WW3 Likely Triggered By This Conflict as Defense Pacts Kick In – It’s Not Mideast or Russia-Ukraine

WW3 Likely Triggered By This Conflict as Defense Pacts Kick In – It’s Not Mideast or Russia-Ukraine

obviously could drag us into uh what some might call World War III where it triggered M Mutual defense imps and whereas we’re not World War III we’re definitely in a world of Wars now whether those things merge into one larger conflict that’s the big concern you know and and also the concern is when you look at the Players uh the networking the linkages at Chinese Leed axis of Russia Iran North Korea I I I think we’re going to have to start thinking in those sorts of geostrategic terms and I think we’re going to have to view the world and look at these conflicts in those sorts of terms that’s the center of gravity as certainly if you look at the the big threat the one that that impacts markets where the US probably has uh the biggest financial interest [Music] overall on the spot with Michelle mccy is brought to you by Swan Bitcoin hello I’m Michelle mccy thank you for joining us the international trading system is on the brink of fragmentation due to Rising geopolitical tensions that’s according to the United Nations which says new global trade barriers have nearly tripled since 2019 due mostly to geopolitical rivalry and there are multitude of conflicts around the world right now tensions are escalating in the Middle East between Iranian back hisbah and Israel with with Iran saying that an obliterating War would ensue if Israel launches a full-scale attack in Lebanon which Israel has threatened to do in retaliation to constant missile and rocket bombardments from hisbah into Israel’s North the US and Europe are warning hisbah to stop its missiles and Rocket strikes on Northern Israel and back off from a wider midd East War as the war between Hamas and Israel still continues and the Russia Ukraine war is showing no signs of diplomatic resolution on the contrary us defense secretary Lloyd Austin has recently announced that Washington will soon deliver an additional $2.3 billion in security assistance for Ukraine including anti-tank weapons interceptors and Munitions for Patriot and other air defense systems and in the meantime Russia’s warning that it may take unspecified measures in response to us drone flights over the black SE now those are just the biggest Wars currently raging there are several conflict flash points around the globe that can escalate at any time but my next guest says that there is a significant geopolitical threat that is not receiving much mainstream attention and could in fact spark a world war or at the very least spiral into a situation with crippling economic impact hell Campa is the CEO of grip Global risk intelligence and planning an international Consulting and training firm focused on strategic risk intelligence and planning hell is a retired Marine intelligence officer with over 24 years of service hell welcome back good to have you back with us on Kitco thank you Michelle all right Hal I want to get your thoughts on several of these flash points I mentioned but before we do let’s start with what you have said is a situation that is at an extreme risk of escalation and that’s the South China Sea and there have been recent clashes there between Chinese and Philippine forces and you say that there’s a risk that it could drag the us into a war with China because this could trigger the US Philippine Mutual defense treaty and then spark a major global conflict with various countries so hell help us understand why you’re focused on the South China Sea what’s the latest there and why in your mind this is one of the top threats Michelle certainly I I don’t ignore the uh what’s going on in Europe with the war in Ukraine and certainly what’s happening in the Middle East and with Iran but if you really want to look at where there is a a huge potential impact not just in terms of War fighting in terms of the uh the kinetics the potential Carnage if you will uh that takes place in war but also the impact on markets you really have to look at the South China Sea uh as as you mentioned the Philippines uh it has become an ongoing series of confrontations that see the uh Philippines has an old uh uh basic Landing ship that the US had built in World War II that they uh grounded at the second Thomas sha it’s within their exclusive economic zone under UN treaty uh they’ve been Manning that to maintain a position there China has this overarching claim that they basically claim pretty much the entire South China Sea as Chinese Waters and and what’s happened is uh simple resupply missions have become major events where they’re ramming boats they’re using uh the Chinese Coast Guard is using water cannons this thing is on a hair trigger and and if it goes kinetic that’s where that Mutual defense treaty steps in that’s where the us could be uh pulled in if it goes that way and it’s ongoing it’s it’s not dissipating but it seems to have escalated earlier in June where apparently Filipino soldiers said that they had to use their bare hands to fend off armed Chinese co- Scot Personnel uh explain what happened and why that particular altercation is Raising concern Michelle it wasn’t just bare hands although that was part of it um actually if you if you look at video that was on it you would see that the Chinese had taken out knives and axes they were actually uh attacking the uh the boats that the uh Philippines were on in one case they Ram their boat into a Philippine boat and uh it’s not clear but it looks like it almost severed the thumb of one of the Philippine Sailors that’s what’s happening there uh there was one point where there were blocking a Philippine resupply Mission and it’s not quite clear at first it was reported that the uh the the Philippine Sailors uh actually had their possibly their weapons drawn uh then that was kind of walked back a little bit say no they just had their hands on the weapons but either way it it got very close to turning into a firefight or a gunfight at Sea that’s what was happening with that situation the the the Chinese have made it very clear that they just they see this as Philippine are they see it as Chinese Waters they see uh any Philippine uh resupply Mission or any Philippine uh uh forces out there or even Philippine fishing boats as in as basically an incursion onto their Sovereign Waters and what they did some years back was they took a a lot of Chinese naval ships and they painted them white and they took off a couple of deck guns they said Chinese Coast Guard and it was to make it look like it was a sort of a little Kinder friendlier presence if you will at sea but they have flooded the South China Sea with Chinese Coast Guard and what they do is they’re basically an enforcement mechanism for this overarching claim which I should mention the international court has heard the the the Chinese claim they threw it back at them said there is no basis international law there is no basis under the UN conventional law the the sea and so the chinesee lost in court now they’re trying to uh uh compensate by physical presence on the water okay but hell the South China Sea has long been very contentious not only China and the Philippines claim it or parts of it also Vietnam Malaysia brunai Taiwan as you just mentioned China claims almost the entire South China Sea and not just by name and as you just said that was invalidated by an international tribunal back in 2016 but my point is is that this is an ongoing issue this is nothing new why are you concerned about this now why are these clashes potentially worse than previous once it’s the level of activity that’s that’s really changed it’s the operational Tempo or optempo as you like to say if you look down and around the Philippines they’re constantly confronting uh Philippine vessels uh they’re becoming more and more um you know audacious in terms of what they’re willing to do you know there’s a thing that in in Maritime matters called scraping paint that’s when ships will touch they don’t actually Ram each other uh they’re getting very close to doing ramming operations of course there been for quite some time they’ve been using these uh basically uh water cannons to attack uh Chinese fishing boats but then you go further north and you start to see what they’re doing around the Philippines and what they have done or not Philippines I’m sorry around Taiwan and what they have done is they have increased the operational Tempo with air incursions and Seaborn basically practicing for either a very large Naval blockade or a possible amphibious assault on Taiwan to forcibly take Taiwan to repatriate it as they would say uh to China these things aren’t happening in isolation they’re happening all at the same time and and frankly that that the US and others are tied up with this big war in Europe and this big war in the Middle East some may say that’s coincidental if you look at where chinesee position with uh with Iran and Russia they are the number one backer of Russia across the board uh they have been doing belt and Road initiative uh activities uh with Iran for for some time uh they have uh they they basically have turned Russia into almost a vassal state if you will uh economically speaking keeping uh Putin and and Russia float economically uh during this war and with that said that is drawing a lot of resources that the US might have for other things if you look at the houie rebels and what they’re doing in the Red Sea that ties up Naval assets that might be patrolling uh in the South China Sea in fact uh we’re putting in a carrier task force that was just in South Korea that is now having to uh basically cross over to go to the Red Sea area uh to defend against uh houie Rebel anti-missiles anti or houie Rebel missiles and drones I should say and that gives you an idea of just how disruptive these other Wars are and how it makes the South China less protected than it otherwise might be right so you think that this is then an intentional provocation from China they’re intentionally provoking the Philippines here I I I they’re definitely intentionally provoking the Philippines I mean that is their uh that’s their operations but I think uh if you look at Chinese uh National interest these other Wars are very much in their National interest to keep going now whether they actually had a role in starting these things or instigating these things I want to give some credit to Chinese intelligence I don’t think they were ignorant of what was going on uh prior to this they’re simply too well- ingrained uh within that uh what’s often called an axis if you will uh or is a uh my old boss uh former secretary defense uh retired Marine General Jim Mattis uh calls it a a Chinese Le access that includes Russia Iran and North Korea uh it it if you look at it that way then you’d say from an intelligence standpoint that China is very cognizant of not just what’s happening but cognizant of things that are going to happen and if you look at their role uh working uh with Iran certainly their their huge role working with North Korea and then you look at what North Korea was doing in in providing missiles to uh to Iran uh if you look at what Russia is doing now with North Korea and you look at what China’s doing with Russia and all of these things it really is an an intertwined relationship on many different levels the thing for us though we have to look at is the South China Sea it’s it’s a huge amount I mean most of the maritime Commerce uh of the world travels through the South China Sea uh 44% of Maritime container traffic travels through that that small uh Taiwan straight to give you an idea so it’s a it’s it’s an absolute critical artery if you will for global trade and if the South China Sea is blocked then you have this this very circuitous thing where they have to go around uh shipping would have to go around uh Australia adding phenomenal amounts of ton miles and and by the way I should mention with the Red Sea and the houie rebels uh that that has had disruptive effect I mean that’s about 15% of Maritime shipping goes through there but with that that is added 5% to Global what they call Ton miles which is um you know basically cargo and the number of miles it has to do 5% is a very significant impact to the Global Market Hell definitely want to unpack in Greater detail all of this economic consequence and the economic impact of these shipping trade routes being impacted but before we do that you mentioned a few minutes ago that you think that this could potentially be instigated by the Chinese to some degree that these other conflicts worldwide surely the Chinese know about them but you impli that they may also be more active in them than that would initially appear can you elaborate on that m Michelle that’s been a a kind of working hypothesis did uh did China instigate these uh it’s not clear if they instigated them uh did they help orchestrate these well China has a fairly DEA hand how they do these things and uh both these things are things we can’t discount you know did they did they have a role in uh starting up what happened uh on October 7th um you know there’s been nothing to show what they did w were they aware of what could happen on October 7th beforehand that’s a distinct possibility we we have to recognize that’s that’s very possible certainly if you look at what happened up in Ukraine it’s pretty clear that that X knew before The Invasion that that was going to happen you know Putin actually went to Beijing as you recall um they you know they they had the the whole Olympic thing it looked like they had basically held off on The Invasion until the Olympics were done the Winter Olympics and then they went ahead and and did The Invasion and that looked very orchestrated and there that there’s been a lot of discussion about that uh that that was pretty clear that g knew what was going to happen there um obviously he didn’t try to talk Putin out of it uh clearly because that’s um you know it it did happen it did occur um this all helps G and it helps with his specific uh specific strategy if you will if the United States is drawn into other conflicts elsewhere in the world uh and if you want to go back to World War II uh that’s kind of what happened you know I wouldn’t say that you know Germany uh certainly knew that Japan was looking at uh attacking Pearl Harbor that’s been fairly well documented uh and for the US to be divided between you know two Wars if you will would would help either side because of uh what was going on so it’s not a New Concept is to uh divide and conquer if you will and uh now you have the US you know supporting Ukraine supporting uh obviously supporting Israel uh but but supporting Israel and and and basically supporting a much broader strategy throughout the Middle East that includes the Red Sea as well as long and also you know with the presence of US forces in places like Iraq and Syria and elsewhere so uh all of this takes away resources that could be dedicated to the Pacific that could be used for deterrence uh against what China is doing on the water and China is certainly fully aware of what they’re doing there and and and probably orchestrating uh a good deal of this more than than what we know all right so let’s now elaborate on the import of this as a shipping area what uh according to the UN back in 2016 around 21% of all global trade went through the South China Sea uh you have more updated figures and again that was back in 2016 as you mentioned now they’re major disruptions to other shipping and trade routes with the Red Sea disrupted by the Iranian back tuties firing missiles rather indiscriminately the Russia Ukraine war obviously causing Global Supply Chain issues so help us understand exactly how crucial the South China Sea route is now to global Shipping and trade well most of the shipping um and depending on how you look at it you could look at it in terms of gross tons you could look at number of certainly container traffic uh but also you have to look at tanker traffic uh and I say that with uh uh gas and oil uh traffic across the board uh when you look at it it’s a phenomenal impact you literally most of the shipping goes through the South China Sea from an economic standpoint point now different categories have different levels uh that they look at but if you certainly look at container shipping that is a that that is a preponderance of of stuff that’s impacted by what’s happening in the South China Sea I’d also also remind everybody the South China Sea uh also is right next to the Sea of Japan uh and of course that that is a a much you know you have a basically a larger total water weight that could be impacted by a potential conflict with China it’s not just uh that one section of the of the water you know Japan is very much leaning into this looking at what could happen how disruptive that could be and it’s not just uh stuff that goes through the South China Sea it’s not just material that comes from China or from Taiwan that could be disrupted it’s also the total impact it would have on on places like Japan and hence Japan has literally broken out of uh decades you know literally since World War II of of a a a more passive stance if you will from a defense standpoint to a much more active and aggressive stance uh with that right now uh they are signing an a mutual uh was essentially a mutual defense agreement with the Philippines uh which is rather interesting when you look at the history of Japan and the Philippines and certainly the history of World War II they are they’re having an agreement to support each other uh in defense matters and that is all aimed at uh dealing with this uh overarching threat of China in the South China Sea and that is what Japan recognizes now I I actually was stationed in a part of Japan okanawa uh that is in the South China Sea that’s one of the reasons that we’ve always had a a presence there for quite some time and uh so I’m very familiar with this I was I was literally in uh Asia when they uh when the Philippine uh Philippine Navy grounded uh the Sierra Madre that ship I talked about at the second Thomas SCH I think it was in 1989 so I’m very familiar with with some of the history there that goes back the difference is what China has done to its Navy which is vastly expanded and what they’re doing uh sort of almost this hybrid Warfare stand uh with their uh Coast Guard in the South China Sea so a lot of uh very intentional movements and provocations that have a far-reaching history how would a conflict there now though increase Global Supply Chain issues I mean what would that mean for various economic regions for various Goods I mean surely this would create more inflation you know worldwide and and certainly here in the US help us understand why you think that this is potentially so crippling to the global economy and very detrimental to the to the US if conflicts there escalate even short of a fuller conflict just even if there’s continued skirmishes you know a lot of times people think of China they think of the made in China you know the manufactured goods and certainly that is significant I mean there’s a lot of goods if you go to any uh Big Box store for example and look at the number of things made in China you quickly realize that’s a large part of the inventory that they carry so literally store shelves will start going uh empty but it’s also much bigger than that if you look at semiconductors which is huge in Taiwan semiconductors uh which in certain categories controls up to 80% of the semiconductor uh industry or Market if you will um that would be shut down uh completely uh certainly any semiconductors coming from China uh would be shut down but it would have phenomenal disruption of of the supply chain around the world because it’s difficult to think of anything these days that has any electronic components to include cars or anything else that isn’t reli Reliant upon semiconductors and so would be massively disruptive despite a lot of what what’s called near Shoring trying to bring some of that semiconductor manufacturing capability to the US that is it’s still not caught up yet to uh make make up for the uh uh potential uh deficit in that in that availability uh in that area also in rare earth if you look at China they they actually do mine a lot of rare earth they have a very substantial capability of that but they really have a huge cap ability in processing and this is after Decades of subsidizing their uh their rare herse industry they knocked out uh rare herse uh production capacity in other countries simply because they were cheaper and they made it that way they took advantage of their WTO status and uh and they they basically did some very predatory marketing if you will around the world to Corner that market now we’re all dependent upon them for certain rare Earths that are absolutely vital for High-Tech manufacturing that would get shut down and that’s not something that that could be turned on somewhere else quickly that takes years and years and years to build that capability up we recognize that other countries have recognized that they’re trying to Nearshore uh the mining they’re trying to Nearshore the uh the uh production if you will the uh refining um of the of these various different near earth materials or I’m sorry rare earth materials but uh but with that it’s going to take a while to catch up and and lithium is also another area uh you know with lithium batteries it’s it’s not so much what China produces it’s what China controls and and China is not just operating in China they have uh huge interest catl for example has huge interests with the lithium supply chain all around the world going into the Pacific region uh across the board but also actually some of the stuff they’re doing much closer to home uh in South America they have a a huge thing in fact we just saw that there was a coup attempt in Bolivia so they have this this critical position with the lot of this and by the way when they take that lithium out they send it across the Pacific and that’s where they actually process that to create stuff that they can export everywhere uh so it it’s a supply chain lock that they have if the South China Sea if the Sea of Japan is uh is tied up with a major war all of that supply chain will be massively disrupted we’ll have mass just overwhelming inflation it’s tough to even say what that would look like because the second third order effects but there would be huge disruption to the global Marketplace does it have to be an overwhelming war or is it enough that there is conflict there much like we have in the Red Sea where it’s just making it more difficult for ships to to go through and to operate as they would normally when you have that a route blocked or problematic combined with increased tensions and conflicts in the South China Sea area and Sea of Japan again not necessarily a full out War but just increased tensions is is that enough to have a big economic impact Michelle that’s an excellent point and and that’s a great question uh in fact that’s one of the big scenarios they’re looking at for Taiwan which is uh rather than trying to do an amphibious invasion of Taiwan which is very problematic as you know I kind of have a background with amphibious operations and uh very familiar with it uh in World War II uh the US had looked at going into uh what was then called fosa which is Taiwan we didn’t do it and part of it is because it’s such a difficult place to conduct amphibious operation so that’s not a foregone conclusion that China would go that option but one of the ones that is is before them one of the things that they’ve clearly been rehearsing over and over again in various areas around Taiwan is setting up a potential Naval blockade not not too different from what the US did with Cuba during the Cuban Missile Crisis but to set up a a huge Naval blockade and then the question is what do we do are we going to risk a an allout War to block a naval blockade and by by way it could be a limited blockade they may not block everything they may just block some things uh and so with that we’re going to have to figure out would we be would the US instigate this or or or I should say would we would we accelerate this into a a full uh kinetic confrontation uh you know it certainly be a huge escalation if we did do we want to be the first ones to you know pull the trigger if you will uh would Taiwan respond with Kinetic means would they use anti-ship missiles or anti-air missiles to block this thing uh there’s a lot of scenarios there which kind of fall into that lower threshold if you will not quite complete allout War but setting up the circumstances where it’s right on that border between going to allout war and of course once that’s crossed then everything I just talked about kind of kicks in right and then as you said just that is enough to create major economic disruptions to Global Supply chains increasing costs of good every costs of goods everywhere uh and many countries already dealing with very high levels of inflation certainly here in the US H you mentioned this Japan potentially having a defense Packa with the Philippines we know that the US has a defense PCT with the Philippines now sometimes the concern with these defense packs is that an incident int ition Al started unintentionally escalates to a level that then these defense packs get triggered right that you know Chinese co- godod may take some action uh against the Philippines as they’re trying to assert strength and dominance but that’s somehow due to some potential like Rogue uh players gets out of hand it escalates much more than intentioned and before you know it you have a bigger situation that then potentially triggers these defense packs with other countries how much are we at risk of something like that happening and what would that mean of course well it could mean uh obviously it could drag us into uh what some might call World War III uh if it if it you know the the pendulum you know the if basically all the pieces started uh you know falling into place where triggered M Mutual defense backs now what we don’t have in the Pacific is something like NATO NATO is kind of interesting in Europe of course it’s you know 30 some Nations and uh all basically tied together uh saying an attack on one is an attack on all that’s not the same thing in the Pacific what you have in the Pacific is a series of bilateral agreements between countries you know the US has a bilateral agreement with Japan we have a bilateral agreements with uh with South Korea uh certainly with the Philippines as mentioned uh you know our relation ship with Australia New Zealand is very very close has always been very close they’re also part of What’s called the five eyes which are countries that have a uh a a a heightened intelligence sharing uh intelligence cooperation Arrangement that goes back before literally World War II so uh so that you do have a series of bilateral agreements um which potentially could trigger and of course the the example being World War I where basically you know you’d have one agreement you know basically an assassination that took place you know uh in the Balkans triggered a series of things that led to World War I and that’s uh and and of course that’s the great fear is that the US gets pulled into you know a kinetic uh attack or kinetic confrontation with China do the Philippines and then uh China responds in some ways and triggers our agreement with Japan or something like that and next thing you know you got all the countries in there basically pulled into a big military confrontation a big war if you will across the board that that’s possible I would point out one thing though with the Philippines uh president Marcos uh is is a different president he’s definitely not president duterte uh thank goodness and uh president Marcos uh with that recent confrontation or or you know the basically where the uh uh almost lost his thumb or I’m not sure he may he may eventually lose it but uh in that confrontation there uh he was quick to immediately come out and make a public statement saying this does not trigger uh the mutual defense agreement with the us we do not see this as a confrontation that’s at that level and and he’s been uh very careful about making that very clear uh as to what is triggering what or what is not triggering what and that’s probably not something that’s done in isolation I have no doubt that there’s a lot of discussion between the US between Washington DC and with uh with Manila uh when something like this happens and certainly we are monitoring very closely everything that happens in the South China Sea so it’s not like we’re taking a reactive stance and staying back you know I mean if something happens there boom everybody’s immediately on the phones or or or on a you know video conferencing or whatever trying to work out you know what will be the statements what will be the reaction what do we do what do we don’t do so that’s something that’s being uh actively worked all the time but the scenario you talk about the cascading effect if you will uh that is a that is a serious consideration and uh and I would say if you’re at a indo Pacific command in Honolulu that’s something they walk in every day and they’re looking at what could trigger what well with all due respect um to that sailor who lost his thumb or may lose his thumb I mean that doesn’t seem as though that that is something of significant consequence to trigger a bigger retaliation or escalation and I get that that’s a symptom of of a trend that’s ongoing so it brings the question then is it more likely hell that that that this just passes we do know that the Philippines and China held talks on the South China Sea today on Tuesday uh they did they didn’t reach any real agreement on how to prevent a similar altercation like the one uh earlier in June but they did agree on the need to restore trust and rebuild confidence and better manage Maritime disputes uh but then at the same time the Philippines Department of Foreign Affairs issued a statement saying that it will be quote Relentless in protecting interests and upholding its sovereignty Sovereign rights and jurisdiction in the west Philippine Sea which is obviously what um Manila uses to refer to the waters within its exclusive economic zone but isn’t it just more likely that this just passes rather than escalates dramatically it it could slow down for a while I I think this meeting that they just had and uh you know first off it was you know classic sort of diplomatic language that didn’t really say a lot other than that we’re going to meet we’re going to confer we’re going to try and deescalate these things we’re going to make sure that they don’t uh you know blow up into something else it was it was basically an agreement to say look let’s try and uh you know Tamp this down a little bit if you will to uh to keep this thing from getting worse uh at the same time uh the Philippines made it very clear you know they have their territorial Waters they have their exclusive economic zone they have the uh you know the international Court uh ruling on this in 2016 as far as that goes and they’re not going to you know there’s diplomatic side but there’s also you know making a very clear aser position side at the same time if you’ve been looking at The Language by China uh they too have been saying oh we’d like to see some uh you know more coordination if you will or more discussion but at the same time they have not backed down on their claims of uh of of waters uh either in the in and by way I was recently in the uh in the Philippines for a couple weeks uh and I will say that when you’re there it is the West Philippine Sea there is no further discussion on that it’s very clear as to what that body of water is that’s what it’s called there they recognize that China has another name for it and some maps have mistakenly called it the South China Sea but they always say no that is the West Philippine Sea they’re very clear about that right and look lots of uh countries have claims to parts of the South China SE Taiwan being one of them and there was uh an altercation there between a Chinese Coast Guard ship detaining a Taiwanese fishing boat uh not too long ago and its crew members and in response Taiwan mobilized two coast God vessels that led to a standoff with four Chinese ships uh and and Chinese and Taiwanese tensions have risen quite dramatically since s chinte was elected as the new president of Taiwan in January because Beijing views him as pushing more aggressively for Taiwanese Independence China considers Taiwan a renegade Province so you you take all of these factors into consideration and the point that you made uh earlier hell and that is that you know the US is pretty distracted with all of these conflicts in the Middle East in Russia Ukraine spread very very thin and some analysts including some guests on this show have implied that the opportune time to strike from China’s perspective or take action against Taiwan or take more aggressive action in the South China Sea would be right before the US elections given the division and the chaos of the political situation in the US and what many perceive to be the Biden administration’s weakness on the world stage and very significantly the US stretched thin with all of these conflicts you alluded to that earlier do you think that China may take some kind of action this year or continue to play the longer game well they they’ve always played the long game and and so I I don’t I don’t discount that but I do agree with many that we need to be looking at the coming months uh you’re absolutely correct uh with this election coming up uh that fact that’s something we look at with virtually every major president presidential election uh is that is a time of vulnerability it’s a time of transition if somebody’s going to try and do something uh a foreign actor uh like China that’s the opportune time to do it you know uh as as you mentioned the term distraction uh certainly the election distracts uh the entire United States and to and honestly it distracts the rest of rule too because they’re paying very close attention to what’s happening here and so it is a a a time of ability or a window of vulnerability in terms of our ability to react uh despite the fact and certainly any comb Commander around the world would say look we’re always leaning forward we have our plans in place we have our we know we’re supposed to do of things happen so they would not say that they’re you know not prepared for whatever is happening but it’s not just distraction it’s also the strain on resources you know we only have so many ships we only have so many planes so many troops you know uh we’re having to position stuff in the in the Red Sea in the Gulf of Aiden certainly stuff that we didn’t have to think about putting there uh say a year ago we weren’t we didn’t have nearly that big of a presence in fact our presence there was was fairly small because uh frankly the Somali pirate uh threat had been pretty much dissipated by that point so we were able to put a lot more resources into uh into the uh South China Sea into uh I should say the West Pacific in general uh our presence there was much greater and now that’s being divided between you know what’s called indopacific command which has the West Pacific and Central Command which has things like Yemen and and certainly um you know dealing with issues in uh uh with Lebanon Israel uh certainly with the Gaza Strip and uh obviously anything in the Persian Gulf to include Iraq and then looking up into Syria so you have two combatant command ERS both of whom probably want more resources and that limits our ability to respond to other places and and when things happen particularly when you’re dealing with uh ships it’s not like you can just turn around and and and move on a dime it takes a while to move a task force or a ship you know halfway around the world and and those so those are some of the things that they’re having to deal with right now right um H you mentioned the presidential elections uh and there was quite a strong comment during uh the debate between former president Trump and President Biden uh regarding all of these geopolitical hotpots that seem to have uh flourished shall we say uh under the Biden Administration let’s take a listen to what uh former president Trump had to say about that and the prospect of President Biden bringing the us closer to a global World War these are Wars that will never with him he will drive us into World War II and we’re closer to World War II than anybody can imagine we are very very close to World War II and he’s driving us there so well president former president Trump uh known to be a tad hyperbolic known to exaggerate but does he have a point there do you think we are closer to World War II than before I I think uh uh you know a lot of a lot of experts a lot of senior leaders around the world think that uh the chance of uh what would effectively be World War II if the war breaks out in the Pacific you just look at the geography it’s like okay now we’re tied up with Wars all around the world uh that would be uh that big and then of course the uh the issue is what would happen with Ukraine if the US resources are pulled into uh dealing with this what would be a huge conflict in the Pacific what is our ability to support these other two Wars how would we be constrained and would that embolden Russia to do something else you know I just uh I just was recently in U uh Estonia uh a little bit before that I was in Lithuania uh I look at the Baltic states certainly the Baltic states have been very very uh vocal about uh they their perception of the Russian threat which has always been there they’ve been taking uh some very significant measures to try and improve their own defensive capabilities there but they recognize that uh an aggressive uh Russia on the war path if you will if successful in Ukraine will not stop there uh Putin has made it very clear that he wants to basically recreate the Russian Empire I’m not going to say the Soviet Union per se but he definitely wants to recreate what he sees as the Russian Empire and part of that is taking the Baltic states and so all those countries uh in that region are are very much uh concerned that that they are vulnerable to attack if the US is tied up with a major war in the Pacific that’s potentially less resources that could go to uh defending our our NATO allies and um and and so that makes them even more nervous and so by that by that and by the way once Russia crosses in or attacks a NATO country that triggers Article Five an attack on one is an attack on all and at that point by definition you have got World War III uh that basically you got two big segments of the world going on I’m not saying something would happen in the Western Hemisphere but you know who knows what would happen with Cuba and Venezuela uh if something like that was going on whatever machinations they might choose to do and certainly uh Venezuela might see a good reason to go into that part of Guyana that they’ve been claiming at the same time so you could actually end up having a number of things uh tick off around the world uh which would certainly meet that definition of a number a number of conflicts tick off around the world and the South China see being the potential Tinder Box a potential that’s the center of gravity as certainly if you look at the the big threat the one that that impacts markets where the US probably has uh the biggest financial interest overall uh that is uh basically the South China Sea and what’s happening in the West specific it’s not that we’re not concerned about these other parts of the world we are and we are very much engaged there but certainly from an economic standpoint um you know the Middle East is big but um but but frankly uh you know looking at certainly the area uh you know Israel is is a is a critical Ally uh certainly the countries around it are are are also some are important allies Syria not so much uh but uh but we have a long-standing relationship we have a very close relationship with Saudi Arabia across the board but if you look at the impact it’s going to have on uh the US markets um a a major war across the Middle East is big but a a major war in the West Pacific uh has a a probably bigger potential one thing I might mention though if there is that war in the Pacific you kind of have to go back to the Middle East and say okay what is Iran thinking about doing now what might they decide to do now and uh and that’s a big concern as well right because as you discussed with these various points of conflict and commotion serving as a distraction and draining resources dividing focus and attention it does then allow for other players to seize the opportunity and act and for players like Iran maybe even Venezuela to be emboldened and take action that they may not have taken otherwise but then they see the opportunity and as you say because the South China Sea is so important economically intensified conflicts even skirmishes that could force the US in even if it doesn’t really want to be involved especially at this time but hell if China isn’t going to really intentionally really push and really escalate you could still have a scenario develop that forces the US in so what kind of scenario could unwittingly drag the US in you know a potential scenario uh in the South China see for example uh what if the uh Chinese Coast Guard was to stop another resupply mission to the you know Sierra mod rate uh and what if they did what they did last time where they were uh they were actually blocking a medical evacuation of somebody who who needed to get out of there they literally were were blocking the evacuation itself putting someone’s uh life at risk and that was one where you know it it was depending on which which side talks about you know whether the guns are drawn or whether they had their hands on their weapons it’s not quite clear but if that thing had gone to Small Arms firing you know that could escalate into one of the vessels decided they’re going to use one of their larger deck guns if you will to resolve this issue okay now you’ve got deck guns being used potentially you could see where they would call in uh larger forces to reinforce their position uh with that next thing you know you got yourself a major uh confrontation at se now whether that could be you know that that could be cauterized if you will uh stopped right there and diplomatic stuff steps in uh not quite clear but that is how something like that could quickly escalate from something involving uh Personnel in small boats or smaller boats on the sea to something involving larger ships that could eventually involve more forces uh coming in to do this and depending on how it went uh you know if China wanted to push the point even further they could say we’re not backing down this is this is our c space we uh we own it we control it and uh you know the Philippines doesn’t back down now the Philippines doesn’t have uh the size of forces or the composition of forces where they can go toe-to-toe uh with them but eventually you could see where that potentially could escalate into to a larger confrontation I I would say in any of those steps you would see certainly uh many attempts to build diplomatic off-ramps but that is a big fear and of course the big concern is that you can build the Diplomatic off-ramps but if one of the players does not want to get off get off they’re going to keep going that direction you know China could decide nope this is it we’ve decided we’re going to push this thing uh all the way and that’s where you can end up having a a major confrontation uh in the South China Sea involving the Philippines which could potentially uh trigger our our mutual defense agreement with them uh and certainly that might be a time that China says as long as we’re dealing with this maybe and then everybody’s distracted with that maybe this is the time to uh you know do something uh in militarily with Taiwan uh and that’s how these things can escalate into larger conflicts right and large conflicts seem more likely when you have growing defense pacts and alliances around the world and I want to go back to another development you’ve touched on and that’s this potential alliance between Russia China North Korea and Iran and to that end there’s been a development there’s been a more formal agreement now made between Russia’s President Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un a couple of weeks ago Putin visited Kim Jong-un and they signed a mutual defense pact for Mutual military assistance if either country is attacked uh strengthening their defense cooperation and expanding trade and investment high so this could bring North Korea in here and this PCT also makes it even more difficult to now stop North Korea’s nuclear Ambitions which include ballistic missiles capable of reaching the continental US and Putin also suggested the possibility of supplying North Korea with high Precision weapons in response to the west and military aid that’s been given to Ukraine and you know how this agreement is reminiscent of Cold War alliances so how do you see this factoring in here you I mean you could say that it’s not a coincidence that this is happening you have defense packs being signed on both sides uh you know chest pieces are being moved into position on both sides of the board and we’re seeing more clear lines of Divisions with a bifurcation of the world allies and axis I mean of course depending on one’s perspective what do you make of this hell yeah you know I would I would be remiss if I didn’t say it’s kind of interesting Putin goes to uh you know to Pyongyang to meet with Kim Jong-un and they have you know the big ceremonies and all the flags waving and everything else which is kind of what they do in North Korea anytime somebody comes in there all right uh it’s very orchestrated uh across the board one of course one of the things is it kind of codified what’s reality which is that North k Korea is pulling a lot of its old war stocks a lot of its old ammunition and they’re shipping it uh huge amounts uh mostly by train some by ship but mostly by train uh across to support Russia’s war and in Ukraine uh there’s been you know photographic imagery if you will uh of uh of some of the ammunition and you can clearly see it’s North Korean ammunition being loaded into uh uh Russian weapon systems that’s being used now there is a kind of big side of this which is a lot of that ammunition is sold that a lot of it’s defunct it’s it’s not it’s not very accurate some of it actually explodes in the artillery tubes um so it’s not the best quality ammunition across the board but that’s something they’re saying what the concern is is what will Russia give North Korea in return and that has huge strategic import uh North Korea uh as we all know has uh nuclear weapons capabilities they’ve been they were doing underground test for quite quite some time their nuclear program has been only improving uh over time also their ballistic missile capabilities have been improving dramatically it’s believed they have a ballistic missile that might have a range of 15,000 kilometers they could literally launch a missile from uh from North Korea and it could cover pretty much most of the conell US it could potentially hit uh Washington DC with a warhead what they don’t have is they don’t have a an RV or re-entry vehicle that uh is is an absolutely crucial part of that delivery chain where when it comes into the atmosphere you have to have a re-entry vehicle that will go through the atmosphere not bounce on the atmosphere um that that won’t destroy the Warhead as it’s coming through the atmosphere and put that Warhead where they intend to deliver it that’s technology they don’t have that’s technology the Russia has had for a very very long time and the fear is that they might give them that missing piece of technology they need to create that credible nuclear Threat all of a sudden the US isn’t just concerned about North Korea launching missiles in the Pacific they’re concerned that North Korea could have the capability to launch missiles much much further uh into the continental US uh that’s a big big concern that changes a lot of our what are we doing in terms of our anti-missile capability a lot of different things across the board uh which goes to the amount of instability that we see across the world and then of course if there is a uh a war in the Pacific what would North Korea do uh Kim Jong-un I don’t think is one of the more stable International actors if you will uh and uh whereas he doesn’t have tremendous uh uh really highgrade uh conventional capabilities like he used to have uh that’s another fear is he’s going to get uh some improved conventional capabilities to improve those old tanks and armored vehicles and artillery that they’ve had for well decades and decades uh they go back to literally his grandfather’s time if you will um but the fear is that that Kim Jong-un might do something on the on the border he might do something to South Korea it might involve weapons of mass destruction like chemical weapons or something like that and of course the the thing he would often hold out there is if there’s a big response he says I’ve got nuclear weapons that uh that that you know would keep anybody from coming into North Korea well that gets to be a little bit bigger if they have a nuclear weapon that could possibly reach the continental United States and cause Devastation here you just you kind of go through all these things and you realize this this thing could escalate in ways that uh that just simply weren’t there uh a few years back and that’s a big concern right uh and in terms of alliance es Not only was Kim Yun meeting with Putin but Putin is uh expected to hold talks uh with Xi Jinping and turkey’s erdogan this week uh meetings uh with the Chinese and the Turkish presidents uh during the summit of the Shanghai cooperation organization in aana that’s at least according to the Russian State News Agency last time Putin met with she was in may he visited China on his first foreign trip after being inaugurated for a fifth as Russia’s president and uh we know that the Shanghai coroporation organization is very important political economic International Security and defense organization established by China and Russia in 2001 does that organization seem to be getting more momentum in your opinion hell you know I’ve been looking at the the Shanghai cooperation uh as as something that’s kind of interesting you know it’s been going on for quite some time and uh and it has a different group of players uh it kind of reminds me of of of brick or bricks or or you know which seems to be getting bigger and bigger uh certainly beyond the the you know the four original uh main players uh but with that then there’s other groupings as well you know the quad uh much talked about informal grouping uh with India the US Australia and Japan uh that’s become a grouping that uh primarily was focused on uh more more Trading issues and then it became more of a military type of thing uh interestingly enough uh that’s been talked about there’s also a grouping of nations in the in the Pacific itself uh called the squad not to be confused with what’s going on not I’d be confused with Congress the US Congress and that particular Squad uh but that’s another grouping we see that that’s taking place and all of these are are happening at the same time now one thing I would point out with with president Eran and turkey you know he maintains Communications with certainly all of his neighbors and uh Russia is a neighbor and and he maintains Communications and he’s been playing a a a critical role in uh in being a kind of a goet if you will and working out various Arrangements uh with the war in Ukraine uh and and turkey has actually taken right now has taken lead on a uh uh three three country NATO task force which is uh clearing mines in the Black Sea to enable uh greater transport of things like grain coming down from Ukraine uh so when you see these meetings I also look at the other side which is you know that’s that’s communication uh that’s diplomacy but there’s the other side which is real world you know what are they doing on the water in the Black Sea region that is you know you know that is such a critical uh uh Waterway if you will uh to what’s going on and and if you look at what turkey’s doing there uh you see where they’re taking a very substantive leadership position they’re putting their their own uh forces uh into action to do something about that so that’s that’s a pretty important thing that that we need to keep in mind in that regard so they’ve been doing some pretty important stuff yeah uh pretty important stuff yet another flash point uh globally hell as we start a wrap up here would have to get your thoughts on the likelihood of an escalation between hisbah and other Iranian backed terrorist proxy and Israel hisbah has been firing Rockets into Israel the day after the October 7th attacks when Hamas uh invaded Israel and triggered Israel’s retaliation with the war on Gaza that conflict still ongoing and now the hisbah Israeli conflict seems to be escal in with civilians from both Israel’s North and Lebanon South being evacuated the US and Europe urging restraints from both sides where do you see this happening where do you see this going well right now it appears to be going toward what will probably be a a a full War a complete second front on that uh Northern Frontier or that northern border if you will uh there’s just there’s not the deescalation uh on on you know certainly from h bah side you don’t you’re just not seeing deescalation one of the things Hezbollah said is that they they you know when October 7th happened they they they joined in with uh basically launching uh strikes across the border causing a mass evacuation of uh of Israelis that lived up near the Lebanese border they had to pull back uh and uh of course there’s been a lot of destruction of towns there’s been fires there’s been all kinds of things and of course Israel has responded with uh with strikes up north hting HB positions and there’s have to be some evacuation of those living in in the southern Lebanon region Lebanon itself of course is at a very delicate uh socioeconomic precipice because a few years back their economy essentially collapsed it’s been half of what it was some years ago a lot of that triggered with that massive explosion in Beirut with the port which I would point out that that particular Warehouse that exploded with what looked like a small nuclear bomb going off was actually controlled by Hezbollah that little political Nuance is not missed by anybody in Lebanon by the way they all recognize that um but there is great fear that if there is a another war between Hezbollah and uh and Israel that it could literally just you know cause massive Devastation to the remaining uh socio socioeconomic fabric if you will of Lebanon uh turning Lebanon into what would vely be considered a failed state if you will so that’s a big concern I just don’t know where the offramp is because Hezbollah has said as long you know once there’s a ceasefire once uh you know there there’s a a permanent ceasefire if you will certainly uh in uh in the Gaza Strip with theas they’re going to stop uh firing into Israel well the problem with that is that they could always turn it back on and that doesn’t really solve the long-term threat issue that that Hezbollah poses to Israel with 150,000 missiles supplied by Iran that they have poised ready to rain down on Israel they could overwhelm the Iron Dome air defense system so Israel is at a strategic uh crossroads right now as to what it does and and certainly Hamas is not accepting of The Proposal that’s on the table right now and Israel has pretty much cleared most of the Hamas controlled territory down there which means you may never see a ceasefire put in place because frankly there may not be really much of Hamas left to agree to a ceasefire by the time it comes about you have to look at where things are on the ground which leads to well will Hezbollah continue firing into Israel and by the way will the houthis then continue to uh cause all the problems that their causing in the Red Sea Bob elmb straight and the Gulf of Aiden and the answer to the both of those is probably yes which means that we’re looking for a more protracted conflict that could escalate into something much much bigger than it is right now by the way Iran and it’s tough to say because they they don’t have unlimited capabilities uh and that that strike they did against Israel with the 300 missiles and drones really didn’t have a whole lot of effect um in terms of actually impacting on Israel uh but some did make it through however Iran has said that if there is a uh a a full-on war uh with Hezbollah that they’re going to weigh in uh and uh you know join that war in some way shape or form we’re already seeing some of the uh Iranian proxies in Iraq and presumably Syria um making their way into Hezbollah controlled territory in southern Lebanon to provide additional forces there and it could be a rather substantial number by the time it’s all said and done so what what could happen is you see a much broader conflict with with implications flash points if you will that go well beyond just on leanon right um as we said no shortage of Tinder boxes that can really explode and escalate around the world and then you know when you put it in the context of various conflicts happening around the world with various alliances you could even say that we’re at the beginning of of a World War I not that I want to use that term lightly and as you mentioned hell with these distractions with the resources spread thin the South China Sea May then be ripe for a major disruption as China short of going into uh Taiwan necessarily creates a bigger military blockade there and lays a stronger claim to that region which is why you said at the top of this interview that you think that that is the biggest geopolitical threat and the one that’s most being ignored if I may rephrase you that correctly you know it’s interesting you see World War II because uh we say it rather hesitatingly because of all the implications of what that could mean certainly uh with the with the threat of you know the ultimate threat would be an apocalyptic doomsday scenario with nuclear missiles flying back and forth across oceans and continents but uh but it’s interesting there’s a webinar I do with critical infrastructure across the country we originally started talking about this it was a Ukraine update and then it was kind of grew into certainly you know beyond Ukraine update into looking at Israel Hamas um and eventually we started calling it um a global threat update and we started tagging with a world of wars and whereas we’re not in World War III we’re definitely in a world of Wars now whether those things merge into one larger conflict that’s the big concern you know and and also the concern is when you look at the Players uh the networking the linkages who they’re associated with who they’re being supported by you see where there is this truly this axis if you will of countries you know uh as General Mattis or former SE def Mattis says a Chinese Le access of Russia Iran North Korea I I think we’re going to have to start thinking in those sorts of geostrategic terms and I think we’re going to have to view the world and look at these conflicts in those sorts of terms that when Iran is is you know launching a series of conflicts throughout the Middle East well is it just Iran or is it that larger axis that we’re really looking at and that’s one of the big changes by wait changes that has enormous implications on the global supply chain on global trade and our access to critical materials and manufactured goods not to mention the markets where we sell our own Goods right so hell I mean we’ve discussed uh these shifts from a global monetary perspective many times on Kitco and the bifurcation of the global monetary system with similar players taking uh sides of being pro dollar or against dollar but just to bring it back to a financial angle you’re seeing these developments uh you’re a Financial Risk planner and consultant tremendous background as a former Marine intelligence officer not a portfolio manager mind you but how are you positioning your portfolio your assets what makes sense to someone like you when you’re seeing the the the chess pieces move on the board as they are right now I would say you got to look where uh companies are positioned uh where they’re invested uh there’s a lot of larger companies that have huge uh uh huge vulnerability if you will and I call it vulnerability uh with what they put into China you know one time offshoring into China was you know going you know Great Guns certainly in the ’90s the O’s into the early teens uh uh putting stuff in China made a lot of sense you know uh certainly Elon Musk has put a lot of manufacturing capability into China Apple is very much invested into China uh a lot of major companies are are fully invested in China and China’s invested the other way that’s starting to change and that’s really shifting I’m I’m big believer in this near Shoring Trend that we’re seeing where we’re bringing manufacturing out of China uh if you look at what’s uh investment uh Capital going into China foreign investment that is all but dried up and I’ll tell you what’s really interesting to me and this just happened the last few weeks is uh over in Italy and you have to remember Italy was one of the you know basically the only EU country that had a substantial belt and Road initiative uh uh program going on within its borders that she has made it very clear that they want to pull out this whole belt and Road initiative uh uh concept Al together so what I’m seeing across the board is if you have a portfolio that’s heavily invested or dependent upon China you might want to relook at it you might want to rethink this uh and you might want to look at the the implicit Supply chains within whatever Enterprise it is or or collection of Enterprises uh that you’re invested in uh one of the things that we talk about with uh with critical infrastructure is to look at the entire supply chain and one of the things we’ve really been making very clear is you have to look at the maritime uh supply chain because a lot of times I got to tell you for decades people were kind of ignoring that it was cheap to to ship by sea uh container ized movement of goods was uh was basically just expanding uh over and over and over again and now we’re seeing things which show the vulnerability of that supply chain for example uh ports in the Pacific like Singapore are backed up they’re having to turn away ships the problem is that now they can’t the ships can’t go through the Red Sea you know that was 15% of of global Maritime trade going through the Red Sea into the Suz Canal over half of that is has dropped off completely and those that go in there have to pay uh huge insurance rates Maritime insurance rates for going through that area so now what you’re seeing is this really long leg Around the Horn of Africa to move Goods that slowed everything down which means a lot of ships are offloading the containers at at ports uh Singapore has basically said look we’re full we can’t take any more containers uh because of that and and waiting and then loading up these ships for these very long legs whereas before they would have sent chips on much shorter legs they would have taken a you know a lower capacity because the leg was much shorter now they’re having to change the entire way they’re doing that that goes to price that goes to availability of goods that goes to um uh how the ports are being used that goes to Ports not just in the Pacific but also in Europe and North America these are things you have to look at and and what you’re investing in how exposed are you to these these critical uh waterways these critical places these critical uh potential battlefields if you will uh in the future right and as we discussed earlier all of these supply chain issues ultimately lead to higher cost of goods higher inflation which makes the case for uh store of value assets like many of our viewers who like gold would say that gold is a store value Asset against inflation or for those that see Bitcoin as digital gold as a store value Asset potentially as well Bitcoin I’ll have to ask you do you own any gold or any Bitcoin I’m actually not invested either which is very strange because uh my father was actually a gold miner of all things um he actually had a a pretty big presence in uh in mining gold in the Western United States for many years uh I think you’re going to see more uh investment in Precious Metals particularly gold uh where I tend to focus more is on things like uh uh lithium and uh look a RAR and some critical materials like nickel and things and and and when I look at that I’m looking at what comes out of Russia uh how much of that market they control and uh and and how the whatever is happening there is impacting on those uh Global Supply chains crypto was interesting I mean look honestly there there are some crypto uh cryptocurrencies that that are not that substantial shall we say and then there’s some like uh certainly Bitcoin which is uh very substantial I should say I’m not invested in Bitcoin but my sons my adult sons are invested in Bitcoin and and some would say that’s maybe a generational thing uh but certainly I’ve been paying attention to this uh ever since it really manifested itself uh certainly we’ve seen a lot of changes in that market a lot uh you know some initial volatility and we all saw what happened you know with the FTX uh which kind of all got our attention but then you’re looking at uh and that’s cryptocurrency not Bitcoin um but if you look at Bitcoin um it’s it’s a very substantial instrument and uh and what’s interesting is some months back I had a very very good discussion with a uh El Salvador government official and you may recall that El Salvador was the first country that actually went to cryptocurrency uh that was the first nation state movement to cryptocurrency in the world um you know they’re working through all the issues of course that go with that but uh but it is fascinating to see how this thing is changing uh across the board and uh and I do think that we’re going to see uh cryptocurrency really start to uh to take off particularly as you’re seeing uh that the US dollar and uh and other currencies are becoming a little it’s changing shall we say I wouldn’t say less stable uh but certainly uh if you look at what Russia’s doing and what China is doing they’re trying to move away from the dollar based system and uh and I think that will open up more opportunities for uh cryptocurrency across the board and certainly uh you know probably the strongest one being Bitcoin right and yes El Salvador first country to declare Bitcoin legal tender and invest Reserve Assets in Bitcoin and so far that uh move seems to be paying off for buele now helpful disclosure to you and to our audience I do own Bitcoin I also own gold physical gold and also have other exposure to Gold via ETFs and miners so like to be fully upfront about that all right Hal as we wrap up here final thoughts I think the final thoughts are we we live in uh as the Chinese would say or the Chinese curse uh says we live in interesting times and uh we do need to stay tuned in to what’s going on around the world um we need to uh be probably more tuned than we’ve ever been and uh this is not the time to pull back I I know there there is a certainly a large body politic uh and it’s and it’s happened in history in the US before with uh you know America First and and certainly no one is saying hey pull back on any of your patriotism by any way shape or form but on the other hand we have to be globally engaged and uh and we have to be leaning forward and I would say everybody just needs to be paying attention to what’s going on and by the way if you think that you know this is not the 1930s we live in a globally integrated economy it’s not it’s not so simple as it was back then and certainly if you look at Financial transactions it’s really not as simple as it was back then and we all need to be aware uh of all how these dots connect if you will uh how these different uh systems if you will uh operate on a global basis well hell as you said like that Chinese curse we are certainly living in interesting times and we appreciate you helping us understand these times and helping us connect some of the dots and then back to the market markets and the economy thank you so much again for your time and for your insights hell Campa we’ll see you again soon thank you Michelle all right and as always thank you to our viewers and a big thanks to our sponsor Swan Bitcoin and just a reminder again to our viewers that do see the long-term potential of Bitcoin and want to invest for their retirement there is an IRA product that Swan Bitcoin office which allows you to invest directly in Bitcoin with your IRA and there’s a way to set it up which is really very simple where you’re basically buying Bitcoin on autopilot and then that allows you to take advantage of dollar cost averaging as you accumulate Bitcoin into your IRA now there’s a link in the description of this video with a special offer for Kitco viewers to help facilitate that process make sure to check that out and as always thank you again for checking out this video if you’re watching us on YouTube make sure to subscribe and leave us your comment we love to hear from you from me Michelle mccor and the rest of the Kido team we’ll see you again soon on the spot with Michelle mccy is brought to you by Swan Bitcoin Swan Bitcoin Ira your legacy your way real Bitcoin not proxies traditional and Roth IRA fast easy setup start now at swan. c/ retire

Michelle Makori, Lead Anchor and Editor-in-Chief at Kitco News, interviews Hal Kempfer, CEO of Global Risk Intelligence & Planning (GRIP) and retired marine intelligence officer, who says there is a significant geopolitical threat, which is not receiving much mainstream attention, and that could spark World War 3. Kempfer breaks down the top geopolitical threats, pointing out that a flare-up could trigger a number of defense pacts. He also explores South China Sea as a critical tinderbox to keep an eye on in the coming months.

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#geopolitics #ww3 #conflicts

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00:00 Coming Up
00:51 Introduction: Rising Global Tensions
03:14 This Geopolitical Risk is Underreported
12:05 Economic Impact of South China Sea Tensions
13:25 China’s Strategic Moves and Global Reactions
17:00 Potential Global Economic Disruptions
27:42 Defense Pacts and Risk of Escalation
38:18 Resource Allocation
39:24 Geopolitical Hotspots
40:24 Potential for World War III
43:03 South China Sea: A Potential Tinderbox
48:36 North Korea’s Alliance with Russia
57:54 Middle East
01:08:45 Global Supply Chain Vulnerabilities
01:10:52 Investment Strategies Amid Global Tensions
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