Couldn’t agree more. It is depressing how many western sources are buying the Russian propaganda that their victory is inevitable and that Ukraine must be pressured into a ceasefire and a ‘peace agreement’. History tells us that such an agreement wit Russia would be a terrible mistake. The only permanent solution for both Ukraine and Europe is a clear, undeniable, defeat for Russia.
Ask the leader of Wagner what a ceasefire with Russia means.
Only total and complete defeat of Russia is the solution to Ukraine and Europe. Too bad many western politicians don’t see it
I found these three resources to be quite interesting.
Russia’s resource base for waging such a large-scale war in Ukraine has its limits.
And Putin knows this.
Thus all that we-could-have-peace-in-Istanbul bitching, as well as his absurd and inadequate ultimatums to Ukraine & the West that are barely consistent with Putin’s actual situation on the ground.
Moscow is investing major efforts in pushing this narrative: “Ukraine can’t win; Russia is winning, so Ukraine better sue for peace before it’s too late; this is the last chance.”
They are persistently pushing this tempting thought into the heads of Western leaders and into public opinion, including in Ukraine. Let’s go the easy way and finally “have peace.” Why won’t we?
Even Putin’s minion, Viktor Orban, who was in Kyiv today, called Zelensky to “take a break, cease fire, and move to negotiations” with Russia.
But — please come again — if Putin & Russia are winning so brilliantly and so inevitably (so that Ukraine has even collapsed within the next 30 days several times over by this time…), why would they need a ceasefire now?
Why stop now if they can take the entire Ukraine and obtain a complete victory over Ukraine?
The answer is simple, of course. RUSSIA NEEDS CEASEFIRE in Ukraine. It’s been so for many months already.
They know they can’t defeat Ukraine as long as Ukraine keeps fighting and the West keeps actively supporting it. That’s the very minimum.
Also, they are not dumb, and they see that the war is not moving toward the results they want, no matter what, despite gargantuan resources thrown in against Ukraine.
By early 2024, Russia had already spent over $200 billion on the war on Ukraine, and in 2024, the entire military spending skyrocketed by some 6% of Russia’s GDP.
Moreover, as of now, Russia has lost over 3,100 tanks, over 6,100 IFVs and APCs, over 3,300 trucks, over 1,100 artillery pieces, close to 400 MRLS, over 250 SAM, 119 aircraft, 138 helicopters, and 26 warships and submarines (per Oryx).
I don’t think that I have to say that those are astonishing losses, even by Russian standards.
Any serious observer, let alone a military commander, would have turned gray and then immediately grown bald on the spot if he had been told those would be Russian losses against Ukraine after 2.5 years in a full-scale war with no victory in sight.
They’ve been fighting a war on Ukraine as if there’s no tomorrow, lavishly burning out their gargantuan Soviet stocks scattered throughout old military depots (yes, say hello to scores of old-ass T-55s, T-62s, and T-62Ms, and other things that belong to museums).
Moreover, it is more than evident now that, even after two years, Russia’s boosted and enhanced military production sector and the de-mothballing do not keep up with such a wasteful, reckless warfighting style. Per estimates by @CITeam_en , it covers only some 20% (!) of Russia’s everyday losses in Ukraine.
And it’s been many months since Russia’s military production hit its plateau. And the seemingly bottomless stocks of old Soviet vehicles in-store available for de-mothballing is not forever.
For many months, Russia has been having problems saturating their numerous units with armored vehicles to keep offensive operations running and uphold the large scale of hostilities against Ukraine along the nearly 1,000-kilometer front line (say hello to the Russian infantry trying to storm Ukrainian lines on motorcycles, yeah).
And Russians keep trying to milk their Iranian, Belarusian, and North Korean friends dry, but their ability to sell Russian artillery shells, missiles, and drones also has its limits.
Yet — with all this giant mass of resources thrown against Ukraine and even all the troubles with Western aid seen in the previous months, even with all Ukrainian systemic issues, Russia keeps having only limited tactical gains in Ukraine.
The much-hyped Kharkiv offensive bogged down and lost momentum in Vovchansk and advanced near-border areas many weeks ago.
The painful loss of Avdiivka took place almost five months ago and was followed by Russia’s subsequent advances toward important ground lines of communications but still haven’t brought about a tipping point of this war in Russia’s strategic favor.
In other words, they NEED a break. They need a break to replenish their catastrophic losses that keep impeding Russia’s war effort against Ukraine; they need it to ramp up their military production sector and to get some time off to clear the mess in their defense ministry (which is IMHO why Putin fired very loyal but extremely ineffective and corrupt defense minister Shoigu and opted to appoint a civilian crisis manager instead).
They know they can’t win and can’t go on fighting a war at such a scale endlessly.
However abundant, even Soviet depots are not endless.
At some point around 2025, the Russian war machine will hit the bottom of what is still usable from Soviet stocks, and they will have to rely much more on Russia’s own military production, which means gradually narrowing down the scale of hostilities against Ukraine.
And, of course, kissing the idea of taking Kyiv goodbye forever.
China helping Putin out?
Maybe, but I don’t see why China would want to invite trouble with the West by doing anything more than just saving Putin’s ass from a catastrophic defeat and getting ousted as a result of an idiotic war of his own making.
Given Putin’s increasingly persistent invitations for a “ceasefire,” there need to be two things:
1. It’s vital that the Russian military keep sustaining heavy losses in Ukraine that by far overwhelm their ability to replenish them. 2. Western aid must continue to come in and expand all the time. 3. Russia mustn’t get a chance to draw in another breath that it needs so much, fix its problems, and attack again in a much better shape.
There will never be a shortage of smart asses who would gladly buy Putin’s “proposals” to get a minute of here-and-now glory of getting a “peace in our time”.
But in reality, as it always happens, false prophets of “peace at any price” will not be there with us all to suffer the consequences of tempting deals with the devil when the time comes.
These articles show up all the time and say the same obvious thing. Russia has deep but not endless pockets. It has its massive inheritance of weapons and platforms from The Soviet Union but that also isn’t endless.
Russia can’t afford what it’s doing right now. Its economy simply isn’t large enough to be able to spend the billions this war costs endlessly.
Realistically, the west can. There simply isn’t a possible way Russia will be able to out spend or produce the “western democracies + allies”
Honestly.
Just add the demographic problems to this list as well. Russia is kidnapping kids and adults for a reason.
Yes of course, but is it as limited as Ukraine’s ability to resist it given the limited help the West is prepared/able to give?
8 comments
Couldn’t agree more. It is depressing how many western sources are buying the Russian propaganda that their victory is inevitable and that Ukraine must be pressured into a ceasefire and a ‘peace agreement’. History tells us that such an agreement wit Russia would be a terrible mistake. The only permanent solution for both Ukraine and Europe is a clear, undeniable, defeat for Russia.
Ask the leader of Wagner what a ceasefire with Russia means.
Only total and complete defeat of Russia is the solution to Ukraine and Europe. Too bad many western politicians don’t see it
I found these three resources to be quite interesting.
Russia’s resource base for waging such a large-scale war in Ukraine has its limits.
And Putin knows this.
Thus all that we-could-have-peace-in-Istanbul bitching, as well as his absurd and inadequate ultimatums to Ukraine & the West that are barely consistent with Putin’s actual situation on the ground.
Moscow is investing major efforts in pushing this narrative: “Ukraine can’t win; Russia is winning, so Ukraine better sue for peace before it’s too late; this is the last chance.”
They are persistently pushing this tempting thought into the heads of Western leaders and into public opinion, including in Ukraine. Let’s go the easy way and finally “have peace.” Why won’t we?
Even Putin’s minion, Viktor Orban, who was in Kyiv today, called Zelensky to “take a break, cease fire, and move to negotiations” with Russia.
But — please come again — if Putin & Russia are winning so brilliantly and so inevitably (so that Ukraine has even collapsed within the next 30 days several times over by this time…), why would they need a ceasefire now?
Why stop now if they can take the entire Ukraine and obtain a complete victory over Ukraine?
The answer is simple, of course. RUSSIA NEEDS CEASEFIRE in Ukraine. It’s been so for many months already.
They know they can’t defeat Ukraine as long as Ukraine keeps fighting and the West keeps actively supporting it. That’s the very minimum.
Also, they are not dumb, and they see that the war is not moving toward the results they want, no matter what, despite gargantuan resources thrown in against Ukraine.
By early 2024, Russia had already spent over $200 billion on the war on Ukraine, and in 2024, the entire military spending skyrocketed by some 6% of Russia’s GDP.
Moreover, as of now, Russia has lost over 3,100 tanks, over 6,100 IFVs and APCs, over 3,300 trucks, over 1,100 artillery pieces, close to 400 MRLS, over 250 SAM, 119 aircraft, 138 helicopters, and 26 warships and submarines (per Oryx).
I don’t think that I have to say that those are astonishing losses, even by Russian standards.
Any serious observer, let alone a military commander, would have turned gray and then immediately grown bald on the spot if he had been told those would be Russian losses against Ukraine after 2.5 years in a full-scale war with no victory in sight.
They’ve been fighting a war on Ukraine as if there’s no tomorrow, lavishly burning out their gargantuan Soviet stocks scattered throughout old military depots (yes, say hello to scores of old-ass T-55s, T-62s, and T-62Ms, and other things that belong to museums).
Moreover, it is more than evident now that, even after two years, Russia’s boosted and enhanced military production sector and the de-mothballing do not keep up with such a wasteful, reckless warfighting style. Per estimates by
@CITeam_en
, it covers only some 20% (!) of Russia’s everyday losses in Ukraine.
And it’s been many months since Russia’s military production hit its plateau. And the seemingly bottomless stocks of old Soviet vehicles in-store available for de-mothballing is not forever.
For many months, Russia has been having problems saturating their numerous units with armored vehicles to keep offensive operations running and uphold the large scale of hostilities against Ukraine along the nearly 1,000-kilometer front line (say hello to the Russian infantry trying to storm Ukrainian lines on motorcycles, yeah).
And Russians keep trying to milk their Iranian, Belarusian, and North Korean friends dry, but their ability to sell Russian artillery shells, missiles, and drones also has its limits.
Yet — with all this giant mass of resources thrown against Ukraine and even all the troubles with Western aid seen in the previous months, even with all Ukrainian systemic issues, Russia keeps having only limited tactical gains in Ukraine.
The much-hyped Kharkiv offensive bogged down and lost momentum in Vovchansk and advanced near-border areas many weeks ago.
The painful loss of Avdiivka took place almost five months ago and was followed by Russia’s subsequent advances toward important ground lines of communications but still haven’t brought about a tipping point of this war in Russia’s strategic favor.
In other words, they NEED a break. They need a break to replenish their catastrophic losses that keep impeding Russia’s war effort against Ukraine; they need it to ramp up their military production sector and to get some time off to clear the mess in their defense ministry (which is IMHO why Putin fired very loyal but extremely ineffective and corrupt defense minister Shoigu and opted to appoint a civilian crisis manager instead).
They know they can’t win and can’t go on fighting a war at such a scale endlessly.
However abundant, even Soviet depots are not endless.
At some point around 2025, the Russian war machine will hit the bottom of what is still usable from Soviet stocks, and they will have to rely much more on Russia’s own military production, which means gradually narrowing down the scale of hostilities against Ukraine.
And, of course, kissing the idea of taking Kyiv goodbye forever.
China helping Putin out?
Maybe, but I don’t see why China would want to invite trouble with the West by doing anything more than just saving Putin’s ass from a catastrophic defeat and getting ousted as a result of an idiotic war of his own making.
Given Putin’s increasingly persistent invitations for a “ceasefire,” there need to be two things:
1. It’s vital that the Russian military keep sustaining heavy losses in Ukraine that by far overwhelm their ability to replenish them.
2. Western aid must continue to come in and expand all the time.
3. Russia mustn’t get a chance to draw in another breath that it needs so much, fix its problems, and attack again in a much better shape.
There will never be a shortage of smart asses who would gladly buy Putin’s “proposals” to get a minute of here-and-now glory of getting a “peace in our time”.
But in reality, as it always happens, false prophets of “peace at any price” will not be there with us all to suffer the consequences of tempting deals with the devil when the time comes.
https://x.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1808154258627309569
A ceasefire is not finishing the war. We’ve been there. It would be just a frozen conflict.” – President Zelenskyy in an interview with Bloomberg.
https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1808539369177010443
Germany will never support a ceasefire involving Ukraine’s surrender. Germans chancellor Olaf Scholz
https://x.com/Azovsouth/status/1808545777909912024
These articles show up all the time and say the same obvious thing. Russia has deep but not endless pockets. It has its massive inheritance of weapons and platforms from The Soviet Union but that also isn’t endless.
Russia can’t afford what it’s doing right now. Its economy simply isn’t large enough to be able to spend the billions this war costs endlessly.
Realistically, the west can. There simply isn’t a possible way Russia will be able to out spend or produce the “western democracies + allies”
Honestly.
Just add the demographic problems to this list as well. Russia is kidnapping kids and adults for a reason.
Yes of course, but is it as limited as Ukraine’s ability to resist it given the limited help the West is prepared/able to give?