Brandenburg has been an SPD stronghold since reunification. It takes very strong other factors to make a voter switch party affiliation after you have been voting for the same party for 30 years. It’s easier to vote for a different party in the next election if you are a younger voter, without a strong party-adhesion.
In many European countries we see the same pattern even in national elections. The traditional big parties of power are still carried by older, loyal voters, while this party-adhesion has broken down for younger voters who move from party to party in each election, leading to the proliferation of multiple smaller, more narrow-focused (niche, if I may) parties. I’m not sure how much it holds outside Europe – you definitely also need to control for the effects of voting systems on voter behaviour.
Different generations have a different voting behavior, thats nothing new.
A very short “nice” answer is: party linkage is something that began to fade away in the recent decades. Before that, it was very common for people to vote for party X no matter what. This behavior didn’t die but litteraly the people who behaved like that are slowly dying.
A very short “not so nice” answer is: CDU/CSU and SPD and known for taking care about pensions and therefor older people vote for them.
1) In Brandenburg many old people wanted to hinder AfD from becoming the strongest party, so they voted for SPD because those were (lately) the only party that was close to AfD in the polls.
2) Ministerpräsident of Brandenburg is an SPD guy, and probably some voted SPD because they wanted to keep him.
3) Between Europawahl and now things have happened which may explain part of the vote. For example during the summer the Bundestag voted for the biggest round of pension presents that has ever been in Germany – led by the SPD.
Growing up in the 40’s and50’s, the older generation may also still remember some of the fallout from the NSDAP reign and I suppose they are not so keen on having that again. AFD is strong in the super young, who are more easily fooled by anger and hatred
5 comments
What is this agregator? Seems interesting to poke around data.
A big part of it is stronger [party-adhesion](https://www.bpb.de/themen/deutsche-einheit/lange-wege-der-deutschen-einheit/501213/parteibindung-parteiidentifikation/). The most powerful predictor for which party you will vote in the next election is which party you have always voted for.
Brandenburg has been an SPD stronghold since reunification. It takes very strong other factors to make a voter switch party affiliation after you have been voting for the same party for 30 years. It’s easier to vote for a different party in the next election if you are a younger voter, without a strong party-adhesion.
In many European countries we see the same pattern even in national elections. The traditional big parties of power are still carried by older, loyal voters, while this party-adhesion has broken down for younger voters who move from party to party in each election, leading to the proliferation of multiple smaller, more narrow-focused (niche, if I may) parties. I’m not sure how much it holds outside Europe – you definitely also need to control for the effects of voting systems on voter behaviour.
Different generations have a different voting behavior, thats nothing new.
A very short “nice” answer is: party linkage is something that began to fade away in the recent decades. Before that, it was very common for people to vote for party X no matter what. This behavior didn’t die but litteraly the people who behaved like that are slowly dying.
A very short “not so nice” answer is: CDU/CSU and SPD and known for taking care about pensions and therefor older people vote for them.
1) In Brandenburg many old people wanted to hinder AfD from becoming the strongest party, so they voted for SPD because those were (lately) the only party that was close to AfD in the polls.
2) Ministerpräsident of Brandenburg is an SPD guy, and probably some voted SPD because they wanted to keep him.
3) Between Europawahl and now things have happened which may explain part of the vote. For example during the summer the Bundestag voted for the biggest round of pension presents that has ever been in Germany – led by the SPD.
Growing up in the 40’s and50’s, the older generation may also still remember some of the fallout from the NSDAP reign and I suppose they are not so keen on having that again. AFD is strong in the super young, who are more easily fooled by anger and hatred