How The Falin-Kvitsinsky Doctrine Led To War in Europe.

How The Falin-Kvitsinsky Doctrine Led To War in Europe.

can we look for the first sources for the war in Ukraine even back in Soviet times actually we can it was during the final collapse of the Moscow Empire that the Soviet ambassador to the West Germany Valentine Fallin together with then Deputy foreign minister Yuli Kinski developed the doctrine that resulted after a long 32 years in the Russian invasion of Ukraine a Doctrine in which it was the soviet’s favorite tool tanks to be replaced by a more subtle one natural gas welcome to the 20s [Music] report consider leaving aik if you enjoyed the video to a the algorithm global leaders base their decisions on complex calculations probabilities economic conditions and increasingly technological advancements understanding and sometimes predicting dire actions requires developing skills in these critical areas brilliant is the Premier platform for excelling in mathematics data science and computer science Making It the perfect way to achieve this goal unlike traditional learning methods brilliant interactive lessons make learning engaging and effective each course is designed to enhance your problem solving skills crucial not only in geopolitics but in every aspect of life brilliant offers a wide range of courses at various levels making it suitable for everyone one whether you’re just starting out or looking to deepen your expertise enjoy a stress-free learning environment where you can learn at your own pace and comfortably explore new Concepts from programming to probability data analysis and AI brilliant provides numerous courses to expand your Knowledge and Skills experience brilliant’s full potential for 30 days free by visiting brilliant.org Good Times bad times plus get a 20% discount on an annual plan the Federal Republic of Germany under Chancellor Willie brand had a problem on the one hand it belonged to the capitalist Camp led by the United States and reckoned with the threat of World War I against the Soviet block led by the USSR on the other hand it believed all along in the unification of Germany with the German Democratic Republic which remained in the enemy camp the West Germans therefore needed a strategy that would simultaneously bring them closer to gdr be economically viable and at the same time not overly irritate their patrons on the other side of the Atlantic the United States thus was born OST politic whose slogan became vandel dandel change for trade it was a plan to civilize relations with the Soviets through economic cooperation the core of this cooperation however in the hands of the Social Democrat brand became gas on February 1st 1970 West Germany and the Soviets signed an intergovernmental agreement to build the soos gas pipeline the pipeline went into operation in 1973 just as the Middle East oil crisis erupted providing a solid argument for increasing gas supplies from 1 billion to 3 billion cubic m per year critics of Brand’s policies later revealed that his secretary ganter Gama was an agent of the East German service known asazi of course the soviet’s gas cooperation with West Germany did not please the Americans which led to us sanctions in 1982 on the export of technology and equipment needed to build gas pipelines this construction of sanctions was intended to hinder energy projects between the USSR and Western countries however despite the sanctions and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan Germany continued its course of energy reapo with the USSR and the Eastern Block in general in 1982 a contract was signed for the construction of a gas pipeline between Czechoslovakia and West Germany as a part of the Siberian gas pipeline that the Soviets would use to pump gas from their own interior to Western Europe yet just as the Germans had a plan for German Soviet relations so did the Soviets and so just as Soviet and later Russian gas began to flow to Western Europe a strat later called the falling Kinski Doctrine was born what was it based on in a nutshell it can be summed up in the formula gas instead of Tanks Valentine Fallin and Yuli Kinski both Soviet diplomats recognized that the decline of their Empire’s military influence in Central and Eastern Europe could be replaced by influence gained through the use of natural gas the purpose of the doctrine was to block the expansion of so-called hostile alliances which at the time meant NATO and European communities which later became the European Union the near abroad that is the territory of the former Soviet block which the Kremlin considered to be its sphere of influence was to be kept under control despite political changes and natural gas was to serve this Purpose with the fall of the Soviet Union it may have seemed that the whole elaborate plan would come to an end satellite states such as Poland Romania and Czechoslovakia through of the Yoke of Moscow they were joined by former Soviet republics that also sought Independence including Belarus and Ukraine further pushing the new Russian Federation away from the borders of Western Europe however the colapse of the Soviet Union not only failed to slow down fing pinsky’s doctrinal assumptions it actually increased the importance of natural gas in the Russian federation’s foreign policy Moscow even admits in official documents that from its point of view hydrocarbons including gas are a political tool the energy strategy of the Russian Federation until 2020 included provisions on the political importance of energy quote Russia has significant energy resources and a powerful Fuel and energy sector which is the basis for the development of the economy and an instrument of domestic and foreign policy its place in the global energy markets largely determines its geopol political influence end of quote an example of such influence is the construction of the yamal pipeline or rather the yamal Europe pipeline from Russia to Germany via Poland created under the treaty on friendly and good neighborly cooperation of May 21st 1992 and gas prom’s agreement with the Polish Ministry of industry yamal was created by a political decision that was to tie Poland to Russia politically and economically for years and so after the collapse of the Soviets gas was used as an important tool to shape Russia’s foreign policy and in many ways the targets were not just the countries considered hostile gas also became a tool for disciplining regimes subordinate to Moscow one example is the seizure of gas transmission pipelines in Belarus in 2011 in exchange for the canellation of Belarus dead to gaspro In This Way Russia easily deprived Alexander lukashenko regime of its subjectivity in gas policy now all the strings in Belarusian policy are pulled by Vladimir Putin through gas from transgas bellarus and Minsk has no say but perhaps the most electrifying example of the application of the gas instead of Tanks Doctrine was the blow aimed at the den vasel and now country with which Russia is at War Ukraine in November 2013 on the eve of the signing of ke’s Association agreement with the European ion Moscow raised the price of natural gas supplies to Ukraine by 50% overnight from $268 to $400 per 1,000 cubic M and when Ukrainian president Victor yanukovich a Kremlin prot withdrew from the EU agreement moscow’s reward was imminent a further reduction in gas prices from 400 to a preferential $268 plus a $15 billion loan as a bonus despite these developments which should concern Western policy makers natural gas imports from the Russian Federation to the European Union have grown steadily since the collapse of the Soviet Union according to the International Energy agency Europe began the 21st century with about 30% of its gas Imports coming from the Russian Federation that share later dropped to 27% in 2012 but then Rose steadily to 37% in in 2014 when the illegal annexation of Crimea occurred and 47% in 2019 Europe’s mercantilist policies pushed Russia forward and emboldened it to take further Imperial steps inevitably it was also an important motivator for raising the stakes in February 2022 in this way the Russians have managed to make Europe dependent on their gas over the years giving it hope of a cheap so-called transition fuel this is because natural gas can be used to run flexible power plants that work well with the growing number of renewable energy sources photovoltaic panels and wind farms operate according to the weather conditions and therefore have an unstable and eratic Supply gas fired power plants can respond by rapidly ramping up and down their output ensuring the stability of the National Power System the Russians have therefore promoted gas as a transitional fuel to secure the energy transition they have been particularly effective in Germany natural gas was pushed there to such an extent that Berlin decided to completely eliminate another stable and emission free source of electricity nuclear power Germany was to pay for this decision starting February 24th 2022 when it suddenly woke up to very high energy prices and dependence on the most military aggressive regime in Eurasia the Kremlin has also sprinkled its Doctrine in into its soft power activities on which significant resources have been poured prominent examples include the sponsorship of the Sha G and Kiran football club or the Champions League competition as well as the Dakar Car Rally it is no coincidence that during these years the northstream 1 gas pipeline from Russia to Germany was built thanks to the cooperation of gas prom and a number of European companies that decided to join that northstream AG Consortium the rap increase in the share of Russian gas in Europe coincided with the launch of northstream 1 in 2011 its patreons were first Chancellor Gerhard Shredder who today is more associated with Russian lobing through his seats in the supervisory Boards of rosf and GPR and then Chancellor Angela merco who did not block the northstream 2 project considering a purely commercial Venture until Russia’s invasion of Ukraine this created a new Corridor for Russian gas supplies bypassing all of Central and Eastern Europe together with the South Stream project which later became Turkish stream it could have replaced Ukraine’s pipelines even though it delivered a massive 180 billion cubic m per year from Russia however both nordstream and Turkish stream were supposed to provide similar capacity in total and form a kind of encirclement ring to close Ukraine and central eastern Europe from the North and the South it it was supposed to suffocate the Ukraine Transit and lead to its Extinction as long as there was a government in K that was not willing to bow to the Moscow regime meanwhile Germany’s energy transition known as energ vender was to be fueled by cheap gas from Russia but it exposed Germany Europe’s largest economy and with it the entire West to Great political risk which was confirmed in the years of energy crisis beginning in 2021 for in the energy markets the war did not begin in February 2022 but about 8 months before the Russian invasion of Ukraine in mid 2021 an unprecedented anomaly began to appear on the gas market Russia’s gas prom began to reduce its gas supplies in various ways causing gas prices to rise rapidly the Russians shipped the minimum amount of gas stipulated in the contracts and closed market sales they also did not refill the gas storage facilities over which they had control through their shareholdings in such facilities in Austria Germany and the Netherlands normally the gas sector empties its storage facilities during the heating season when demand for the fuel increases it replenishes them in the summer when the price is lower the Russians stopped doing this leaving some storage facilities a dozen per full for the heating season when it should have been 70% or more full thus began the energy crisis guess on The ttf Exchange in the Netherlands valued at 20 to30 at the beginning of 2021 became three times more expensive to about €20 by the end of 2021 the increase in the price of gas spilled over into the energy Market due to the Western Europe’s High dependence on gas fired power generation Energy prices also began to rise rapidly expensive Gas and energy encouraged the use of coal so coal consumption and prices also increased in February 2022 it became clear what the Russians goal was the Russian Federation invaded Ukraine further aggravating the energy crisis by causing Energy prices and raw materials to Skyrocket in this case gas entered the war before Russian tanks gas on the ttf exchange in the Netherlands picked at €350 per megawatt hour more than 10 times more expensive than before the crisis the Russians further reduced the supply of gas in Europe using tricks such as a dispute over payments in Rubles imposed by President Vladimir Putin in violation of contracts customers who didn’t comply such as Bulgaria and Poland had to deal with the interruption of gas supplies from Russia and carry out plans to become independent in an accelerated and crisis mode the Russians also stopped deliveries via nordstream 1 due to a technical break which which they never ended they sanctioned the yamal pipeline in retaliation for the nationalization of gas from Germania in Germany and the seizure of assets of europol gas in Poland this was a form of Defense by these countries to ensure the security of Supply by blocking Russian influence in these operators of key gas pipelines the Russians responded with counter sanctions blocking supplies through yamal in contrast the continued unexplained sabotage of the north stream 1 and northstream 2 pipelines had little impact on the energy crisis northstream 1 stopped deliveries because of a dispute over the ruble while northstream 2 never got off the ground because it was subject to us sanctions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and also failed to receive technical certification in Germany it should be acknowledged that the sabotage in September 20122 ruled out the possibility of using the nor streams for Russian supplies until repairs and Technical inspections which no one in the west is interested in at this stage the sabotage of northstream 1 and two may also be a convenient excuse for gas prom not to pay compensation for unrealized gas deliveries by hiding behind Force measure the purpose of the whole Russian operation of course was to take advantage of Europe’s dramatic dependence on Russian gas and to force Ukraine into a submissive position there are many indications that if ke had TR Fallen quickly Western capitals would have glossed over it expressing condemnation But continuing their commitment to Russian hydrocarbons but the opposite has happened the ukrainians tough stance forced Europe and the Germans in particular to painfully tear off the Russian leech the European Union has learned a painful lesson from the energy crisis countries that have long warned against Russia’s use of gas instead of Tanks such as Poland and Lithuania have only accelerated plans for independence from the Kremlin both rushed the launch of the Poland Lithuania gas pipeline to tap additional LNG supplies from floating gas port at queda polls also accelerated the expansion of the Shu gas port and signed a contract with Norway’s equinor the bulgarians who found themselves in an equally difficult situation had no readymade plan but preparations by the United States and the European Union which began before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine made it possible to reserve a volume of gas to ensure security of Supply the bulgarians received 1 billion cubic met of gas from this pool thus avoiding a gas crisis the Union as a whole has announced the repow EU program to win itself of gas and other raw materials from Russia by 2027 at the latest the union has also adapted regulations on the obligation to store gas before the beginning of each heating season it also announced a program to save gas consumption which was best supported by the horrendous price of the fuel which caused the phenomenon of demand destruction it was so expensive that everyone wanted to save money they call for joint gas purchases which has been made since at least 2014 was finally heard as the aggregate EU auction platform was created which allows for the reservation of supplies through demand aggregation one can call this concept broadly energy prism it implies for the promotion of an EU policy of Supply diversification and the harmonization of EU regulations in the former warso packed countries as well as Western Europe in order to reduce the influence of gas prom and consequently the Kremlin this is a kind of antithesis of the falling Kinski Doctrine the effectiveness of which was confirmed in practice during the energy crisis as a result of the crisis Russia’s gas prom did not induce Europe to abandon Ukraine but expelled itself from its gas market according to the International Energy agency by 2023 Russia’s share in the Union’s supplies have fallen to 133% bearing any sudden twists such as the Revival of northstream 1 and two the repow EU program is expected to succeed and Russian gun will be abandoned before 2027 deadline in retrospect one can say that the falling Kinski Doctrine brilliantly served the interest of the Kremlin regime it was the doctrine that actually put the Russian Federation back on its feet and rebuild the country left in chaos by Boris yelon in the 1990s it guaranteed a stable and high income for the Russian budget which was large enough to finance the modernization of the Russian military in addition to lining the pockets of dozens of oligarchs it can be said that the falling Kinski Doctrine was even too successful which effectively ended its life the Russians through the massive sale of gas and oil in Europe reached such a level of security and Financial cion and at the same time were extremely confident of Europe’s addiction to it that it pushed them to move to a higher level of offensive Doctrine gas instead of Tanks was thus replaced by the gas and tanks approach shattering fre Decades of Fallin and Kinski Doctrine and leading to the severing of the links that provided the basis for invasion in theory the Russians are trying to rebuild energy dependencies on Russia and China among others however both of these countries are in a much better buring position and are mercilessly exploiting the Russians moreover both countries are even further away from Russia’s gas fields and the infrastructure connecting Russia and the two Asian Powers is only now being built thus it can be said that on February February 24th 2022 the falling ficinski Doctrine officially collapsed under the weight of its own success the energy crisis which was supposed to make Europe bow to the kremlin’s blackmail has broken Russian dependence which is unlikely to return in the foreseeable future but the struggle is not over the EU continues to import Russian gas with supplies in the form of liquefied gas LNG even increasing by 37% from 202 1 reports brle and so this is not the end of the story of the Quest for energy sovereignty and the lesson of using gas instead of Tanks against Europe should serve as an example for responding to New Challenges energy transition provided it is not fueled by gas from Russia can be part of the solution to Europe’s dependence on Russian gas a successful Evolution can take place through a Duo of renewable energy and nuclear power such as the one currently underway in France and Sweden however the new reality creates new dependencies this time from the renewable energy sector and electromobility the energy transition in Europe today cannot take place without critical raw materials or renewable energy components from China the 2023 stateof the energy Union report shows that the European green Deal’s agenda of accelerating the transition to Renewables means greater dependence on raw materials and components from the Middle Kingdom we talked about this extensively in our feature how China conquers Europe via EOS green deal some renewable energy components are already 90% sourced from China it’s an argument for developing Western extraction of critical raw materials such as copper nickel Cobalt and lithium it’s also an argument for developing a western renewable energy industry independent of the Middle Kingdom’s Supply Chains It’s also an argument for betting big on nuclear power the lesson of the energy crisis is that there is no time to waste because the energy rivalry once between the west and Russia and now China will remain crucial for each country’s National Security

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Production: Hubert Walas
Research & analysis: Wojciech Jakóbik
Copyedit: Hubert Walas
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Music: Alice in Winter – Nuclear Conception
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