Russian submarines trapped: Strike on submarine by Ukraine could fuel Moscow’s fears

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The successful destruction of the Rostov-on-Don showed that the Russian submarines that remain in the Black Sea are effectively trapped: they cannot leave the sea and there is nowhere to service them, writes the military-analytical portal Defense Express.

The Rostov-on-Don submarine was hit by Storm Shadow/SCALP cruise missiles on September 13, 2023, while in dry dock at the Sevastopol Marine Plant. By June of this year, they were able to patch it up so that it could just stay afloat, and they towed it to Kilen Bay, where the 13th ship repair plant is located. Repairs were supposed to continue there, but on August 2, the submarine was hit by another missile in the side and apparently sank.

“That is, now the Ukrainian Defense Forces have a proven capability to destroy Russian submarines in the still occupied Sevastopol, which are not only in dry dock, but also in the “wall”. And this is a very important aspect, because in the Black Sea in the Russian Federation there are three more submarines of the similar Varshavyanka project B-265 Krasnodar, B-268 Velikiy Novgorod and B-271 Kolpino, as well as the Paltus project B-871 Alrosa,” writes Defense Express.

As analysts note, it was the Sevastopol Marine Plant that was the main repair base for Russian submarines in the Black Sea. And even then, sometimes it was necessary to drive the boats around all of Europe to Kronstadt to carry out certain types of repair work there.

However, the Turkish straits are currently closed to Russian military ships due to the war. It is also highly questionable whether it will be possible to transport them via the system of rivers and canals along the route through the Don and Volga. In theory, ships can still be repaired in Novorossiysk, but the plant there has never dealt with submarines.

“That is, in the Russian Federation, all submarines are currently left without the possibility of full repairs, because for this they need to be driven under attack to occupied Sevastopol. At the same time, the operation of all three Varshavyankas in the Russian Federation is extremely active and the frequency of their repairs and maintenance is higher than peacetime standards,” the experts note.

Defense Express acknowledges that this does not mean that these boats will be out of service “tomorrow”, but without proper ongoing maintenance, the likelihood of a breakdown or even an underwater accident when going out to sea increases significantly.

The submarine’s downing is likely to fuel fears among Russian authorities that spies are tipping off Ukrainian commanders about the best times to strike, The Telegraph reports. Let us recall that on September 13, 2023, occupied Sevastopol came under missile attack, and a large-scale fire was reported on the territory of the marine plant .

It soon became known that the submarine Rostov-on-Don and the large landing ship Minsk had been damaged during the attack. In mid-July, it was reported that the occupiers had allegedly completed its repairs .

On August 3, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported the effective destruction of the Russian Black Sea Fleet submarine Rostov-on-Don.
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31 comments

  6. Hahaha. Hitting a sub in dry dock is easy. You can see it from space and it can't move. They launched dozens of missiles at various different targets and two missiles managed to get through the air defences and hit a sub that was in dry dock, the other missile hit another boat in dry dock. Neither of which were a threat to the Ukraine at all. They have since repaired the sub and it is back in the water where it can launch cruise missiles to destroy targets all over the Ukraine. Storm Shadow missiles have zero chance of hitting a submerged submarine, so the sub is not totally safe, which is more than you can say for the Ukraine. These PR wins for Kiev are worse than useless, but American companies like Blackrock are making money so the conflict will continue.

  14. I'm relieved that the mass gathering of F-16 pilots (and crews?) at a Ukrainian airfield, in which Pres. Zelenskyy personally thanked and awarded these personnel, wasn't met with a RuZZian missile barrage… but maybe the next time the UA govt. assembles these critically important forces, they don't do it Soviet-style and outdoors in the open?

  15. Moscow: How do you sink a submarine? They are meant to be under the water! Just because our submarines have lost the ability to surface should not be viewed as a problem, just a modification to their normal operating profile!

  16. You showed a lot of pictures of the KURSK, which Ruzzia sank itself with it's badly maintained H2O2 torpedoes…so the common theme is Ruzzia = The_Stoopid.

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