This site is meant to be a politically neutral way to “check the pulse” on thhe presidential race. It updates every five minutes with data from Metaculus(Scientific forecasting platform), betting markets(PredictIt, Polymarket), pollsters (aggregated by 538), and news. Please let me know what you think!
Interesting, but “Studies show” is a bit of a bold claim when basing it on one study based on one election year. Do you happen to know if there are more studies done on this?
Edit: especially when the conclusion of that study says:
>In 2008, FiveThirtyEight, a debiased poll-based forecast, offered to the general public a more accurate forecast than raw poll numbers or raw prediction market prices. But, the analysis here shows that were Intrade’s prices debiased, they would have provided a more accurate forecast
“Glad to hear she will handedly win so i dont have to waste my time voting” Hillary supporters
I just wish people would stop using a picture of him from 9 years ago as his official image.
Buddy your github commit history looks fucked, remember to touch grass and stay hydrated bro!
“DataIsBeautiful” 45+56=101% lmao
Regardless of the veracity of the data or it’s interpretation, it’s a nice looking tool. Good job OP
101% total?
yeah okay, man.
You really should have your sources more apparent given the severity of the subject in my opinion. Also the site “Will trump win?” Is also a little biased….
Trump has about a 60% of winning the electoral college according to nate silver.
The Republicans have a built in advantage with the electoral college and democrats have to win by 2 to 3 points just to break even.
It’s absolutely not beautiful data to suggest that betting data is comparable to polling data.
Betting data may turn out to be more accurate in hindsight, but it’s certainly more arbitrary than polling.
Also, your polling data is straight from 538?
Finally, national polls are fine, but it’s not who is ahead in the national polls, its who is ahead in enough states to get 270 electoral votes.
In other words, you’re showing two completely meaningless statistics even if one is slightly more “real” than the other.
270 to win and 538 seem to have stopped giving predictions on who is ahead in battleground states. I get that they’re too close to call conclusively, but we of course all want a who is more likely to win based on battleground states if the election was today and polling per state was accurate since that will tell who is likely to win.
Based on current state polling from 538 filling in the swing states from 270 to win, here’s the outcome: [https://www.270towin.com/map-images/7N0Y9](https://www.270towin.com/map-images/7N0Y9)
How likely is that? I dunno, but it makes more sense to me to ask who is currently ahead in each of the battleground states and make a prediction based on that rather than national polling or betting data.
Data is not beautiful on this one. Especially from one source. You’ve shown your color.
Polls are meaningless bullshit. The only one that matters is the one in November. Do not get complacent, and vote.
14 comments
Check it out! [https://willtrumpwin.com/](https://willtrumpwin.com/)
This site is meant to be a politically neutral way to “check the pulse” on thhe presidential race. It updates every five minutes with data from Metaculus(Scientific forecasting platform), betting markets(PredictIt, Polymarket), pollsters (aggregated by 538), and news. Please let me know what you think!
Interesting, but “Studies show” is a bit of a bold claim when basing it on one study based on one election year. Do you happen to know if there are more studies done on this?
Edit: especially when the conclusion of that study says:
>In 2008, FiveThirtyEight, a debiased poll-based forecast, offered to the general public a more accurate forecast than raw poll numbers or raw prediction market prices. But, the analysis here shows that were Intrade’s prices debiased, they would have provided a more accurate forecast
“Glad to hear she will handedly win so i dont have to waste my time voting” Hillary supporters
I just wish people would stop using a picture of him from 9 years ago as his official image.
Buddy your github commit history looks fucked, remember to touch grass and stay hydrated bro!
“DataIsBeautiful” 45+56=101% lmao
Regardless of the veracity of the data or it’s interpretation, it’s a nice looking tool. Good job OP
101% total?
yeah okay, man.
You really should have your sources more apparent given the severity of the subject in my opinion. Also the site “Will trump win?” Is also a little biased….
Trump has about a 60% of winning the electoral college according to nate silver.
The Republicans have a built in advantage with the electoral college and democrats have to win by 2 to 3 points just to break even.
Always an uphill battle for dems
Seems similar to [https://electionbettingodds.com/President2024.html](https://electionbettingodds.com/President2024.html) ?
It’s absolutely not beautiful data to suggest that betting data is comparable to polling data.
Betting data may turn out to be more accurate in hindsight, but it’s certainly more arbitrary than polling.
Also, your polling data is straight from 538?
Finally, national polls are fine, but it’s not who is ahead in the national polls, its who is ahead in enough states to get 270 electoral votes.
In other words, you’re showing two completely meaningless statistics even if one is slightly more “real” than the other.
270 to win and 538 seem to have stopped giving predictions on who is ahead in battleground states. I get that they’re too close to call conclusively, but we of course all want a who is more likely to win based on battleground states if the election was today and polling per state was accurate since that will tell who is likely to win.
Based on current state polling from 538 filling in the swing states from 270 to win, here’s the outcome:
[https://www.270towin.com/map-images/7N0Y9](https://www.270towin.com/map-images/7N0Y9)
How likely is that? I dunno, but it makes more sense to me to ask who is currently ahead in each of the battleground states and make a prediction based on that rather than national polling or betting data.
Data is not beautiful on this one. Especially from one source. You’ve shown your color.
Polls are meaningless bullshit. The only one that matters is the one in November. Do not get complacent, and vote.