Survation MRP: Labour 99% Certain To Win More Seats Than in 1997

12 comments

1. How can an opposition even function with so few seats?

   It’s not just the shadow cabinet but the select committees as well.

   I wonder if there will need to be some kind of coalition of opposition to effectively shadow and challenge Gov policy.

2. Probable seat count:

   – LAB 484
   – CON 64
   – LD 61
   – SNP 10
   – RFM 7
   – PC 3
   – GRN 3

   47% chance of Lib Dem’s being the opposition.

3. Labour have lost ground in the past couple of days. Normally I dont pay too much attention to small changes but its likely the “Dont Knows” will finally come off the fence and some head back to a very reluctant vote for the Tories.

   [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election#2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election#2024)

   My expectation is Labour to slightly undershoot polling. So I suspect the MRPs just wont quite pick up the late grumpy trudge back to the Tories.

   But its really not going to affect the outcome.

   My hunch is for Reform to undershoot as they have had a terrible two weeks and on polling day a few Tory loyalist types who have been telling pollsters they are in for Reform will grudgingly go Tory.

4. Nothing certain till we vote on Thursday! Go out and vote! Get the bastards out.

5. I fully expect the results to be a labour victory, but I suspect that it won’t be the landslide that is forecast. We’ve heard nothing but how terribly the tories have been doing the last few weeks which does two things…

   First is to galvanise Tory voters and push them to vote.

   Second is to lull left-of-centre voters into a ‘false’ sense of security- after all, this election is a sure thing.

6. I don’t buy it. Labour majority, Tory awful but higher than expected.

7. Shy Tories will swing the vote back a little. ~480 labour seats won’t happen, and Keir Starmer’s dreadful public debates and interviews over the last week or two are likely to swing some uncertain voters away from Labour.

8. If nothing else, this election will reignite the call to do away with FPTP, given the percentage polling reform and greens are getting and the predicted seats they will take.

   FPTP just isn’t good for democracy.

9. Currently polling has Labour averaging 40% which is what Corbyn got in 2017. 

    In fact if turnout is lower than that election then Starmer could be winning a majority with less votes that Corbyn got against Theresa May.

   That would sum up what an absolute joke the UK electoral system is

10. Looking forward to the absolutely hard stop final polls coming out tomorrow, then that’s it. The next big one will be the Thursday night exit poll at 10pm.

    The exit polls on TV have been getting pretty good in recent years.

11. Genuine fear that reform have a large impact

    This country has more idiots that we realise

    The dream would be for FaRAge to lose his seat

12. Cons going sub 100 would have been unthinkable once upon a time.

    I still doubt it honestly. 101 seats.