Should Democrats replace Biden? Hear what historian thinks

Should Democrats replace Biden? Hear what historian thinks

This man has correctly predicted nine of the last ten elections using his own model of 13 criter Allan LICHTMAN is the distinguished professor o at American University, and he looks at factors including incumbency, the economy and social unrest. And in April, he was leaning toward Biden winning this election. So let’s see where he stands now Allan, thanks for being here. What’s your prediction? I haven’t made a final predictio but I can tell you a lot about this election. First of all, all of these pundits and pollste and analysts that you see on all the cable channels and all of the networks have no track record in predicting elections. If they come on and they claim they know how this debate is going to affect the outcome of elections, they have no idea. It’s sports talk radio. It may be entertaining, but it has no scientific basis. So what is what is the impact, do you think Zero debates are not predictive of ou Hillary Clinton won all three. Debates still lost. John Kerry won. All the debates still lost. Barack Obama got trounced 72 to 20% in the poll. Worse than Biden and went on to That’s why we rely on the 13 key which tap into the structure of how elections really work. And they show that Democrats really only chance to win. Contrary to everything you’ve he is with Biden running. Look at the incumbency key Biden checks that off the contes He checks that off. He was on contested. It takes six keys to count out the White House. But, you know, out of the remaining 11 keys, six one half to fully f Biden doesn’t run. They lose the contest key. They lose the incumbency. And only four more keys would have to fall. I think that that’s actually kin of what I was trying to get at h is that the problem right now is that the Democratic Party is considering replacing Biden mostly because it’s unclear whether or not he actually physically can carry the rest of this campaign and put up a fight against his o So that’s that seems like a fundamentally different thing than some of the items that you have in your rubric. It’s a huge mistake. They’re not doctors. They don’t know whether Biden is physically capable of carryin a second term or not. Remember, a lot of folks are saying the sa about Ronald Reagan, who was, you know, 73 and age was very different then. And they said, you know, he’s not capable of carrying out anot He won 49 states. So this is all foolhardy nonsens The same pundits and pollsters who led us down the primrose pat and to 2016 are giving the Democrats horrible advice. This proves what I’ve been saying for years. Republicans have no principles. Democrats have no spine. Republicans are sticking with a blatant liar who lied for every one minute and 20 seconds of that debate. Donald Trump put out a line, by the way, lies stick debate performances can be overc And now the first sign of of no adversity the spineless De want to throw under the bus their own incumbent president. And my goodness. Joining me now to discuss this are two Republicans, both of whom are backing Joe Biden for president. We have Bill Kristol, director of Defending Democracy Together and editor at large of the Bulwark, and Stuart Stevens, senior adviser to the Lincoln Pr He also wrote the book, The Conspiracy to End America. Gentlemen, great to have you her Stewart I read your piece in The New Tim You said that you’re baffled by why Democrats are panicking about President Biden after that Really? Yeah. Look, I mean, this is kind of crazy to me. The question is, is Joe Biden up to being preside Don’t we have a big test? He has been president. He is president. He’s not been one of the most successful presidents of the modern era. It just seems sort of ridiculous One guy who had a bad night one and you go, okay, we’re going to wipe away all this evidence that we have of the past year. Can I just make a point that, you know, the big complaint that a lot of the overarching complaint is that Donald Trump is an authoritarian who doesn’t respect the will of the voters. Okay. I think that’s true. What does it say that millions and millions and millions of voters voted to nominate Joe Biden and now a group which is conserv Forget those voters. We’re going to decide who should be the next nominee. I mean, isn’t that exactly the definition of authoritariani Unless you think that you have new informat that you didn’t have during the nominating process and unless the debate revealed some new information. But Bill, where are you on all o You know, I think Joe Biden is a good pres We owe a debt for having treated Donald Trump for being a quite a good preside That doesn’t mean he’s owed anot The problem isn’t what he’s done over the last years or even recent months. It’s what we saw Thursday night. We can’t unsee it. It wasn’t just a bad debate. He didn’t just have a subpar deb like Obama did against Mitt Romney, which Stuart Stevens remembers v in 2012. Of course, Obama bounced back fr because people thought, you know, as Romney would have bounced bac with a subpar performance, they were both up to the job. Can we look people in the eye and say that Joe Biden is up to the job of being presid for the next four years? I’m I’m for him. I’ll vote for him against Trump because he’s not authoritarian and he and he the people around him will maintain the rule of law and so forth. But we can do better. And it’s not authoritarian that vote for Biden to choose to to release his delegates and let them choose a VP, perfectly competent vice president or governor or senator to replace Stewart. President Biden reportedly reads The New York Times. Here’s what he’s reading this mo from their editorial board. Because they think it’s better I mean, bigger, I should say, than one bad debate performance. They say, quote, To serve his co President Biden should leave the He struggled to explain what he would accomplish in a second term. He struggled to respond to Mr. Trump’s provocations. He struggled to hold Mr. Trump accountable for his lies, his failures, and his chilling plans. More than once, he struggled to make it to the end of a sentence. What do you say? You know, this reminds me of, you know what? If this was professional sports? And say, you know, Bill Belichick lost a game, do you really think that he’d be calling up Mad Dog and asking for the advice of spo what he should do? This just isn’t how politics wor The guy had a bad night. I have been in a lot of debate p I have seen people have terrible debate preps. I’ve seen bad debates. It doesn’t mean a thing if the person is out there on th if he’s out there campaigning and he’s dealing with all these world leaders. So let me get this straight. So he’s put together, I think we all would agree, an extraordinary coalition to basically help save the world in Ukraine. And these leaders are dealing wi And could you put together that if he were not up to being presi No, you couldn’t. So, look, I, I don’t understand sort of panic. I think it’s up to the Biden campaign. They’re going to do, I think, the right thing, which is just put their heads do and keep going. You can’t talk yourself out of something like this. Talk your way out of something l You just have to keep going. And, you know, if this is a presidential race, it was decided in June, It would be the first time in American history. Bill, what do you think about th Stewart and I are both sports fa and he maybe more knowledgeable. And I wrote a whole book about all this football. But, you know, Sandy Koufax was the greatest pitcher of base through, what, 61 to 62, 65 and I was a fantastic fan of his as a little young kid and he retired because he couldn keep pitching at that level. There’s nothing. So it doesn’t prove I mean, that I think is the right analogy. I mean. Stewart I think that what people saw was more than wh what people internalized watching that it didn’t feel like an off It felt like someone who was mor than they had left seen. And so I take your point that being a good debater is maybe not even relevant to being a good president. However, it what they saw that night was a lack of or a we I guess, of leadership and comma and some other things that requi that a president requires. So so I mean, how do you explain what you saw that night on Thursday night? Is it there’s something sort of about the fact that we’re talking about that Jo get out of this race and not Donald Trump? I mean, the way this debate was up, Donald Trump had free rein to just constantly lie. And how could you know if you and I were debating. And I started out by saying, I’m standing here today with a convicted criminal who has been guilty of plagiaris repeatedly in her career. And everybody knows that. And I’m the obvious choice. How would you respond? You know, you can say, well, that’s not true. I mean, that’s crazy. And then next question, I go, you know, I’m here with someone who was actually a Russian agent and everyone knows that. And, you know, it is a technique of authoritari just to spew these constant stream of lies. And it is very difficult to deal with that in any sort of cogent way, because how do you say, well, that’s crazy, that’s not true? I listen, I think that the president could have had a better night, could have dealt with it I suspect he will next time. But a guy who’s a convicted felo who brags he’s out on bail, who brags about overturning Roe and has this crazy idea that that was the majority opinion of the country. Who wants to cut taxes on billio Who says that America is a third world country A like that guy president of the United States? Well, if you believe I mean, distort if you believe it’s a it’s still a binary choice. As you know, many Democrats are saying that Joe Biden should bow out so that there is someone younger who takes his place.

Historian Allan Lichtman, who has successfully predicted past presidential election winners based on key characteristics, says that it would be a mistake for Democrats to replace President Joe Biden in the 2024 election.

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