Oh my looking almost like it’s time to call a border poll……
July 5, 2024
Oh my looking almost like it’s time to call a border poll……
by Typical-Analysis8108
38 comments
No no no, not just yet.
I want to see unionism punch itself in the face a few more times first.
10 years lads, 10 years and they’ll have nothing left to fight over.
Sinn Féin losti in East derry by 200 votes, Unionism almost banished west of the Bann
[deleted]
Should the border now collectively move up by one county?
Do the south want us?
First year I voted was 1983. Of the 17 NI Westminster seats, one went to SF & one to SDLP. The other 15 were all Unionist. Now just 8 of 18 are Unionist & one of those went to a recount. SF are in the majority at WM, the assembly & the locals.
All of which points to a border poll. The problem is that polls consistently show a strong support for the union. Unionist parties are increasingly regarded as dickheads but the union itself is still popular & until that changes significantly, a BP isn’t going to happen.
There may of course be something unexpected, like Labour deciding NI is too expensive & annoying or a major shift in NI opinion for some reason. The question is, after a disastrous brexit, the DUP being even bigger arseholes than usual, the South being really prosperous compared to the North & this place basically falling apart in terms of public services, why are so many people still supporting the union?
Unionist parties still receive more votes overall, and that’s saying something givin the absolute shit show that they are.
Unionists are more likely to vote Alliance (Lagen Vally, North Down etc.) and vote strategically, for example a good few Unionist vote SDLP in South Down in a futile attempt to keep Sinn Fein out.
Plus the low turnout (57%) is said to favor nationalists, less Unionists going to vote and who can blame them.
Somebody follows Joe Brolly on twitter….
Border should move now like in Risk
Cant we wait until we get a good exchange rate on the euro?
I don’t think the time is right just yet. I say that as someone who supports 100% reunification, but there are still swathes of nationalists (by demographic I suppose) that might not be persuaded to take the leap.
Obviously things like serious discussions on what the post reunification plan actually looks like is the best and maybe only way of getting to those people. Those discussions should happen, and I would suggest that Alliance gets involved with those (although I’m not at all sure theyll want to rock the boat too much in their new seat of Lagan Valley).
That being said, we’re largely at the whim of the Labour Party now as to the actual likelihood of a border poll, and Keir won’t do anything that can be twisted as even semi unpatriotic (let alone the ‘break up of the United Kingdom’). And NI certainly won’t get two stabs at it (despite what the GFA says about every 7 years) it’ll make sense to go for it, when the outcome is locked in.
Perhaps seeing what happens in the Irish elections will be the final decision in pushing for it however I’m of the opinion of shit or get off the pot, Unionism has never been weaker but I don’t sense an urgency for change in the constitutional position.
Yeah maybe the SF MPs will put forward a bill to Westminster…oh wait.
The Naomi Long loss hurts a bit more seeing this – could have been 9-7-2.
At least let some counties out. Everyone shouldn’t have to suffer.
Yawn
What is the change here that would indicate a border poll? Nationalism % hasn’t moved in 2 decades. Yes Unionism has taken a hit from APNI in this period, but nothing happened this election that would indicate calls for a border poll.
I would support reunification, but only if there is a clear plan of transition agreed upon before hand.
We saw what happened with Brexit, where the transition period was chaotic and unorganised. I don’t think anyone wants to go through that process again.
A citizens assembly for instance in the south, would be great.
Overall though, a border poll isn’t gonna happen in the next 10 years, but it will happen within the 10 years after that
Having read Feeneys article I can see as a southerner that there is a sense for Northen nationalists that 2030 border poll is gone. Starmer as the last British PM with NI in the union has no basis in Labour vote in GE. It’s an outcome which is rightly called broad and shallow. Labour have copped on that the progressive identity they thought they were creating is made of dust. They have to accept the finality of Brexit, distance from the edgy progressives, promote and celebrate Britishness. They are not going to be the party that breaks the Union.
The percentage vote of population in NI does not justify a border poll. It’s not secure enough to claim that at around 37% nationalist.
And stop thinking that the 26 sovereign wealth fund is going to be handed over to NI. If you think sentimentality about unity of the island means that and FDI jobs will be lost here to the 6 then you need to think again. That row hasn’t even started yet.
Finally the southern media and political establishment promote the idea that we should be pitching to NI to join. It’s a lovely thought. When it means losing money and jobs north, think again.
I want a good future for my kids. N.i has great top level education opportunities despite the historical segregated nature.
I am in no way convinced that the Republic of Ireland is better off in that regard. I dont think the southern education system is as good as ours. I dont know enough about their healthcare system to make a judgement but it would be a factory to.
I dont give a flying fuck about borders or about being irish or being british or waving flags.
Alliance gets my vote until otherwise changes. Alliance are also the only party not linked to terrorism. IRA is terrorism, UVF is terrorism UDA is terrorism etc etc. im not gonna argue semantics on that, kill or be killed, reactionary to the state or whatever. Im long done with orange vs green. SF align more socially to my views than dup, tuv etc, but alliance are a better fit in general for me.
unification of ireland isn’t something we need right now in my opinion. We all need a better life in general right now. Hopefully labour can help with that in particular the NHS.
With regards to sovereignty and the E.U, right now N.I has a sweet spot with access to both economic markets…i dontmind it.
Why not independence?
All for a United Ireland, but only call it when it looks like a sure thing, which it is far from right now. Losing a border poll only delays any subsequent polls by another decade at least. Scots came close in 2014, and can’t see any more on the horizon for them.
Calling a border poll soon would only ramp up tensions here unnecessarily.
Be careful though, don’t want to do an SNP.
Not yet but definitely getting the ducks in a row
A boundary review needed first. Should be approximately equal numbers of people in each constituency. The DUP get their MP’s with fewer votes.
The good Friday agreement stipulation is that it’s at the discretion of NI appointed secretary, so that can be interpreted in a number of ways, at what point does he say “OK now is the time” With an overall unionist majority in the vote I reckon that’s reason enough to say it’s not time.
There’s no point in planning a border poll without extensive preparation done beforehand with the UK government, the Republic and the EU, otherwise NI would go down the SNP 2014 route, or face an economic crash in the years following.
Any eventual transition with a yes vote would take years and cost billions, but apart from the expense moderate unionism needs to be convinced their world won’t come crashing down the day after. Parades will still happen and the 12th won’t be banned, in the same way “nationalist” culture like St Patrick’s day and all GAA sports have continued to be celebrated under a UK banner
I think SF are planning for some time before 2030?
Had Sinn Fein unseated the UDA godfather then the incoming Labour Government refusing a border poll would have been untenable.
As it is, it will probably take another twenty years for a viable argument to be made.
Land doesn’t vote people do.
But that is a sight to behold and it really shows the state of play now. The last census showed the long predicted demographic transition is occurring now, perhaps delayed by declining nationalist birth rates and increasing life expectancy of the older generations. It’s undeniable now protestants only a majority in ages above 65 and that was 3 years ago so 68 now.
Fermanagh-South Tyrone is now firmly nationalist with ‘east londonDerry’ the new battleground constituency.
The reasons for Northern Ireland’s creation and the justification for its boundaries have disappeared now.
The next assembly election in 2027(?) will show this further along with an increased Sinn Féin lead and possible nationalist majority, the next Westminster election in 2029 will very likely see ‘east londonDerry’ become a nationalist seat. Will Sinn Féin reach 10 MPs? More likely yes than no. After all that there will be a census in 2030/31, not sure which year they’re doing it now, that will likely show “nationalist background” reach an actual majority.
The 2030s is clearly the decade I’m just not sure which year. Gun to my kneecap? 2036.
Someone had to shoot on the first stroke.
A border poll needs years of campaigning before it is actually called. Unionists and neutrals need to be shown how the benefits of unity will be better than remaining in the union, given that they are naturally opposed to the idea. We need to plan the thing carefully and make sure we have the evidence to combat what will certainly be a massive DUP/TUV misinformation campaign in response.
And this time they need to crack on, none of this boohoo I lost I’m not going to government bull like last time
SDLP spoiled the NW; could have had Gregory Campbell out, but for them.
not even close.
I’m from England
Is there actually any difference between any of the unionist parties or are they just copy and paste jobs ?
Definitely not. If we lose the referendum reunification will never happen. We have to wait until a yes vote is garaunteed
Right now nationalists lead by a tiny margin and that’s because Unionists are in shit. They are divided, some vote alliance and some don’t vote at all, while Nationalists reliably vote Sinn Féin.
On top of that you cannot ignore all the minority communities in each area. Tyrone, Fermanagh, South Armagh and South Down might be green on all election maps but Unionists do still live there despite being poorly represented. The same goes for much of Belfast.
Unionists need to see the benifts of a United Ireland such as free houses and never needing to work a day in their life again otherwise you have to pay for medical treatment which has been your birthright up until now. Its win win win when you consider you only get one life why spend it pulling double shifts.
38 comments
No no no, not just yet.
I want to see unionism punch itself in the face a few more times first.
10 years lads, 10 years and they’ll have nothing left to fight over.
Sinn Féin losti in East derry by 200 votes, Unionism almost banished west of the Bann
[deleted]
Should the border now collectively move up by one county?
Do the south want us?
First year I voted was 1983. Of the 17 NI Westminster seats, one went to SF & one to SDLP. The other 15 were all Unionist. Now just 8 of 18 are Unionist & one of those went to a recount. SF are in the majority at WM, the assembly & the locals.
All of which points to a border poll. The problem is that polls consistently show a strong support for the union. Unionist parties are increasingly regarded as dickheads but the union itself is still popular & until that changes significantly, a BP isn’t going to happen.
There may of course be something unexpected, like Labour deciding NI is too expensive & annoying or a major shift in NI opinion for some reason. The question is, after a disastrous brexit, the DUP being even bigger arseholes than usual, the South being really prosperous compared to the North & this place basically falling apart in terms of public services, why are so many people still supporting the union?
Unionist parties still receive more votes overall, and that’s saying something givin the absolute shit show that they are.
Unionists are more likely to vote Alliance (Lagen Vally, North Down etc.) and vote strategically, for example a good few Unionist vote SDLP in South Down in a futile attempt to keep Sinn Fein out.
Plus the low turnout (57%) is said to favor nationalists, less Unionists going to vote and who can blame them.
Somebody follows Joe Brolly on twitter….
Border should move now like in Risk
Cant we wait until we get a good exchange rate on the euro?
I don’t think the time is right just yet. I say that as someone who supports 100% reunification, but there are still swathes of nationalists (by demographic I suppose) that might not be persuaded to take the leap.
Obviously things like serious discussions on what the post reunification plan actually looks like is the best and maybe only way of getting to those people. Those discussions should happen, and I would suggest that Alliance gets involved with those (although I’m not at all sure theyll want to rock the boat too much in their new seat of Lagan Valley).
That being said, we’re largely at the whim of the Labour Party now as to the actual likelihood of a border poll, and Keir won’t do anything that can be twisted as even semi unpatriotic (let alone the ‘break up of the United Kingdom’). And NI certainly won’t get two stabs at it (despite what the GFA says about every 7 years) it’ll make sense to go for it, when the outcome is locked in.
Perhaps seeing what happens in the Irish elections will be the final decision in pushing for it however I’m of the opinion of shit or get off the pot, Unionism has never been weaker but I don’t sense an urgency for change in the constitutional position.
Yeah maybe the SF MPs will put forward a bill to Westminster…oh wait.
The Naomi Long loss hurts a bit more seeing this – could have been 9-7-2.
At least let some counties out. Everyone shouldn’t have to suffer.
Yawn
What is the change here that would indicate a border poll? Nationalism % hasn’t moved in 2 decades. Yes Unionism has taken a hit from APNI in this period, but nothing happened this election that would indicate calls for a border poll.
I would support reunification, but only if there is a clear plan of transition agreed upon before hand.
We saw what happened with Brexit, where the transition period was chaotic and unorganised. I don’t think anyone wants to go through that process again.
A citizens assembly for instance in the south, would be great.
Overall though, a border poll isn’t gonna happen in the next 10 years, but it will happen within the 10 years after that
Having read Feeneys article I can see as a southerner that there is a sense for Northen nationalists that 2030 border poll is gone. Starmer as the last British PM with NI in the union has no basis in Labour vote in GE. It’s an outcome which is rightly called broad and shallow. Labour have copped on that the progressive identity they thought they were creating is made of dust. They have to accept the finality of Brexit, distance from the edgy progressives, promote and celebrate Britishness. They are not going to be the party that breaks the Union.
The percentage vote of population in NI does not justify a border poll. It’s not secure enough to claim that at around 37% nationalist.
And stop thinking that the 26 sovereign wealth fund is going to be handed over to NI. If you think sentimentality about unity of the island means that and FDI jobs will be lost here to the 6 then you need to think again. That row hasn’t even started yet.
Finally the southern media and political establishment promote the idea that we should be pitching to NI to join. It’s a lovely thought. When it means losing money and jobs north, think again.
I want a good future for my kids. N.i has great top level education opportunities despite the historical segregated nature.
I am in no way convinced that the Republic of Ireland is better off in that regard. I dont think the southern education system is as good as ours. I dont know enough about their healthcare system to make a judgement but it would be a factory to.
I dont give a flying fuck about borders or about being irish or being british or waving flags.
Alliance gets my vote until otherwise changes. Alliance are also the only party not linked to terrorism. IRA is terrorism, UVF is terrorism UDA is terrorism etc etc. im not gonna argue semantics on that, kill or be killed, reactionary to the state or whatever. Im long done with orange vs green. SF align more socially to my views than dup, tuv etc, but alliance are a better fit in general for me.
unification of ireland isn’t something we need right now in my opinion. We all need a better life in general right now. Hopefully labour can help with that in particular the NHS.
With regards to sovereignty and the E.U, right now N.I has a sweet spot with access to both economic markets…i dontmind it.
Why not independence?
All for a United Ireland, but only call it when it looks like a sure thing, which it is far from right now. Losing a border poll only delays any subsequent polls by another decade at least. Scots came close in 2014, and can’t see any more on the horizon for them.
Calling a border poll soon would only ramp up tensions here unnecessarily.
Be careful though, don’t want to do an SNP.
Not yet but definitely getting the ducks in a row
A boundary review needed first. Should be approximately equal numbers of people in each constituency. The DUP get their MP’s with fewer votes.
The good Friday agreement stipulation is that it’s at the discretion of NI appointed secretary, so that can be interpreted in a number of ways, at what point does he say “OK now is the time”
With an overall unionist majority in the vote I reckon that’s reason enough to say it’s not time.
There’s no point in planning a border poll without extensive preparation done beforehand with the UK government, the Republic and the EU, otherwise NI would go down the SNP 2014 route, or face an economic crash in the years following.
Any eventual transition with a yes vote would take years and cost billions, but apart from the expense moderate unionism needs to be convinced their world won’t come crashing down the day after. Parades will still happen and the 12th won’t be banned, in the same way “nationalist” culture like St Patrick’s day and all GAA sports have continued to be celebrated under a UK banner
I think SF are planning for some time before 2030?
Had Sinn Fein unseated the UDA godfather then the incoming Labour Government refusing a border poll would have been untenable.
As it is, it will probably take another twenty years for a viable argument to be made.
Land doesn’t vote people do.
But that is a sight to behold and it really shows the state of play now. The last census showed the long predicted demographic transition is occurring now, perhaps delayed by declining nationalist birth rates and increasing life expectancy of the older generations. It’s undeniable now protestants only a majority in ages above 65 and that was 3 years ago so 68 now.
Fermanagh-South Tyrone is now firmly nationalist with ‘east londonDerry’ the new battleground constituency.
The reasons for Northern Ireland’s creation and the justification for its boundaries have disappeared now.
The next assembly election in 2027(?) will show this further along with an increased Sinn Féin lead and possible nationalist majority, the next Westminster election in 2029 will very likely see ‘east londonDerry’ become a nationalist seat. Will Sinn Féin reach 10 MPs? More likely yes than no. After all that there will be a census in 2030/31, not sure which year they’re doing it now, that will likely show “nationalist background” reach an actual majority.
The 2030s is clearly the decade I’m just not sure which year. Gun to my kneecap? 2036.
Someone had to shoot on the first stroke.
A border poll needs years of campaigning before it is actually called. Unionists and neutrals need to be shown how the benefits of unity will be better than remaining in the union, given that they are naturally opposed to the idea. We need to plan the thing carefully and make sure we have the evidence to combat what will certainly be a massive DUP/TUV misinformation campaign in response.
And this time they need to crack on, none of this boohoo I lost I’m not going to government bull like last time
SDLP spoiled the NW; could have had Gregory Campbell out, but for them.
not even close.
I’m from England
Is there actually any difference between any of the unionist parties or are they just copy and paste jobs ?
Definitely not. If we lose the referendum reunification will never happen. We have to wait until a yes vote is garaunteed
Right now nationalists lead by a tiny margin and that’s because Unionists are in shit. They are divided, some vote alliance and some don’t vote at all, while Nationalists reliably vote Sinn Féin.
On top of that you cannot ignore all the minority communities in each area. Tyrone, Fermanagh, South Armagh and South Down might be green on all election maps but Unionists do still live there despite being poorly represented. The same goes for much of Belfast.
Unionists need to see the benifts of a United Ireland such as free houses and never needing to work a day in their life again otherwise you have to pay for medical treatment which has been your birthright up until now. Its win win win when you consider you only get one life why spend it pulling double shifts.