Russian military lacks operational capacity to maintain renewed summer offensive in Ukraine

Russian military lacks operational capacity to maintain renewed summer offensive in Ukraine

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Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have noted that due to the lack of capacity for a large-scale offensive in Ukraine, the Russian command resorts to periodic impulsive mechanised attacks that are costly for both the Russian forces and the Ukrainian defence forces.

Russian forces carried out five mechanised attacks, ranging from platoon to battalion size, in western Donetsk Oblast on 29 and 30 July. Analysts noted that these localised mechanised offensives likely reflect a projected Russian summer offensive. However, it is probable that Russian forces lack the broader operational capacity to launch a separate, renewed offensive in Donetsk Oblast or elsewhere along the front line this summer.

ISW previously assessed that Russian forces are likely attempting to seize Kostiantynivka and cut the Vuhledar-Kostiantynivka T-0524 highway, forcing Ukrainians to retreat from the area.

The ISW has previously highlighted that Russian forces have struggled with conducting simultaneous large-scale offensives throughout the full-scale war, often resorting to staggered offensive operations across different front sectors. This approach involves decreasing activity on one front while increasing it on another. Throughout the summer, Russian troops have periodically launched platoon and company-sized mechanised assaults on the Lyman, Chasiv Yar, and Avdiivka fronts in Donetsk Oblast, with a recent uptick in attacks to the west and southwest of the city of Donetsk.

The Russian military command may perceive these intermittent mechanised assaults as sufficient to meet their revised, more modest goals for the summer of 2024, or as reflecting the current limitations of their forces. The command could be aiming to present these limited tactical gains, such as the potential severing of the Vuhledar-Kostiantynivka highway, as a significant victory to Russians, despite the general lack of public familiarity with this region. Additionally, the command might be driving the already depleted Russian forces in this area to push forward as far as possible before their combat effectiveness diminishes, regardless of the heavy losses sustained. The Russian military’s apparent readiness to incur substantial armoured vehicle losses without achieving operationally significant advances or launching a large-scale, multi-directional offensive in western Donetsk Oblast is likely to strain its military capabilities in the long run. Analysts also pointed out that Russia’s ongoing offensive operations are also costly for Ukraine’s defenders and are likely to deteriorate Ukrainian capabilities through attrition, whether they achieve significant success or not.
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