White voters overwhelmingly supported Senator Tuberville. The coefficient of determination for white population in each county and its support for Tuberville was roughly 0.96, indicating that 96% of the variance in voting pattern could be predicted by the whiteness of the population.
**OUTLIERS**
Using a line of best fit, I calculated the following residuals, indicating that certain counties had higher or lower than predicted support for Tuberville given their demographics. Tuberville underperformed in the following counties:
[EDIT: it would be great if an Alabamian with knowledge of these counties can offer insight as to why Tuberville fared better or worse in some counties given their demographics!]
Now tell me the percentage of Auburn vs Alabama fans. That’ll be the real support percentage.
What’s the coefficient of correlation for this?
Doesn’t that just speak to the fact that the black and Hispanic populations in America typically support the Democrat by a wide margin?
There are counties in Alabama that are 90% white? Why does that feel crazy?
There’s little of value here. Black people vote Democrat 90+ percent of the time. The individual Senator and state are essentially irrelevant.
Well this Auburn fan won’t be voting for that buffoon who held up military promotions and doesn’t know the 3 branches of government.
Fun fact, Tuberville’s primary residence is in Florida, and he doesn’t actually live in Alabama.
I would love the see the correlation coefficient on that one. I dream of finding associations this strong in my own studies lol.
Now look at % voting Democrat for the last 50 years compared to % black. It won’t be much different. Point being it’s not Tuberville specifically
So beautiful! Not bland and basic at all!
This is a great piece of data-gathering, plotted perfectly. Clear hypothesis and persuasive.
I for one am white, live in Alabama, and hate this man more than anything in the world. Though, if you’re looking for insider trading techniques, Tommy is the guy. He has made more money on the stock market than any other Senator, true to his lawless cheating lying nature. That’s because he’s a millionaire who lives in Florida and doesn’t give a shit about you/me at all… Sounds a lot like another person as well 🤔
Not a surprise at all. The US electorate is very racialized along party lines, but especially so in the Deep South
That guy is such a fucking moron
Wow! It’s hard to find social data anywhere with that strong correlation.
17 comments
**SOURCES**
* US Census Data
* [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-alabama-senate.html)
**METHODOLOGY**
* Excel
**RESULTS**
|+|County|Tuberville|Jones|% White|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|1|Autauga County|70.10%|29.90%|78.50%|
|2|Baldwin County|73.50%|26.50%|80.47%|
|3|Barbour County|52.00%|48.00%|43.95%|
|4|Bibb County|76.50%|23.50%|73.75%|
|5|Blount County|88.00%|12.00%|84.15%|
|6|Bullock County|24.10%|75.90%|22.02%|
|7|Butler County|55.50%|44.50%|50.81%|
|8|Calhoun County|66.90%|33.10%|68.29%|
|9|Chambers County|54.60%|45.40%|53.34%|
|10|Cherokee County|82.70%|17.30%|90.36%|
|11|Chilton County|81.80%|18.20%|77.48%|
|12|Choctaw County|56.50%|43.50%|55.58%|
|13|Clarke County|54.00%|46.00%|51.85%|
|14|Clay County|79.10%|20.90%|79.10%|
|15|Cleburne County|88.20%|11.80%|91.25%|
|16|Coffee County|74.00%|26.00%|66.88%|
|17|Colbert County|66.10%|33.90%|75.56%|
|18|Conecuh County|51.50%|48.50%|50.31%|
|19|Coosa County|65.20%|34.80%|65.53%|
|20|Covington County|81.50%|18.50%|81.60%|
|21|Crenshaw County|71.00%|29.00%|70.74%|
|22|Cullman County|86.30%|13.70%|89.11%|
|23|Dale County|69.60%|30.40%|66.09%|
|24|Dallas County|29.80%|70.20%|26.94%|
|25|DeKalb County|82.00%|18.00%|76.15%|
|26|Elmore County|72.10%|27.90%|71.09%|
|27|Escambia County|65.90%|34.10%|59.86%|
|28|Etowah County|72.30%|27.70%|75.15%|
|29|Fayette County|81.10%|18.90%|83.03%|
|30|Franklin County|79.10%|20.90%|73.43%|
|31|Geneva County|83.00%|17.00%|81.23%|
|32|Greene County|17.10%|82.90%|16.62%|
|33|Hale County|39.20%|60.80%|40.39%|
|34|Henry County|69.00%|31.00%|69.07%|
|35|Houston County|68.50%|31.50%|63.67%|
|36|Jackson County|80.50%|19.50%|85.82%|
|37|Jefferson County|41.30%|58.70%|48.06%|
|38|Lamar County|85.00%|15.00%|85.34%|
|39|Lauderdale County|68.40%|31.60%|81.75%|
|40|Lawrence County|73.60%|26.40%|74.73%|
|41|Lee County|57.80%|42.20%|63.01%|
|42|Limestone County|68.20%|31.80%|73.08%|
|43|Lowndes County|25.90%|74.10%|27.22%|
|44|Macon County|17.00%|83.00%|16.32%|
|45|Madison County|51.20%|48.80%|61.19%|
|46|Marengo County|47.60%|52.40%|43.34%|
|47|Marion County|86.60%|13.40%|88.93%|
|48|Marshall County|81.40%|18.60%|76.49%|
|49|Mobile County|52.80%|47.20%|54.65%|
|50|Monroe County|55.60%|44.40%|52.27%|
|51|Montgomery County|32.60%|67.40%|32.04%|
|52|Morgan County|71.70%|28.30%|71.49%|
|53|Perry County|24.40%|75.60%|27.55%|
|54|Pickens County|56.50%|43.50%|52.64%|
|55|Pike County|56.40%|43.60%|54.64%|
|56|Randolph County|78.10%|21.90%|75.70%|
|57|Russell County|44.20%|55.80%|42.08%|
|58|Shelby County|68.00%|32.00%|72.96%|
|59|St. Clair County|80.00%|20.00%|82.28%|
|60|Sumter County|24.80%|75.20%|23.79%|
|61|Talladega County|61.10%|38.90%|61.76%|
|62|Tallapoosa County|70.10%|29.90%|68.39%|
|63|Tuscaloosa County|55.00%|45.00%|59.41%|
|64|Walker County|80.70%|19.30%|86.31%|
|65|Washington County|70.00%|30.00%|66.72%|
|66|Wilcox County|30.30%|69.70%|27.04%|
|67|Winston County|88.40%|11.60%|91.75%|
**ANALYSIS**
White voters overwhelmingly supported Senator Tuberville. The coefficient of determination for white population in each county and its support for Tuberville was roughly 0.96, indicating that 96% of the variance in voting pattern could be predicted by the whiteness of the population.
**OUTLIERS**
Using a line of best fit, I calculated the following residuals, indicating that certain counties had higher or lower than predicted support for Tuberville given their demographics. Tuberville underperformed in the following counties:
|+|County|Residual|
|:-|:-|:-|
|1|Lauderdale County|-11.88%|
|2|Madison County|-9.83%|
|3|Colbert County|-8.38%|
|4|Jefferson County|-7.44%|
|5|Autauga County|-7.14%|
|6|Cherokee County|-5.64%|
|7|Baldwin County|-5.58%|
|8|Perry County|-5.15%|
|9|Lee County|-4.94%|
|10|Tuscaloosa County|-4.37%|
|11|Shelby County|-4.05%|
|12|Limestone County|-3.96%|
|13|Walker County|-3.85%|
|14|Jackson County|-3.59%|
|15|Lowndes County|-3.34%|
And overperformed in these:
|+|County|Residual|
|:-|:-|:-|
|1|Coffee County|7.64%|
|2|Barbour County|7.10%|
|3|DeKalb County|6.96%|
|4|Franklin County|6.61%|
|5|Escambia County|6.11%|
|6|Marshall County|6.05%|
|7|Chilton County|5.52%|
|8|Blount County|5.48%|
|9|Houston County|5.14%|
|10|Butler County|4.18%|
|11|Dale County|3.98%|
|12|Washington County|3.79%|
|13|Bibb County|3.71%|
|14|Randolph County|3.48%|
|15|Pickens County|3.47%|
[EDIT: it would be great if an Alabamian with knowledge of these counties can offer insight as to why Tuberville fared better or worse in some counties given their demographics!]
Now tell me the percentage of Auburn vs Alabama fans. That’ll be the real support percentage.
What’s the coefficient of correlation for this?
Doesn’t that just speak to the fact that the black and Hispanic populations in America typically support the Democrat by a wide margin?
There are counties in Alabama that are 90% white? Why does that feel crazy?
There’s little of value here. Black people vote Democrat 90+ percent of the time. The individual Senator and state are essentially irrelevant.
Well this Auburn fan won’t be voting for that buffoon who held up military promotions and doesn’t know the 3 branches of government.
Fun fact, Tuberville’s primary residence is in Florida, and he doesn’t actually live in Alabama.
I would love the see the correlation coefficient on that one. I dream of finding associations this strong in my own studies lol.
Now look at % voting Democrat for the last 50 years compared to % black. It won’t be much different. Point being it’s not Tuberville specifically
So beautiful! Not bland and basic at all!
This is a great piece of data-gathering, plotted perfectly. Clear hypothesis and persuasive.
I for one am white, live in Alabama, and hate this man more than anything in the world. Though, if you’re looking for insider trading techniques, Tommy is the guy. He has made more money on the stock market than any other Senator, true to his lawless cheating lying nature. That’s because he’s a millionaire who lives in Florida and doesn’t give a shit about you/me at all… Sounds a lot like another person as well 🤔
Not a surprise at all. The US electorate is very racialized along party lines, but especially so in the Deep South
That guy is such a fucking moron
Wow! It’s hard to find social data anywhere with that strong correlation.
bro this shit is basically y=x