Thanks to the ~~declining birth rates~~ exorbitant cost of a college education.
That’s okay. With all of the new technologies coming up, third-level education is going to change a lot and leave behind the 20th-century model of the four-year dorm-based college “experience”.
As people live longer & healthier & more active, and as we have more careers over more decades, we will shift to a lifelong learning model. We’ll work fewer hours, more like 10,000 hours per decade instead of 2,000-2,500 hours per year. We’ll take years off for personal goals, family care, and deep-dive education. We’ll use online and VR classrooms.
Rather than 4 years of full-time students at a university at one time, a university will have people of all ages from all over the world. Instead of 40,000 students at a university like Ohio State, there will be 4,000,000, but taking one class at a time for 70 years.
Well yeah, this will happen everywhere. Like there will be a lot of elementary to high schools that will no longer exist due to declining birth rates in the future.
This data – not beautiful. The article says the declining birth rate that begun in the Great Recession will result in a sharp decrease in 18 year olds starting 2025, but the chart X axis is such a mess I can’t tell where that decline starts.
Besides that, this chart could use a source. Based on the article, I think the author whipped up an Excel chart from the CDC birth data, but there’s no citation.
Schools have the option of allowing foreign students so it’s actually no big deal.
Probably good to see some schools close to rid the market of substandard schools.
Not just declining birth rates, but also rising costs of college education, and diminishing difference in income of those with BSc and without.
It looks like in 2021 (not long ago) there were about 8.7 million. In 2029 there will be about 8.1 million. Hardly “falling off a cliff” sort of difference over recent times 👎
Hope you guys weren’t planning on ever retiring. With so few young people entering the job market each year it’s going to force older people to work longer and longer.
I can seriously imagine stuffy college higher ups and administrations blaming the lowering enrollment rates on declining birth rates over the fact that it costs a bajiliion dollara
The author selected the origin of both axes to make the cliff appear. While there is a projected decline, it is not of the magnitude this unethical author is trying to present.
He has a vested interest in misrepresenting the future of in-person higher education because he is offering online instruction platforms.
They’ll just charge more to deal with less enrollment
12 comments
Thanks to the ~~declining birth rates~~ exorbitant cost of a college education.
That’s okay. With all of the new technologies coming up, third-level education is going to change a lot and leave behind the 20th-century model of the four-year dorm-based college “experience”.
As people live longer & healthier & more active, and as we have more careers over more decades, we will shift to a lifelong learning model. We’ll work fewer hours, more like 10,000 hours per decade instead of 2,000-2,500 hours per year. We’ll take years off for personal goals, family care, and deep-dive education. We’ll use online and VR classrooms.
Rather than 4 years of full-time students at a university at one time, a university will have people of all ages from all over the world. Instead of 40,000 students at a university like Ohio State, there will be 4,000,000, but taking one class at a time for 70 years.
Well yeah, this will happen everywhere. Like there will be a lot of elementary to high schools that will no longer exist due to declining birth rates in the future.
This data – not beautiful. The article says the declining birth rate that begun in the Great Recession will result in a sharp decrease in 18 year olds starting 2025, but the chart X axis is such a mess I can’t tell where that decline starts.
Besides that, this chart could use a source. Based on the article, I think the author whipped up an Excel chart from the CDC birth data, but there’s no citation.
Schools have the option of allowing foreign students so it’s actually no big deal.
Probably good to see some schools close to rid the market of substandard schools.
Not just declining birth rates, but also rising costs of college education, and diminishing difference in income of those with BSc and without.
It looks like in 2021 (not long ago) there were about 8.7 million. In 2029 there will be about 8.1 million. Hardly “falling off a cliff” sort of difference over recent times 👎
Hope you guys weren’t planning on ever retiring. With so few young people entering the job market each year it’s going to force older people to work longer and longer.
I can seriously imagine stuffy college higher ups and administrations blaming the lowering enrollment rates on declining birth rates over the fact that it costs a bajiliion dollara
The author selected the origin of both axes to make the cliff appear. While there is a projected decline, it is not of the magnitude this unethical author is trying to present.
He has a vested interest in misrepresenting the future of in-person higher education because he is offering online instruction platforms.
They’ll just charge more to deal with less enrollment