HomeUkraineRussia apparently cannot find enough men for its military. Today Putin doubled the federal signing bonus from 195,000 to 400,000 rubles. The regions are supposed to add at least 400,000. Many regions pay much more
Russia apparently cannot find enough men for its military. Today Putin doubled the federal signing bonus from 195,000 to 400,000 rubles. The regions are supposed to add at least 400,000. Many regions pay much more
August 1, 2024
Russia apparently cannot find enough men for its military. Today Putin doubled the federal signing bonus from 195,000 to 400,000 rubles. The regions are supposed to add at least 400,000. Many regions pay much more
https://x.com/jakluge/status/1818600986631422328
by Loki9101
21 comments
The full thread for those who do not want to click on X links.
War as a hyper-neoliberal enterprise. A business deal between potential soldiers and the state: you weigh up death rate vs. monetary reward. This mutes social backlash to losses – if you go, family and friends see you as gambling on a risky business deal.
Russia apparently cannot find enough men for its military. Today Putin doubled the federal signing bonus from 195,000 to 400,000 rubles. The regions are supposed to add at least 400,000. Many regions pay much more.
In some places, the total signing bonus will buy you an apartment. Signing bonuses make up a significant part of the budget: Russia claims it mobilizes 100k soldiers in 3-4 months. If we assume total bonus is 1 mio, this is 400 billion rubles (4.5 billion dollars) per year.
But: These costs pale in comparison to payouts to injured soldiers or the families of dead soldiers, which are at least 3-5 million rubles. So if Russian losses are really 1,000 per day (the same rate as enlistment), this would add over 1.2 trillion rubles per year. The crazy conclusion here is: Total signing bonuses and compensation for casualties could be close to what Russia pays in total salaries to soldiers fighting in Ukraine! (500k soldiers that earn 300k rubles monthly would be -> 1.8 trillion salaries annually).
The neat trick is that Russia doesn’t pay them all a regular salary or tricks them out of these boni somehow, and the next neat trick is, they do the same with compensation. The Russian military is once more organized in medieval Drushdinas with regional overlords that are connected to the serfs they provide for Ukraine.
Let me guess: that bonus won’t actually get paid out unless you come to collect it ALIVE in person after the war ….
That’s only $4k
He has to double it because most of it is still be stolen by the same clowns who’ve gutted his billions of military aid.
I think word has got around in Russia – if you go to Ukraine, you’re probably not coming back in one piece if at all.
Double nothing is still nothing…
Either they are temporarily going all in to grab territory before freezing the conflict, cost what it may in lives and money.
Or they are in it for the long haul and intending to outlast Ukraine, and take a large part, if not all, but it is getting harder to get men into uniform. If they truly have 600K in uniform, that is enormous first of all … but how do you keep this up? How many suitable people are there among the 50 million or so military age males? The educated ones are critical to the economy (if they haven’t fled). They have emptied the prisons, and probably hit the poor regions as hard as they can without enormous push back. So now it is dangling money. I think money will get desperate people. And near desperate may be enticed with a fatter bonus. But at some point, the increased cost will go exponential, as your reach those who really don’t want to put their life on the line, at any cost. So maybe they can lie and tell them they will be rear logistics, but you can’t pull that lie more than a few times.
If they don’t get the men, I presume it will mean a reduction in offensive action, but they can probably freeze the lines with far fewer, so then its back to attrition. And that is where drones of all ranges come in, hitting the men and equipment on the line, and the last mile logistics, and then strategic long range to max effect (refineries, power gen etc). And special operations, including the recent cyberattack on banking system.
Many won’t live to collect it. May as well be 1 million.
I wonder how much of this is due to people not fancying their chances, and how much is due to the fact that businesses don’t have enough workers already, so the military has to compete against low unemployment..
Now that everyone’s poor and the banking system is failing they’ll sign up
Could the west theoretically promise to pay 2000$ to men aged 20-40 that have not signed up after two years? How much would that cost? Less than the bombs and guns?
That 400,000 rubles works out to $4,500.
Not very tempting.
Why not spend that money on import/export and trade infrastructure, like growing sea ports, upgrading rail lines, paying diplomats and trade ministers, developing more than two industries that actually export things, growing tourism…
That would be cheaper than this, and it would form an economy that is might actually compete internationally. And you would have people working in the economy instead of killing off your population *and* letting the economy whither.
Child soldiers when?
Wow. $5000 to get killed. Seems worth it.
The guys getting paid peanuts previously might want a raise. Hopefully they ask for it by fragging their comrades and commanders.
And they need 1,370 more soldiers as of the last daily lose count.
😂
I don’t doubt that. From what I have seen of Russians recently, they openly brag about dodging service by either paying out or getting waivers. They aren’t even ashamed. It’s like an achievement to be bragged about. What bothers me is the Ukrainians that are playing online games with them and joining thier guilds. Reeks of treason
Ruzzian army now has water shortage as well.
Not just bad equipment, food, medicine…they are not given enough water.
We are getting close to the point where their effectiveness on the battlefield is close to zero, human waves or not.
I can’t wait for someone from Minnesota oblast to tell me how Russia can keep this up indefinitely.
Only stupid people think Russia has an endless supply to men to die in Ukraine.
21 comments
The full thread for those who do not want to click on X links.
War as a hyper-neoliberal enterprise. A business deal between potential soldiers and the state: you weigh up death rate vs. monetary reward. This mutes social backlash to losses – if you go, family and friends see you as gambling on a risky business deal.
Vlad Vexler
https://x.com/VladVexler/status/1818706541173727256
Russia apparently cannot find enough men for its military. Today Putin doubled the federal signing bonus from 195,000 to 400,000 rubles. The regions are supposed to add at least 400,000. Many regions pay much more.
In some places, the total signing bonus will buy you an apartment. Signing bonuses make up a significant part of the budget: Russia claims it mobilizes 100k soldiers in 3-4 months. If we assume total bonus is 1 mio, this is 400 billion rubles (4.5 billion dollars) per year.
But: These costs pale in comparison to payouts to injured soldiers or the families of dead soldiers, which are at least 3-5 million rubles. So if Russian losses are really 1,000 per day (the same rate as enlistment), this would add over 1.2 trillion rubles per year.
The crazy conclusion here is: Total signing bonuses and compensation for casualties could be close to what Russia pays in total salaries to soldiers fighting in Ukraine! (500k soldiers that earn 300k rubles monthly would be -> 1.8 trillion salaries annually).
The neat trick is that Russia doesn’t pay them all a regular salary or tricks them out of these boni somehow, and the next neat trick is, they do the same with compensation. The Russian military is once more organized in medieval Drushdinas with regional overlords that are connected to the serfs they provide for Ukraine.
Let me guess: that bonus won’t actually get paid out unless you come to collect it ALIVE in person after the war ….
That’s only $4k
He has to double it because most of it is still be stolen by the same clowns who’ve gutted his billions of military aid.
I think word has got around in Russia – if you go to Ukraine, you’re probably not coming back in one piece if at all.
Double nothing is still nothing…
Either they are temporarily going all in to grab territory before freezing the conflict, cost what it may in lives and money.
Or they are in it for the long haul and intending to outlast Ukraine, and take a large part, if not all, but it is getting harder to get men into uniform. If they truly have 600K in uniform, that is enormous first of all … but how do you keep this up? How many suitable people are there among the 50 million or so military age males? The educated ones are critical to the economy (if they haven’t fled). They have emptied the prisons, and probably hit the poor regions as hard as they can without enormous push back. So now it is dangling money. I think money will get desperate people. And near desperate may be enticed with a fatter bonus. But at some point, the increased cost will go exponential, as your reach those who really don’t want to put their life on the line, at any cost. So maybe they can lie and tell them they will be rear logistics, but you can’t pull that lie more than a few times.
If they don’t get the men, I presume it will mean a reduction in offensive action, but they can probably freeze the lines with far fewer, so then its back to attrition. And that is where drones of all ranges come in, hitting the men and equipment on the line, and the last mile logistics, and then strategic long range to max effect (refineries, power gen etc). And special operations, including the recent cyberattack on banking system.
Many won’t live to collect it. May as well be 1 million.
I wonder how much of this is due to people not fancying their chances, and how much is due to the fact that businesses don’t have enough workers already, so the military has to compete against low unemployment..
Now that everyone’s poor and the banking system is failing they’ll sign up
Could the west theoretically promise to pay 2000$ to men aged 20-40 that have not signed up after two years? How much would that cost? Less than the bombs and guns?
That 400,000 rubles works out to $4,500.
Not very tempting.
Why not spend that money on import/export and trade infrastructure, like growing sea ports, upgrading rail lines, paying diplomats and trade ministers, developing more than two industries that actually export things, growing tourism…
That would be cheaper than this, and it would form an economy that is might actually compete internationally. And you would have people working in the economy instead of killing off your population *and* letting the economy whither.
Child soldiers when?
Wow. $5000 to get killed. Seems worth it.
The guys getting paid peanuts previously might want a raise. Hopefully they ask for it by fragging their comrades and commanders.
And they need 1,370 more soldiers as of the last daily lose count.
😂
I don’t doubt that. From what I have seen of Russians recently, they openly brag about dodging service by either paying out or getting waivers. They aren’t even ashamed. It’s like an achievement to be bragged about. What bothers me is the Ukrainians that are playing online games with them and joining thier guilds. Reeks of treason
Ruzzian army now has water shortage as well.
Not just bad equipment, food, medicine…they are not given enough water.
We are getting close to the point where their effectiveness on the battlefield is close to zero, human waves or not.
I can’t wait for someone from Minnesota oblast to tell me how Russia can keep this up indefinitely.
Only stupid people think Russia has an endless supply to men to die in Ukraine.