The evidence of Cuba’s imminent collapse is overwhelming

It's September 2024, and Cuba is on the brink of a humanitarian catastrophe. The collapse of the country's industries, infrastructure, and public services is accelerating exponentially (problems are multiplying rather than gradually increasing) due to 65 years of accumulated deterioration under communist rule plus the regime's lack of resources to fix the country's problems due to its disastrous response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the loss of aid from Venezuela, and the mass exodus of at least 11.4% of the country's population in 3 years (70% of them of working age). The island's energy, water, transportation, and health infrastructure could collapse simultaneously, as they are interconnected and a failure in one could lead to failures in the others.

Evidence of an impending collapse: According to reports on Cuban social media and Cuban independent media outlets such as cibercuba.com, there are more piles of garbage on the streets of cities throughout the country than ever, meaning that sanitation services are starting to fail. Oroupoche fever is spreading rapidly, suggesting that health and sanitation services are failing. Power plants frequently go out of service, water shortages are spreading in Havana (there have already been protests), and the town of Caibarién has gone 29 days without water.

Every single day: more people leave the country, more people die, the age dependency ratio worsens (fewer people of working age and more retirees), agriculture and industry degrade, water and electrical infrastructure degrade, buildings degrade, roads degrade, there are blackouts, there are water shortages, public transportation degrades, the health system degrades, the informal economy grows, diseases like oropouche and dengue spread even more, more garbage accumulates and state resources are depleted. The Cuban peso could lose all its value, and vendors will only accept hard currency.

The next few months will be much worse.