I've attached part 9 of my ongoing blog series on the Ukraine war.
In part 8, which I posted earlier this month, I looked at open source data to estimate casualties on both sides and tried to reconcile estimates. I conclude that realistic estimates
of each others casualties are validated by multiple data points – for e.g. Russian MOD estimates of Ukrainian casualties are actually than many pro Russia estimates. I conclude that
the balance of forces, will result in winter being an opportune time for a Russian offensive.
In part 9 ( link below) I do a deep dive into the balance of forces in each sector at brigade level and casualty trends, to understand what has been happening in each sector and what is likely to. I look at the role of logistics and problems with leadership arising from officer casualties.
For those who haven't seen my blog – I am from India, live in India and am retired and independent. I blog on Indian national security, startups and current wars incl. Ukraine. I have done business in both Russia and Ukraine, have lived in Russia, speak Russian and therefore access media on both sides. I am an amateur, but like to bring the same logic and data based analysis to my writing, as I did in the corporate world. I avoid politics and focus on military operations, while looking at angles not covered in the mainstream media. I write to express and educate myself. The blog is subscriber and ad free.
https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2024/09/ukraine-war-part-9-sector-wise-analysis.html
Posted by Dean_46