Dramatic SNP losses predicted in Stirling, Dundee and Fife in new poll
July 3, 2024
Dramatic SNP losses predicted in Stirling, Dundee and Fife in new poll
by Halk
2 comments
The SNP could be set for a wave of dramatic losses in Fife, Stirling and even Arbroath and Broughty Ferry, according to a new poll.
One of the last seat predictions before voting opens on Thursday suggests the nationalist could be on course to lose some of their safest seats in Scotland.
And in Stirling and Strathallan, the polls by Survation even predicts the SNP could fall into third place behind the Conservatives and Labour.
Even the most optimistic Labour insider would have said some of these predictions are in seats they didn’t expect.
If the survey of 30,000 voters is correct, the party’s recovery will be extraordinary.
You can check the projected results in the map at the foot of this article.
General Election polling place Angus Voters will head to the polls July 4. Image: DC Thomson
Among the estimated Labour wins include Arbroath and Broughty Ferry, formerly Dundee East, where the SNP won 2019 with more than 53% of the vote.
But if the results of the poll were replicated at the ballot box, Labour would secure a narrow victory.
In Dundee Central, incumbent SNP candidate Chris Law is predicted to win with a much reduced majority.
Fife also has some key SNP-Labour battlegrounds, with three seats potentially in contention for Anas Sarwar’s Scottish Labour candidates. Labour set for wins across Fife, polls predicts
Survation predict the party’s Graeme Downie will secure a win with over 40% over the vote in Dunfermline and Dollar.
Meanwhile Labour are also slated to win Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy and Glenrothes and Mid Fife.
In some good news for the SNP, the party is predicted to hold onto Perth and Kinross-shire, where veteran MP Pete Wishart is the party’s candidate, and in Angus and Perthshire Glens. Margin of error
Many of the predictions, such as the one for Arbroath and Broughty Ferry, fall within the margin of error.
And the races could be incredibly tight, with the eventual winner securing their Westminster seat with a majority of only hundreds of votes. Tories on track for worst result ever
Nationally, Sir Keir Starmer is widely expect to be returned with a large majority, with voters potentially electing up to 484 Labour MPs.
It predicted the Conservatives would win just 64 seats – the fewest since the party was founded in 1834.
The Survation analysis used the Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification (MRP) technique that estimates public opinion at a local level from large national samples.
Rishi Sunak Perth Election Pledge Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. Image: PA
Prominent Tories who would lose their seat under the model would be Commons leader Penny Mordaunt and Chancellor Jeremy Hunt.
“The Conservative Party is virtually certain to win a lower share of the vote than at any past general election,” Survation said.
I’d be VERY surprised if Stirling and Dundee went to Labour, like as surprised as if the Tories were the 4th biggest party on Friday. Some parts of Fife/The Wee County I could see going Labour though e.g. Glenrothes/Cowdenbeath/Dunfermline/possibly Alloa.
I’m also dubious over survations methods this year for polling, I’d much rather trust the last Yougov poll released today, though even then I think that is overly predicting the Labour result (e.g. it has Falkirk going to Labour, Falkirk!)
2 comments
The SNP could be set for a wave of dramatic losses in Fife, Stirling and even Arbroath and Broughty Ferry, according to a new poll.
One of the last seat predictions before voting opens on Thursday suggests the nationalist could be on course to lose some of their safest seats in Scotland.
And in Stirling and Strathallan, the polls by Survation even predicts the SNP could fall into third place behind the Conservatives and Labour.
Even the most optimistic Labour insider would have said some of these predictions are in seats they didn’t expect.
If the survey of 30,000 voters is correct, the party’s recovery will be extraordinary.
You can check the projected results in the map at the foot of this article.
General Election polling place Angus
Voters will head to the polls July 4. Image: DC Thomson
Among the estimated Labour wins include Arbroath and Broughty Ferry, formerly Dundee East, where the SNP won 2019 with more than 53% of the vote.
But if the results of the poll were replicated at the ballot box, Labour would secure a narrow victory.
In Dundee Central, incumbent SNP candidate Chris Law is predicted to win with a much reduced majority.
Fife also has some key SNP-Labour battlegrounds, with three seats potentially in contention for Anas Sarwar’s Scottish Labour candidates.
Labour set for wins across Fife, polls predicts
Survation predict the party’s Graeme Downie will secure a win with over 40% over the vote in Dunfermline and Dollar.
Meanwhile Labour are also slated to win Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy and Glenrothes and Mid Fife.
In some good news for the SNP, the party is predicted to hold onto Perth and Kinross-shire, where veteran MP Pete Wishart is the party’s candidate, and in Angus and Perthshire Glens.
Margin of error
Many of the predictions, such as the one for Arbroath and Broughty Ferry, fall within the margin of error.
And the races could be incredibly tight, with the eventual winner securing their Westminster seat with a majority of only hundreds of votes.
Tories on track for worst result ever
Nationally, Sir Keir Starmer is widely expect to be returned with a large majority, with voters potentially electing up to 484 Labour MPs.
It predicted the Conservatives would win just 64 seats – the fewest since the party was founded in 1834.
The Survation analysis used the Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification (MRP) technique that estimates public opinion at a local level from large national samples.
Rishi Sunak Perth Election Pledge
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. Image: PA
Prominent Tories who would lose their seat under the model would be Commons leader Penny Mordaunt and Chancellor Jeremy Hunt.
“The Conservative Party is virtually certain to win a lower share of the vote than at any past general election,” Survation said.
I’d be VERY surprised if Stirling and Dundee went to Labour, like as surprised as if the Tories were the 4th biggest party on Friday. Some parts of Fife/The Wee County I could see going Labour though e.g. Glenrothes/Cowdenbeath/Dunfermline/possibly Alloa.
I’m also dubious over survations methods this year for polling, I’d much rather trust the last Yougov poll released today, though even then I think that is overly predicting the Labour result (e.g. it has Falkirk going to Labour, Falkirk!)
[https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49950-final-yougov-mrp-shows-labour-on-course-for-historic-election-victory](https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49950-final-yougov-mrp-shows-labour-on-course-for-historic-election-victory)