labour do well by 2026. If they do a good job by 2026, then the SNP and independence is in trouble. I doubt they will do a good job, however, as they are inheriting a massive mess and have a very bland manifesto with a PM-in-waiting who hasn’t promised to change the big things that matter to people. Also, polling shows 47-53% still want independence on any given day.
Let’s come back in 2026 and discuss if independence is dead or not.
10 comments
If you ignore the somewhat inflammatory headline, this is an interesting argument by MacWhirter that, in essence, the moment has passed for at least a generation.
>Well, history isn’t written in advance and I believe that there was a serious threat to the continuation of the United Kingdom as a unitary state in the 2010s.
>There was genuine and enduring frustration in Scotland at governance from Westminster under Blair, and then under the Tories. There was widespread discontent at the return of austerity after 2010 which revived the anti-Englishness, I use that term advisedly, which had originally been associated with the personality and politics of that icon of nationalist angst, Margaret Thatcher. Devolution had just not delivered and Scots wanted more.
>Remember, the SNP won all but three seats in the 2015 general election — that would in times past have been regarded as a supermajority for independence. Brexit in 2016 seemed like another casus belli, as Scots voted to remain but found themselves out of Europe. Had the SNP found another insurgent leader like Alex Salmond, then history might have been different. The Scottish parliament could have become a platform for secession and Westminster might have granted the least-worst option.
In hindsight, Sturgeon’s attempt to bed the SNP down as a sensible centre-left party which appealed to the disillusioned chattering classes post-Brexit was a historic mistake. It robbed the SNP of its insurgent energy and made it complacent and lifeless as she became so scared of doing anything which might have cost her their support.
Usual pish from London , failure to admit to never mind address uniquely Scottish Issues, journalists who are paid by anti-Scottish, pro British media outlets who see the ‘threat’ mainly to their lucrative positions knowing that they would be dumped by their employer and not required in Scotland should independence occur.
It seems that SNP and Tory party successes are linked. If Conservatives look to be winning then the SNP also surge.
Ridiculous headline.
Labour has until the Holyrood elections in 2026 to show what they will do for Scotland.
If they can’t, expect the SNP to regain lost ground, and the indy movement to increase their support.
If Scotland votes Labour on the 4th that is in and of it self the death of independence in the short and medium term.
Swinney himself said an SNP victory is a mandate for a referendum. Therefore an SNP loss, especially a bad one, would be the opposite.
This could be true, if Labour manages to actually improve peoples lives and restore some form of EU membership. If labour continue to govern the same as the tories then it won’t change a thing.
Finally! It’s been settled for 10 years already.
He’s not wrong…the short term threat of it, which was already low will go away, but it doesn’t mean it’s settled.
There’ll be a new government in Westminster, so even if the SNP could claim a mandate for one, which they likely can’t, they’d just be told that “now is not the time” since they need to sort out the mess left by the previous government.
By the time the Scottish Parliament elections come around, we’ll have more idea of how the relationship between the two parliaments is going to pan out and obviously the outcome of that election will have a bearing on the likelihood of another referendum, but in reality, we’re looking at the *following* Westminster/Scottish elections before there’s a chance of one.
It’s shit, but I think the Yes side need to be honest with themselves and their supporters about the timeline, play the long game and spend the next few years regrouping, getting some fresh ideas in and making the case for it stronger.
So all the folk who want independence will just say “Aye, alright” and stop wanting it? Utter pish.
This election isn’t about the death of independence, but it *could* be *if* Labour do well by 2026. If they do a good job by 2026, then the SNP and independence is in trouble. I doubt they will do a good job, however, as they are inheriting a massive mess and have a very bland manifesto with a PM-in-waiting who hasn’t promised to change the big things that matter to people. Also, polling shows 47-53% still want independence on any given day.
Let’s come back in 2026 and discuss if independence is dead or not.