Putin’s strategic aims face collapse as Ukraine hits Russia and EU accession looms | Scott Lucas

Putin’s strategic aims face collapse as Ukraine hits Russia and EU accession looms | Scott Lucas

we really are now moving into the phase I think of where we’re going to be in the Long Haul politically and economically as well as militarily um and I’d say that even as Ukraine is hitting back they’re carrying out their own air strikes against the Russians the biggest development I think uh this month so far has been the opening of the uh accession talks for Ukraine and for its neighbor Moldova to join the European Union um you might remember that soon after the Russian invasion in 2022 both countries applied to the EU to join there is a protracted process when you get candidacy status as to whether you meet the conditions to proceed into negotiations uh Ukraine and mova both in terms of anti-corruption legislation good governance judicial reform whole series of conditions and now the EU has said yeah we’re ready for the negotiations to start which they did on the 25th in Luxembourg hello and welcome to Frontline for times radio I’m James Hanson and today we’re talking about the latest on the war in Ukraine and I’m delighted to be joined by one of our regular guests here on front line Professor Scott Lucas from the Clinton Institute at University College Dublin Scott always a pleasure welcome back hey thank you for letting me sneak back in James uh to begin with give us your assessment on where we are in this conflict at the moment as we enter July 2024 uh James I think think we’re in it for the long halul uh this is now what going into the 29th month of the Russian invasion the fulls scale invasion of Ukraine uh it’s now over 10 years since Russia tried to split off part of the country uh after the Madan revolution of 2014 removed the pro-russian leader Victor yanukovich so you know we’re not it’s not going to be like a dramatic end with a breakthrough on the battlefield front lines uh it’s about a year since Ukraine launched its big offensive that petered out in the East and in the South but more importantly I think the Russian offensive uh that we’ve watched since the start of the year uh has it’s gained a few villages in the East but the harib offensive which we were talking about a month ago uh the crossb offensive that has now pretty much stalled out and while the Russians are occupying a few more villages in detet they haven’t had a big breakthrough for example hasar which was a strategic town that they’ve been assaulting for months because it occupies The High Ground to the west of uh Russian occupied denex they haven’t been able to take it yet um and I think failing a Russian breakthrough like that on the front line you know it’s we’re sort of in a loop right now about the Russians keep saying we’re going to get you we’re going to get you and Ukraine saying to the West make sure that you got our backs that you got it bolstered U I think there’s a second front which is the air war that the Russians are launching and the air what has changed that this year has been the guided bombs and what the Russians are doing is is that they put their aircraft over their territory they fire from there with these guided bombs that you know quote Precision weapons if they’re Precision weapons they’re being used on civilian targets by and large especially on harv city um and uh Vladimir zinsky the Ukrainian president said yesterday more than 800 fired in the last month so it’s that Russian effort you know to damage energy infrastructure but to break civilian resistance on a day afterday basis and again the question is not that the Russians I think will break Ukraine’s resistance on it but can they break the International Community from supporting Ukraine which actually brings me I think to the most important front The Wider front and that is we really are now moving into the phase I think of where we’re going to be in the Long Haul politically and economically as well as militarily um and I’d say that even as Ukraine is hitting back they’re carrying out their own air strikes against the Russians the biggest development I think uh this month so far has been the opening of the uh accession talks for Ukraine and for its neighbor Moldova to join the European Union uh you might remember that soon after the Russian invasion in 2022 both countries applied to the EU to join there is a protracted process when you get candidacy status as to whether you meet the conditions to proceed into negotiations uh Ukraine and Moldova both in terms of anti-corruption legislation good governance judicial reform whole series of conditions and now the EU has said yeah we’re ready for the negotiations to start which they did on the 25th in Luxembourg now these won’t be quick these will take some time but I do think we are in the position where you know you could well see Ukraine and mova even as Russia occupies parts of both of those countries coming into the EU as the 28th and 29th members which it’s a loose parallel I stress a loose parallel because I hope it won’t last for for 40 years but in the Cold War you know your viewers and listeners will remember that there was a divided Germany that as you know the russian-backed East German government clamped down on the population West Germany joined uh NATO West Germany of course would be one of the founding members of the European Union uh it was to serve as an example to those in the East look this is what you can do economically and politically and eventually you know the the story that in 1989 uh the East German system collapsed and eventually German was re Germany was reunited two three years later and like I said it’s a loose parallel because I hope it’s not 40 years before the Russian occupation of Ukraine is ended but the general approach which is even during military conflict that you show a country which is economically and politically resilient and it’s part of a larger block a larger group I think that’s where we’re heading and surely that speaks to the fact that that for all the Tactical gains Russia has made this year on the ground in Ukraine from a strategic perspective vladim Putin has failed spectacularly in some of his big goals because he wanted to undermine any sense of Ukrainian sovereignty and national identity and the fact that we’re now talking about accession talks to the EU if anything he has fostered a greater sense of Ukrainian national sovereignty and identity than ever before yeah absolutely I mean let’s let’s knock something on the head because it’s a whole bunch of GFF from those who excuse Putin’s Invasion um indeed sometimes support it and I’m talking about activist and even some academics uh in the UK in Europe in the US and that is oh this was this was NATO that caused the War this was NATO that provoked Putin to doing this because Ukraine was going to become a member of NATO no it wasn’t in 2022 there was absolutely no Prospect of Ukraine joining NATO uh the talks which had been sort of in principle you know mentioned in 2008 they had long been set aside uh there was no Prospect of NATO joining the European Union uh at that point you know and here we go just as Putin led to Sweden and Finland joining NATO uh just as it led to a European Union commitment to Ukraine generally now he is fostering that process that he supposedly was trying to stop um he may still stop it we’ll get on to talk about Donald Trump in a few minutes I suspect uh but at this point at this point no I you know I find on a day-to-day basis and understand why that people will look at every small development on the battlefield and especially if they fall for Kremlin propaganda and say oh you know Ukraine can’t hang on Ukraine can’t hang on and we’re now talking about a much wider conflict here we’re talking about the Battle for a secure Ukraine politically and economically and I think if it does join the EU and if in effect it’s working with NATO even if it doesn’t become a NATO member that’s probably far more secure in the longer run than it was in 2014 when Russia started trying and break it apart you mentioned Donald Trump a moment ago Scott let’s touch on him because throughout people have speculated that one of Vladimir Putin’s strategies is to sit and wait and hope that Trump returns to the White House in November and let’s be honest speaking at the moment as we enter July 2024 that looks increasingly likely particularly given President Biden’s pretty disastrous debate performance last week that may further damage his chances what is your sense of of the political situation in the US um yeah probably we from a separate front line but I’ll I’ll leave that to talk about uh what is now I think the nightmare becoming reality in the US and and I’ll cut to the chase I think if Joe Biden uh persist in the candidacy for November I think he is such a frail candidate uh that it opens the door for Trump to get back into the White House despite the fact and I’ll say this and I always say this for listeners let us remind ourselves that Donald Trump uh is a convicted felon he is a convicted sex offender he is a convicted fraudster he is a man who attempted a coup in 2021 to hold on to uh the presidency illegally uh he is a Serial liar and he is a friend of Vladimir Putin uh because uh to cut to the chase in that debate and if you you know it was overshadowed because of Biden pool performance but Trump repeated that if he becomes president Ukraine does not get another dollar of aid from the US and again your viewers and listeners will remember in 2019 Donald Trump blackmailed Ukraine even as Russia was through hybrid Warfare trying to break Ukraine Donald Trump froze military aid because Ukraine would not dish dirt on Joe Biden at that point so this is a man who from a personal point of view thinks that Ukraine specifically the zalinsky government did not help him this is a man who has this crude idea that if any country gets assistance from the United States it is ripping America off you know he said that about Japan getting him you know an American Ally he said said it about South Korea he said it about NATO why wouldn’t he say it about Ukraine so let’s be very very clear here that for months the European Union uh and other countries have been making contingency plans for Trump coming in this is one reason why it was vital for the European Union to adopt the 50 billion Euro fund for financial support of Ukraine which was adopted in the spring um this is why it was vital for the US Congress to PX the $60 billion military aid package back in April U those contingency plans again if Biden persist in running are probably going to have to be activated and I think even if even if Biden’s replaced by another Democratic candidate I think it’s now an uphill battle to to keep Trump from getting back into the White House um and and and rest assured that that there will be discussions going on privately it will not be floated publicly because you don’t want to say the game is up but across Europe and indeed Australia China Japan and other countries they’re all making plans for what to do to support Ukraine if the Trump Administration takes America onto the sidelines well let’s just look ahead to that potential scenario let’s say Trump does win let’s say he cuts off all future US military aid to Ukraine I mean you’re going to have to have a huge ramping up of assistance as you say from the EU from Britain Australia South Korea potentially Japan Etc is there the political will for that I mean we’ve had elections over the weekend in France with the populist right doing extraordinarily well there and questions over what their position to Ukraine would be so is there the will in Europe and elsewhere to to increase support to the levels that would be required let me say one thing on the US front before we move away from that and that is that it’s really important to recognize that um a lot of this is in terms of what US Agencies do even if the headline is that Congress doesn’t adopt any more Aid immediately uh you know us milit Ary logistical assistance intelligence provision is still going to be vital uh V you know the US state department providing diplomatic assistance is vital US Treasury working with for example the international monetary fund the World Bank and the the EU for example even if the US doesn’t provide Aid working with others in terms of the most effective way to provide Aid now that does not substitute for all out American Support so you talk about what the other countries do um it’s going to be a heavy lift to say the least uh because you’re trying to replace uh what would be billions of dollars in American aid but do remember that the largest provider of assistance to Ukraine um today has not been the United States the largest provider of Aid to the to the uh to Ukraine has been the European Union and of course if you talk about constituent members within the EU right such as the Germans who’ve been the second largest provider of military then it becomes important uh remember that when it comes for example to f-16s us made f-16s that those are not being provided by the Americans those are being provided by countries who have usf-1 16s um and so that’s what we’re talking about we have to keep an eye in terms of a sort of a revamped effort in terms of what takes place and I’ll also mention I know every proin person is going to jump on this on YouTube so let them come and do it CIA also has ways to provides cobbert assistance to Ukraine um now you have to talk about how that’s done it’s done through secret budgets um but it’s something that that is there uh not again to the level of what the penod can provide in assistance but the CIA can do it and by the way as the C that doesn’t mean the CIA is running the war in Ukraine for all you kemin groupes out there it just means that you know in terms of providing what is vital in terms of Ukrainian defense against Russia R yeah there’s still some copt assistance that could be put out and in terms of you know what we’re seeing in France and the rise of the afd for instance in Germany and and other populist parties I mean how big a worry is that for you Scott sorry yeah let me I I apologize the question I should have been answering no no no that was that was fascinating that was really background but yeah I mean the je challenge let’s talk about France right now because it’s in the headlines because of the first round of Elections that took place yesterday by the way an important caveat here is it’s only the first round of the French elections uh recognizing that we’re in new territory in that the national rally rbl National the far right party formerly a Neo-Nazi party uh took the largest share of the vote you’ve got to go through the second round of the National Assembly elections to see how many seats they eventually get and that’s going to turn upon whether the other two main blocks which are the leftwing popular front and Emanuel macron cist block whether they unite against the rightwing but being that as it may let’s say that the largest party in the National Assembly is Marine Le Pen’s party and let’s even say that Jordan bardella uh becomes prime minister uh Leen and bardel have said they will continue to support Ukraine they have not taken the Victor Orban line in Hungary um they have not taken the afd line right and indeed they’ve distanced themselves from the afd in Germany so we would have to see what happens uh if they were in power in France whether they would stick to that but at this point uh leave it you know a hard right victory in France does not take France off the table in terms of supporting Ukraine uh the afd and Germany did not actually do as well as was anticipated in the European elections last month a lot of people missed this because the whole idea is farri surge which was kind of misleading the afd still took 15% of the vote but they were projected to take more 20 um and what was key here is is that the central right party the CDU uh the Christian democrats they actually were the ones that did the best in that election so even if Olaf Schultz who is Center left even if he is weakened as a Chancellor the German system is not in terms of pro providing support for Ukraine that takes place and the big development is is that the real threat to Europe supporting Ukraine of course had been Hungary who by the way takes the presidency of the European Union for six months today but uh what we’ve seen is is that Victor Orban will push push push in terms of threatening to hold up European Union Aid to threaten the accession talks with Ukraine and then he’ll pull back he will pull back from the brink of forcing a showdown with the EU and the working arrangement now is that as long as Hungary stays on the sidelines in terms of what NATO does as long as Hungary stays on the sidelines of what the EU does they can be president for six months um but they don’t get in the way of the initiatives that are taking place right now in terms of providing the political economic Military Support yeah one other thing about it’s a little one most people wouldn’t notice slov there was a big deal about Slovakia when a guy named uh robertt uh Robert fishko uh one became prime minister last Autumn because he was going to be like oh he’s just like Victor Orban Slovakia has a government is not providing assistance military assistance to Ukraine but it is said and repeated this past week that it is okay for private groups in Slovakia to provide military assistance so even Slovakia is not taking as hard a line in reality as in public and similarly Serbia which was seen as being very much president being sympathetic to Putin uh Alexander VC uh has actually said that they have no problem uh with Serbian arms going through other countries and being provided to Ukraine and we should probably just note just by way of marking the card for our International viewers that probably this time next week there’ll be a new government in the UK although in the UK there is cross party consensus when it comes to support for Ukraine but but just to note that in terms of the situation in the US I mean one of the questions I have Scott is well if if if Biden is going to see out his term at the very least whether he runs again in November who knows surely it’s in his interest to do everything he can to ramp up support for Ukraine now now I appreciate there are hurdles in terms of passing new Aid bills through Congress because the Republicans reluctance to do so in some cases but you know things like placing restrictions on where Ukraine can use longrange weapons inside Russian territory it still is surprising to me that there are such restrictions and it’s a little bit surprising to me and it’s especially well if not surprising disconcerting for Vladimir zalinski um all I can tell you is that from while the Americans have provided the bid Administration has provided essential assistance to Ukraine throughout this invasion they have always been hesitant as to how far they gave support to Ukraine in terms of the idea that it would provoke a greater Russian response and retaliation U your folks who have got long memories will remember that this was the issue behind providing tanks to Ukraine uh all the way back in 2022 uh they’ll know that it delayed uh making any arrangements for trying to provide war planes like the f-16s which of course we finally expect will be delivered later this year but could have been delivered much sooner um because the Americans were worried that Russia would you know jack up as it were the threats of strikes not only on Ukraine but on other countries as well and we’re in the iteration where the Americans are worried that if Ukraine uses long range American missiles which were finally provided in April uh the atacms missiles which have a range of 300 kilometers then uh that would uh that would provoke the Russians again you know who thought their chest we’ve got nuclear weapons we’ve got our own missiles we could do this we could do that in reality if you use the US long range missiles on Russian positions in Crimea which I suspect is where we’re going and if you use British and French Storm Shadow and Scout missiles on Russian positions um then I I I don’t think that this is a you know as it were a position that collapses I think the immediate problem that we had was is that the Americans were not even letting ukra UK hit Uh Russian firing positions that were being used to support the crossb offensives and they finally have relapsed that we are going to I think get to a point in terms of and this is what zilinsky highlighted yesterday if he paid a lot of attention to what he said because he mentioned those 800 Glide bombs that the Russians have fired in the past month and what he said is you’ve got to hit the Russian launching positions and you’ve got to hit Russian war planes and I think that’s where the the rubber is going to hit the road because if you fire on a Russian war plane which is over Russian territory is that an expansion of the war which is unacceptable and of course once Ukraine gets f16s when can the f-16s engage Russian war planes you know and I’m just going to say that you can see why the Americans might be hesitant about that um but what you’ve got is is that the Kremlin is operating in uh a position of sanctuary here that as long as you don’t start to think about how you can engage those military positions that are continuing to fire on Ukraine and so on Putin knows he’s got a free pass for some of those attacks that are going to be carried especially in the eastern Ukraine not the southern front as much because that’s coming from Crimea and from the Black Sea but in eastern Ukraine that’s the the the place where he sort of gets a little bit a free reign because of the American restrictions so far you mentioned crime a moment ago is it your view Scott that really Ukraine winning this war comes down to what happens in Crimea whether it’s destroying the kch bridge whether it’s making significant inroads into Crimea do you think Crimea holds the key first of all is when we talk about winning this war we need to deal with something here that almost everybody I think a lot of people are getting this wrong and that is you’re not going to see this war being won with a battlefield Victory not at least in the near future right um so when you talk about Ukraine hitting Crimea remember that the Ukraine’s already damaged or destroyed onethird of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet and that much of the Black Sea fleet has been withdrawn back to Russia so Ukraine in a sense is already won in the sense that it has defended itself against that Naval threat and indeed I think the last Russian warship that could fire missiles that was missile capable uh was actually damaged Beyond repair uh a few weeks ago if you talk about what Ukraine has done with the ability to degrade Russia not completely remove their military capability but great Crimea yes that that’s happened but that primarily safeguards Southern Ukraine if you think about it there is the border that take place so we’re not talking about a battlefield victory of this one what we’re doing is is we’re actually drawing lines against how far the Russians can press their campaign if it takes it so what does winning look like and this returns us to an earlier point in the discussion uh Ukraine has never thought that it was going to be able to get Crimea back which of course Russia annexed in 2014 so if you go back to the Ukrainian proposal that they made back in April of 2012 their proposal in April of 22 and by the way folks again to not back a kremin talking point these talks were not scuppered because Boris Johnson went to ke and told Ukraine you can’t negotiate with the Russians they were scuppered because Russia put unacceptable conditions down but Ukraine’s position was we have a 10 to 15 year cooling off period in Crimea and then we put it to the people of Crimea as to what they want their status to be and I think that’s where we still are that crimeia is in this limbo for this what you’re really talking about are the four regions that Vladimir Putin wanted to Annex two in the South zapia Harrison two in the East denet Lans will Russia be allowed to establish long-term occupation of those areas effectively partitioning Ukraine and what winning constitutes in this is not that you defeat the Russians militarily in those areas but that you do not surrender and accept the long-term Russian occupation right which is precisely what the kremin wants every time kmin says peace negotiations that’s what they want that what they’re saying is we want to demilitarize Ukraine and we want those four air regions of Ukraine to be that and if you ever have anyone give way to those negotiations whether or not they’re just being naive or deceptive that’s that’s when you get that’s when you lose effectively so what do you do you keep the political economic options open so you build up Ukraine in the areas that are Beyond those full regions you support Ukraine in those four regions and you do not give way on the long-term status of those areas that Putin tried to seize uh when his allout invasion failed to take ke Professor Scott Lucas we always appreciate you time thank you so much for joining us today on Frontline thank your Jes thank you for watching Frontline for times radio for more on Global Security and the war in Ukraine you can listen to times radio take out a digital subscription to the times and click subscribe on our YouTube channel

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