>The ISW noted that Putin believes that Russia can slowly subsume Ukraine through a gradual offensive and that Russia can achieve its goals through a war of attrition against Ukrainian forces.
>These assessments make Putin unwilling to negotiate peace on terms other than capitulation by Ukraine and the West to his demands.
Putin believes a lot of stupid shit. Including things that contradicts his own arguments, like the whole “Moscow is older than Ukraine” angle.
Yeah, 1,000 dead Russians a day to take half of a field is really going to work all the way to Kyiv.
And before anyone mentions WW2, the offensive force lost, ie the nazis.
This will push Ukraine to build nuclear weapons.
Ukraine is doing the same to Russian territories..
It sorts of work for the time being. But even he manages to do so, there gonna be fuckton of underground sabotage in occupied regions. And I am pretty sure both USSR and USA known how difficult and costly to tackle this.
Afghanistan anyone. After 10 years of war there they broke the soviet union. Ukraine is going to finish the job.
And what are U.S. policy makers goals?
They would rather not see a militarily and socially defeated Russia that would pose greater Eurasian security challanges in time. They would rather see a half defeated Russia that poses marginal Eurasian security challanges presently.
I think the U.S. wants to see Russia avoid a 1918 Germany scenario because its domestic politics have been proven, historically to be less than predictable.
Generally works out great when an entire population hates the controlling power 👍
Sadly I think they can do that. Only way Ukraine can win is by inflicting unsustainable casualties. More weapons to Ukraine.
While the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast appears to be having operational-level impacts on the Russian military, the incursion has likely not yet shifted Putin’s strategic-level thinking. ISW assesses that Putin maintains that Russia can slowly and indefinitely subsume Ukraine through grinding advances and that Russia can achieve its goals through a war of attrition against Ukrainian forces and by outlasting Western support for Ukraine — assessments that make Putin averse to peace negotiations on terms other than Ukrainian and Western capitulation to his demands.[13]
That crazy fuck really thinks that he can send millions of Russians to death, push millions to migrate, claim ruined and depopulated territory and call this a victory.
In what world this is anything bu pyrrhic victory at best for Russia?
By the time this happens, there would be no Ukraine left.
He’s not wrong if he means retaining what they have now.
Putin believes a lot of things…
Ukraine can do the same to Russia by slowly taking their land including Moscow!
Even Avganistan was occupied, by Russians and by Americans.You can take a country, but never have it, Resistance will take it back.
Lots of blabla and at the end of the day, doesn’t matter. Russia can’t win a war of attrition while the west supplies UA, especially of the supplies continue to ramp up in quality and scale – and yeah, that’s been ongoing, despite the frustrating “always too little”. We began with sending newer stuff to ex-warsaw countries and they sent their soviet stuff over, plus small arms and rockets. Then moved on to western artillery systems, AA, tanks, fighters and more. Basically through material losses, UA loses soviet stuff and replaces it with western. Hopefully ammo production and refurbishment of Leo2 ramp up enough for the EU to send more of that too in 2025.
However, the opposite is also true: UA can’t win a war of attrition if western supplies end. This means the war is decided in November by American swing state voters and how much pressure the pro Russian parties in Europe can put on our governments. If November doesn’t become a catastrophe, we got til late 2025 before the next major danger (elections in Germany, ideally lost by the FDP who are blocking alot of aid and not too bad a push by left and right wing Kreml kronies AfD and BSW).
The bottom line is, Russia can’t sustain losing 1000 men a day plus alot of equipment forever. They got stockpiles that will run lower and ultimately dry up but it’ll take at least 2025, maybe 2026, for that to occur – unless something major changes until then, like further pressure by UA in Kursk and elsewhere, popular discontent at a draft and oligarchs pissed at lack of income and security.
Let’s just say that happens… you’re still sanctioned at the end of it and starve out…
So what benefit?
I can believe it unless Ukraine are given support with a far quicker and reliable turnaround. F16’s took too long, AA defence is still patchy in key locations and it feels as though morale in and out of Ukraine has understandably tanked.
Russia won’t care about a problem of manpower down the line and have the materials and manpower Ukraine don’t have, especially the latter. Burying heads in the sand and ignoring this isn’t going to help.
I think the Kursk offensive offered a good morale rise and the idea it may have diverted resources was sound. But it isn’t enough. They need another 2 or 3 incursions like this to really force a high level resource reallocation.
The headline needs a minor addition: 74-year-old Putin believes ….
22 comments
>The ISW noted that Putin believes that Russia can slowly subsume Ukraine through a gradual offensive and that Russia can achieve its goals through a war of attrition against Ukrainian forces.
>These assessments make Putin unwilling to negotiate peace on terms other than capitulation by Ukraine and the West to his demands.
Putin believes a lot of stupid shit. Including things that contradicts his own arguments, like the whole “Moscow is older than Ukraine” angle.
Yeah, 1,000 dead Russians a day to take half of a field is really going to work all the way to Kyiv.
And before anyone mentions WW2, the offensive force lost, ie the nazis.
This will push Ukraine to build nuclear weapons.
Ukraine is doing the same to Russian territories..
It sorts of work for the time being. But even he manages to do so, there gonna be fuckton of underground sabotage in occupied regions. And I am pretty sure both USSR and USA known how difficult and costly to tackle this.
Afghanistan anyone. After 10 years of war there they broke the soviet union. Ukraine is going to finish the job.
And what are U.S. policy makers goals?
They would rather not see a militarily and socially defeated Russia that would pose greater Eurasian security challanges in time. They would rather see a half defeated Russia that poses marginal Eurasian security challanges presently.
I think the U.S. wants to see Russia avoid a 1918 Germany scenario because its domestic politics have been proven, historically to be less than predictable.
Generally works out great when an entire population hates the controlling power 👍
Sadly I think they can do that. Only way Ukraine can win is by inflicting unsustainable casualties. More weapons to Ukraine.
While the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast appears to be having operational-level impacts on the Russian military, the incursion has likely not yet shifted Putin’s strategic-level thinking. ISW assesses that Putin maintains that Russia can slowly and indefinitely subsume Ukraine through grinding advances and that Russia can achieve its goals through a war of attrition against Ukrainian forces and by outlasting Western support for Ukraine — assessments that make Putin averse to peace negotiations on terms other than Ukrainian and Western capitulation to his demands.[13]
https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-3-2024
That crazy fuck really thinks that he can send millions of Russians to death, push millions to migrate, claim ruined and depopulated territory and call this a victory.
In what world this is anything bu pyrrhic victory at best for Russia?
By the time this happens, there would be no Ukraine left.
He’s not wrong if he means retaining what they have now.
Putin believes a lot of things…
Ukraine can do the same to Russia by slowly taking their land including Moscow!
Even Avganistan was occupied, by Russians and by Americans.You can take a country, but never have it, Resistance will take it back.
Lots of blabla and at the end of the day, doesn’t matter. Russia can’t win a war of attrition while the west supplies UA, especially of the supplies continue to ramp up in quality and scale – and yeah, that’s been ongoing, despite the frustrating “always too little”. We began with sending newer stuff to ex-warsaw countries and they sent their soviet stuff over, plus small arms and rockets. Then moved on to western artillery systems, AA, tanks, fighters and more. Basically through material losses, UA loses soviet stuff and replaces it with western. Hopefully ammo production and refurbishment of Leo2 ramp up enough for the EU to send more of that too in 2025.
However, the opposite is also true: UA can’t win a war of attrition if western supplies end. This means the war is decided in November by American swing state voters and how much pressure the pro Russian parties in Europe can put on our governments. If November doesn’t become a catastrophe, we got til late 2025 before the next major danger (elections in Germany, ideally lost by the FDP who are blocking alot of aid and not too bad a push by left and right wing Kreml kronies AfD and BSW).
The bottom line is, Russia can’t sustain losing 1000 men a day plus alot of equipment forever. They got stockpiles that will run lower and ultimately dry up but it’ll take at least 2025, maybe 2026, for that to occur – unless something major changes until then, like further pressure by UA in Kursk and elsewhere, popular discontent at a draft and oligarchs pissed at lack of income and security.
Let’s just say that happens… you’re still sanctioned at the end of it and starve out…
So what benefit?
I can believe it unless Ukraine are given support with a far quicker and reliable turnaround. F16’s took too long, AA defence is still patchy in key locations and it feels as though morale in and out of Ukraine has understandably tanked.
Russia won’t care about a problem of manpower down the line and have the materials and manpower Ukraine don’t have, especially the latter. Burying heads in the sand and ignoring this isn’t going to help.
I think the Kursk offensive offered a good morale rise and the idea it may have diverted resources was sound. But it isn’t enough. They need another 2 or 3 incursions like this to really force a high level resource reallocation.
The headline needs a minor addition: 74-year-old Putin believes ….
He’s not got infinite time.
Nothing gradual about 1000 casualties per day