Putin at risk of losing Crimea if US allows Ukraine to strike Russian military targets | Frontline

Putin at risk of losing Crimea if US allows Ukraine to strike Russian military targets | Frontline

I don’t necessarily me think you need to do that with uh what would be a massively complex difficult and horrendously expensive in terms of blood and treasure invas amphibious invasion of Crimea but I do think you can make crime a impossible for the Russians to hold on to and to me that is the center of gravity uh and if Ukraine can hold on in its eastern provinces continue to push back the Russians or the first hold but to but to push them back but to focus on what I think is Russia’s center of gravity here which is Ukraine and not just military but political center of gravity and make it impossible for Russia to hold on to through the application of longrange precision missiles and the like then I think things could change very very quickly hello and welcome to Frontline for times radio I’m James Hansen and today we’re talking about the latest on the war in Ukraine and I’m delighted to be joined by General s Richard Sheriff NATO’s former deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe and the author of 2017 war with Russia an urgent warning from senior military command General Sheriff always a pleasure welcome back to front line Thank you for having me and good to be back James first of all I I wonder if you can just provide us with your key takeaways from the NATO Summit last week did it go far enough in terms of support for Ukraine for your liking um the answer to that direct question is a direct no it didn’t um but I at the same time I recognize that NATO and where NATO goes is about the art of the possible because you have to remember that getting the consensus of 32 different nations is a challenge um where does NATO need to go what should have come out first I think a clear statement should have come out that NATO is committed to support ing Ukraine in the defeat of Russia no ifs no buts this is not a war that is going to end in negotiation this is not something like the Northern Ireland peace process this is closer to World War I or World War II they did not end with negotiation Putin will never accept negotiation and if it does if he does it’ll only be negotiation on the basis that he gets exactly what he wants um so NATO should have come up I think this was the real opportunity in its 75th Anniversary Summit with a clear statement that NATO will develop and put together a strategy to support Ukraine in the defeat of Russia but that was clearly a bridge too far this time so what did we get we got a statement I mean some good words about the um about NATO continuing to support Ukraine and its irreversible part PA to full Euro Atlantic integration including NATO membership which is a great statement but implicit in that is defeat of Russia and NATO has shied away from that and I suppose also an irreversible path it’s strong language but it it does raise the question of well what is the time frame therefore are we talking about Ukraine becoming a NATO member in a DE decade are we talking about five years time or are we talking about a a path to membership that might happen in the next 6 to 12 months I mean it’s very open-ended what is your sense of the likely time scale you’re absolutely right it’s very open-ended and there was no time scale and of course strategies about the integration of ends with which in a sense is that this is a statement of the ends for Euro Atlantic integration including Ukraine as a member of NATO and that’s a a pretty clear statement but it’s about the the ways and the means the how you get there the what do you need to do to get there and the resources required to get you there as well um in terms of the war my sense is that this is this is a long War I mean it’s already let’s be clear it’s already a 12year war this war started in in 2014 it didn’t start in 2022 um and it’s it’s a I think this is going to run for easily uh and actually in in in World War II terms if you date the date it from the fullscale Russian invasion two years ago maybe we’re sort of 1941 42 so I think we could be looking at another two if not longer years because you only have to look at what needs to be done where is the war right now well it’s Russia has got the Strategic initiative Russia uh has been pressing hard we haven’t seen the sort of fullscale spring early summer offensive that many expected and that was forecast but nevertheless Russia continues to grind down Ukraine in its eastern territories at vast expense I mean incomprehensible expense to to us in in the west to Russia but it doesn’t care Russia could continues to conduct and commit the most appalling war crimes witness the deliberate deliberate attack on a on a on a children’s hospital with children going through chemotherapy with drips attached to them being evacuated covered in blood and dust from the that attack I mean that was deliberate State policy and it was deliberate State policy by the current chair of the UN Security Council and an organization under the terms of the U un Charter of Human Rights committed to removing aggression well how cynical and revolting is that so you know there’s a long way to go here uh and Ukraine has not only got to defend itself it’s got to build up its Armed Forces particularly its Army and it’s got to build up its Air Force the delivery of f-16s is any you know it was was heralded with great Triumph at the NATO Summit but have you seen a photograph of an X F16 Landing in Ukraine yet question mark maybe they’re not being released because of security reasons but I haven’t seen any pictures of that so there’s a heck of a long way to go here uh and then you know Ukraine needs the time to train this the reserves that is mobilizing under the new terms of mobilization it needs to build up its offensive capability in terms not just of individual training of soldiers but of the collective training of battalions of brigades of Divisions and of CES and it’s got to bring online the host of additional military support from the West so this is going to be a long run I’m glad you mentioned the f-16s actually because you’re right you know their delivery was heralded at the NATO Summit We Believe according to reports that’ll be in the Skies over Ukraine at some point this summer though when exactly we we do not know but just a delivery of them is that really enough I mean the time it takes to train an F-16 Pilots speaking recently on front line to General Breedlove who has flown f-16s in the past and it said it took him 10 years to become a an effective F-16 pilot that’s a massive challenge is it not yeah well you’re talking to a tank commander here um and Phil Breedlove who’s a very old friend I know he knows the drill and I listen to Phil anytime he was you know we he was my my Supreme Commander when I was Deputy um I mean I would just highlight the fact not only is it about training the individual but it’s about training the organization uh the the the the Army and the Air Force to cooperate the integration of air into land operations is a complex business and it’s really complex in the sort of environment we find ourselves now uh with the skies being dominated by drones the ability of the enemy to see everything that is going on and to bring targeting to Bear pretty quickly which the Russians have demonstrated they’re good at the issue of drone Warfare I think is fascinating I mean we’ve seen huge Innovation by both sides but particularly the Ukrainian since the start of the fullscale invasion a couple of years ago and just recently we had Ukrainian drones striking an oil Depo in the rostov O blast of of Russia do you think do you think I mean not just just in this war but longer term drone Warfare is going to become more and more crucial to Modern Combat oh I think that’s that’s um that’s that’s axiomatic that’s self-evident in a sense that that it is de facto critical to Modern Combat but but equally um I think you need to take a Long View here because drones are proliferating now but be under no Illusions measur measure is succeeded by countermeasure as night follows day in military Warfare you know the tank is followed by the anti-tank so the tank gets stronger and can overcome so anti-tank weapons become more sophisticated that’s been the story of of military conflict you know since the days of the the P pelian war in between the between Athens and Sparta and it and made out before that as well so it will continue yeah but I think the message is that 21st century conflict is I mean to say it’s complex is an understatement because not only are we expecting commanders to integrate the traditional what you might call the traditional combined arms capabilities which are still just as relevant make make no mistake about it of Tanks armored infantry armored Engineers artillery air defense uh Logistics all the paraphernalia of of of of of that we you know that we became used to and and frankly in in my day in the British army were pretty slick at at doing but you’ve also got to integrate that with drones with cyber um with data driven artillery um a whole host of new capabilities as well which places a huge burden on on on young commanders and indeed soldiers just to go back to some of the big takeaways from the NATO Summits in Washington last week there was a a 40 billion Euro package of military aid agreed by NATO member states for Ukraine a number of countries bilateral security arrangements as well but it stopped short of a multi-year agreement that the Secretary General Yen Stenberg had been pushing for why do you think it is that there is still this reluctance among I don’t know some NATO member states to to give Ukraine exactly what it needs it feels a bit like we go part of the way but not all the way yeah I mean this goes back to in a sense where we started that NATO is a consensus organization and and you know let’s be clear you know for NATO to to be as the summit to be as strong as it was I mean I I I you take away the just put it aside for a second my criticisms have not going far enough but the fact that it laid down unequivocally there is a path to Ukraine membership of NATO to Euro Atlantic integration okay it didn’t lay down any markers but equally as you say the 40 billion package uh the setting up of a NATO command to Marshall and integrate current bilateral support and training um I mean the you know the the announcement of the f-16s um that the and sort of slightly separate but the Ukraine compact 21 Nations coming together to combine bilateral security assist assistance um into an integrated package this is all good stuff but why doesn’t it go further quite simple because not all nations will agree and the fact that you’ve got hungary’s ticket on this agreement thus far you know we all know where Hungary comes from we’ve all seen Orban cozing up to Putin and Trump and setting himself up as a Great Peacemaker and the fact is that Hungary signed up to it so therefore it NATO is getting there and as I always say you know NATO has to move at the speed of the slower ship and the Convoy and you know Hungary is frankly a pretty slow ship but they’ve got them on board still and that’s important you referenced the the new NATO Command Center that’s going to be set up in Germany I believe that was announced last week just talk a bit about the significance of that well it’s really important because up to now there’s been no NATO strategy for providing lethal Aid to Ukraine it’s all been bilateral support by individual NATO Nations through the the us-led ram Ramstein Ramstein compact um this is NATO now saying yeah this is going to be done as an alliance and that demonstrates a Alliance strength and if you start this way you know it with NATO it’s small steps I mean we’d all prefer to be see big steps but this is a step on the way to a NATO strategy The Next Step might be a NATO strategy to support Ukraine to achieve unequivocally to achieve defeat of Russia because to go back to that nothing else is going to be any good because we in the west and in NATO and the Euro Atlantic region need to recognize that Russia is never going to give up its determination to destroy Ukraine as a Sovereign Nation and to destroy NATO to get rid of NATO or to neutralize NATO Russia is has set itself on that path Russia is at War not only with Ukraine but it’s at war with the West it thinks of itself as War as at war with NATO and the only way that we are going to enjoy peace on the Euro Atlantic region for generations to come is through through a NATO band of deterrent steel to include Ukraine to include Ukraine having defeated Russia well let let’s explore that I mean if you were going to draw up a a plan a strategy for the total defeats of of Russia and how you define that I suppose as an interesting question but but let’s say it’s returning Russia to its pre-24 borders and returning the land that’s been occupied ever since whether you think that’s realistic or not is it’s I suppose of a massive question but but what would be required to ensure that Ukraine could achieve that that total Victory well let’s let’s be clear by total defeat of Russia you’re implying um the sort of thing that was done to Germany in 1945 I’m not talking about that that is never going to happen I’m talking about defeat of Russian forces in Ukraine yes I am talking about the uh return of Ukraine lands s occupied since 2014 um I am talking about Russia um making making for example the Crimea impossible for Russia to hold on to I don’t necessarily me think you need to do that with uh what would be a massively complex difficult and horrendously expensive in terms of blood and treasure invas amphibious invasion of crime a but I do think you can make crime a impossible for the Russians to hold on to and to me that is the center of gravity uh and if Ukraine can hold on in its eastern provinces continue to push back the Russians or firstly to hold but to but to push them back but to focus on what I think is Russia’s center of gravity here which is Ukraine and not just military but political center of gravity and make it impossible for Russia to hold on to through the application of longrange precision missiles and the like then I think things could change very very quickly and there’s another point I would make here it’s not just about giving Ukraine the means to defeat Russia the and and by means I mean longrange prision missiles which have been you know pretty you know yes High Mars yes Storm Shadow but where are the German Tauruses you know there’s a lot more to do but it’s also about not tying Ukraine’s hands behind its back and allowing Ukraine to strike legitimate military Targets in Russia with Western supplied long range Precision missiles we’re still not there yet and again that that strikes me is is highly surprising that for example you know it is largely the the Americans who are imposing restrictions on where Ukraine can use us supplied longrange missiles and and okay I understand why certain NATO member states such as Hungary may have reluctance for their own domestic political reasons but but Joe Biden has been a very stange supporter of Ukraine it would be in Joe Biden’s political interests and in America strategic interest you would have thought to help Ukraine defeat Russia in the way you describe and even though they’ve lifted some of the restrictions are you still surprised that they’re not going further and why do you think that is well I mean I’m not going to second guess the Pol you know the political judgments made in the oal office but but I I as an observer I would suggest that there has been an excess of caution from the United States yes of course it’s given a huge amount of weaponry and capability much of which which is in a sense it’s being made in America so it’s you know it’s good news for American industry and defense Industries um but I think there’s been over you know there’s there’s been a sort of degree of self-d deterrence as a result of Putin’s nuclear saber rattling um and I think we should remember the max in let you know Churchill’s great line about about Russia only respect strength where it finds weakness it will continue to probe and so it has proven in the last two years uh that Russia has and Putin and his and his henchmen have have waxed lyrical about the um the threat of nuclear weapons if tanks are deployed if long range weapons missiles are deployed when it’s been deployed it’s not come to anything and of course don’t forget that President X has already breathed on Putin’s neck saying you know nuclear weapons arrived and I also thought it was fascinating at the Summit how for the first time you had NATO leaders pretty equivocally denouncing China’s role in the war of course Beijing would say it’s officially neutral but most analysts would would say that’s that’s not really credible what do you make of the upping of retoric against President shei and his role well it’s certainly it’s certainly recognizing that China it is in China’s interest that this war should continue that China is supplying dual use Technologies directly to Russia uh it’s almost certainly providing material and equipment to North Korea which is then being shipped on to to Ukraine and that China you know is a is as a g and Putin have said you know this Bond of bond of unbreakable friendship between them um and I think it’s it’s putting a marker down to China that that that it’s not going to have it all have it all its own way but at the same time time there’s got to be recognition in the west that there’s a clear linkage between what happens in Ukraine and what happens in the Asia Pacific if Putin is seen to get away with it in Ukraine that will almost certainly IM Bolen G um and the soat out of all this of course is the the importance for Effective deterrence and a need to think globally because Putin absolutely thinks globally he’s wound up South Korea with his action in North Korea so they’re now part you know in the equation um and and we need to think globally as well and just finally gentlemen I wanted to ask you about some of the challenges facing Russia obviously we talk a lot about the supply issues for Ukraine but according to the institute for the study of war the Russian military command may have committed underere equipped units initially intended to act as an operational Reserve to combat operations possibly due to constraints on the Russian defense industrial base as I say you know supply issues for Ukraine have been much discussed but but do you think there’s a real issue for Russia as well at the moment I saw that and I I you I I read IW CIT trps on a pretty much a daily basis and I I think what what happened I they’re very very well informed and I think it’s a any for any organization trying to understand what’s happening in this particular in this in this vital vital Conflict for European and transatlantic interests I I I really would highlight the importance of isws work I think that is a highly likely um deduction to draw uh we we were promised um a major spring summer offensive thus far it hasn’t materialized and that one of the reasons might be just because of the the reasons you’ve just cited however don’t take it for granted who knows what Russia might be beginning to be building up and keeping behind its sleeve but but thus far it hasn’t happened General Richard Sheriff always appreciate your time thank you so much for joining us today on front line Thank you for having me James good to talk

“You can make Crimea impossible for the Russians to hold onto… That is the centre of gravity.”

Russia could be defeated at last if the US gives Ukraine the green-light to strike legitimate military targets in Crimea, says Major General Sir Richard Shirreff.

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