Of course, not even a question. No government in Russia will be elected if they’d promise to surrender and leave Ukraine.
Probably would be a great way to exit
There will be a power vacuum so there will most likely be a power struggle, each sub-leader wanting to be the next president, agreements made, agreements broken, possibly the military taking one side but rosgvardia taking another. It could be a complete shitshow or a relatively smooth process and impossible to say who would come out on top and what their policy would be.
Honestly I think it’s 50/50. Doesn’t seem like it’s putin’s war only
Unfortunately, yes, they will continue Putin got into power by promising victory in Chechnya and the one who succeeds Putin will try to win the russians to his side by promising victory in Ukraine.
«Neither have any involvement in politics, while he refuses to name his grandchildren in public»
— i think, NOW his grandchildren must be grateful for that
Think so.
Russia as it is now doesn’t survive Putin.
Even Navalny saw Ukraine as a vassal state. The only way russia leaves is if they get booted out with shells and bullets.
Can go either way.
3 options:
* No, in case of a reasonable leader who wishes the best for his country.
* Yes, but only temporarily. Most likely in my opinion. Due to both external and internal reasons, it would be unsustainable.
* Yes, long term. Would require a high level of stability in Russia, which I highly doubt there would be.
It depends on who takes over.
Just do it !! Do not ask
I think the war would end quite fast if the old fart died.
Yes. But then the power struggles would begin and all h*ll will break loose in Russia.
They would continue and then probably lose. There would be a power vacuum, and generals will probably try and get power. Overall, the front would collapse in a month because no one will care about Ukraine
Almost certainly there would be a massive pullback of loyal/elite units to protect and consolidate power internally and that would lead to large advances by Ukraine. What happens after that depends on who wins.
Not likely, it’s more likely that all the oligarchs would start fighting amongst each other for power. It’s going to destabilize the country whether he dies or whatever happens to him. Though I would like to see him lose power, I think Russia is going to have a lot of problems for generations. Problems they’ve brought upon themselves.
The people’s feelings are totally irrelevant and they know it.
Apart from pootin there are no leaders, only self-interested factions. And all factions have been carefully curated to be unable to stand on their own, and to be mistrustful and hostile towards all other factions.
Among the factions are the oligarchs. Their wealth gives them power, but their wealth depends on a leader who keeps the money flowing into their pockets. And the war has not been good for most of them.
The only hope I see for a less-bad outcome is if the oligarchs can come together and install a leader who promises to enrich them by dialing back the war and trying to stabilize the economy.
That’s a real stretch, but it might be brought about through secret deals with the West: if you ease up on sanctions, we’ll do (???). Of course none of us will know the details or have any say in the matter
I don’t think he can die. Aren’t him and his buddy, Kim Jong Un, immortal?
Next leader will likely use him as a scapegoat to lift sanctions and will shit on him to boost their own popularity. As happened time and time again, every next leader shits on the last one and blames all faults on him. Literally the oldest russian tradition, it’s how they were conceived as a country 900 years ago, shitting on Kievan Rus they once belonged to
If Putin dies today, it will probably be *because* they don’t want the war to go on.
Good question. What will the West do, if RUS is losing.???!
If putin were to die; i’d go celebrate with a beer
“Russian people”? I think a large part already don’t want the war. Question is if what follows after Putin and if they feel the war benefits their interests. Both the sanctions and the risk of uprising speak against the continuation of the war.
Nope it’s his personal vanity project.
If they were told to they would.
Hopefully, they would be too busy eating each other alive
🪱🇷🇺🐊
If the rumors about his health are even partially true it would be wise for him to anoint a successor and have them take over when his term expires next year.
Power hungry madmen often lack that kind of foresight though…
When shit rolls down hill, it really rolls down hill esp in Ruzzia…
WE DO NOT WANT PUTIN DEAD. WE WANT THOSE NUKES IN THE “STABILIST” OF CIRCUMSTANCES.
Absolutely. Putin is just the face of this war at this point. The war is very convenient and/or profitable for many other high ranking Russian officials and oligarchs who all want to keep going.
There’s *a lot* of people waiting for him to kick the bucked. And a lot of those are *even more* hawkish than Putin and way more hostile to the West (think Strelkov although rn he’s in prison for ‘extremism’ for saying Russia doesn’t cause *enough* terror in Ukraine, publicly saying that Putin is weak, ironic lol).
And since to this date there’s basically no democratic Russian opposition that’s not in exile, when this old fart dies things will either remain as they are now or some successor will very likely escalate even more. Depending on who will come on top after the massive infighting that will inevitably come to fill the power vacuum. The only chance to change this fact is a massive revolution in Russia and the exiled politicians coming back. But seeing the state of Russian society, I feel like there’s zero chance this will ever happen. After centuries of the Tzars and then the USSR they’re in that shit just way to deep for anything to really change.
The only way I see how the Ukrainian war could end after Putins’ death is a literal implosion of the federation, war lord style.
Natural causes like falling out a window from Russians tallest building.
I find it hard to believe that any new leader, who would certainly start with a precarious power base would want to continue the war given the inevitable economic problems that are being stored up. Even Putin knows it can’t continue too much longer. The question is what are they willing to give up. I could see a new leader going back to pre 2022 lines in donbas in return for keeping Crimea and their post 2014 donbas spoils. I could even see them give up all of the donbas. But I’m not sure a new leader would give up Crimea as that would look like a huge defeat. I also think they should be forced to give it all up but not sure the west is willing to do what it takes to help Ukraine achieve this.
It depends on the ability to get the public on board for withdrawal of Russian troops and dump the blame on Putin and other rivals.
If Putin’s replacement continues the war, they will eventually face the same no-win situation.
The most likely outcome is Russia losing but coming out with some confessions that the public would accept.
Putin is not in control of Russia. He just do what the unthinking majority favor. It’s a disaster which does not have simple solution.
In the tone of current world events, a bullet in the forehead would be a pretty natural course of action if you ask me
Russian people don’t care and rulers don’t care what Russian people think,
Stop bothering what Russian people want. They always want same thing as their beloved leader. Provided he/she abuses them the way they like.
Nope
I’m sure a completely level-headed Politburo would emerge, with a focus on returning to democracy and open trade with the West.
39 comments
Of course, not even a question. No government in Russia will be elected if they’d promise to surrender and leave Ukraine.
Probably would be a great way to exit
There will be a power vacuum so there will most likely be a power struggle, each sub-leader wanting to be the next president, agreements made, agreements broken, possibly the military taking one side but rosgvardia taking another. It could be a complete shitshow or a relatively smooth process and impossible to say who would come out on top and what their policy would be.
Honestly I think it’s 50/50. Doesn’t seem like it’s putin’s war only
Unfortunately, yes, they will continue Putin got into power by promising victory in Chechnya and the one who succeeds Putin will try to win the russians to his side by promising victory in Ukraine.
«Neither have any involvement in politics, while he refuses to name his grandchildren in public»
— i think, NOW his grandchildren must be grateful for that
Think so.
Russia as it is now doesn’t survive Putin.
Even Navalny saw Ukraine as a vassal state. The only way russia leaves is if they get booted out with shells and bullets.
Can go either way.
3 options:
* No, in case of a reasonable leader who wishes the best for his country.
* Yes, but only temporarily. Most likely in my opinion. Due to both external and internal reasons, it would be unsustainable.
* Yes, long term. Would require a high level of stability in Russia, which I highly doubt there would be.
It depends on who takes over.
Just do it !! Do not ask
I think the war would end quite fast if the old fart died.
Yes. But then the power struggles would begin and all h*ll will break loose in Russia.
They would continue and then probably lose. There would be a power vacuum, and generals will probably try and get power. Overall, the front would collapse in a month because no one will care about Ukraine
Almost certainly there would be a massive pullback of loyal/elite units to protect and consolidate power internally and that would lead to large advances by Ukraine. What happens after that depends on who wins.
Not likely, it’s more likely that all the oligarchs would start fighting amongst each other for power. It’s going to destabilize the country whether he dies or whatever happens to him. Though I would like to see him lose power, I think Russia is going to have a lot of problems for generations. Problems they’ve brought upon themselves.
The people’s feelings are totally irrelevant and they know it.
Apart from pootin there are no leaders, only self-interested factions. And all factions have been carefully curated to be unable to stand on their own, and to be mistrustful and hostile towards all other factions.
Among the factions are the oligarchs. Their wealth gives them power, but their wealth depends on a leader who keeps the money flowing into their pockets. And the war has not been good for most of them.
The only hope I see for a less-bad outcome is if the oligarchs can come together and install a leader who promises to enrich them by dialing back the war and trying to stabilize the economy.
That’s a real stretch, but it might be brought about through secret deals with the West: if you ease up on sanctions, we’ll do (???). Of course none of us will know the details or have any say in the matter
I don’t think he can die. Aren’t him and his buddy, Kim Jong Un, immortal?
Next leader will likely use him as a scapegoat to lift sanctions and will shit on him to boost their own popularity. As happened time and time again, every next leader shits on the last one and blames all faults on him. Literally the oldest russian tradition, it’s how they were conceived as a country 900 years ago, shitting on Kievan Rus they once belonged to
If Putin dies today, it will probably be *because* they don’t want the war to go on.
Good question. What will the West do, if RUS is losing.???!
If putin were to die; i’d go celebrate with a beer
“Russian people”? I think a large part already don’t want the war. Question is if what follows after Putin and if they feel the war benefits their interests. Both the sanctions and the risk of uprising speak against the continuation of the war.
Nope it’s his personal vanity project.
If they were told to they would.
Hopefully, they would be too busy eating each other alive
🪱🇷🇺🐊
If the rumors about his health are even partially true it would be wise for him to anoint a successor and have them take over when his term expires next year.
Power hungry madmen often lack that kind of foresight though…
When shit rolls down hill, it really rolls down hill esp in Ruzzia…
WE DO NOT WANT PUTIN DEAD. WE WANT THOSE NUKES IN THE “STABILIST” OF CIRCUMSTANCES.
Absolutely. Putin is just the face of this war at this point. The war is very convenient and/or profitable for many other high ranking Russian officials and oligarchs who all want to keep going.
There’s *a lot* of people waiting for him to kick the bucked. And a lot of those are *even more* hawkish than Putin and way more hostile to the West (think Strelkov although rn he’s in prison for ‘extremism’ for saying Russia doesn’t cause *enough* terror in Ukraine, publicly saying that Putin is weak, ironic lol).
And since to this date there’s basically no democratic Russian opposition that’s not in exile, when this old fart dies things will either remain as they are now or some successor will very likely escalate even more. Depending on who will come on top after the massive infighting that will inevitably come to fill the power vacuum. The only chance to change this fact is a massive revolution in Russia and the exiled politicians coming back. But seeing the state of Russian society, I feel like there’s zero chance this will ever happen. After centuries of the Tzars and then the USSR they’re in that shit just way to deep for anything to really change.
The only way I see how the Ukrainian war could end after Putins’ death is a literal implosion of the federation, war lord style.
Natural causes like falling out a window from Russians tallest building.
I find it hard to believe that any new leader, who would certainly start with a precarious power base would want to continue the war given the inevitable economic problems that are being stored up. Even Putin knows it can’t continue too much longer.
The question is what are they willing to give up. I could see a new leader going back to pre 2022 lines in donbas in return for keeping Crimea and their post 2014 donbas spoils.
I could even see them give up all of the donbas. But I’m not sure a new leader would give up Crimea as that would look like a huge defeat.
I also think they should be forced to give it all up but not sure the west is willing to do what it takes to help Ukraine achieve this.
It depends on the ability to get the public on board for withdrawal of Russian troops and dump the blame on Putin and other rivals.
If Putin’s replacement continues the war, they will eventually face the same no-win situation.
The most likely outcome is Russia losing but coming out with some confessions that the public would accept.
Putin is not in control of Russia. He just do what the unthinking majority favor.
It’s a disaster which does not have simple solution.
In the tone of current world events, a bullet in the forehead would be a pretty natural course of action if you ask me
Russian people don’t care and rulers don’t care what Russian people think,
Stop bothering what Russian people want. They always want same thing as their beloved leader. Provided he/she abuses them the way they like.
Nope
I’m sure a completely level-headed Politburo would emerge, with a focus on returning to democracy and open trade with the West.
^^/s