Where now for the SNP and its independence strategy after election rejection
July 6, 2024
Where now for the SNP and its independence strategy after election rejection
by Halk
15 comments
It depends on why the SNP were rejected.
Was a rejection of policy?
Was it a rejection due to scandal?
Was it a rejection due to voting Labour to get the Tories out?
Without knowing the why, it’s impossible to know the next steps.
Fairly interesting to see that it was a rejection of independence, when if they’d won absolutely no papers would be running “Scotland votes for independence” as a headline.
Independence is dead, the harsh reality is that most Scots have bought the narrative that we’re to wee, poor and shit. Just look at the football. Besides, with how shit things are at the moment, people are far more focused on essentials like paying the bills, keeping a roof over their heads and putting food on the table. Stuff like independence just isn’t important enough, people just don’t see any tangible benefit and a whole lot of risks, that’s a really tough sell.
I suspect the SNP will struggle on but not sure they will be much of a force again, Labour will use this victory to double down on securing Scotland in the union as those 30 or 40 odd MP’s will be useful in preserving their power at the next election and it should be relatively cheap to hold them. They can do a lot to encourage investment in Scotland and if that brings back the feel good factor, it’s game over.
They weren’t rejected because of independence, unless it was because they did very little other than pay lip service to the idea, usually directly before elections. Honestly, the opposition on Scotland talked more about independence than the the SNP did in the last few years.
Poll after poll after poll has shown that the support for independence (and against) has not moved that much since 2014. Which makes sense really, since the SNP have singularly failed to make any use of any possible periods where that support might have been increased since 2014.
Which leaves other reasons for the loss of support.
Where do you start with this one…. There’s only so long you can pull the old chestnut of “it’s not our fault, it’s Westminsters”, even though taxation, education and health are devolved to Scotland – there’s nobody to blame but the SNP. There’s been too many scandals – the 11 grand IPad bill, Sturgeon and her husbands fraud, Humza Yousef being racist and completely useless and that’s before I even mention the coalition with the lunatic Greens. There’s no mandate for independence, that’s gone. Stop blaming Westminster. Focus on the issues we have as a country and deal with them. Show they can be trusted, but to be fair, they’ve had 17 years in power and things are worse now than they’ve ever been.
As a long term independence supporter, I hate to say it, but, the SNP need to get their house in order and get Scotland fighting fit before going for independence again. They’re in no shape to either get or win a referendum.
We have an inexperienced Labour Party in Westminster who will be keen to make their mark. For the next two years the SNP Scottish Government needs to cooperate while also playing them. Get as many concessions as possible, make Scotland’s case at every turn, be constructive with Labour Westminster, but always putting Scotland first. But don’t be afraid to pick the right fights as well. Absolutely do NOT allow Labour to treat the Scottish Parliament as equals to English Mayors. Make Holyrood look like an equal with Westminster at absolutely every turn and make it clear that the SNP are the party OF Scotland.
If the SNP do this right and manage to show their strength in government, then MAYBE they can have a good Holyrood election in two years time. Make it clear the SNP is a government, Scottish Labour is a branch office. Then they can start figuring out the route to independence.
I think it was definitely a lot of folk voting Labour in order to get rid of the Tories, and to a lesser extent the loss of support since Sturgeon left and the SNP having been seen to have lost momentum and focus since.
I definitely think that the next election, Holyrood or Westminster, will see a turn back towards the SNP. Maybe not to the extent that they had in recent years but they will definitely recover quite a few lost seats.
There will have been a lot of the Labour vote that are pro independence, but had to make a choice between that and getting the Tories out (although that would have happened anyway), so I don’t think this GE result can be construed as an opinion on independence.
Back to being a fringe party of Brigadoon dreamers. Next step is to roll-back the failed experiment in devolution.
Never underestimate the importance of public speaking in elections, debates and campaigns. The fact that in the uk the best public speaking party leader is farage is terrifying.
The SNP was rejected on the basis of the scandal of the investigation into the party by the police, they may have had problems with some policies but the police investigation was the straw that broke the camel’s back much like the reason why The Tories lost was because of Partygate.
In the doldrums until the next time the UK shifts Tory but Scotland does not.
If Scotland wanted independence it’d vote SNP no matter if Tories or Labour were in.
Pity because the EU is well prepared to have an independent Scotland back.
Maybe focus on what people actually care about. Not too downplay Gaza and gender issues, but really not in most folks top 5 or 10 issues.
Keep Swinney in place, or perhaps a new leader, and then try to rebuild their reputation.
Kate Forbes would be a mistake, as I cannot imagine she will succeed in taking back support in the central belt and frankly there are plenty of people who would refuse to vote SNP because of her.
My biggest fear is that the SNP will be taken over by the fringes and be relegated to fruitcake status, like Alba.
What strategy?
Firstly the SNP Government is in big big trouble and is now on notice. It has been failing to deliver for a long time now and complaining about Westminster is akin to saying we have no policy ideas without saying they have no policy ideas.
Other than throwing money at public services. They need investment but also the structures need review and reform. We need to seriously talk about this. Our public services are in no way ‘independence ready’.
Speaking of independence, the SNP’s focus on this is as much a core vote strategy as National Service and tax cuts are for the Tories. It’s not dead, it’s just people have bigger priorities like surviving.
The independence movement meets to work out how to get out of its cul-de-sac. It needs to work out how to win over new support. A referendum ain’t coming with polling on 45%, but pressure for it will come at 55, 60, 65%
15 comments
It depends on why the SNP were rejected.
Was a rejection of policy?
Was it a rejection due to scandal?
Was it a rejection due to voting Labour to get the Tories out?
Without knowing the why, it’s impossible to know the next steps.
Fairly interesting to see that it was a rejection of independence, when if they’d won absolutely no papers would be running “Scotland votes for independence” as a headline.
Independence is dead, the harsh reality is that most Scots have bought the narrative that we’re to wee, poor and shit. Just look at the football. Besides, with how shit things are at the moment, people are far more focused on essentials like paying the bills, keeping a roof over their heads and putting food on the table. Stuff like independence just isn’t important enough, people just don’t see any tangible benefit and a whole lot of risks, that’s a really tough sell.
I suspect the SNP will struggle on but not sure they will be much of a force again, Labour will use this victory to double down on securing Scotland in the union as those 30 or 40 odd MP’s will be useful in preserving their power at the next election and it should be relatively cheap to hold them. They can do a lot to encourage investment in Scotland and if that brings back the feel good factor, it’s game over.
They weren’t rejected because of independence, unless it was because they did very little other than pay lip service to the idea, usually directly before elections. Honestly, the opposition on Scotland talked more about independence than the the SNP did in the last few years.
Poll after poll after poll has shown that the support for independence (and against) has not moved that much since 2014. Which makes sense really, since the SNP have singularly failed to make any use of any possible periods where that support might have been increased since 2014.
Which leaves other reasons for the loss of support.
Where do you start with this one…. There’s only so long you can pull the old chestnut of “it’s not our fault, it’s Westminsters”, even though taxation, education and health are devolved to Scotland – there’s nobody to blame but the SNP. There’s been too many scandals – the 11 grand IPad bill, Sturgeon and her husbands fraud, Humza Yousef being racist and completely useless and that’s before I even mention the coalition with the lunatic Greens.
There’s no mandate for independence, that’s gone. Stop blaming Westminster. Focus on the issues we have as a country and deal with them. Show they can be trusted, but to be fair, they’ve had 17 years in power and things are worse now than they’ve ever been.
As a long term independence supporter, I hate to say it, but, the SNP need to get their house in order and get Scotland fighting fit before going for independence again. They’re in no shape to either get or win a referendum.
We have an inexperienced Labour Party in Westminster who will be keen to make their mark. For the next two years the SNP Scottish Government needs to cooperate while also playing them. Get as many concessions as possible, make Scotland’s case at every turn, be constructive with Labour Westminster, but always putting Scotland first. But don’t be afraid to pick the right fights as well. Absolutely do NOT allow Labour to treat the Scottish Parliament as equals to English Mayors. Make Holyrood look like an equal with Westminster at absolutely every turn and make it clear that the SNP are the party OF Scotland.
If the SNP do this right and manage to show their strength in government, then MAYBE they can have a good Holyrood election in two years time. Make it clear the SNP is a government, Scottish Labour is a branch office. Then they can start figuring out the route to independence.
I think it was definitely a lot of folk voting Labour in order to get rid of the Tories, and to a lesser extent the loss of support since Sturgeon left and the SNP having been seen to have lost momentum and focus since.
I definitely think that the next election, Holyrood or Westminster, will see a turn back towards the SNP. Maybe not to the extent that they had in recent years but they will definitely recover quite a few lost seats.
There will have been a lot of the Labour vote that are pro independence, but had to make a choice between that and getting the Tories out (although that would have happened anyway), so I don’t think this GE result can be construed as an opinion on independence.
Back to being a fringe party of Brigadoon dreamers. Next step is to roll-back the failed experiment in devolution.
Never underestimate the importance of public speaking in elections, debates and campaigns. The fact that in the uk the best public speaking party leader is farage is terrifying.
The SNP was rejected on the basis of the scandal of the investigation into the party by the police, they may have had problems with some policies but the police investigation was the straw that broke the camel’s back much like the reason why The Tories lost was because of Partygate.
In the doldrums until the next time the UK shifts Tory but Scotland does not.
If Scotland wanted independence it’d vote SNP no matter if Tories or Labour were in.
Pity because the EU is well prepared to have an independent Scotland back.
Maybe focus on what people actually care about. Not too downplay Gaza and gender issues, but really not in most folks top 5 or 10 issues.
Keep Swinney in place, or perhaps a new leader, and then try to rebuild their reputation.
Kate Forbes would be a mistake, as I cannot imagine she will succeed in taking back support in the central belt and frankly there are plenty of people who would refuse to vote SNP because of her.
My biggest fear is that the SNP will be taken over by the fringes and be relegated to fruitcake status, like Alba.
What strategy?
Firstly the SNP Government is in big big trouble and is now on notice. It has been failing to deliver for a long time now and complaining about Westminster is akin to saying we have no policy ideas without saying they have no policy ideas.
Other than throwing money at public services. They need investment but also the structures need review and reform. We need to seriously talk about this. Our public services are in no way ‘independence ready’.
Speaking of independence, the SNP’s focus on this is as much a core vote strategy as National Service and tax cuts are for the Tories. It’s not dead, it’s just people have bigger priorities like surviving.
The independence movement meets to work out how to get out of its cul-de-sac. It needs to work out how to win over new support. A referendum ain’t coming with polling on 45%, but pressure for it will come at 55, 60, 65%