Data: Cook Political Report (CPR) Electoral College Race Ratings assess the competitiveness of the states and districts that comprise the 538 electoral votes. To be elected president, a candidate needs to win 270 electoral votes. Competitiveness is determined by several factors, including the state and district’s political makeup, the political environment in the state and nationally, and interviews with campaign professionals. When sourcing the CPR Race Ratings, please refer to our terms of use. To inquire about API access and licensing, please submit a request.
Methodology: Data management in R and Electoral College Vote stacks explored with ggplot2. Final image assembly, annotations, and titling were done in Adobe Illustrator.
It’s pretty, but I still find it a bit hard to judge exactly what the relative size of the advantage is because the data utilizes two axes. Still find the simple [line chart](https://www.270towin.com/) with the arrow in the center marking 270 to be easier.
It’s weird that there are no states in either “lean” column.
What are the biggest differences between this prediction and the 2020 results? NH being likely blue and NV being tossup (rather than likely blue or lean blue) stand out to me. This is also the first time I’ve seen OH solid red – in the early Obama era it was swing.
Style over substance imo. But it’s super neat NY is in the shape of NY
Just didn’t know what to do with Nebraska’s 2nd district, eh?
Kidding. Really great visual!
Is there anything positive to say about Alabama?
Wonder if that changed any after the debate.
A shame that the Electoral College system essentially makes the presidential votes useless for everyone who lives in any of the Solid Dem or Solid GOP states
Well at least the Toss Ups aren’t “smaller”
Jesus Christ, Ohio, quit being an Indiana.
What’s interesting is that Utah (and a lot of Red states) are only solidly red due to gerrymandering of voting districts. If districts were split more fairly then some electoral college votes would go blue and you could get a split state
FL and TX seeming more and more like a toss up now.
I didn’t realize how many votes PA had. Never really thought of it as a particularly populated state.
How about we find a new system that doesn’t entirely rely on how a series of statistical ties break?
I strongly dislike this because it discourages voting for opposition in “strong” states. Everyone needs to vote and see how it shakes out.
EXCEPT a balanced lever is not a clear weigh to present the relative weighting of Electoral College votes in a time where swing/battle states can dramatically swing an election with their ‘weight’. The further something is away from the fulcrum, the greater its influence. That is, Force is equal to Mass times Distance.
I do understand what you are trying to convey here, but your way of doing it makes my engineering brain hurt. Every point of the 438 is equal, but the ones in California and Idaho are pretty well locked in by overwhelming party preference in those states, and thus should be hanging out in the middle where they have virtually no influence or contribution … relative to the swing states. Whereas, MI, WI, PA, NC, GA, AZ, and NV have an overwhelming impact on which way the bar will topple.
I perfer showing the population as wel
It looks like a pharmaceutical ad in a magazine
North Carolina and Georgia being toss ups?! Oh gag
I miss living in the old Ohio, the battleground state. Take me back
My conspiracy theory is that they see a swing to one side but do not report it for two reasons:
1) They do not want to be wrong 2) They do not want to influence the outcome ( by changing people’s motivation to vote)
Hot take from a right leaning independent in TX: Kamala flips TX.
Calling BS on Minnesota, it bongs in the solid dem column.
Wasnt the last time it was red for electoral college like…. The 80’s?
And it’s crazy that some of those swing states the margins might be in the several thousands
TX and FL are way too good at voter suppression for us to expect any upsets there.
Too bad popular vote means squat. If it didn’t there’d only be one Republican president on the list 30 years or so.
Putting NV as a toss up will never make sense to me. NV went for Obama, Clinton, and Biden. It has not gone for Trump once. There’s zero reason to believe that all of a sudden, after Hilary’s abysmal display, it would flip.
Fuck, this is terrifying that it’s this close.
I like it, but I think it’d be worth it to have the EC value for each of the swing states shown since that’s the most pertinent information.
why is ME on their 3 times? i get the two districts but its also under likely dem as ME
It really feels like Pennsylvania will decide the election. That’s where the biggest battle is currently and both campaigns are hyper focused there
TX “likely GOP” tickles me in a way I’ve never felt before
Love our system that makes voting meaningless unless you’re in a swing state.
You guys have such a shit system.
The GOP have been rigging the census numbers for decades. No way there are that many people in some of those states.
Texas is going red.
Too much talk here about wink-wink-nod-nod and elections. Especially given the. most. corrupt. (and MAGA) State AG in the union.
37 comments
Data: Cook Political Report (CPR) Electoral College Race Ratings assess the competitiveness of the states and districts that comprise the 538 electoral votes. To be elected president, a candidate needs to win 270 electoral votes. Competitiveness is determined by several factors, including the state and district’s political makeup, the political environment in the state and nationally, and interviews with campaign professionals. When sourcing the CPR Race Ratings, please refer to our terms of use. To inquire about API access and licensing, please submit a request.
[https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/presidential-race-ratings](https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/presidential-race-ratings)
Methodology: Data management in R and Electoral College Vote stacks explored with ggplot2. Final image assembly, annotations, and titling were done in Adobe Illustrator.
It’s pretty, but I still find it a bit hard to judge exactly what the relative size of the advantage is because the data utilizes two axes. Still find the simple [line chart](https://www.270towin.com/) with the arrow in the center marking 270 to be easier.
It’s weird that there are no states in either “lean” column.
What are the biggest differences between this prediction and the 2020 results? NH being likely blue and NV being tossup (rather than likely blue or lean blue) stand out to me. This is also the first time I’ve seen OH solid red – in the early Obama era it was swing.
Style over substance imo. But it’s super neat NY is in the shape of NY
Just didn’t know what to do with Nebraska’s 2nd district, eh?
Kidding. Really great visual!
Is there anything positive to say about Alabama?
Wonder if that changed any after the debate.
A shame that the Electoral College system essentially makes the presidential votes useless for everyone who lives in any of the Solid Dem or Solid GOP states
Well at least the Toss Ups aren’t “smaller”
Jesus Christ, Ohio, quit being an Indiana.
What’s interesting is that Utah (and a lot of Red states) are only solidly red due to gerrymandering of voting districts. If districts were split more fairly then some electoral college votes would go blue and you could get a split state
FL and TX seeming more and more like a toss up now.
I didn’t realize how many votes PA had. Never really thought of it as a particularly populated state.
How about we find a new system that doesn’t entirely rely on how a series of statistical ties break?
I strongly dislike this because it discourages voting for opposition in “strong” states. Everyone needs to vote and see how it shakes out.
EXCEPT a balanced lever is not a clear weigh to present the relative weighting of Electoral College votes in a time where swing/battle states can dramatically swing an election with their ‘weight’. The further something is away from the fulcrum, the greater its influence. That is, Force is equal to Mass times Distance.
I do understand what you are trying to convey here, but your way of doing it makes my engineering brain hurt. Every point of the 438 is equal, but the ones in California and Idaho are pretty well locked in by overwhelming party preference in those states, and thus should be hanging out in the middle where they have virtually no influence or contribution … relative to the swing states. Whereas, MI, WI, PA, NC, GA, AZ, and NV have an overwhelming impact on which way the bar will topple.
I perfer showing the population as wel
It looks like a pharmaceutical ad in a magazine
North Carolina and Georgia being toss ups?! Oh gag
I miss living in the old Ohio, the battleground state. Take me back
My conspiracy theory is that they see a swing to one side but do not report it for two reasons:
1) They do not want to be wrong
2) They do not want to influence the outcome ( by changing people’s motivation to vote)
Hot take from a right leaning independent in TX: Kamala flips TX.
Calling BS on Minnesota, it bongs in the solid dem column.
Wasnt the last time it was red for electoral college like…. The 80’s?
And it’s crazy that some of those swing states the margins might be in the several thousands
TX and FL are way too good at voter suppression for us to expect any upsets there.
Too bad popular vote means squat. If it didn’t there’d only be one Republican president on the list 30 years or so.
Putting NV as a toss up will never make sense to me. NV went for Obama, Clinton, and Biden. It has not gone for Trump once. There’s zero reason to believe that all of a sudden, after Hilary’s abysmal display, it would flip.
Fuck, this is terrifying that it’s this close.
I like it, but I think it’d be worth it to have the EC value for each of the swing states shown since that’s the most pertinent information.
why is ME on their 3 times? i get the two districts but its also under likely dem as ME
It really feels like Pennsylvania will decide the election. That’s where the biggest battle is currently and both campaigns are hyper focused there
TX “likely GOP” tickles me in a way I’ve never felt before
Love our system that makes voting meaningless unless you’re in a swing state.
You guys have such a shit system.
The GOP have been rigging the census numbers for decades. No way there are that many people in some of those states.
Texas is going red.
Too much talk here about wink-wink-nod-nod and elections. Especially given the. most. corrupt. (and MAGA) State AG in the union.