The weather weirdness means there are no immediate legitimate storm prospects. If no storms develop by the typical peak of hurricane season on September 10, it would mark a peak-of-season quiet streak unmatched in nearly 100 years, according to hurricane expert Michael Lowry.
Still, experts warn the season isn’t finished and could show signs of life soon.
More than 40% of all tropical activity in a typical season occurs after September 10, so there’s plenty of precedent for storms to reinvigorate the Atlantic in the following months.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/06/weather/hurricane-season-atlantic-storms-climate
by mandy009
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>Scientists have long said a warming world will ultimately result in fewer but stronger storms something this season has born the fruit of.
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>The African monsoon is supercharged with a ton of moisture, something that can actually delay tropical storm development, a study published in June in the Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems found. It turns out there’s a Goldilocks zone for hurricanes – dry conditions will starve thunderstorms of the fuel they need, but too much can make them so messy that they can’t organize into a cyclone. The moisture needs to be just right.
>“For the first time, we’re seeing that this is actually the case,” said the study’s lead author, Kelly Núñez Ocasio, who is also an associate professor at Texas A&M University. “We’re seeing it right now in the Atlantic hurricane season.”
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>“If you had told me a month ago that nothing would (develop) after Ernesto I wouldn’t have believed you,” said Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane expert and research scientist at Colorado State University. “It’s really surprising.”
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>Klotzbach believes the season could reawaken by the second half of September, when these limiting factors could start to lessen.
>And as the season drags on, the area where storms start to form later in hurricane season creeps closer to the Caribbean and the US coastline, including in the Gulf of Mexico which is record-warm. Plus, La Niña is expected to build throughout the fall and could give a boost to activity in October and November.