The *only* potential advantage China would gain by forcing an end to the war would be to portray itself as a “pacemaker” in order to get the West to let it’s guard down while it’s continues to prepare to take Taiwan.
I wouldn’t put it past them to think about it–they play the *long* game, and historically have had no problem smiling and getting all buddy buddy with the West while robbing them blind and getting ready to stab them in the back
That said, in the absence of Western sanctions, China is unlikely to do anything to stop the war. China and Russia have had wars in the modern period, have disputed territories and reciprocal ethnic enclaves, and likely still have nukes pointed at each other. This “friendship” is one of necessity by Russia, and a tremendous opportunity for China–they get trade goods (especially energy) at criminally exploitative low prices from Russia, *and* gets to keep the Russian military weakened and distracted while China expands its own.
I think that the last point means that China is unlikely to provide actual military assistance in any great quantity to Russia, but unless the West forces economic pressure in excess of what they’re gaining by exploiting Russia, China is not going to be in any hurry to end this war.
They have little to no interest in that. If Russia weakens, then China can buy out more and more Russian resources and make Russia as its own vassal. If NATO weakens then they have a green light to invade Taiwan.
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The *only* potential advantage China would gain by forcing an end to the war would be to portray itself as a “pacemaker” in order to get the West to let it’s guard down while it’s continues to prepare to take Taiwan.
I wouldn’t put it past them to think about it–they play the *long* game, and historically have had no problem smiling and getting all buddy buddy with the West while robbing them blind and getting ready to stab them in the back
That said, in the absence of Western sanctions, China is unlikely to do anything to stop the war. China and Russia have had wars in the modern period, have disputed territories and reciprocal ethnic enclaves, and likely still have nukes pointed at each other. This “friendship” is one of necessity by Russia, and a tremendous opportunity for China–they get trade goods (especially energy) at criminally exploitative low prices from Russia, *and* gets to keep the Russian military weakened and distracted while China expands its own.
I think that the last point means that China is unlikely to provide actual military assistance in any great quantity to Russia, but unless the West forces economic pressure in excess of what they’re gaining by exploiting Russia, China is not going to be in any hurry to end this war.
They have little to no interest in that. If Russia weakens, then China can buy out more and more Russian resources and make Russia as its own vassal. If NATO weakens then they have a green light to invade Taiwan.