*Submission Statement:* Over the last three days Ukraine has expanded its incursion into Russia’s Kursk Oblast in what is the largest advance on Russian territory since the war began. Strategically, this has opened a second front diverting attention and resources from the front lines in Eastern Ukraine where Russia has slowly been advancing. It also serves as a blow to morale as Ukraine easily overwhelmed conscripts as Kursk was inadequately defended.
Tactical? This is strategic. It’s to gain a bargaining chip for future peace talks. Of course, if the conflict becomes frozen instead, it means they get to keep new territories in exchange for those they lost. This will also put more space between Ukrainian cities and the effective border.
I predict Ukraine will make another invasion near Kharkiv and take parts of Belgorod. Strategic depth is desperately needed there.
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*Submission Statement:* Over the last three days Ukraine has expanded its incursion into Russia’s Kursk Oblast in what is the largest advance on Russian territory since the war began. Strategically, this has opened a second front diverting attention and resources from the front lines in Eastern Ukraine where Russia has slowly been advancing. It also serves as a blow to morale as Ukraine easily overwhelmed conscripts as Kursk was inadequately defended.
[Deeper analysis: Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 8, 2024](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-8-2024) *Institute for the Study of War*
Tactical? This is strategic. It’s to gain a bargaining chip for future peace talks. Of course, if the conflict becomes frozen instead, it means they get to keep new territories in exchange for those they lost. This will also put more space between Ukrainian cities and the effective border.
I predict Ukraine will make another invasion near Kharkiv and take parts of Belgorod. Strategic depth is desperately needed there.
https://youtu.be/IS4jzX_-GwE?si=Jd3xx6xZIvH6vqtJ