Saudi Arabia ready to abandon $100 crude target to take back market share

3 comments

1. Submission Statement: Saudi Arabia plans to increase production by 83 thousand barrels per month, each month until December 2025. This will result in an extra 1 million barrels per day of production.

    

   OPEC was officially targeting a goal of $100 per barrel, however prices in September have so far averaged just $70 per barrel despite active conflict between Israel and Hamas, Hezbollah, and (to a limited extent) Iran. Prices have been kept in check by increasing non opec production, low demand from China, and from some opec members exceeding their quotas.

    

   This increase in production will almost certainly lead to a decline in prices. The last time Saudi Arabia increased production to take back market share was 2014, prices fell to below $40 a barrel.

    

   Lower prices will be beneficial for most of the world, but will hurt oil producers. Russia will be negatively affected due to its reliance on oil exports, and its need to fund it’s was in Ukraine.

2. https://archive.ph/qk2ug

3. Timing is surprising to me. Likely helps Harris a bit and Ukraine a lot, while hurting Trump a bit and hurting putin a lot.

   Will be interesting to see how quickly prices move. I’d imagine increase in supply will take a while to hit the market, but you’d think the traders would price this in more quickly.

   I guess MBS must be serious because he could help both of his pals by waiting 6 months.